Weather pattern throwing hurdles at us as we head toward March

Thursday's snow didn't quite work out to what I had hoped. We got about half as much as expected got another dose of the southwesterly blues late in the afternoon which warmed temperatures on the lower mountain dramatically for a what amounted to a few hours. When it comes to weather, sometimes the bad news just comes in a big wave and this appears to be one of those days. 

The upper part of our mountains have performed just fine this week and for the most part, managed to weather the various warm pushes quite well. The snow stake at Mansfield is basically showing the depth at a peak on 2/27, even as valley areas lost a bit of their snow. We won't see additional losses of snow this weekend and still have some snow in the forecast, yet this clipper is also not materializing into the snow producing weather system that it could have been. 

Snow will arrive very late Friday evening and continue into early Saturday, depositing 2-4 inches. Aesthetically, this is a nice looking weather feature, but it simply is taking a sharp left turn into Quebec too early and leaving us in a drier quadrant of the storm; in fact, one would need to travel well north of Montreal to get into the better conveyor of moisture.  Expect a midday break in snowfall during the day Saturday aside from a few flurries followed by a round of evening snow showers. With the storm pulling so far to the north and given the amount of ice on Lake Champlain, it is pretty hard to get bullish on the back-end snow. Models do indicate some and expecting an additional 1-3 is not a big ask or an unreasonable expectation. Temperatures will be up around the freezing mark again on Saturday during the day and sharply fall off Saturday night into Sunday. The ski day Sunday looks frigid with single digit temperatures accompanied by 30 mph wind gusts. Most of the day will be bluebird which will certainly help. 

The mid-week storm will rank as the most frustrating moment of the season for me weather-wise. We have this beautiful ridge setting up in western Canada and undercutting split flow that in many cases can send a major winter storm in our direction. Unfortunately, it doesn't always work the way conventional wisdom would suggest. The cold late this weekend is poorly timed and we don't have the blocking mechanism to hold it in place. By the middle of the week, a overly mature, severe weather producing storm will make its way into the plains and head toward the central Great Lakes. A weaker, less amplified system would be more likely to transfer its energy to the coast and thwart a warm up and this storm just appears too dominant for such a fate. Unless we see some changes late in this forecasting game which is still possible, we will get an early March thaw and some rain when we don't deserve one. Monday is a bluebird special with -10 degree morning readings warming to 20 in the afternoon, Tuesday we are up into the 30's with early sun followed by clouds and then the mild weather will make its push. There have been some indications of some overrunning snow Tuesday night and although this is certainly possible, Wednesday appears windy and mild with rain up and down the mountain late in the day and perhaps a bit of heavy rain in the evening or overnight hours. Given the depth of the snow, especially over the high country, we really have to hope we can minimize the rain and wind as they are, aside from eating away at skiable snow, present a flood risk for areas prone to river flooding. Wind and cooler temperatures are expected to follow for Thursday with some back end snow likely as the day progresses. There is a 2nd weather feature, also a product of the split flow and this is expected to have some sort of east coast impact Friday into Saturday March 8th. 

The EPO is expected to take an adverse turn by the 2nd week of March and this is going to bring us some hurdles for the middle part of March as well. When the Pacific gets a bit angry like this, much of the unsettled weather is focused on the western United States and cold is often bottled up in the northern part of the continent. Weather systems can defy conventional wisdom as the storm next week seems intent on proving, but ensembles are not showing the northeast to be an especially favored location for winter weather in the middle of the month. Overall it's a somewhat surprising turn in the weather pattern, yet the EPO has also been favorable a lot more than I expected given conditions in the Pacific Ocean going into the season. 

Lastly, I want to give a shout out to the folks at NOAA and the pain they are enduring from yesterday's firings that were done without cause. There are times I might disagree with a product or a forecast, but that does not suggest I don't respect the work they do. The private sector is not equipped and does not want the responsibility of warning in extreme weather situations and the organization has come a long way over the past decades as to the way it communicates to the public in those situations. Additionally, collecting upper air data, maintaining radar sites, running computer models, providing data that keeps our airplanes from crashing, marine forecasts that keep mariners out of trouble, river forecast centers that monitor flood risk, maintaining our network of satellites and monitoring air quality levels are all pretty vital. Though plenty of tax dollars  are wasted, NOAA is a pretty well run outfit, especially considering they make all these efforts publicly available so that stooges like me can blog about it for 20 years specific to our mountains. I wouldn't be able to do it without their efforts.

Nice looking short term outlook on snow, watching a storm next week and a potentially milder middle of March

 Some areas of the Mad River Valley saw their first rain of 2025, but some areas way up on the mountain did not ! The southwest flow, which we've done well to avoid for much of this year so far, did provide a gut punch though as it often does. It's part of a widespread mild weather onslaught across the United States which exceeded expectations almost everywhere. Interior New England would do well in this setup to get any taste of winter and fortunately we should do better than that. 

