I am sure the blog has plenty of readers in the big city locations who are getting slammed with news and hype regarding the upcoming winter storm. This system was discussed Thursday in more benign details and major media outlets are now using much stronger language (no doubt to assist in the ratings war) to talk up the weekend storm. In this particular case, the storm will prove worthy of such language. It looks very similar in many respects to another historic storm in another El Nino year commonly referred to amongst us weather geeks as the "Megalopitan snowstorm of 1983". It like this one, formed in the Gulf, moved off and up the Atlantic Coast and absolutely crippled the northeast corridor with historic snow. The heaviest of this snow occurred during a Friday rush hour where the rate of snowfall increased to as much as 5 inches per hour leaving a few motorists stranded in some very unexciting locations (Like the ramp of the Lincoln Tunnel). This storm will bring similar type snows to many of the same locations and will make all sorts of headlines and may enter the record books in a few spots. At MRG, it will be just another day and a dry one at that. The snow will fail to make it to our beloved location and we will simply have to look ahead for our next opportunity.
I have received a few emails regarding the Christmas event and a few of these emails have expressed concern about recent model data. Yes, there have been hints of a less than optimal track to our Christmas storm but I will not be a "model hugger" and would rather try and see the forest for the trees. This is a little pretentious on my part and I apologize in advance but my view has been that rain or ice will have a difficult time impacting MRG for the rest of the month. We have a vigorous and very favorable blocking pattern and I think it will work its magic and prevent these adverse situations such as rain or ice. This storm is another El Nino driven product and it will advance through the southern Plains during the middle of week before becoming "occluded" somewhere in the eastern third of the country. An "occlusion" occurs when the upper level low pressure center and low level low pressure center are on top of each other or "vertically stacked". It will prevent the storm from reaching historic proportions and it will wrap some mild air into coastal areas of the northeast around Christmas time. The details are still a little hazy but I would expect some modest snows Christmas Day and some significant terrain enhanced snow for at least a day in the wake of this storm. It should prove to be a good weekend for skiing but time will tell. Storms that are vertically stacked rarely deepen but they have a favorable stability and shearing profile for terrain enhanced snow and I would expect to see that in the forecast in a few days.
The pattern will remain blocked through the new year although relatively free of extreme cold. I would expect to see the continuation of an active southern branch of the jet stream and another storm around the start of the upcoming decade !
Friday, December 18, 2009
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Chilly pattern will turn snowy around Christmas, maybe sooner if we are very lucky
It will take more than luck to get a powder day Friday or Saturday. Very dry air and the low and mid levels of the troposphere combined with a rather unfavorable shearing environment will make terrain induced powder very unlikely for the re-opening of MRG. The pattern, as promised, has turned quite favorable but the fruits of mother nature's labor usually waits, sometimes up to a few weeks. I would remiss however were I not to mention the trouble lurking in the southern branch this weekend. The same branch of the jet stream responsible for the rain across the Gulf Coast and lots of it. This is a very common byproduct of El Nino and it has been very evident so far this winter. The southern branch of the jet stream will prove its worth this year on more than one occasion. One possible occasion could come late this weekend as energy in the southern branch creates a significant precipitation producer over the Carolinas and Virginia. Models suggest this system goes out to sea from here with little impact on the northeast. I think models may suggest this time and again with many systems this year and on one or two occasions these systems will turn out stronger, amplify the pattern more significantly and surprise the northeast with big time winter weather. It is unlikely this happens Sunday evening into Monday but its worth watching how models handle this system going forward.
Our next system and one certainly worth our attention arrives around the time of Christmas Eve. It is a more organized system which will exit the Rockies during the middle of the week and progress east. The track of this system will be farther south than a similar system last week. It nonetheless appears to be our best chance for significant snows. It is a bit early to prepare for a big event as many things will change as the looking glass is de-fogged. I am optimistic however for a nice little Christmas thumping. Santa still owes me for 2005 so perhaps he will deliver the goods this year.
No change to the very optimistic balance of the month outlook. Expect a few more opportunities for snow through the duration of the month and a very minimal chance for rain. Not going to say it can't happen but the chances this year are substantially less than in any other Christmas holiday blogged here at the SCWB.
