Sunday and Monday look epic at MRG as snow totals by early next week could approach 3 feet

Thanks now to the most recent run of the European model which is back on board with the more aggressive retrogression late on Saturday and early on Sunday. This was the critical piece of information that was missing and I can now be more affirmative with a 2-3 foot storm total forecast. The forecast covers a large expanse of time starting New Years Day and ending Tuesday of next week. Yes, Tuesday which means snow from this storm could be falling for 5 successive days.

I was a little scarce on details in my last update and since I am a little more certain of details I figured it would be time to disclose them before i celebrate the incoming decade. Snow on New Years day should be on the light side and should fall as a result of the decaying clipper energy. As the coastal low bombs east of Cape Cod we should see some enhancement in the precipitation shield Friday night into early Saturday but the storm will be well to our east and snowfall rates should as a result be gentle. Saturday's first tracks should see a few inches of new snow but my guess is less than 6 but the snow will continue to fall and as Saturday progresses, the storm will make this long talked about westward wobble or "retrogression". Such a motion to a storm defies the basic laws of mid-latitude "gravity" and it takes a powerful surge of upper air support to accomplish such. And yet, we expect it and as this happens late on Saturday the snow will intensify and become modest by Saturday night into early Sunday. NWS forecasts for the area would seem to downplay the event. I am not calling them out or calling them wrong but since the storm will ultimately occlude it will be sensitive to terrain and snowfall totals in the valley areas should be substantially less than the high country. At MRG, we could see an additional foot by "first tracks" time and another 6-12 by Monday followed by additional snows Tuesday. Epic indeed !!

Happy New Year to the MRG community. Happy New Decade. Think, think think snow. What a great way to finish one decade and start a new one !!

Expected storm track shifts east but....

not that far east. Far enough perhaps so that a repeat performance of 1969 or 2001 will be a bit tough. Far enough so that the threat of sleet has all but vanished if there was any to begin with. Close enough still so that much of northern New England, especially those sitting in areas with the "oragraphic advantage" should do very well over a span of several days.

The weather map on early New Years day (Friday) should consist of a gradually weakening clipper system over the eastern Great Lakes and a strengthening storm in the Virginia tidewater. Snow from the clipper should begin falling early New Years day. Accumulations will be on the light side because the snowfall intensity will be on the light side but it may be enough to fluff up the trails a bit. As we go through time, the coastal system will bomb and swallow all the remaining energy from the clipper. Models are still at odds regarding exactly where this coastal storm tracks and our forecast still remains uncertain as a result. The last three runs of the European ECMWF have taken our coastal system farther east and are not as dramatic with this westward retrogression on Saturday and Sunday. Such a solution would still mean snow for both Saturday and Sunday (Jan 2 and Jan 3) but accumulations would be on the lighter side and snowfall totals for the weekend will be in the 8-14 inch range by Monday morning. Snowfall rates would also stay on the lighter side in such a scenario and waist deep powder at first tracks time between Saturday to Monday would be a stretch. The American GFS model continues to show a very dramatic amplification with this system. The deepening is shown to be so fierce that the westward "retrogression" mentioned above would be the result. This scenario would put us directly in the thrust of the moist conveyor of this powerful storm and would do so for multiple days. Accumulations would be on the order of 30 inches by late Monday with epic powder Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Having faced this fork in the road many times in the short history of the SCWB I have typically found faith in the European model since it has proven to catch a trend or shift prior to the American Model. This instance would be no different except that in doing so I would be disrespecting the potency of systems coming out of the southern branch and up the east coast. Most of these systems this year have been stronger and tracked farther northwest relative to the consensus of models. I will therefore cautiously predict 1-2 feet over a 4 days period and at the same time purchase the "huge margin of error" insurance policy.

There is always concern with any system with strong winds closing lifts. This has typically been a bit out of the SWCB domain since I would hate to wrongly steer people away or toward MRG as a result of a wind forecast. Wind and wind holds are always a risk and winds will be gusty through the weekend since this is an intense storm with a tight pressure gradient. I will say that in my 10 years skiing regularly at MRG, the wind holds on the single have resulted from strong easterly winds at the summit. Winds will be strong throughout the weekend but they will not be blowing from the east and will instead be much closer to north. Does this save the MRG single from wind holds ? No guarantees, but for those that requested the information, there you have it.

Garden variety cold will grip the Green Mountain chain through next week but when the dust, fluff and powder finally settle from the New Years storm the storm track will be suppressed well to our south and our snow will be the result of clipper systems and terrain enhancement. Blocking remains in the jet stream but there should be a gradual shift from a cold pattern energized by the NAO to a cold pattern supported by a positive PNA. This in the need could send bitter chill into New England sometime after January 8th.

I will try and provide updates as often as a I can but tomorrow is a holiday and my presence is needed at work so an update might not come until late New Years day or early New Years day.

