Patience is required for help on new snow though pattern for the holidays continues to look encouraging

It was a soggy day, very much as expected across the mountains of northern Vermont. Temperatures however, remained in the 30's, defying expectations from a few days ago of a big spike and a bigger melt-off. This is important since the colder temperatures will preserve both some of the recent snowfall and will not put to waste all the snowmaking efforts from the nearly 2 weeks of sub-freezing temperatures. I remain cautiously optimistic on the outlook through the end of 2024 and perhaps even a step above "cautiously" as of Wednesday afternoon. We have the weather pattern aligned enough to support what could be the coldest December month since 2017. That said, we will have to be patient for our next chance at natural snow. We can expect a little taste here and there but still have another day of milder temperatures to endure (after today). 

Blustery winds will whip 20-30 degree temperatures back into the region by Thursday morning. The heavy rain will end as snow Wednesday night and we can expect light snow showers and flurries during the day Thursday, but the westerly flow is not an especially moist one for us and the heavier snow showers are more likely north of Stowe. Expect readings to fall not far from 10 degrees Friday morning and struggle to 20 Friday though with lots of December sunshine and excellent visibility. More blue skies can be expected Saturday, a comfortable day thanks to calmer winds and near 30-degree afternoon temperatures following a chilly start. 

The period beginning Sunday and ending Tuesday has been targeted by the various longer ensembles as a potential thaw or mild weather for awhile now. The warmth doesn't appear excessive and Sunday's increase in clouds underneath a surface wedge ridge are expected to help keep readings in check. Above freezing temps and some light mixed precipitation or rain appear pegged for Tuesday, December 17th before colder weather reestablishes a presence in New England. It's not a great outlook next week, but this could have easily been worse. Furthermore, longer range ensembles are providing us with our first hints of what could be our next significant snow either around or just before this year's winter solstice. 

This is underscoring a key point at the end of the last update about the pattern fundamentals for the rest of 2024. I really like the jet stream action in the Pacific and been pleasantly surprised that we might very well see this regime reemerge around the holiday. A lot of unsettled weather is indicated in the mid-latitude Pacific and the easiest way I can describe that is to call it an evil empire inversion. A natural result of this, among a few others is for some ridging to develop in western North America, providing us with our mechanism for a colder flow of weather. At face value, ensembles show normal temperatures across New England Christmas week. If we manage to split the flow, with jet energy in the Pacific undercutting that ridge in western North America, we can spin ourselves up a storm prior to the start of 2025.