Our next system and one certainly worth our attention arrives around the time of Christmas Eve. It is a more organized system which will exit the Rockies during the middle of the week and progress east. The track of this system will be farther south than a similar system last week. It nonetheless appears to be our best chance for significant snows. It is a bit early to prepare for a big event as many things will change as the looking glass is de-fogged. I am optimistic however for a nice little Christmas thumping. Santa still owes me for 2005 so perhaps he will deliver the goods this year.
No change to the very optimistic balance of the month outlook. Expect a few more opportunities for snow through the duration of the month and a very minimal chance for rain. Not going to say it can't happen but the chances this year are substantially less than in any other Christmas holiday blogged here at the SCWB.
Monday, December 14, 2009
"Block" of gold delivers a powdery ride through the rest of 2009
And since the SWCB is funded by nobody, it allows the writer to make some politically incorrect prognostications. Like to suggest that the holiday week defined by the period between Christmas and New Years will be one of the best such periods ever perhaps similar to 2002. It is a risky proclamation to say the least but the crystal ball can look very hazy sometimes and this may be one of those times when one can make out a few things through the haze.
A brief mild break in the weather will end Tuesday with a few inches of wet snow. Much colder air will bring another inch or two of fluff Wednesday but the end of the week will be remembered for the coldest weather of the season so far with temperatures in the single numbers during the day Wednesday and Thursday and below zero temperatures at night. The polar vortex responsible for the cold will more or less get forced under the blocking in the jet stream this weekend and although the cold will modify slightly, some below zero wind chills will remain. We won't be talking about any organized weather systems this weekend although there will be weaker disturbances rotating around this upper air vortex and will likely deposit a few inches of terrain induced powder.
The pattern will turn active beginning around the time of December 22. It may take a few more days for such a change to manifest into actual big snows for the mountains but if systems in the southern branch remain out of our reach, we should still be on the receiving end of a barrage of clipper systems. The combined forces of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation should allow for even bigger things however such as a more profound jet stream amplification and a major east coast system. There shouldn't be a shortage of systems passing through the Rockies and moving across the southern half of the country the last 10 days of 2009. We would just need one of these to systems to catch an injection of energy from the Polar Jet and away we go.
A brief mild break in the weather will end Tuesday with a few inches of wet snow. Much colder air will bring another inch or two of fluff Wednesday but the end of the week will be remembered for the coldest weather of the season so far with temperatures in the single numbers during the day Wednesday and Thursday and below zero temperatures at night. The polar vortex responsible for the cold will more or less get forced under the blocking in the jet stream this weekend and although the cold will modify slightly, some below zero wind chills will remain. We won't be talking about any organized weather systems this weekend although there will be weaker disturbances rotating around this upper air vortex and will likely deposit a few inches of terrain induced powder.
The pattern will turn active beginning around the time of December 22. It may take a few more days for such a change to manifest into actual big snows for the mountains but if systems in the southern branch remain out of our reach, we should still be on the receiving end of a barrage of clipper systems. The combined forces of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation should allow for even bigger things however such as a more profound jet stream amplification and a major east coast system. There shouldn't be a shortage of systems passing through the Rockies and moving across the southern half of the country the last 10 days of 2009. We would just need one of these to systems to catch an injection of energy from the Polar Jet and away we go.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Pattern delivers an early MRG opening !
The oragraphically enhanced snow that was missing for a good part of last year has arrived early and brought the kind of fluff that can provide those "soundless" turns. Its one of the best feelings one can have and I live for those early powder turns and there should be a good amount of that as MRG officially kicks off the season. Some additonal powder can be expected through Saturday afternoon as the atmosphere undergoes a very gradual stabilization. I would not be surprised to see an additional 5-10 inches prior to the 10 AM commencement ceremonies. Saturday will continue to be blustery and cold with temperatures in the single digits and teens. Sunday will turn into a nice one, with some early sunshine afternoon clouds, light winds and afternoon temperatures which climb to the freezing mark.
