Happy corn-horn day Tuesday with some sunshine, the mild weather this weekend will feature much more cloudiness

Our first big springtime corn horn day is on time and on target for Tuesday. Early sunshine and blustery southwest winds will send readings soaring from sub-freezing levels in the very early morning to 50 degrees by 10 am. Even areas well up on the mountain should get impacted and could touch 50 degrees while areas near the base see temperatures up near 60. And just like that, it's over. Wednesday is back to sub-freezing cold with readings holding in the high 20's. Early Sunshine gives way to clouds and winds should remain quiet. 

The increase in cloudiness on Wednesday does precede a bit of light overrunning snowfall. We aren't expecting much early Thursday, most of which (at least during the day) should remain cloudy with the snow amounting to less than 2 inches very early in the day. Temperatures are expected to sneak above freezing again on Thursday and then soar into the 40's Friday as southerly flow envelops most of New England. 

This is simply not an exciting March pattern as of now. The jet stream in the Pacific has become very hostile and simply overwhelming parameters that might support coach, which there aren't too many of anyway. Arctic air has remained close enough this week to limit the corn horn weather to one day this week, but is expected to retreat thanks the storm discussed in the last update which is poised to track deep into Quebec this weekend. The storm does appear pretty stretched out by the time rainfall arrives in Vermont on Sunday. Before that happens, clouds should limit the visibility and the excessive temperatures. Despite that, we should still prepare for an extended stretch where readings exceed 40 degrees including the overnights when temperatures Friday and Saturday nights will not fall too much. Regarding the rain producing storm, there are hints that low pressure could help refocus the storm on the coast. Were this to be in the case, it would be nice if this would limit the rainfall across Vermont which would limit the melt-off and associated flood risk. Snowfall, if we get any out of this storm, would come during the day Monday as the storm is pulling away and colder temperatures finally work their way back into the state. 

The March 17-21st period does not appear especially wintry or cold. There's another storm to contend with right around the time of the spring equinox which would be late in this period. Though we have a better chance at a improved storm trajectory, the supply of cold air appears limited. The last full week March appears a bit better as conditions in the Pacific become less hostile and some support emerges from both the PNA nad NAO indices.

More concerns in the outlook, but winter is back for the weekend and a good corn horn day is on the way for Tuesday

Can't say I was especially enamored with model simulations and what they were showing over the next two weeks. I'll discuss why in a bit. In the meantime there is some wintry weather worth discussing for the weekend before we get into the mode of choppier weather conditions 

The snowfall Thursday night did not materialize as I had hoped. Jay Peak got about what I had expected for Mad River Glen and for them it was a bit of an under-performance. Stability parameters Friday night into Saturday are supportive for some snow and glancing at radar, one can see an area of snow showers and squalls trying to drift north. Not all of the short range models are convinced of a elevation sensitive accumulation Friday night, but those same models are not doing a good job of depicting the area of snow showers Friday afternoon so I am going to assume we can score a small accumulation before the ski day Saturday. The snow showers would then lighten as Saturday progresses and clouds may even give way to a bit of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures should remain in the low 20's accompanied by blustery winds. These winds will lessen just a little for Sunday when we should see a mix of clouds and sunshine and afternoon temperatures closer to 30. 

There is a disturbing warming trend in the outlook yet it doesn't apply to the March 10-14 day period, this comes later. In this stretch, the mild surge is now a one day feature and it could be preceded by period of light snow Monday morning. Most of Monday should consist of clouds, lighter winds and temperatures in the 30's. Tuesday is the torch where temperatures, well up on the mountain ,get well into the 50's and this should be accompanied by gusty southwest winds which will eat away at the snowpack, especially across valley areas. This appears to be an exceptional corn horn day given the temperatures and the expectations for sunshine. It won't last however as arctic air is expected to return for Wednesday sending temperatures back below the freezing mark . Models don't entirely agree on specifics, yet their have been hints, most notably on the reliable Euro model of a decent overrunning setup for some snowfall on Thursday March 13th. Aside from that potential, the Ides of March magic seems to be alluding us right now. 

