We are approaching the conclusion to episode 1 of what we hope is a 3 part winter storm series. This first storm is certainly nothing spectacular, but this is the event marking winter's return since it continues to appear like a really good stretch of conditions is upon us. We still have particulars to sort through regarding the next two systems but both appear on the table and northern Vermont continues to appear like a favorable location for good results.
Snow Friday afternoon and evening will allow this event to meet at least the low end of our expectations and I am feeling better about the notion an area of high pressure will be enough to gradually eliminate much of our cloudiness on Saturday. After a blustery start, it will turn into a very nice late January day with near 30 degree temperatures near the MRG base and gradually decreasing winds. In other words, I expect to see those sun deck chairs occupied tomorrow afternoon beers in hand ! We might also be greeted with a bit of sunshine on Sunday, but clouds will quickly overspread northern Vermont as episode 2 in our 3 part series approaches. Sunday will be another comfortable day with teens in the morning and near 30 degree temperatures again expected in the afternoon.
As of this update, models are approaching a consensus with episode or storm number 2. It's a nice looking but quick moving system that will be intensifying as it speeds along a projected course that would take it over southeast New England. The track of this storm has shifted marginally eastward but not enough to take much of northern Vermont out of what appears to be a narrow zone of decent snowfall. This snowfall should again (much like the storm Thursday evening) begin within an hour or two of 6-7 pm and fall at a rather steady rate throughout the overnight. So long as we keep the track of this strengthening area of low pressure close to Cape Cod Monday morning, a few hours of heavy snow right around daybreak should bring yet another round of 8-16 to the high country. In this case most of the snow will fall before the ski day Monday with snowfall tapering to flurries by mid-morning. Much like the snow this past Thursday night and Friday, the snow will be a bit damp in the valley locations but drier above 2000 feet where temperatures generally hover in the middle 20's. Limited sunshine later Monday will allow those valley locations to inch above the freezing mark but I expect readings to remain sub-freezing on our mountains not only Monday but much of next week.
The break in the hard hitting action continues into Tuesday though there is a jet stream disturbance capable of bringing us clouds and snow flurries late in the day. This feature will serve as some importance as it will bring a limited but very critical supply of colder, drier Canadian air to the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Temperatures could fall to 10 degrees early Wednesday and though readings will warm somewhat throughout the day, our midweek storm appears to be a colder one even though the expected track of the storm is farther north. The third and last in this 3 part series continues to appear like the most potent system and for a big MRV result, we need a nice clean low pressure transfer from the southern Great Lakes region to the Atlantic coast.Though the polar jet does appear to be advancing in our direction during the middle part of next week, there does not appear to be a back end PJ kicker capable of over-amplifying the initial midwest low pressure center and preventing the aforementioned coastal transfer. That being said, I remain bullish on our potential results. A recent run of the European model did track the storm over northern New England but there continues to be a nice established consensus in the ensemble data for an excellent track and snowfall for northern Vermont. Again, snow from this would arrive during the day Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night and Thursday. This event is still 5 days away and thus it is important to factor some uncertainty as expectations inherently evolve.
Friday and into the last full weekend in January continue to show up as potentially arctic, really the first such weekend of 2023 though the overall pattern continues to resemble a classic chilly La Nina set up. This means cold air encompasses much of southern Canada, the upper midwest, and portions of the northern Rocky Mountains while maintaining a more tenuous grasp on New England in late January and early February. We can expect more action in this setup and more snow but the inland runner is always a risk in any La Nina year and is certainly a possibility in this upcoming weather pattern even with the colder weather.
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