Why not continue to rave about the upcoming few weeks since the eastern ski resorts and Mad River Glen in particular can certainly salivate over what appears to be one of the best weather patterns one can hope for as far as good December skiing is concerned. We have seen plenty of inconsistency in December, a month which can deliver plenty of cold but plenty of rain. Such will not be the case this December. A furious blocking pattern has emerged, sending the North Atlantic Oscillation plummating deep into the negative category. I am trying to remember if I ever remember the index itself at -3 and it may approach that in the next 10 days or so. The oscillation itself is indirectly driven by massive block in the Jet Stream over Greenland that is expected to extend across much of high latitude North America or the Nunavut region of Canada. After a brief reprieve the cold weather early next week, temperatures will plummet on Wednesday and will remain slightly below normal through the Christmas holiday.
As far as specifics on storms or new snow, there is not much on the immediate horizon as far as major snows. Some wet snow is possible Monday (the one time frame where temperatures may warm to above freezing. Additional snows are then possible Tuesday into Wednesday in association with the incoming arctic air. This system has a slight chance exploding off the Atlantic coast and providing more than the 2-5 inches that I might guess would fall at the moment. A clipper system late in the week could then bring another light accumulation of snow before which should be a chilly weekend before Christmas.
Big storms, the ones which are really good for SCWB ratings are unlikely until Christmas week but the pattern is certainly capable of producing such an event between the 20th and 25th of the month. Considering how "blocked" the pattern has become, major weather systems will find some resistance as they proceed up the Atlantic Coast (if one becomes organized enough to do that). It will thus ultimately be a question of whether the pattern allows for a major weather event to track far enough north for major snows. I would guess though that we get at least one major event before the new year. The pattern will turn ripe for it and we should be ready and have our ski's tuned up for the occasion !!
Why not continue to rave about the upcoming few weeks since the eastern ski resorts and Mad River Glen in particular can certainly salivate over what appears to be one of the best weather patterns one can hope for as far as good December skiing is concerned. We have seen plenty of inconsistency in December, a month which can deliver plenty of cold but plenty of rain. Such will not be the case this December. A furious blocking pattern has emerged, sending the North Atlantic Oscillation plummating deep into the negative category. I am trying to remember if I ever remember the index itself at -3 and it may approach that in the next 10 days or so. The oscillation itself is indirectly driven by massive block in the Jet Stream over Greenland that is expected to extend across much of high latitude North America or the Nunavut region of Canada. After a brief reprieve the cold weather early next week, temperatures will plummet on Wednesday and will remain slightly below normal through the Christmas holiday.
As far as specifics on storms or new snow, there is not much on the immediate horizon as far as major snows. Some wet snow is possible Monday (the one time frame where temperatures may warm to above freezing. Additional snows are then possible Tuesday into Wednesday in association with the incoming arctic air. This system has a slight chance exploding off the Atlantic coast and providing more than the 2-5 inches that I might guess would fall at the moment. A clipper system late in the week could then bring another light accumulation of snow before which should be a chilly weekend before Christmas.
Big storms, the ones which are really good for SCWB ratings are unlikely until Christmas week but the pattern is certainly capable of producing such an event between the 20th and 25th of the month. Considering how "blocked" the pattern has become, major weather systems will find some resistance as they proceed up the Atlantic Coast (if one becomes organized enough to do that). It will thus ultimately be a question of whether the pattern allows for a major weather event to track far enough north for major snows. I would guess though that we get at least one major event before the new year. The pattern will turn ripe for it and we should be ready and have our ski's tuned up for the occasion !!
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
6-8 inches of snow/sleet/ice followed by some early winter chill
And for those who are lucky enough to have a day off Wednesday, there will be some morning powder across the northern half of Vermont as it appears snow will fall in earnest through early afternoon. Temperatures and more importantly, wet bulb temperatures (the lowest temperature that can be reached through the evaporation of water)are such that Wednesday's event will indeed consist of several hours of powder before precipitation goes to sleet and a very brief period of freezing rain later this evening. The storm is far from epic but will, as promised, prove to be a good primer for a base which should steadily build over the next several weeks.
Snow of the terrain induced variety will return by Thursday morning and continue in at varying but mostly light intensities through a good part of the day Friday. The unstable layer providing support for the snow Thursday and Friday is relatively shallow as it often is when arctic air invades the state. Nonetheless, we should see additional accumulations of 4-8 inches before it dries out over the weekend.
