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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Major early April snow event is very possible during the middle part of next week !

The doubters were out there on social media and the declarations were made. To be fair some of them covered regions that are farther south or closer to the coast and that's fine. At least up in our neck of skiable woods, winter is most certainly not over and the prevailing weather pattern continues to consist of a large blocking feature centered over the Davis Strait and this feature is actually expected to strengthen over the next 5 days and support what could be a sizeable early April winter weather event in northern Vermont. More on that in a minute ! 

Our upcoming holiday Easter weekend is a quiet one in the meantime.Clouds give way to some sunshine for Friday with some strong northwest winds. These winds will diminish somewhat on Saturday while a weak weather impulse manages to focus clouds and precipitation far enough to our south to allow for some sunshine on Saturday. Easter Sunday will feature sunshine in valley locations but more clouds and snow flurries over the high country. All three days will feature some above freezing temperatures during the day, sub-freezing temperatures during the night and only a minimal amount of snow melt thanks to dry air. Enjoy our periods of sun because the upcoming week following Easter promises to be a cloudy one. 

Cold air over the arctic and across Canada has weakened as it always does by late March into April, but what's left is expected to establish a presence in Vermont Sunday night and remain  in place through much of the week. A large low pressure area is expected to emerge out of the eastern Rockies on Monday. It is assuredly going to create outbreaks of severe weather in the early part of next week in the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east. The storm is on a collision course with the Great Lakes and New England and the Davis Straight blocking is keeping us in play for a major winter weather event even as temperatures continue to rise above freezing during the day Monday and Tuesday following more sub-freezing nights.  Lots of particulars need to be sorted and details will evolve gradually yet there are early indications of precipitation beginning in the back half of  Tuesday as snow or mixed precipitation. The storm is expected to slow in speed while intensifying near the New England coastline. It's a classic New England  hang on to your hang-ups scenario and presents ski country (at least the one we care about) with amazing possibilities late Wednesday into Thursday, perhaps one of the best April snow events in recent memory. It's still early in this forecasting game and things do tend to to change, shift, evolve and so forth so we should expect that, but stay tuned and don't put your ski's away ! 

Even more encouraging news relates to the cloud cover. As cloudy as the first week in April appears, a more promising picture is starting to emerge for the first full weekend in April and most importantly April 8. The ideal scenario for minimal cloud cover for early spring Vermont is for northwest flow aloft at jet stream level with more potent areas of unsettled weather well south and east of us. That is somewhat of the picture being drawn in the varying ensemble packages though its always close. Certainly there is a stronger signal for a high pressure area to clear the cloudiness away for April 7th and we can only hope that continues into April 8th as well. 



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