Some areas of the Mad River Valley saw their first rain of 2025, but some areas way up on the mountain did not ! The southwest flow, which we've done well to avoid for much of this year so far, did provide a gut punch though as it often does. It's part of a widespread mild weather onslaught across the United States which exceeded expectations almost everywhere. Interior New England would do well in this setup to get any taste of winter and fortunately we should do better than that.
Our Thursday snow evolves from a feeble looking system spinning its way through the lower Great Lakes Wednesday. The area of low pressure is expected to gather just a bit of intensity and some additional moisture as it makes a northeast push toward Vermont. Though the storm won't be strong enough to produce any type of truly memorable powder, the trends over the past 24 hours have been positive and the area form north-central Vermont to northern New Hampshire and all the way through interior Maine appear to be positioned quite well for a decent snow. This snow should begin before daybreak Thursday and become heavy for a brief period during the midday hours. The snow will then become lighter as the afternoon progresses and evolve into more of a snow shower situation Thursday night. Temperatures continue to appear as if they will hover close to the freezing mark in valley locations, yet on the whole, the storm looks a touch colder with readings mostly in high 20's on the mountain and more limited time, if at all, for southwesterly flow to dampen things in the later afternoon (though we should expect some of that in the valley anyway). There will be more elevation sensitivity with the snowfall which should amount to 6-8 inches on the mountain Thursday with another 2-5 falling Thursday night into early Friday. Weather systems are moving briskly this week and the snow showers early Friday will dissipate and we can expect a chilly day with temperatures falling back toward the high teens.
Our 2nd in a series of storms will approach faster than what was conveyed in the previous update and begin depositing a colder snow on MRG just after midnight Saturday. Dynamically, this storm appears more impressive than Thursday though it lacks the moisture and is also poised to track right over us as opposed to the preferred trajectory - south of us. Still, we remain in line for a 2-5 inch snowfall early Saturday followed by another 3-6 inches Saturday evening and night thanks to an optimal looking snow shower setup. Expect Saturday's temperatures to remain in the 20's with lighter winds, but Sunday's readings will be close to zero. Early March sunshine will help a little Sunday, but prepare for wind gusts up to 30 mph.
The weather pattern for the first 10 days of March continues to appear supportive for winter weather though operational models continue to paint a more choppy situation. The concern revolves around a potentially big precipitation producing event and strong storm on March 5th and 6th (A Wednesday and Thursday). The storm could even have multiple acts that extend into Friday, March 7th with different results in each act. As I mentioned, there's enough support in the weather pattern for this to evolve into a major winter storm. given the support from the ridge in the northwest part of our continent. Models continue to simulate a milder scenario with an over-amplified storm in the plains making a beeline for the eastern Great Lakes and thus pumping mild air into northern New England. I am not resigned to that outcome as of yet and was encouraged as the overnight Euro model trended toward a less milder storm and some snow on the back end. Expect this forecast to evolve over time as it appears to be a complicated multi-day weather situation.
Beyond March 10th, we lose the support of the EPO and don't have many friends in high latitude places (if you know what I mean). This makes the outlook appear milder mid month and leaves us susceptible to some sort of mid-month thaw.
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