The outlook for the middle weekend in March or the 15th and 16th appears to be the most concerning. For much of this winter season, thanks largely to a tamed jet stream in the Pacific, we've avoided these overly fueled, early amplified Midwest storms. We suffered through rain on March 5th and appear to have another ominous situation  around March 16th when a deep zone of southerly flow is indicated to drive mild air well into Quebec. There's more than a week between this update and the potential situation just discussed which means there's some time for expectations to evolve and they often do. We certainly need this storm to come out of the Rocky Mountains in a less amplified state than currently indicated and this might allow some of the colder air to our north to become a more significant factor. As it stands now, it appears to be a threatening wind and rain event, perhaps more damaging than what we saw a few days ago. 

Colder air would arrive behind this system, though the pattern doesn't appear overwhelmingly cold and resembles a more typical late March set up. The Pacific has suddenly gotten hostile in March and its unfortunately been timed with a lack of blocking in the jet stream. Cold arctic is expected to remain in Canada, remaining at least somewhat in close proximity, but we are short on mechanisms to bring that cold southward or hold it in place which is why the outlook has moved in this choppier direction.

Outlook continues to inch in the cooler direction for the rest of the month

Rain never fails to be a big downer during the ski season, but the outlook going forward continues to inch in a cooler direction and models are starting to show opportunities for significant snowfall at varying times. The National Weather Service has not opted to issue Flood Warnings which is encouraging and they project ice jams to be isolated. There will be melt off and rivers and streams are expected to rise yet with rainfall totals likely to stay less than an inch and temperatures indicated to stay below 50, it will help limit the flood risk. Across low lying areas, the melting will  continue through Thursday, another mild day with some occasional light rain and temperatures holding in the 40's. We will see high cooler temperatures across higher elevation areas as Thursday progresses and snow showers will develop Thursday night. Temperatures have trended colder for Thursday night and Friday and the snow, at least across the high country, looks powdery with readings falling into the 20's. Willing to upgrade snowfall expectations to the 2-5 inch range by the ski day Friday, a wintry day with readings holding in the 20's and a stiff west to northwest wind. 

Some flurries and light snow showers are expected both Friday and Saturday and with that comes a dusting of snow. Aside from that, the weekend is seasonable with a continuation of sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain and some intervals of sunshine. The blustery conditions continue into Saturday and then winds are expected to abate somewhat for Sunday. 

Seasonable March weather is expected to linger into Monday and then we still have this mild period threatening us in the March 11-14 period. I have to say however, the mild push northward is starting to look tenuous in northern New England and arctic air is starting to show its face on the outskirts of this weather picture. At the moment, the colder air is indicated to impact the Quebec weather situation more than ours, but the way things are trending, I have a feeling we are going to more shifting and a more abbreviated warm stretch next week. A storm is indicated for late next week and if enough arctic air could get involved, it would not at all be unreasonable to see some snow enter the forecast picture. For now, I think its reasonable to expect one spring-like day with the milder weather focused more on areas farther south. The storm later in the week should come to fruition in some form, but the outcome could include a wide range of scenarios. 

The longer range continues to inch cooler and snowfall opportunities are indicated on several models though we've had models show a mixed bag of weather also. Teleconnection indices have neutralized, but they aren't screaming cold yet; instead, ensembles are showing just a stormy pattern with sporadic intrusions of arctic air.

Weather conditions to take a not so friendly roller coaster ride this week

The burst of March cold air came at us with one big uppercut and sometimes when that happens, the punch is wasted and weather conditions prove to be very changeable. Such is the case with this week which started with temperatures near -10 Monday morning and will undergo a roller coaster ride over the next few days. 

The bad outcome we expect with the upcoming storm is a result of bad timing and circumstances which result in what will be a cyclone that matures too early and tracks way too far north. I've seen many storms have a similar fate in the early winter months and certainly less in the later winter months though it certainly happens. Clear skies early Tuesday morning will allow temperatures to start in the single numbers but then quickly rise even as clouds increase throughout the day as southerly flow begins to establish itself over the region. The rain stays away Tuesday and Tuesday night though many areas will see above freezing temperatures Tuesday afternoon and not much of a drop off during the ensuing overnight. The rain arrives early Wednesday. Sections of the upper mountain have yet to see plain rain in 2025 and the streak will officially end with the wet weather on Wednesday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30's up high and 40's in the valley and just under an inch of rain is currently being indicated. Expect some flood concerns and some additional ice jam concerns on certain rivers and this is another excellent opportunity to point folks toward the National Weather Service as they are only organization equipped to provide detailed information in events such as this one. I might also add that my old friend Bob Hart, who teaches at Florida State, has provided free, illustrated model cross sections to the public domain and never asked for a dime. He like many of us has not been happy with the recent firings and has pulled the plug on his operation which has been up and running for 30 years. You can see his message here if you like Bob's Cool Weather Site .  Perhaps I've gotten too spoiled or old, but I've relied very heavily on this website during many weather situations here and it certainly hurts not having it. Anyway, if we can keep the rain at less than in inch, keep temperatures below 50 and can keep the wind down, the flooding won't be as severe as what we saw a few Decembers ago. I feel confident on the first  two conditions and less so about the third. At least in the exposed summits and high elevation areas, we should expect some high winds Wednesday night. 