New Years storm 2010 is a few days closer and more certain !!

And conditions should have already recovered somewhat thanks to what should be several inches of terrain enhanced snow on Monday and Monday night. The snow will be "enhanced" by both terrain and an arctic boundary which is expected to arrive on Monday night. A short burst of heavy snow is possible with the passage of the boundary and should help to produced a 6-12 snow total by first tracks time Tuesday. Tuesday will be cold and blustery but not unbearable. Temperatures will be in the single numbers and wind chills will be below zero but I have skied at MRG in worse, much worse in fact. Visibility should improve by Wednesday and a very cold, sub zero start will give way to comfortable temperatures in the afternoon. And thus the stage will be set for perhaps the best start to a year any of us MRGers could possibly imagine.


This storm, if it comes together will be nearly a perfect nexus of southern branch moisture and a vigorous surge of upper level energy from the northern or arctic branch of the jet. The result will be a massive eastern U.S. trough with cold air stretching to the Gulf Coast and beyond next week. It is possible in fact that snow is falling on the Florida panhandle at some point next week as well as some other semi tropical locations. The storm will look a bit innocuous as it brings its disorganized area of rain into Virginia on New Years Eve. Arctic jet energy will then arrive and bring its rocket fuel into the mix. The storm will intensify very quickly as a result and the intensity of precipitation will enhance as the storm rather slowly makes its way up the coast and positions itself in the Gulf of Maine late on New Years Day.

If everything goes as advertised, snow at MRG will begin during the day on New Years day and turn heavy during the evening. What makes this situation potentially special is the ability of our eastern trough to continue digging long after snow commences. This will allow the storm to pivot and attain whats referred to as a "negative tilt" greatly elongating the period in which it snows on the mountain. There are in fact indications that the strong surface storm will retrograde from the New England coast inland as it occludes. It could result in several days of snow and epic powder and a nice payback for another rainy Christmas. Its probably a little early to get too buried in accumulation predictions but the reader should get the idea. 2010 is expected to start snowy and there are no indications of warmth or rain through the first week of the month. Enjoy it for there will surely be some adverse times this year but the next 10 days should be spectacular.

March 2001, Valentines Day 2007 and New Years 2010 ?

And what might might all those dates have in common. For the purposes of pleasing the karma gods I will leave the answer blank. Plenty of uncertainty remains and plenty of time for the potential to unravel but the potential exists and for something big to occur it needs to start with "potential".

Rain and ice has indeed made it to northern and central Vermont and has thus humbled this prognosticator who a not more than two weeks ago declared that such a thing would not happen for the duration of 2009. This storm has obliterated portions of the northern plains with snow and wind but is hardly impressing any of us skiing enthusiasts since it lacks both moisture and cold air and we will gladly tell it to not let the door hit it on the way out. Its "out" will allow a pool of deep instability to move over the state of Vermont and this will allow snow showers to become heavy in the afternoon on Monday. The snow will continue in some earnestness overnight Monday and Tuesday should turn into the best day to ski although a cold and blustery one as arctic air resumes its grip on MRG. Snow accumulations Monday and Monday night will be hard to predict but this is a good set up for terrain enhancement and 6-10 inches of fluff is certainly realistic prior to first tracks time Tuesday. For those wondering about Monday, temperatures will be below freezing for much of the day but I don't expect snows to accumulate until the afternoon.

Snow showers will taper to flurries Tuesday but temperatures will struggle past 10 and will fall to below zero levels by Wednesday morning. Both Wednesday and Thursday should be mostly dry with the exception of a few flurries Wednesday. Winds should diminish and the cold will diminish to some extent Thursday as temperatures climb into the 20's. The storm on new years rides on the ability of the juicy southern branch of the jet phasing with the vigorous amplification of an eastern United States trough. This trough will ultimately bring cold air deep into the south as 2010 begins. Models are having a difficult time with the southern branch moisture as usual but both the European model released late on the 26th and the American GFS model released early on the 27th (GMT) show a phasing and a "bombing" south of Long Island. In addition, the deepening trough across the eastern part of the country and blocking downstream across Greenland will allow the storm to move slowly if it can successfully form. The potential thus has me very excited and referencing historic and similar type storms such as February 1969 and March 2001. Are search for the right ingredients is over its just a matter of getting the right proportions and watch things explode. Its not a done deal yet but worthy of our attention.

I should add before signing off that the timing of snow is still up in the air somewhat. Snow should it happen would arrive New Years day and potentially continue for a few days or not happen at all. Lets wait a day or two and re-assess.

2009 may end with a bang !!

