Some snow potential emerging near the winter solstice while the outlook turns slightly milder around Christmas and beyond

With cold weather having returned to northern New England, we play the familiar game of searching in the outlook for our next chance at new natural snow. Looks like we will at least have one solid chance prior to Christmas. In spite of the recent rain, it's not been an especially bad start to December. Temperatures on the mountain are averaging in the low 20's with much of the fallen snow compressed into an icy base layer of concrete. Dust on crust. 

It was both a dry and extraordinarily sunny autumn period throughout New England, but our darkest month of  the year has seen clouds and a lot of precipitation so far. Friday featured some sunshine and this will be followed by two outstanding bluebird days with minimal wind. Saturday is the colder version with readings near 20 and Sunday is the more comfortable version with readings climbing to 30. The clear sky and tranquil winds will help bring many parts of Vermont below zero Sunday morning. 

Clouds are likely to return for Monday December 16th but the latest indication is that the warm advection snow, ice and rain stays to our south during the day. By Monday night light precipitation is expected to arrive as ice or rain and this could end as some wet snow on the mountains on Tuesday. Once again, temperatures are likely to stay in the 30's as the precipitation is falling and the mildest period in the week is likely Tuesday afternoon after the precipitation ends. 

The end of next week is beginning to look very interesting as there appears to be a building consensus for a big jet amplification. How this evolves in the form of specifics is very much a question as a series of jet impulses could have some impact on our weather. The one I have a particular eye on precedes the strongest surge of arctic chill so far this season and will rotate through the Great Lakes Friday. It has the potential for some constructive interaction with a weak low pressure area near the eastern seaboard with the end result being a material snow event somewhere in the northeast, most likely interior areas. Very cold weather and at least some snow showers is a minimal likely result of all this on Saturday (winter solstice day), with bitterly cold air and more snow showers lingering for Sunday. 

The previous paragraph summarizes much of the good news in this update. The more troubling part of the outlook involves the actual Christmas holiday and the immediate days after which do appear to be milder vs my earlier expectations. Though we do have continued support from the EPO, arctic air is expected to retreat somewhat over central and western Canada and the partially unfrozen Hudson Bay will make it more challenging to retain the existing cold in eastern Canada. For now, I would be inclined to favor only slightly above average temperatures and there are no glaring indications of wet weather .If we manage to lay down some significant snow next weekend (still a question), the holiday period could be a pretty good one relative to recent seasons.