Outlook trends in a more wintry direction for the end of the month with new snowfall expected as early as Friday and additional chances thereafter !

If we can stay focused on the last update and use it as our reference point, this update is a pretty darn good one. El Torchy is taking no prisoners Wednesday and is ravaging most of New York state with 60-plus temperatures. Clouds have given Vermont a layer of protection from the excessive spring-like weather Wednesday but strong south to southwest winds are expected to blow some of that warmth into the MRV for a few hours this evening and into the overnight. Aside from that news however, almost every other part of the outlook is colder or more wintry or both, even for the shorter term. 

The battle between those El Torchy conditions in eastern North America and the more wintry conditions out west (even Vegas got in on that act yesterday) is and will be delineated by two areas of low pressure, the first of which traveled through Quebec on Wednesday while the second will exit the Rockies proceed into the southern plains and track northeastward toward New England Thursday. The forecast track of this second area of low pressure has trended southward and the just released Euro model has the storm over the Berkshires Friday morning. While other models are farther north, they have participated in this southward trend and this changes the weather picture even for Thursday when we are expecting some colder air to ooze southward and keep temperatures in the 30's in the MRV as opposed to the near 50-degree air I expected over us a few days ago. So can we pull off the miracle and get snow from this on Friday ? The chances certainly aren't zero and as you move northward to Stowe, Smuggs and Jay Peak, those chances increase.  Currently, rain is still expected to begin early Friday but a low level push of colder air is likely to change that precipitation to freezing rain, maybe some sleet and eventually a period of snow. That snow could be significant from Stowe northward and if this southward trend continues, we could steal a much needed 4-8 snow storm out of this miserable winter weather setup. I am not predicting that yet but at least it's possible and more likely as you travel northward. 

The other part of the shorter term outlook that has trended in the right direction has to do with early next week which continues to look mild but does not appear to include any more excessive thawing. The weekend will consist of a seasonable but blustery and sunny Saturday and a milder Sunday including readings on the mountain that climb into the 30's. A clipper system is expected to bring clouds for President's Day and temperatures are expected to hover above the freezing mark on the mountains while reaching the 40's in Valley locations but I don't see a risk for any substantial rainfall. Instead, elevation sensitive rain and snow showers appear likely followed by cooler temperatures Monday night into Tuesday. As next week progresses, which is a holiday week for some, colder air will continue to ooze southward and eventually the later part of next week and following weekend will see arctic air envelop the MRV. Models are having a difficult time sorting through specifics regarding the storminess next week but we are positioned rather well to receive a needed dose of new snow in the middle or later part of the week from one or two nice looking waves of low pressure capable of spreading significant overrunning snowfall to interior New England. 

Convective activity in the south Pacific is expected to shift the MJO into a more favorable phase for winter weather over all of North America and there continues to be evidence that the coldest air is favored over western North America, New England also looks chilly and wintry to finish out what has been another mild month. With milder temperatures continue to linger over the southeast, consistent with the finest La Nina tradition, it does set up New England rather nicely to be on the receiving end of some late season winter storms. This has been a tough stretch, but it's not yet game over !