What an incredible week it's been already at Mad River Glen. It's been both productive in the snowfall department and entertaining one to experience as a weather enthusiast. It's a been a warm year and a warm month with temperatures across the state averaging at least 7 above the climatologal average. Snowfall has been especially elevation sensitive throughout the entire year and that trend only amplified both this month and week. Snow showers and squalls continue to dust valley locations with an inch or two and then repeatedly the sun would come out and melt everything down to the bare ground. The mountains have gotten a lot more than a few inches from these snow bursts and very little has melted and the powder pretty deep over a solid base of existing snow. The wintry scenes over the mountains parlay nicely with the anticipation of a big grand finale this Saturday, a storm that appears locked in for the entirety of northern Vermont. Even valley areas will find a hard time avoiding accumulating snow out of this one.
The big ingredient Saturday's storm has which many other events have lacked is cold air. The polar vortex lives in late March and has spent the week chilling in the vicinity of the Hudson Bay. A big southern streamer, still fueled by the weakening El Nino, will be pushing eastward Friday through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. To the naked eye, it doesn't appear as if the polar and southern branch of the jet stream can come into phase and produce a storm of any significance, yet Vermont will get big snow anyway. Rather then suppress moisture, a polar jet impulse will have the effect of pulling moisture from this storm northward into the cold air and creating a large area of heavy overrunning snowfall for northern New England and rainfall for southern New England. It all begins in the predawn hours Saturday as steady snow quickly becomes heavy snow and persists throughout the ski day. There's enough warm air above us for some sleet to mix in with the snow from time to time, but enough cold air at the surface to keep the snow consistency powdery on the mountain. Snow should taper off rather abruptly just as it gets dark on Saturday with accumulations of 1-2 feet. I am glad I didn't overthink this one else, I might have written it off a few days ago. Weather can always defy conventional wisdom if given enough opportunities and this one appears to be one of those instances.
Temperatures should remain in the 20's on the mountain through Saturday and winds are expected to be a modest 10-20 mph. A east to southeast direction has had a history of being a little problematic and this is expected during the morning before winds shift and become northeast then north during the afternoon. This is certainly not a historically strong storm, but we appear to be in a great spot for heavy snowfall.
Sunshine is expected to return for Sunday and continue into Monday. Sub-freezing temperatures most of Sunday should keep the snow drier across high elevations before milder temperatures Monday afternoon bring on another round of spring conditions. This weather pattern continues to be capable of producing some cold though the focus will shift westward over the middle of the continent and milder temperatures are thus expected to prevail over Vermont for the duration of the week. This means 40's on the mountain every day and the possibility of rain in the middle of the week. Ensembles suggest some colder weather and snowfall could return early in April.
The upcoming week promises to be the best of the season for us and I hope everyone can enjoy it !
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