There is no need for any lenghthy addendum's on what still is a very optimistic outlook through the middle of the month and perhaps now through the holidays. The pattern will be driven and driven quite hard by a ferociously negative NAO and AO over the next several weeks. This will keep temperatures on the cold side and most impotantly will keep the rain out. The American GFS model showed the second coming of March 13th, 1993 on one of its runs yesterday but it lacks support from other model data including subsequent runs of the GFS. There is a potential for snow in the early to middle part of next week. This is an east coast system that will try and intensify at the last second or pass us by in benign fashion. Next week will then finsh similarly to this week with some terrain induced powder and cold temperatures. More on the long range this Friday.
Snow of the terrain induced variety will return by Thursday morning and continue in at varying but mostly light intensities through a good part of the day Friday. The unstable layer providing support for the snow Thursday and Friday is relatively shallow as it often is when arctic air invades the state. Nonetheless, we should see additional accumulations of 4-8 inches before it dries out over the weekend.
There is no need for any lenghthy addendum's on what still is a very optimistic outlook through the middle of the month and perhaps now through the holidays. The pattern will be driven and driven quite hard by a ferociously negative NAO and AO over the next several weeks. This will keep temperatures on the cold side and most impotantly will keep the rain out. The American GFS model showed the second coming of March 13th, 1993 on one of its runs yesterday but it lacks support from other model data including subsequent runs of the GFS. There is a potential for snow in the early to middle part of next week. This is an east coast system that will try and intensify at the last second or pass us by in benign fashion. Next week will then finsh similarly to this week with some terrain induced powder and cold temperatures. More on the long range this Friday.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Hopes for epic powder on Wednesday fade but favorable pattern remains
And although it would seem as if we have made it through a long stretch of unseasonably mild weather we have yet in fact to reach categorical below normal temperatures and may not really do so until later this week. It is however cold enough so that the little that did fall Saturday will remain in place as the next very closely watched system approaches late Tuesday. This system has potential but its track has become problematic and each run of the very trusted European model seems to confirm that our prospects for big powder from this storm are fading. This system can still do a lot of good as far as priming the base for future events.
The system in question is poised to clobber the interior west from the Sierra Nevada mountains to the continental divide in Colorado. It will then tap into moisture from the Gulf and move northeastward. It should prove to be quite an event for portions of the Upper Midwest but its track as it continues to push toward New England will allow warm air to invade critical layers of the atmosphere. This movie has been played out before many times and often warmth from the Atlantic can get pinched off as energy gets transferred to the coast. I expect this to happen to a degree but the event will nonetheless consist of snow to start followed by a change to sleet before ending as a few days of terrain induced powder late this week. I think the uncertainty at this point revolves around precipitation type and the particulars regarding how much snow verses sleet verses freezing rain verses dare I say rain. Sleet would be the ideal primer and we should receive a healthy dose of that Wednesday but hopefully we can keep the freezing rain and rain out. The European model would suggest that this could be a challenge while the American model says sleet will likely be the primary precipitation type Wednesday. I would say around 5 inches of snow and sleet is a good initial guess on this event. Remember however that sleet is exponentially more dense than snow and that a few inches of sleet has tremendous staying power were it to fall. With powder seemingly becoming more far fetched I am pulling for a "sleety" outcome as it will be this which will get MRG open the quickest in my opinion.
Much colder temperatures will advance into Vermont Thursday in the wake of this storm and preliminary indications suggest two days of a cold and not entirely dry westerly fetch of air. Such a setup should provide a shallow layer of instability and terrain induced snow leading up to the weekend. More details on that later in the week.
I am becoming more impressed with the "sustaining" power of our new high latitude blocking pattern. It may have started with the "Omega Block" across Alaska but will evolve over time into a combined negative AO-NAO fueled jet stream configuration. This should be one where the jet stream is forced southward and where rain events and even thaws will be tough to come by. I am going out on a limb here and will suggest that all precipitation after Wednesday's event and up into the time of Christmas will be snow. Hopefully we won't let the opportunity to build an early season base pass us by. My guess is that we will not and should go into late December with my kind of holiday cheer !!!