Our Thursday snow evolves from a feeble looking system spinning its way through the lower Great Lakes Wednesday. The area of low pressure is expected to gather just a bit of intensity and some additional moisture as it makes a northeast push toward Vermont. Though the storm won't be strong enough to produce any type of truly memorable powder, the trends over the past 24 hours have been positive and the area form north-central Vermont to northern New Hampshire and all the way through interior Maine appear to be positioned quite well for a decent snow. This snow should begin before daybreak Thursday and become heavy for a brief period during the midday hours. The snow will then become lighter as the afternoon progresses and evolve into more of a snow shower situation Thursday night. Temperatures continue to appear as if they will hover close to the freezing mark in valley locations, yet on the whole, the storm looks a touch colder with readings mostly in high 20's on the mountain and more limited time, if at all, for southwesterly flow to dampen things in the later afternoon (though we should expect some of that in the valley anyway). There will be more elevation sensitivity with the snowfall which should amount to 6-8 inches on the mountain Thursday with another 2-5 falling Thursday night into early Friday. Weather systems are moving briskly this week and the snow showers early Friday will dissipate and we can expect a chilly day with temperatures falling back toward the high teens. 

Our 2nd in a series of storms will approach faster than what was conveyed in the previous update and begin depositing a colder snow on MRG just after midnight Saturday.  Dynamically, this storm appears more impressive than Thursday though it lacks the moisture and is also poised to track right over us as opposed to the preferred trajectory - south of us. Still, we remain in line for a 2-5 inch snowfall early Saturday followed by another 3-6 inches Saturday evening and night thanks to an optimal looking snow shower setup. Expect Saturday's temperatures to remain in the 20's with lighter winds, but Sunday's readings will be close to zero. Early March sunshine will help a little Sunday, but prepare for wind gusts up to 30 mph. 

The weather pattern for the first 10 days of March continues to appear supportive for winter weather though operational models continue to paint a more choppy situation. The concern revolves around a potentially big precipitation producing event and strong storm on March 5th and 6th (A Wednesday and Thursday). The storm could even have multiple acts that extend into Friday, March 7th with different results in each act. As I mentioned, there's enough support in the weather pattern for this to evolve into a major winter storm. given the support from the ridge in the northwest part of our continent. Models continue to simulate a milder scenario with an over-amplified storm in the plains making a beeline for the eastern Great Lakes and thus pumping mild air into northern New England. I am not resigned to that outcome as of yet and was encouraged as the overnight Euro model trended toward a less milder storm and some snow on the back end. Expect this forecast to evolve over time as it appears to be a complicated multi-day weather situation. 

Beyond March 10th, we lose the support of the EPO and don't have many friends in high latitude places (if you know what I mean). This makes the outlook appear milder mid month and leaves us susceptible to some sort of mid-month thaw. 

3 snowfall opportunities over the next 5-6 days with the cold pattern backing off some in early March

Temperatures moderated significantly Monday and it's dramatic enough that one can probably start to smell the next season. Regardless of how the weather pattern turns out, March always features a handful of spring-like days and very often its sandwiched around some of the best powder days of the year. If I had to guess, we should more of that this year. 

The short term outlook reflects much of what was just described. I get a little nervous when I see strong periods of south of southwest flow show up over northern Vermont. Those are often not kind to our valley in the winter as it can quite often get warmer than anticipated and eat a lot of snow. In the case of this week, those periods appear isolated and capable of melting some snow in valley areas while the high terrain remains close to the freezing mark. There's also some chances for snowfall that need to be highlighted so here are the details. The first "torch" period comes Monday night and fortunately the flow is expected to weaken by daybreak. My hope is that temperatures just hang out near the freezing mark and thus any wind isn't especially damaging. Clouds and lighter winds Tuesday should prevent readings from getting too high, yet they will be above 40 in valley locations and above freezing for the first time in many lower mountain locations. Some elevation sensitive precipitation then arrives in the afternoon and this should mean snowfall for the mountains and a mix in valley locations. Cooler temperatures Tuesday night should allow the snow to accumulate 2-4 inches by the ski day Wednesday with a slushy inch or so in valley locations. Aside from some lingering flurries Wednesday morning, the day will be dry with some intervals of sunshine. The now retreated polar air barely makes a reappearance in northern Vermont and just in time for the arrival of our next system which appears benign but has enough moisture to make some noise. I would very much prefer it if this very weak area of low pressure early Thursday would make a pass just a bit further south as opposed to veering left at the last 2nd into Quebec. As it stands, the northern half of Vermont is in line for a decent dose of overrunning snowfall early Thursday and then another period of warming south to southwest flow in the afternoon. The day is thus expected to feature some powdery mountain turns in the morning and valley melting in the afternoon, a fairly typical trait for March. The snow shower setup for Friday looks promising and this is likely going to make it the best of the week with temperatures falling back toward 20 degrees and healthy north to northwest flow bringing in some supplemental moisture. Total snowfall appears to be in the 3-6 inch category Thursday and will include some wet snow in lower elevations and a powdery 3-6 for Friday with the return of gusty winds. Warm periods appear to be Monday night and Thursday afternoon. 

