Colder weather has returned to the MRV, just in time for another more wintry update !

The MRV has made it clear to the other side of yet another brutal stretch of 2022-23 non-winter weather. Yet I awoke to an apparent social media universe filled with negative nancies and white flag waving willies and this gives me the chance to post a random gif of Apollo Creed's trainer Tony "Duke" Evers yelling for the towel in his famous match against Ivan Drago !

And no I will not throw it !. The weather pattern appears a lot more favorable for snow across New England with a sudden stratospheric warming event having occurred, favoring colder weather at mid-latitudes more generally while the jet stream in the Pacific is expected to weaken and NAO expected to turn negative. Most importantly, snow has entered the forecast picture in the more immediate as opposed to long range horizon. Not in time for the holiday weekend perhaps, but as soon as  late Tuesday, February 21st. 

Lots of clouds in that forecast for next week, but one thing the holiday weekend does have is sunshine, a full day of it on Saturday and at least a partial day of it Sunday. Seasonable temperatures can be expected for Saturday while southwesterly winds on Sunday move temperatures above the freezing mark and up near 40 on Sunday. Clouds return for President's Day, but the rain and snow showers should hold off until very late in the ski based on the current look of things. Precipitation across the high country after the ski day should be mostly snow showers, coming from a clipper system, the first of two that is expected to impact the region early next week. This first clipper will bring just minimal snowfall but it will bring temperatures back into the 20's for most of Tuesday ahead of the approaching 2nd clipper system which appears more interesting. 

There's lots of weather after President's Day and the snowfall late on Tuesday or early Wednesday is likely to be on the lighter side. Forecast models continue to struggle with all the different disturbances rapidly moving through the jet stream but I do tend to like the recent European model scenario of snowfall for the MRV beginning Tuesday night and amounting to a few inches by Wednesday. As conditions dry out later Wednesday, arctic air positioned over Canada will make a southward push into interior New England, just out ahead of the much bigger area of storminess approaching from the Midwest. There's understandable consternation regarding the next big east coast precipitation producer on February 23rd because of the large area of warmth in the southeast making another northward push. The difference this time ? A large confluence area in the jet stream known as a "jet streak" predicted to set up over the maritimes which will ultimately make it very difficult to dislodge the cold over northern Vermont (yes, the southern New England coastline is doomed again). It's a closer call than I would like certainly, but a potentially fruitful situation for us in the MRV with new snowfall coming both Thursday and Friday, possibly significant. Yes, there is a chance for a period of mixed precipitation, but I would not expect temperatures to move beyond the freezing mark late next week for any lengthy period of time. 

Arctic air is indicated to arrive in the wake of whatever outcome we receive late next week giving the early part of the last weekend in Feb a cold look (Feb 25). The colder weather is then indicated to abate for Sunday into Monday February 27th before colder weather is reinforced for the rest of that week. The negative NAO will become a more significant player by this point so it will be interesting to see what can be spun up in that time frame.