Conditions should dry out Thursday in valley areas while lighter rain showers become snow showers across the high country. Temperatures will return to the freezing mark up high, but remain in the 40's below 1,500 feet. Accumulating is likely Thursday night into early Friday especially in the Stowe to Jay corridor and for us to a lesser extent. Subject to a later revision, I would expect 1-3 inches with most of it falling before the ski day Friday 

Temperatures are expected to return to more seasonable levels this upcoming weekend. The weather remains somewhat of a question and as much as I wish for one answer we are likely going to get another. The GFS hammers the northeast with a crippling snowstorm and almost everyone would get impacted and we would get a round of epic conditions before another run of mild weather. There is absolutely no support for such an outcome on the Euro Ensembles and likewise from the Canadian or its ensemble members. Given that, don't wishcast yourself toward a disappointment. The chances aren't zero, but not higher than 10 percent. 

The longer range outlook has trended somewhat cooler though I would be hesitant to call it cold. Before that, the period between March 11-14 continues to look very mild and could feature a multi-day stretch of spring-like weather before the cooler and somewhat stormier regime that I alluded to takes over. 

Another shout out to Sugarbush snow reporter Lucy Welch for speaking truth to power. I don't know her personally, but if she wants to write about snow on my blog she's welcome to do it.

Weather pattern throwing hurdles at us as we head toward March

Thursday's snow didn't quite work out to what I had hoped. We got about half as much as expected got another dose of the southwesterly blues late in the afternoon which warmed temperatures on the lower mountain dramatically for a what amounted to a few hours. When it comes to weather, sometimes the bad news just comes in a big wave and this appears to be one of those days. 

The upper part of our mountains have performed just fine this week and for the most part, managed to weather the various warm pushes quite well. The snow stake at Mansfield is basically showing the depth at a peak on 2/27, even as valley areas lost a bit of their snow. We won't see additional losses of snow this weekend and still have some snow in the forecast, yet this clipper is also not materializing into the snow producing weather system that it could have been. 

Snow will arrive very late Friday evening and continue into early Saturday, depositing 2-4 inches. Aesthetically, this is a nice looking weather feature, but it simply is taking a sharp left turn into Quebec too early and leaving us in a drier quadrant of the storm; in fact, one would need to travel well north of Montreal to get into the better conveyor of moisture.  Expect a midday break in snowfall during the day Saturday aside from a few flurries followed by a round of evening snow showers. With the storm pulling so far to the north and given the amount of ice on Lake Champlain, it is pretty hard to get bullish on the back-end snow. Models do indicate some and expecting an additional 1-3 is not a big ask or an unreasonable expectation. Temperatures will be up around the freezing mark again on Saturday during the day and sharply fall off Saturday night into Sunday. The ski day Sunday looks frigid with single digit temperatures accompanied by 30 mph wind gusts. Most of the day will be bluebird which will certainly help. 

The mid-week storm will rank as the most frustrating moment of the season for me weather-wise. We have this beautiful ridge setting up in western Canada and undercutting split flow that in many cases can send a major winter storm in our direction. Unfortunately, it doesn't always work the way conventional wisdom would suggest. The cold late this weekend is poorly timed and we don't have the blocking mechanism to hold it in place. By the middle of the week, a overly mature, severe weather producing storm will make its way into the plains and head toward the central Great Lakes. A weaker, less amplified system would be more likely to transfer its energy to the coast and thwart a warm up and this storm just appears too dominant for such a fate. Unless we see some changes late in this forecasting game which is still possible, we will get an early March thaw and some rain when we don't deserve one. Monday is a bluebird special with -10 degree morning readings warming to 20 in the afternoon, Tuesday we are up into the 30's with early sun followed by clouds and then the mild weather will make its push. There have been some indications of some overrunning snow Tuesday night and although this is certainly possible, Wednesday appears windy and mild with rain up and down the mountain late in the day and perhaps a bit of heavy rain in the evening or overnight hours. Given the depth of the snow, especially over the high country, we really have to hope we can minimize the rain and wind as they are, aside from eating away at skiable snow, present a flood risk for areas prone to river flooding. Wind and cooler temperatures are expected to follow for Thursday with some back end snow likely as the day progresses. There is a 2nd weather feature, also a product of the split flow and this is expected to have some sort of east coast impact Friday into Saturday March 8th. 

