Rain and wind got us pretty good Friday morning. South winds can really rip through both the Mad River and Champlain Valleys. In the case of the latter, winds of over 40 mph helped to break the overcast, mix out any inversion and send temperature readings briefly into the middle 60's. You had about an hour to enjoy a lakeside cocktail before heavy wind driven rain and colder temperatures arrived from New York State.
The overall outlook which covers both holidays has inched in a slightly warmer direction. Trends are important to identify, both good and bad, because if they continue over a significant span of time the forecast can ultimately be very different. In this case, Vermont still looks to be in good shape, so long as the trend we've seen in the models over the past 24-36 hours doesn't continue in the same warmer direction.
Winter solstice weekend will be a dust on crust situation. Enough snow showers Friday night for an accumulation, but not enough for more than an inch or two. Saturday will feature a few flurries, diminished yet still gusty winds along with some intervals of sunshine .Temperatures on the mountain are likely to hold near 20 degrees. Very light snow is again possible Saturday night with little accumulation expected and this sets the stage for a blustery solstice with readings in the high 20's.
Christmas week starts chilly with arctic air sending temperatures in to the teens. I can't promise a total bluebird kind of day though some sun appears likely. We may have enough low level instability to produce some snow showers Monday afternoon and it's worth mentioning since winds appear aligned in a favorable northwest direction for us. Snow is more likely on Tuesday, coming from a west to east moving clipper-like system. I expect a decent period of powdery snow from this and a preliminary guess would be 3-6 inches. Snow flurries will continue into Christmas Eve along with 20-30 degree temperatures followed by a generally cloudy Christmas with readings near but not really above the critical freezing threshold.
I had to stare at many different model simulations a good long time to try and sort out some potential details worth sharing. Generally the story remains the same with a very warm ridge parked over the central United States trying to push that warmth northeastward. Interior New England continues to appear to be a good strategic place to hide from the warm air and retain a chance for some wintry weather. That said, a few days look more dicey. Warmth will attempt at making one push north on December 26h and this could push temperatures back above the freezing mark on that Friday. Cold appears poised to fight back control of the region for the ensuing weekend and some winter weather in the form of snowfall could accompany that.
New Year's week has a very similar roster of players. More warmth in the central U.S.while cold fights to stay in control of the northeast. There's been several simulations showing storminess and I would guess we will be on the receiving end of at least one big weather producer. The very persistent and positive AO is a big reason for the southern latitude warmth. At the same time, the action in the Pacific continues to be more favorable farther north so I remain optimistic that we can finish 2025 with some excitement.
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