2024-25 has had a distinct trend of Sunday powder days and the weather is lining up to present that to us again on the first full weekend in March. Models have been split as to the track of what is expected to be a very vigorous clipper system and one that should start bringing snow to northern Vermont late Saturday into Saturday night followed by snow showers on Sunday. Saturday's temps appear seasonable with lighter winds under the clouds and some potential afternoon snow while Sunday appears very cold with temperatures 10-15 along with some wind. Final snowfall will depend on the track, but I would put odds of 3 inches of powder for Sunday at 70 percent. 

Ensembles have backed off the intensity of the cold pattern for early March though they are still supportive of a generally favorable jet stream through March 10th. It's probably worth highlighting a potential trouble spot in the recent European ensemble data around March 5th and 6th though given the supportive feedback mechanisms coming off a cold winter, this trouble spot could easily become our next chance for a big snow. Regardless, there will be several opportunities for some early March snowfall beginning with the Sunday event already highlighted.

A few mild days showing for early next week followed by several potential storms and a return of colder temperatures

A bit of surprise snow Thursday night and some more Friday sun makes the wind a bit easier to deal with for another day. The wind won't diminish entirely for the weekend, Saturday still appears gusty with over 20 mph winds in exposed summit areas while Sunday should be a bit better with winds more in the 10-20 mph range. We are expecting more sun for Saturday while temperatures moderate well into the 20's and Sunday should feature more clouds and a little morning light snow with a 1-3 inch accumulation and afternoon temperatures that make a run at 30. 

The moderating trend in temperatures will continue into next week though this is a temporary move as I mentioned in the previous update. Winter is by no means showing signs of relinquishing its grip easily. That said, the early part of the week will feature some of the warmest temperatures of 2025 if you can believe it.  Clouds should keep readings in the 30's for Monday, a calm day if you are waiting for that news ! Those clouds should drop a bit of warm advection snow on us Monday night before southwest winds bring temperatures above the freezing mark for Tuesday. Again, the prevalence of clouds should keep readings from getting too crazy and more light precipitation late in the day may be of the elevation sensitive type with some rain falling in valley areas and snow in the higher elevations. The end of next week appears cooler and the risk for a storm continues late Thursday into Friday. This still looks like a clipper-like event and a sizable snow is contingent on this weather system catching a bit of northeast coastal fire. I am not confident as to an accumulation, but I would consider some powder likely for Friday when a surge of polar temperatures makes an advance into interior New England. 

There's a 2nd feature in this weather pattern that will take aim at the northeast for Sunday March 2nd. This appears to be a colder event and one that might impact areas farther south though it certainly bears watching. Whether that 2nd storm has an impact, the first weekend of March will be chilly with temperatures in the teens and 20's during the day. 

Beyond that there's more March storminess ready to reveal itself. The pattern appears cold, anchored at least initially, by some ridging in the jet stream near the Alaskan/Yukon border though that doesn't mean we still won't sneak in a mild day here and there in accordance with the season. That signal for a sizable storm is showing up during the middle part of the week leaving us plenty of time for the storm to disappear and then reappear on the various model simulations.

Winds will continue to gradually subside and cold to relax for the weekend

 Winds remain gusty on the mountain, but they've lessened some and skies are very blue as an area of low pressure gathers strength well to our south. As expected, no storm late this week for us and not much one for anyone in the northeast. One has to travel to the unusual spot of Norfolk, VA to find fresh powder and this is not a place that often sees any. There's some light snow indicated for the mountains Thursday night with a dusting the most likely accumulation amount. During the day Thursday, we should see more sunshine early and an increase in clouds later in the day. Winds will remain gusty Thursday and diminish somewhat for Friday under at least some sunshine. 

 The polar jet and associated cold air is expected to relax considerably beginning this weekend, but don't be fooled, winter isn't done nor are outbreaks of some bitterly cold air. This weekend will be quiet however. Winds will continue to diminish on what looks to be an outstanding weather day on Saturday where sunshine will warm readings from near zero to 20 degrees. Clouds and some light snow are expected to return for Sunday and temperatures are expected to continue to moderate, reaching the high 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

Relative to what we've seen for much of this month and the entire 2025 calendar year so far, the early part of next week looks pretty mild. In actual temperatures, it won't be too big of a deal. Some sunshine on Monday will boost temperatures up close to the freezing mark Monday and clouds Monday night are likely to keep temperatures pretty steady Monday night. The clouds are from a clipper system that is expected to drop a bit of snow over the mountains both during the overnight and on Tuesday. I don't like forecasting a lot of snow for MRG when the prevailing flow is southwesterly and unless the nature of this weak weather system changes, accumulations should be on the lighter side, though it won't be zero and we we shouldn't expect mixed precipitation or rain on the mountain. Temperatures are expected to remain within range of the freezing mark Wednesday and Thursday and then the stars appear to be aligning for what could be our next significant event on the final day of the month. Much could go wrong with this potential storm as it appears to be a clipper that needs to catch some coastal dynamite or some close iteration of that. A surge of cold air can be expected for the first full weekend of March, whatever happens with Friday and away we go into March. 

