MRG will make a bid for the trifecta over the next week with snow locked in for Thursday night/Friday and additional chances for signficant snow Monday the 23rd and later next week !

 This will easily go down as the best blog update of 2023. It has been a tough slog across all areas of the northeast since just after the Christmas holiday but things are about to change in a big way. Both life and weather come at you fast in a Vermont winter and it is amazing to think that the 1-3 inches of crust currently covering many of our mountains might, within a week, finally see some deep snow. We've got a Thursday night / Friday snow locked in to the forecast picture but this will be quickly followed by two very potent looking weather systems with one set to impact us Sunday night into Monday and another during the middle of next week. 

 The snow Thursday night into Friday is a very ordinary winter weather event by Vermont standards but especially needed given current snow conditions. Snow will arrive abruptly between 9 pm Thursday to midnight Friday with a rapid 3-5 inch accumulation across the high country during the overnight hours. By daybreak on Friday, the snow will become light but remain persistent, especially above 1,500 feet and this allows the early call of 8-16 inches (4-6 at the start of the ski day) to remain on target for a total accumulation by Friday evening. Temperature profiles actually look a little colder with readings projected to remain in the mid 20's both Thursday night and Friday allowing much of the snow to stay on the dry side. Thursday night's snow will be a little denser but much of Friday's snow appears fluffier since it falls as a result of a more favorable upper air environment combined with oragraphic enhancement. This will not be an especially accurate forecast for the Champlain Valley which appears to be in line for both less snow and wetter snow. The southern Vermont snowfall picture does appear a little better with rain more confined to Massachusetts and Connecticut during this event. Wind direction will be a little problematic for the Single Chair Thursday night into early Friday but winds will abate and become more northeasterly during the day which is considerably gentler on that lift though I am not sure if they plan to open it. 

Temperatures will remain above average both through this upcoming first storm and the weekend. Saturday's weather conditions can be described as blustery with clouds and snow flurries along with a few break of sunshine. Sunday should feature less wind and perhaps a period of sunshine in the morning before clouds from our next system flood the region as the day progresses. Readings should get into the 20's both days and only drop into the teens at night. Across valley locations, I think temperatures will exceed the freezing mark Sunday afternoon. 

I am just loving the evolving consensus for our next system set to bring what appears to be snowfall Sunday night into Monday (Jan23). This is a quick moving storm but one that will rapidly intensify as it interacts with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Coast. As of Wednesday afternoon, all 3 major medium range computer models suggest a storm track that would take this storm up through Connecticut toward the Maine coastline. This is just beautiful ! We don't have a jet stream blocking mechanism in place to inhibit a quick exit, but several hours of significant snowfall and a sizable accumulation are appearing more likely. We are still dealing with a situation where cold air is in short supply, but thankfully, this appears to be a problem for coastal locations and interior Vermont appears to be well situated though changes are still possible. 

The quickly exiting storm on Monday will allow weather conditions to improve rapidly Monday evening and perhaps we can squeeze several hours of sunshine out of Tuesday. Though the pattern will begin to allow arctic air to spill southward across the North American continent, it will remain away from New England through most of next week. This means daytime temperatures should continue to reach the 20's both during Monday's storm and Tuesday into Wednesday and readings should again exceed the freezing mark in valley locations. Meanwhile the third storm in the trifecta appears to be the most dynamic and will be organizing itself and gathering moisture in the Mississippi Delta region. Though this storm appears to be the strongest, there's also a risk that it amplifies too early and take a trajectory somewhere west of optimal. I am happy to report this is not the current trend but it certainly remains a possibility. The current would, at the very least, transfer much of the energy from this storm to the coast and would allow for a third hefty accumulation in the span of a week across northern Vermont. Arctic air does loom beyond this storm but I am hoping the polar jet stays out of this storm's way since it might act as a steroid and turn this promising situation into an inland runner. Right now the storm's impact appears to be next Wednesday January 25th into Thursday January 26th with the polar jet making an entrance into Friday. I would prefer to hold this timing in place given the choice. 

Arctic is of course a net benefit to us in the grand scheme of things and we are looking at a chilly last weekend of January, hopefully one with very deep snow. The pattern overall going into February resembles a more classic La Nina upper air look with an elongated ridge in the jet stream in the eastern Pacific keeping the storminess aimed at western Canada as opposed to California. This set up often prevents arctic air from unloading on the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. but New England and larger portions of both the central and Rocky Mountain west are regions certainly in play for more persistent colder temperatures. It should remain an exciting pattern into early February but a classic La Nina pattern can always manufacture an inland runner even in the best of situations.