The system in question is poised to clobber the interior west from the Sierra Nevada mountains to the continental divide in Colorado. It will then tap into moisture from the Gulf and move northeastward. It should prove to be quite an event for portions of the Upper Midwest but its track as it continues to push toward New England will allow warm air to invade critical layers of the atmosphere. This movie has been played out before many times and often warmth from the Atlantic can get pinched off as energy gets transferred to the coast. I expect this to happen to a degree but the event will nonetheless consist of snow to start followed by a change to sleet before ending as a few days of terrain induced powder late this week. I think the uncertainty at this point revolves around precipitation type and the particulars regarding how much snow verses sleet verses freezing rain verses dare I say rain. Sleet would be the ideal primer and we should receive a healthy dose of that Wednesday but hopefully we can keep the freezing rain and rain out. The European model would suggest that this could be a challenge while the American model says sleet will likely be the primary precipitation type Wednesday. I would say around 5 inches of snow and sleet is a good initial guess on this event. Remember however that sleet is exponentially more dense than snow and that a few inches of sleet has tremendous staying power were it to fall. With powder seemingly becoming more far fetched I am pulling for a "sleety" outcome as it will be this which will get MRG open the quickest in my opinion.
Much colder temperatures will advance into Vermont Thursday in the wake of this storm and preliminary indications suggest two days of a cold and not entirely dry westerly fetch of air. Such a setup should provide a shallow layer of instability and terrain induced snow leading up to the weekend. More details on that later in the week.
I am becoming more impressed with the "sustaining" power of our new high latitude blocking pattern. It may have started with the "Omega Block" across Alaska but will evolve over time into a combined negative AO-NAO fueled jet stream configuration. This should be one where the jet stream is forced southward and where rain events and even thaws will be tough to come by. I am going out on a limb here and will suggest that all precipitation after Wednesday's event and up into the time of Christmas will be snow. Hopefully we won't let the opportunity to build an early season base pass us by. My guess is that we will not and should go into late December with my kind of holiday cheer !!!
Friday, December 4, 2009
Storm talk speculation ? Let the games begin !!!
The cold air has made its long awaited arrival and the snow is on its way, proving once again that El Nino's can "put out" and often do so in quantities. The southern branch can also never be underestimated and its up to old tricks this weekend, energizing another system in the gulf states and sending it northeastward. I didn't give this system much of a chance to be quite honest and quite recently sent an email to a loyal SCWB follower to essentially squash his hope. This is a system that will in the end track a bit too far east for a big hit but I do expect the precipitation shield to reach much of Vermont and deposit a few inches of snow to the Green Mountain chain late Saturday before it makes its way into the Canadian Maritimes. Big snows can be expected across the Monadnock region of New Hampshire, which is a region of New England that is often overlooked as far as exciting weather goes. Its close enough to the coast to get the effects of some intense noreasters yet high enough in altitude so that many would-be rain events turn into big snows. This is one of those situations where the Monadnock region can see a foot or more of snow while locations along the coast get rain and the likes of Jay Peak struggle to see an inch.
The global long pattern has indeed become "blocked-up" as expected and the results came very quickly with snow falling at some unusual latitudes such as Texas. The blocking catylist however is situated across Alaska which can create some competing negative impacts on our weather pattern going forward. The most important of these potentially "adverse" impacts is the energy that is expected to dive under the block and into the open waters of the Pacific. It will surely help to create an onslaught of storminess on the west coast (California as opposed to British Columbia) and I would expect some unbelievable snowfall totals from Tahoe and other portions of the interior west over the course of the next two weeks. Farther east however the effects of the energy in the Pacific can be a force for the creation of a mid-continent or southeast ridge. This ridge will be or won't be an issue next week as a major system sweeps across the country. It is expected to evolve into a major winter storm for the upper Midwest and perhaps even a blizzard and then continue toward the northeast United States. The track of this system during the middle of next week is, as you probably guessed, the 64 thousand dollar question.