The biggest feature driving the weather pattern for the early part of March is a beautiful looking ridge near the Alaskan/Yukon border. This feature will make things very interesting for the first 10 days of the month with the continued presence of arctic cold a virtual certainty and while ensembles hint at the presence of more storminess. This is the first time in a while we can go into March with cold weather feedbacks blowing in our direction. The persistent cold air has put a lot of  ice on the Great Lakes, might freeze Lake Champlain in the coming days and has placed an area of colder water in the coastal waters of the northeast. Barring a big overwhelming pattern shift, it should be a slow spring or at least that's what I would expect.

Dry forecast includes more sun this week with the continued presence of strong winds

 Hope everyone is enjoying the snow and staying at least somewhat protected from the wind. Though the wind speed will certainly peak Monday, expect it to be a factor throughout the week. Late February sunshine will certainly help and we appear to have more of that, especially in the Wednesday through Friday stretch. Clouds and flurries are expected to accompany another day of strong winds and bitterly cold temperatures on Tuesday. Readings aren't expected to stray too far from zero on the mountain and wind gusts over 30 on the upper mountain will make it feel like 30 below. Needless to say, prepare accordingly. We continue to expect a storm to gather strength across the southeast on Wednesday, but its attempt to become a major Miller-A nor'easter and move up the coast is likely to get thwarted as the pattern is expected to de-amplify a bit earlier than expected. The effect of having a strengthening storm to our south will help decrease the cloud cover late in the week as I mentioned and certainly  make the forecast drier. It's just the wind, which will continue to blow along with temperatures that rise to 10 on Wednesday, 15 or so Thursday and 20 degrees Friday. Morning readings are likely to get below zero slightly, though the continued presence of the wind will keep overnight readings higher than they might be otherwise.

Cloudiness is expectred to  return for the upcoming weekend and the trend of moving daytime temperatures up about 5 degrees each day will continue. Light snow is possible for Sunday thanks to an approaching clipper system and most importantly, we should finally see winds diminish somewhat though not entirely.

Winter is expected to get held in place across interior New England by the presence of the +PNA or ridge in western North America. This is a precarious hold however as all other forms of support appear to be, at least temporarily, vanishing. This will allow the polar jet to soften and retreat somewhat and temperatures across a widespread area of eastern North America will moderate substantially. Across Vermont, the door appears very open for more snowfall. The midday model update didn't provide for much agreement on the specifics for next week but storms were shown on each model at varying times so form of material snowfall appears more likely than not. Also, don't be fooled by the polar retreat next week, ensembles are beginning to align themselves toward a colder start to March, supported mainly by another building ridge near the Alaska/Yukon border. Alaska has had a very warm winter which has fueled the persistent nature of the cold weather this year and we now have support of feedback mechanisms that will provide continuous support for this going into March. When it rains it pours and when its cold it's likely to stay cold is actually a real thing. Weather can streak for a reason as chaotic as it can seem.

Still on target for 15-30", just expect some sleet Sunday afternoon before a snowy finish Sunday night into Monday

 Folks, this storm deserves one final update and I think we've been generally on target with our expectations and at this point can just expand on key details. Light snow is expected to develop right around sunset Saturday and continue at a steady pace throughout the night. Modest snowfall rates during the overnight hours will allow 5-8 inches of snow by daybreak Sunday and then we can anticipate a burst of heavy snow from right around when lifts begin to spin until midday. Winds will be cranking at the summit considering the intensity of the storm, blowing out of the east-northeast most of the day. The burst of morning heavy snow will get us to the 8-12 inch accumulation range and then we can expect a period of sleet for several hours during the afternoon. This will remain a cold storm with temperatures generally in the teens on the mountain, rising into the 20's when winds begin to shift Sunday evening. This wind shift will effectively end the sleet and bring another round of fluffier snowfall to MRG and our surrounding mountains. I feel good about the range we have. Most of the simulations aren't snowing a ton of snow on the back end, but the flow looks outstanding coming off Lake Champlain and the mountains should be on the receiving end of some healthy additional snowfall Sunday night into a cold and blustery Monday morning. It won't be a wet snow Sunday given where temperatures are, though it will still be a dense snow made denser by the period of sleet. The consistency of Sunday night snowfall will be fluffier, but high winds will result in lots of drifting on the trails. The high density of the sleet will actually help the drifting from getting too excessive. 15-30 still seems like a good range and its the kind that doesn't melt easy which will serve us well in another month.