The EPO is expected to take an adverse turn by the 2nd week of March and this is going to bring us some hurdles for the middle part of March as well. When the Pacific gets a bit angry like this, much of the unsettled weather is focused on the western United States and cold is often bottled up in the northern part of the continent. Weather systems can defy conventional wisdom as the storm next week seems intent on proving, but ensembles are not showing the northeast to be an especially favored location for winter weather in the middle of the month. Overall it's a somewhat surprising turn in the weather pattern, yet the EPO has also been favorable a lot more than I expected given conditions in the Pacific Ocean going into the season. 

Lastly, I want to give a shout out to the folks at NOAA and the pain they are enduring from yesterday's firings that were done without cause. There are times I might disagree with a product or a forecast, but that does not suggest I don't respect the work they do. The private sector is not equipped and does not want the responsibility of warning in extreme weather situations and the organization has come a long way over the past decades as to the way it communicates to the public in those situations. Additionally, collecting upper air data, maintaining radar sites, running computer models, providing data that keeps our airplanes from crashing, marine forecasts that keep mariners out of trouble, river forecast centers that monitor flood risk, maintaining our network of satellites and monitoring air quality levels are all pretty vital. Though plenty of tax dollars  are wasted, NOAA is a pretty well run outfit, especially considering they make all these efforts publicly available so that stooges like me can blog about it for 20 years specific to our mountains. I wouldn't be able to do it without their efforts.

Nice looking short term outlook on snow, watching a storm next week and a potentially milder middle of March

 Some areas of the Mad River Valley saw their first rain of 2025, but some areas way up on the mountain did not ! The southwest flow, which we've done well to avoid for much of this year so far, did provide a gut punch though as it often does. It's part of a widespread mild weather onslaught across the United States which exceeded expectations almost everywhere. Interior New England would do well in this setup to get any taste of winter and fortunately we should do better than that. 

Our Thursday snow evolves from a feeble looking system spinning its way through the lower Great Lakes Wednesday. The area of low pressure is expected to gather just a bit of intensity and some additional moisture as it makes a northeast push toward Vermont. Though the storm won't be strong enough to produce any type of truly memorable powder, the trends over the past 24 hours have been positive and the area form north-central Vermont to northern New Hampshire and all the way through interior Maine appear to be positioned quite well for a decent snow. This snow should begin before daybreak Thursday and become heavy for a brief period during the midday hours. The snow will then become lighter as the afternoon progresses and evolve into more of a snow shower situation Thursday night. Temperatures continue to appear as if they will hover close to the freezing mark in valley locations, yet on the whole, the storm looks a touch colder with readings mostly in high 20's on the mountain and more limited time, if at all, for southwesterly flow to dampen things in the later afternoon (though we should expect some of that in the valley anyway). There will be more elevation sensitivity with the snowfall which should amount to 6-8 inches on the mountain Thursday with another 2-5 falling Thursday night into early Friday. Weather systems are moving briskly this week and the snow showers early Friday will dissipate and we can expect a chilly day with temperatures falling back toward the high teens. 

Our 2nd in a series of storms will approach faster than what was conveyed in the previous update and begin depositing a colder snow on MRG just after midnight Saturday.  Dynamically, this storm appears more impressive than Thursday though it lacks the moisture and is also poised to track right over us as opposed to the preferred trajectory - south of us. Still, we remain in line for a 2-5 inch snowfall early Saturday followed by another 3-6 inches Saturday evening and night thanks to an optimal looking snow shower setup. Expect Saturday's temperatures to remain in the 20's with lighter winds, but Sunday's readings will be close to zero. Early March sunshine will help a little Sunday, but prepare for wind gusts up to 30 mph. 

