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Monday, March 25, 2024

More snow is "possible" Thursday night into Friday as cooler weather pattern expected to prevail through our solar eclipse day of April 8

Deep snow now covers all of the northern Vermont high country and I had anticipated a relatively tranquil more spring-like week including some warm afternoons and not more than one day with some light precipitation. Some of what was described continues to be a part of the current weather picture, but I would describe the outlook as a whole as being cooler and more unsettled and this includes additional chances for snowfall across the mountains. 

The deep snow cover has brought some chilly nights to Vermont. Readings fell to the single numbers Monday morning and are expected to fall into the teens once again early on Tuesday morning before southerly winds power readings back into the 40's in spite of more cloudiness during the ski day.  These clouds will keep readings warmer Tuesday night and also prevent temperatures from rising beyond the 40's on Wednesday as our next storm system begins to take shape. Moisture from this initially disorganized storm will stream northward and bring some occasional light rain to Vermont during the day, before moving eastward toward the coastline Wednesday night. This general outcome has been the consensus expectation for a few days now, but recent models are suggesting that the coastal low pressure center will strengthen more dramatically, attain a negative tilt  and position itself near Cape Cod Thursday night. If this trend continues we will see more rain on Thursday with that rain changing to snowfall Thursday night into Friday. I've yet to see enough conclusive confirmation of this change in the outlook to suggest another significant snowfall is likely, but it certainly has my attention and another elevation sensitive snowfall is certainly a slight possibility before the last full weekend of March. 

The aforementioned last full weekend in March looks cool with sub-freezing nights and only slightly above freezing days on the mountain and this general theme is expected to continue through much of the first full week in April.  The week also appears unsettled with at least one opportunity for mixed precipitation or snow (likely Monday or Tuesday). I see no opportunity through April 5th where readings will climb above 50 on the mountain and several are likely to stay below 40. 

 The time has also come for some early April 8th prognostications. It will be around that time when the focal point for cool, unsettled weather is expected to shift offshore yet there remains some lingering ridging in the Davis Strait region and forcing in the Pacific continues to favor cooler weather in mid-latitude weather more generally. I am pretty convinced that the ski season will be alive and well in the MRV with deep snow pack prevailing above 2,000 feet and more patchy snow cover enduring below that. If we can achieve some northwest flow at jet stream level, a real possibility if we can push the unsettled weather off the coast, we really improve our prospects for a clearer sky.



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