The playing field next week appears similar in some respects to late December 2002 when a system of similar potential crossed the country and questions regarding the strength of a southeast ridge loomed large. In the end, the El Nino, of a similar strength to this year beat the southeast ridge to a pulp and the storm pulverized interior New England and brought some of the best X-Mas skiing to Vermont ever. I have faith that this El Nino can perform up to 2002's standards especially when combined with a very negative NAO. I therefore am cautiously expecting a big event beginning early Wednesday and persisting into Thursday. I am currently watching the latest and just released information from the European model which suggests a snow to sleet then back to snow type of progression. Such a result would be a great base-building" type of event and if the storm tracks 200 miles further south the results could be more incredible with snow in feet and some epic early season powder.
Beyond the storm late next week, appears to be a pattern marked by a very negative AO and NAO. The pipeline of viciously cold arctic air appears a bit closed off so I would expect temperatures that are more or less seasonable but with a minimal threat for rain and a very little in the way of above freezing temperatures. We should therefore be able to gradually add to whatever base gets laid down next week and should be in good shape as we approach the winter solstice. Information from the American model suggested a big storm around the middle of the month this morning but the ensembles are indicating a pattern which might be free of storminess during this middle of the month period. Its tough to predict such weather during an El Nino but it is at least a possibility. At the very least, I am happy to report generally favorable weather beyond the middle of the month thanks mostly to the favorable teleconnections indices of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscilation.
I just bought a cheap DVD, the Grateful Dead's "Dead Ahead" for $9.99 which is a recording of a performance of a 1980 show at Radio City music hall. What a band they were and what great value that DVD is if you can find it at that price. Wow, great to watch and do a blog entry !!!
The global long pattern has indeed become "blocked-up" as expected and the results came very quickly with snow falling at some unusual latitudes such as Texas. The blocking catylist however is situated across Alaska which can create some competing negative impacts on our weather pattern going forward. The most important of these potentially "adverse" impacts is the energy that is expected to dive under the block and into the open waters of the Pacific. It will surely help to create an onslaught of storminess on the west coast (California as opposed to British Columbia) and I would expect some unbelievable snowfall totals from Tahoe and other portions of the interior west over the course of the next two weeks. Farther east however the effects of the energy in the Pacific can be a force for the creation of a mid-continent or southeast ridge. This ridge will be or won't be an issue next week as a major system sweeps across the country. It is expected to evolve into a major winter storm for the upper Midwest and perhaps even a blizzard and then continue toward the northeast United States. The track of this system during the middle of next week is, as you probably guessed, the 64 thousand dollar question.
The playing field next week appears similar in some respects to late December 2002 when a system of similar potential crossed the country and questions regarding the strength of a southeast ridge loomed large. In the end, the El Nino, of a similar strength to this year beat the southeast ridge to a pulp and the storm pulverized interior New England and brought some of the best X-Mas skiing to Vermont ever. I have faith that this El Nino can perform up to 2002's standards especially when combined with a very negative NAO. I therefore am cautiously expecting a big event beginning early Wednesday and persisting into Thursday. I am currently watching the latest and just released information from the European model which suggests a snow to sleet then back to snow type of progression. Such a result would be a great base-building" type of event and if the storm tracks 200 miles further south the results could be more incredible with snow in feet and some epic early season powder.
Beyond the storm late next week, appears to be a pattern marked by a very negative AO and NAO. The pipeline of viciously cold arctic air appears a bit closed off so I would expect temperatures that are more or less seasonable but with a minimal threat for rain and a very little in the way of above freezing temperatures. We should therefore be able to gradually add to whatever base gets laid down next week and should be in good shape as we approach the winter solstice. Information from the American model suggested a big storm around the middle of the month this morning but the ensembles are indicating a pattern which might be free of storminess during this middle of the month period. Its tough to predict such weather during an El Nino but it is at least a possibility. At the very least, I am happy to report generally favorable weather beyond the middle of the month thanks mostly to the favorable teleconnections indices of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscilation.
I just bought a cheap DVD, the Grateful Dead's "Dead Ahead" for $9.99 which is a recording of a performance of a 1980 show at Radio City music hall. What a band they were and what great value that DVD is if you can find it at that price. Wow, great to watch and do a blog entry !!!
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