The weather pattern for the first 10 days of March continues to appear supportive for winter weather though operational models continue to paint a more choppy situation. The concern revolves around a potentially big precipitation producing event and strong storm on March 5th and 6th (A Wednesday and Thursday). The storm could even have multiple acts that extend into Friday, March 7th with different results in each act. As I mentioned, there's enough support in the weather pattern for this to evolve into a major winter storm. given the support from the ridge in the northwest part of our continent. Models continue to simulate a milder scenario with an over-amplified storm in the plains making a beeline for the eastern Great Lakes and thus pumping mild air into northern New England. I am not resigned to that outcome as of yet and was encouraged as the overnight Euro model trended toward a less milder storm and some snow on the back end. Expect this forecast to evolve over time as it appears to be a complicated multi-day weather situation. 

Beyond March 10th, we lose the support of the EPO and don't have many friends in high latitude places (if you know what I mean). This makes the outlook appear milder mid month and leaves us susceptible to some sort of mid-month thaw. 

3 snowfall opportunities over the next 5-6 days with the cold pattern backing off some in early March

Temperatures moderated significantly Monday and it's dramatic enough that one can probably start to smell the next season. Regardless of how the weather pattern turns out, March always features a handful of spring-like days and very often its sandwiched around some of the best powder days of the year. If I had to guess, we should more of that this year. 

The short term outlook reflects much of what was just described. I get a little nervous when I see strong periods of south of southwest flow show up over northern Vermont. Those are often not kind to our valley in the winter as it can quite often get warmer than anticipated and eat a lot of snow. In the case of this week, those periods appear isolated and capable of melting some snow in valley areas while the high terrain remains close to the freezing mark. There's also some chances for snowfall that need to be highlighted so here are the details. The first "torch" period comes Monday night and fortunately the flow is expected to weaken by daybreak. My hope is that temperatures just hang out near the freezing mark and thus any wind isn't especially damaging. Clouds and lighter winds Tuesday should prevent readings from getting too high, yet they will be above 40 in valley locations and above freezing for the first time in many lower mountain locations. Some elevation sensitive precipitation then arrives in the afternoon and this should mean snowfall for the mountains and a mix in valley locations. Cooler temperatures Tuesday night should allow the snow to accumulate 2-4 inches by the ski day Wednesday with a slushy inch or so in valley locations. Aside from some lingering flurries Wednesday morning, the day will be dry with some intervals of sunshine. The now retreated polar air barely makes a reappearance in northern Vermont and just in time for the arrival of our next system which appears benign but has enough moisture to make some noise. I would very much prefer it if this very weak area of low pressure early Thursday would make a pass just a bit further south as opposed to veering left at the last 2nd into Quebec. As it stands, the northern half of Vermont is in line for a decent dose of overrunning snowfall early Thursday and then another period of warming south to southwest flow in the afternoon. The day is thus expected to feature some powdery mountain turns in the morning and valley melting in the afternoon, a fairly typical trait for March. The snow shower setup for Friday looks promising and this is likely going to make it the best of the week with temperatures falling back toward 20 degrees and healthy north to northwest flow bringing in some supplemental moisture. Total snowfall appears to be in the 3-6 inch category Thursday and will include some wet snow in lower elevations and a powdery 3-6 for Friday with the return of gusty winds. Warm periods appear to be Monday night and Thursday afternoon. 

2024-25 has had a distinct trend of Sunday powder days and the weather is lining up to present that to us again on the first full weekend in March. Models have been split as to the track of what is expected to be a very vigorous clipper system and one that should start bringing snow to northern Vermont late Saturday into Saturday night followed by snow showers on Sunday. Saturday's temps appear seasonable with lighter winds under the clouds and some potential afternoon snow while Sunday appears very cold with temperatures 10-15 along with some wind. Final snowfall will depend on the track, but I would put odds of 3 inches of powder for Sunday at 70 percent. 

Ensembles have backed off the intensity of the cold pattern for early March though they are still supportive of a generally favorable jet stream through March 10th. It's probably worth highlighting a potential trouble spot in the recent European ensemble data around March 5th and 6th though given the supportive feedback mechanisms coming off a cold winter, this trouble spot could easily become our next chance for a big snow. Regardless, there will be several opportunities for some early March snowfall beginning with the Sunday event already highlighted.