Lots of good stuff in this update and I can't help but continue to think of where we were last February in contrast to now. In 2024 we had a historic continental scouring of arctic air and I was trying to take solace in the fact that Vermont was only 10 degrees above normal as opposed to 25. Though the pattern has realigned with the core of the cold now focused on areas farther west, that core of cold represents some of the coldest air on the planet and large portions of Canada are set for a dramatically colder February than the one a year ago. New England sits in one of the more interesting locations and will see cold to the north constantly doing better with pushes of milder air from the southeast. We saw that cold win out this past weekend and produce a -15 degree morning (coldest of the season in many locations) and though the forecast still includes threats of mixed precipitation and a little bit of rain, these interludes of milder air appear weaker, shorter and not an especially dominant part of the outlook for the next two weeks.
When things are going well, you steal events like the one we can expect for Monday night. Temps will sneak above freezing in valley areas Monday. Hopefully it makes for a comfortable ski day for those heading out, but the best part is that it won't negatively impact precipitation when it arrives Monday night. Some years, it's hard to produce a decent anafrontal situation where the snowfall is induced by undercutting cold air and this appears to be one of those. It appears to be a very straightforward situation with some snow arriving after the ski day, falling steadily until about midnight and tapering to flurries thereafter. Temps will be in the upper 20's on the mountain as the snow is falling, closer to freezing in valley areas and by the time the ski day begins on Tuesday we should have 4-7 inches and by then it will be powdery with temperatures spending much of the day in the teens.
Jet stream is set up to produce a nice period of sunshine from late Tuesday through Wednesday albeit with some very cold temperatures and in the case of Tuesday wind. Much like the weekend, the push of cold is more direct and should produce another round of sub-zero temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday morning. Wednesday's cold is the version I prefer however with excellent visibility, lots of blue skies and tolerable wind speeds that are expected to get pretty calm by late in the day. Clouds return by Thursday and temperatures will moderate and rise into the 20's. We've had our eye on Thursday's weather system for a while as one that might bring mixed precipitation, rain and/or a significant thaw. Models have all backed off on the latter two which is terrific news. We can now expect a decent front-end thump of snow beginning in the midday hours that will change to some sort of mixture in the evening hours. Temperatures might exceed the freezing mark for several hour Thursday night, but not in a material way. I don't think the mixed precipitation will be all that significant either though it does remain a part of this equation. Colder air returns during the day Friday and temperatures fall back to sub-freezing levels accompanied by lighter snow showers.
The 2nd in a series of storms this pattern is set to produce appears very promising for the back end of this weekend. It's a similar looking storm to the one set to impact us this Thursday only with a storm track that is further south. Because the system is still 5-6 days out, we should still anticipate some alterations but this certainly has the potential to produce significant snowfall accumulations for northern Vermont.
Much of this update is colder themed and this covers the outlook beyond this upcoming weekend and into next week. The core of the coldest air remains well to our west and north yet we will continue to see this cold make southward intrusions into interior New England and produce days like this past Sunday or this upcoming Wednesday. I am more excited about the potential storminess however which continues to look a lot more active verses what we saw in a relatively dry, but cold January. Whatever kind of storm we get Sunday, should be out the door by early next week and will be followed by another potential storm in the middle to later part of the week after 2-3 drier days. The Euro ensemble turned much colder President's Day weekend and beyond though this is not entirely supported by the Canadian and American ensembles. Either way, its an outlook that's shifted from normal to above on a temperature range to normal to below. Just a really solid update for us Vermont loving skiers overall ! Enjoy !