Both Monday and Tuesday look to feature some outstanding skiing, just prepare for the elements that will include single digit temperatures and wind gusts up over 40 on the summits. Clouds and lighter snow showers are indicated to continue with sparse sunshine if at all. Winds are a bit lighter, temperatures are a bit less cold, and sunshine more prevalent on Wednesday when our next storm will be gathering in the south. I always love a good Miller-A event and the storm, Thursday Feb 20 appears to be a good one though not quite guaranteed. Coastal areas seem more favored to get the best of this storm as opposed to the interior with areas of Vermont getting a more gentle grazing though things tend to shift in the final days so stay tuned. Temperatures will remain chilly through Feb 23rd but will moderate. Friday should include some wind thanks to the departing storm followed by seasonable temperatures and perhaps some light snow for the last full weekend of February.

We defended well Thursday and now we await the strongest winter storm of the season with 15-30 expected, mostly Sunday

The Mad River Valley played some very clutch defense on Thursday. No, we weren't in the bullseye, but I was getting haunted by some of that high resolution data spitting out a tenth of an inch of freezing rain. In the end, we scored a bit of snow, had a brief period of sleet and then back to a nice midday round of heavy snow and it skied beautifully. Forecast data has inched back in our direction for the Sunday, February 16th and this places us at the southern edge of what should be the best storm of the season. More on that in a bit.  

Decent flow of cold air is set to deposit another 1-3 inches of snow on our mountains Thursday evening setting us up for a wintry, partially bluebird Friday. Temps are mostly in the teens, though winds are expected and could gust to 40 mph at the summits and will certainly bring wind chills well below zero. Saturday's winds will be pretty quiet (enjoy that) and this will allow morning temperatures to be a bit below zero before rising into the teens Saturday afternoon under a thickening blanket of clouds. 

Here we go with our storm. Snow is expected to develop Saturday evening and intensify quickly. We won't need to worry about any complex phasing or coastal redevelopment as a already strong low pressure area is expected to advance into the Ohio Valley Saturday night and eventually evolve into a coastal bomb in the Gulf of Maine (980 mb). This trajectory is pretty solid for us, but the strong area of low pressure is predicted to be close, crossing our longitude somewhere in southern Vermont. This places us in an area where precipitation could mix with or change to sleet or a dry slot could get at us and prevent a 3 foot accumulation. Let's be honest, these are not bad problems to have. We are going to see intense snowfall regardless, especially Saturday night into early Sunday. Any sleet or storm lull would be most likely Sunday morning before more snowfall late in the day Sunday into Sunday night. Going to keep the 15-30 inch snowfall expectation the same. A northward shift could put us us under that, a southward shift places us in the 2-3 feet category. No question this is the most intense winter storm so far this season. 

With any strong storm we can expect wind. This should start becoming a factor Sunday morning blowing from the east or east northeast for much of the ski day. During the evening, we should see winds shift and become westerly. Snow should continue into Sunday night and become lighter snow showers by the ski day Monday. Models are keeping the core of the coldest air to our west now as of some recent model updates and this is somewhat laughable as winds will ferocious both Monday and Tuesday and gusts up past 40 mph at the summit won't have anyone really missing the core of this cold air. Actual temps both Monday and Tuesday on the mountain will be in the single numbers. Winds will then relax a touch for Wednesday and temperatures will moderate some. This potential Miller-A type storm is still a possibility for someone and deserves watching with a possible impact on Thursday. Any storm would then clear for Friday when we can still expect some wind though temperatures will continue to slowly moderate. 

Ridging in western North America continues to be indicated for the last week of February giving us the +PNA structure I mentioned the other day. Most of the simulations continue to show moderating temperatures, but this remains an encouraging sign for what has been an amazing month so far.

Updates on our two storms over the next 5 days and a possible third to watch late next week

Tuesday's clouds are expected to linger into the overnight just enough to prevent an excessively cold Wednesday morning. We then are expecting another interval of February sunshine for Wednesday and not much wind atop the small accumulation of snow. We have eyes on two storms over the next 5 days and a potential third is out there late next week. Can't say I am entirely happy with the trends though it remains a pretty good forecast for northern Vermont overall. 

Storm number 1 appears to be a real head scratcher for me. Sure we are still competing with a pesky southeast ridge though arctic air has proven strong enough to overwhelm this feature and provide Washington, DC with several inches of snow which is highly unusual in this jet stream. The next wave of low pressure is expected to proceed through the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and into the eastern Great Lakes early Thursday. There is a coastal transfer but given the building -AO, I am perplexed as to why it isn't stronger. The shift in storm track is not a good one for Vermont though in spite of this, we still should be on the receiving end of a decent front-end thump and some powder for skiers for the Thursday ski day. This is shown on one model while most of the others a smaller accumulation than I would think under the circumstances followed by a change to sleet Thursday morning and perhaps a small dose of the dreaded freezing rain during the midday period. I don't think the ice will be a significant problem and I am instead hoping for a trend showing a nice plastering of 6-10 inches of snow Thursday morning. It's not shown now unfortunately, just 3-6 inches with some sleet for the start of the ski day.

Light snow showers are expected as arctic makes a return to Vermont for Friday. Expect a cold, blustery and sunny day with temperatures in the teens. Clouds then return for Saturday and snow from storm 2 is expected to arrive sometime Saturday evening. Ensembles, in the aggregate, are still quite bullish on the Saturday event though this system has also shifted slightly north and yes, we would like this trend to stop as of now.  Fueled by robust upper air support, this storm will start like many of the great ones, with severe weather in the south. Low pressure will then take aim at New England for Sunday with a narrowing range of possible outcomes. The worst appears to be a trajectory right over northern Vermont and this would limit the snowfall to a small accumulation on the front end  and a healthier 5-10 on the back Sunday evening and night. A track over central or southern New England would yield a much better 15-30 inch like result as we would remain in the healthy cold conveyor of the storm for an extended period on Sunday into Monday. 

In the last update, I made mention of the President's Day holiday and that the air looked cold but not bitterly cold. More recent indications would suggest that a period of bitterly cold temperatures accompanied by high winds is now more likely centered around the Monday to Tuesday time frame. Right now Monday appears to be the windiest with readings in the vicinity of 10 and Tuesday appears to be the coldest with readings near zero and winds remaining formidable. I expect some good skiing those days, but prepare for the elements.The remainder of the week features gradually softening cold and a potential third storm brewing over the south. Ensembles have been moving this sucker around from run to run, but the setup appears very good for a Miller A type storm which means some sort of strong low pressure area moving up the coast (as opposed to many storms which come at us from the west). A long way to go on this  weather system. 

Looks like we get a bit of support from the PNA for the last week of February and when combined with the currently building negative AO, should provide us with another wintry week to finish a fantastic month. 

 

Vermont remains on the cold side of an intense temperature clash that means big storms over the next 7 days

Another fantastic weekend in the books and one has to go back quite a long way to remember so many winning weekends with the season still in the vicinity of the half way mark. There's much to discuss and when weather maps look like this, smaller details can get missed or glossed over so apologies for that in advance. 

A core of bitterly cold air will attempt to build across northern New England early this week. While the most intense part of this airmass is expected to remain to our northwest, it is nonetheless impressive to see sub-zero readings (Tuesday and Wednesday morning) with such a strong jet stream ridge across southeast North America. Such is the playing field this week and when you mix it all together, you can create all kinds of intriguing weather situations.  In the near term, its just really the chilly temperatures that will be the story. Some partial sunshine can be expected for Monday with temperatures in the teens. The polar jet is expected to bring a weak disturbance with just enough moisture to induce a bit of snowfall Tuesday. The heaviest precipitation will be building across the southeast in this period, but will be well south of Vermont.  The 1-4 inches of snow Tuesday precedes a fair weather though quite arctic high pressure center which will temporarily build across the state and and allow for clearing late in the day Tuesday and then a very sub-zero night when readings could reach -10 or -15. Following the cold and calm bluebird Wednesday, clouds will be on the increase and the fun begins. 

There are two big weather systems to contend with over the next week. The first on Thursday has an initial low that is now forecast to track a bit farther north than what was indicated a few days ago. Though I am not quite sure the track has been nailed down yet, I am confident in a critical energy transfer which should ensure snow for northern Vermont. The trajectory of the initial storm remains critical as it will determine whether we are supplied with the best conveyor of moisture and get a 10-20 inch storm or a 4-8 inch storm. The energy transfer is also key as a robust one should assist us with the moisture question and eliminating the problem of having an initial storm travel over the Adirondacks. The action is expected to begin Thursday morning and I am curious to see how models handle this over the next few days. This is the time of the year for energy transfers, not big wound up areas of low pressure in the eastern Great Lakes and an enhancement of the former will help us nail down one of the better snow events of the season. This system is also a fast moving one, riding that furious jet which is fueled by the clashing of jet stream features (the polar one and the southeast ridge). Drier air is expected to take over by Friday, which is expected to be blustery no matter what the storm does and chilly with temperatures in the teens and below zero wind chills. 

Is the storm expected for February 16th finally going to evolve into the big one ? Ensembles have been trending that way in their simulations over the past few days. This is a storm expected to get a massive amount of fuel from the Gulf that will likely include a violent day of severe weather in the south on Saturday, February 15th. Winter storms that orginate this way, with convective energy near the Gulf, often do become the historic nor'easters we remember years later and I am very confident of a very strong area of low pressure moving northeast toward us later in the weekend. The particulars beyond this will need to be sorted out, but most of the questions relate to the track and strength of the storm and not a phase or an energy transfer and this eliminates some moving parts. Still the storm could get pushed south or north limiting the snowfall. Yes, a big amplifier, even in this weather pattern could bring mixed precipitation though I still consider it less likely verses an all snow scenario. 

Still expecting the negative AO to dominate the back part of February. This has been the missing ingredient in teleconnection speak over the past month with the cold induced mostly by the EPO and PNA, both of which have been very favorable with the former often being underestimated and the latter responsible for the unfortunate situation in Southern California. A pattern dominated by a negative AO such as this one usually consists of a softer chill as opposed to bitterly cold temperatures and a constant threat for east coast storms. Enjoy folks and hope for big results this week ! 

Fantastic snow setup emerging with 4-8 inches of cold snow this weekend and a big one possible Feb 13-14

It's been both a snowy and cold week across interior New England. The first 7 days of February has in fact seen lower temperatures than what we saw in the recent cold month of January. And this has all happened while much of the southern United States has experienced temperatures more typical of mid-Spring. This raging north to south temperature battle is expected to continue for the next 10 days and will be responsible for a very interesting set of weather maps which, if even half of these verify, will result in a lot of snow for us.

Still expecting some snow showers to linger into early Saturday and then it appears to be a very seasonable February day. Sunshine should dim as the day progresses and winds are expected to eventually become relatively calm. Even though some snowfall is approaching, visibility should stay very good throughout the day. The track of the storm responsible for the snow Saturday night has shifted south just a touch and the heaviest snowfall has also shifted south. It's a quick moving storm and is still poised to deposit a modest and cold snowfall for MRG. Snow begins in the evening and ends as a light snowfall midday Sunday. Expect a 4-8 inches total for ski day Sunday with temperatures holding in the high teens. .

As mentioned, this is really a battle royale as arctic cold covering much of southern Canada next week attempts to undercut a rather formidable ridge positioned over southeast North America. There are multiple waves of low pressure expected to form along this highly baroclinic zone. Vermont can expect a dry and cold Monday and this is our best shot for sunshine. Clouds are then expected to dominate the rest of the week along with chilly temperatures. The first wave of low pressure is currently indicated to be a snow producer for the coast while delivering inland area a glancing blow. As the week progresses, there are growing indications that the next wave of low pressure could evolve into a sizeable winter storm that could become the biggest of the season for interior areas of New England. The timing of this appears to be in the Thursday to Friday (Feb 13-14), 18 years removed from what was the best winter storm of the century for Mad River Glen. We are just less than a week away from this so expect some fine tuning. 

The potential late week snow is not the last. Ensembles indicate another amplification late in the holiday weekend, centered around the President's Day holiday. To my eyes, this appears more like another snow or storm situation rather than an excessive cold type of amplification though more cold weather is expected in the wake of this persisting through at least February 19th.  What was initially an EPO driven winter weather situation will become a more -AO driven situation and this should really reduce the risk of a thaw even beyond February 20th. In the meantime, this certainly qualifies as one of the best snow setups I've seen in Vermont in some time.

 

3-6 inches beginning midday Thursday and heavier snow appears likelier for the weekend

The bluebird special got served cold on Wednesday. We got the wind to diminish a bit from Tuesday though it certainly wasn't zero and wind chills were well below zero with actual temperatures close to zero. Never said zero so much in one sentence. The cold weather is part of our mission to flatten the pattern and eliminate the threat of mild air and rainfall late this week. Mission accomplished ! Clouds and storminess approaching Wednesday night will be greeted with a very healthy supply of cold air. The storm simply isn't amplified enough to displace the cold weather entirely and its attempt to do so will result in a decent front-end thump snow beginning midday Thursday. The snow during the ski day Thursday will fall cold, with temperatures in the teens. Those temperatures are expected to rise slowly Thursday evening and are expected to be in the upper 20's Friday morning. By that point, we can expect 3-6 inches to have fallen half of which will fall during the ski day Thursday, half later in the evening. Still appears to be a short window for some freezing drizzle late Thursday night and some above freezing temperatures with the partial clearing we can expect for Friday, but that is the extent of the thaw which at one point appeared pretty ominous on some of the model simulations. Snow showers are actually expected to return to the mountains during the afternoon Friday and continue into Friday night depositing a small accumulation ahead of the ski day Saturday. 

This winter has already reached the "pretty darn good category" having extended the stretch of rain-free weather to almost 40 days at least on the mountain. The snow we've gotten has also added up, though it certainly hasn't come all at once or from any well organized storm system. One of the better looking weather systems of the season this weekend might make a bid at providing us with the heaviest snow of the season. Some questions remain as to the exact track and though the uncertainty range is actually narrow 3-4 days out, the eventual answer will determine where the heaviest snow will fall (central or southern New England). We know the system will be moving quickly, somewhat limiting the upside on snow potential as this will be another product of the ferocious north to south temperature battle happening as we discuss. The snow would begin Saturday night, end midday Sunday and I will give readers a preliminary range of 4" (if everything goes wrong) to 16" (if everything goes right). Should be a cold snow whatever the outcome with temperatures in the teens to low 20's throughout the upcoming weekend. 

Arctic cold, the core of which should remain well north and west of Vermont, is set to reestablish a presence in New England following the exit of Sunday's system. Interestingly this arctic air is undercutting a persistent ridge located over the southeast US. A weak clipper could bring some clouds and light snow to Vermont late Monday into Tuesday of next week, but I think most of the action and our attention will focus on a building area of storminess building closer to the temperature battle line in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The setup should bring a big area of mixed precipitation to the aforementioned area and the questions revolve around what will happen to this storm as it inches its way northward as the week progresses. Most of the simulations bring some additional snow to Vermont either in the middle or later part of the week and there's certainly the possibility of a major northeast snow event somewhere. 

Beyond the later part of next week, the EPO is expected to neutralize while the AO, which has been generally positive for the last 3 weeks is expected to turn negative (supportive of cold) and stay that way through the middle part of February. The critical piece of information to take from all this, at least as I see it, is that there is nothing to dislodge the core of cold that is currently situated over western Canada. It should remain in place for much of the month and be a major factor in the weather across New England, especially as the pattern allows some of that cold to push eastward after February 11.

Snow tonight, less mild late this week, more snow this weekend all part of a beautiful update !

 Lots of good stuff in this update and I can't help but continue to think of where we were last February in contrast to now. In 2024 we had a historic continental scouring of arctic air and I was trying to take solace in the fact that Vermont was only 10 degrees above normal as opposed to 25. Though the pattern has realigned with the core of the cold now focused on areas farther west, that core of cold represents some of the coldest air on the planet and large portions of Canada are set for a dramatically colder February than  the one a year ago. New England sits in one of the more interesting locations and will see cold to the north constantly doing better with pushes of milder air from the southeast. We saw that cold win out this past weekend and produce a -15 degree morning (coldest of the season in many locations) and though the forecast still includes threats of mixed precipitation and a little bit of rain, these interludes of milder air appear weaker, shorter and not an especially dominant part of the outlook for the next two weeks. 

When things are going well, you steal events like the one we can expect for Monday night. Temps will sneak above freezing in valley areas Monday. Hopefully it makes for a comfortable ski day for those heading out, but the best part is that it won't negatively impact precipitation when it arrives Monday night. Some years, it's hard to produce a decent anafrontal situation where the snowfall is induced by undercutting cold air and this appears to be one of those. It appears to be a very straightforward situation with some snow arriving after the ski day, falling steadily until about midnight and tapering to flurries thereafter. Temps will be in the upper 20's on the mountain as the snow is falling, closer to freezing in valley areas and by the time the ski day begins on Tuesday we should have 4-7 inches and by then it will be powdery with temperatures spending much of the day in the teens. 

Jet stream is set up to produce a nice period of sunshine from late Tuesday through Wednesday albeit with some very cold temperatures and in the case of Tuesday wind. Much like the weekend, the push of cold is more direct and should produce another round of sub-zero temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday morning. Wednesday's cold is the version I prefer however with excellent visibility, lots of blue skies and tolerable wind speeds that are expected to get pretty calm by late in the day. Clouds return by Thursday and temperatures will moderate and rise into the 20's. We've had our eye on Thursday's weather system for a while as one that might bring mixed precipitation, rain and/or a significant thaw. Models have all backed off on the latter two which is terrific news.  We can now expect a decent front-end thump of snow beginning in the midday hours that will change to some sort of mixture in the evening hours. Temperatures might exceed the freezing mark for several hour Thursday night, but not in a material way. I don't think the mixed precipitation will be all that significant either though it does remain a part of this equation. Colder air returns during the day Friday and temperatures fall back to sub-freezing levels accompanied by lighter snow showers. 

The 2nd in a series of storms this pattern is set to produce appears very promising for the back end of this weekend. It's a similar looking storm to the one set to impact us this Thursday only with a storm track that is further south. Because the system is still 5-6 days out, we should still anticipate some alterations but this certainly has the potential to produce significant snowfall accumulations for northern Vermont. 

Much of this update is colder themed and this covers the outlook beyond this upcoming weekend and into next week. The core of the coldest air remains well to our west and north yet we will continue to see this cold make southward intrusions into interior New England and produce days like this past Sunday or this upcoming Wednesday. I am more excited about the potential storminess however which continues to look a lot more active verses what we saw in a relatively dry, but cold January. Whatever kind of storm we get Sunday, should be out the door by early next week and will be followed by another potential storm in the middle to later part of the week after 2-3 drier days. The Euro ensemble turned much colder President's Day weekend and beyond though this is not entirely supported by the Canadian and American ensembles. Either way, its an outlook that's shifted from normal to above on a temperature range to normal to below. Just a really solid update for us Vermont loving skiers overall ! Enjoy !