Dry air stemming from high pressure center over Quebec will help improve visibility through Christmas. We won't see much in the way of snow through Christmas day but light winds and seasonable temperatures should provide the opportunity to loosen up the legs on the groomers. We have been watching our post-Christmas storm for more than a week and in the end it will be a disappointment. Precipitation will arrive in the form of snow late on Saturday and is likely to turn to a mix of sleet and freezing rain for a time on Sunday. The problematic layer of warmth is only indicated to be about 1-2 degrees C so the possibility of turning this to a snowier forecast remains but chances are starting to dwindle. Temperatures at the surface will struggle to get above freezing and if they do, it will hardly dent the base. This storm in the end will be a much greater concern for the Upper Midwest and its impact on the east will be forgotten about in short order.

I am much more excited looking at the possibilities for Monday. The storm as discussed will occlude across the Midwest and will ultimately bring a deep pocket of instability across New England Monday. The unstable layer could for a time be greater than 10,000 feet which would be more impressive than at any point last year. With the winds at varying levels of the lower troposphere aligning, the prospects for terrain enhanced powder look very good Monday. So good in fact that I can confidently say much of the Green Mountain chain could get a 6 inch or more shot of powder during the day Monday. Arctic cold arrives Tuesday and although snow showers should continue the chances for an accumulation drop off. The drop in temperatures will also not go unnoticed. Temperatures should hover in the low 20's with snow falling at oscillating intensities Monday. Readings will fall to the single numbers however for Tuesday and Wednesday and wind chills will be well below zero for Tuesday.

Our southern branch might be cooking up more of the good stuff around New Years day. In the coming days, I think some of the medium range models will come up with some sort of consensus that includes an east coast storm and perhaps a big one around New Years Day. There is so much jet energy along the Gulf Coast that it is proving very difficult for the models to make sense of what to do with it all. We have already seen a few occasions where model data is simply underdone on the potency of this jet energy along the Gulf Coast. You can't call the American GFS model underdone this morning as it "bombed" a storm off the New England coast New Years Day. The European shows a much weaker version. One might normally bet on the more benign of the two advertised scenarios but I would not want to fight the southern branch this year so lets be cautiously optimistic and see if this can sort itself out into a snowy forecast for us as 2009 ends and 2010 begins. Ensembles have also given us the gift of an extension on our blocking pattern which will include favorable NAO and AO teleconnection indices through the first week of January.

Models showing a cooler post Christmas storm, trend needs to continue a bit more and we are gold

Trying to combine a bit of last minute Christmas shopping and Single Chair Weather Blogging which is a bit trying. The news is mixed regarding the storm which is set to bring precipitation in the days following Christmas. Taken literally, the models are still suggesting a period of ice but this period has been minimized and the storm profile in northern and central Vermont looks cooler, enough to support snow for a period late on the 26th. This is a strange system where much of the energy will get rung out across the Midwest. A new storm system will form and strengthen along the Atlantic coast and bring precipitation into a rather stale airmass. Dry air will help keep precipitation in the form of snow for a time but it will also delay precipitation almost a day from what was expected during the last update. The snow could also be wet in nature. Whether or not it goes to a period of ice or rain is still up for debate but if it does happen, against my wishes it will not amount to anything close to the X_Mas thaw last year which was a crusher and closed MRG for weeks.

Conditions should also get a boost from terrain enhanced snow which will arrive on Sunday night into Monday and continue conservatively for 1-2 days. This snow should get an additional boost with the passing of an upper air disturbance in this time frame. I will take a closer look at snowfall potential between the 28th and 30th in an update tomorrow. We may also get a clearer view on what could be a bigger event in the days following new years.

Model data delivering a rather frustrating result for Christmas event

And although I am holding out hope, I have to respect what the consensus of data has shown over the last 48 hours. If true it would be a very humbling turn of events for me since some aggressive proclamations were made. I will stick to these prognostications for the time being but at the same time I will reveal the details of the less than ideal model simulations.

While many along the eastern seaboard are no doubt digging out from one of the more historic December noreasters that I can remember, MRG will continue to remain dry through part of Tuesday with temperatures in the teens during the day and near zero at night. A weak disturbance will rotate into the departing east coast trough Tuesday and will enhance snow shower activity for a time and may help in bringing a fresh inch or two to the mountain. After that, we wait for the storm which departs the Rockies Wednesday with vigor and tracks toward the northeast.

Although we continue to see plenty of blocking in the jet stream which will persist through the end of the month we will temporarily lose our supply of fresh cold air this week. The below normal temps early this week will gradually modify as the airmass becomes stale by Christmas Eve. At the same time, models are suggesting that our Christmas storm takes a left turn in the southern Plains and heads for the St Lawrence Valley. It is honestly hard to believe such a track given the state of the AO and NAO but models have been spitting out such a solution for consecutive days. The adverse track of the storm will be mitigated to a degree as the storm transfers its energy to the Atlantic Coast, but if the models are taken at face value, snow will arrive on Christmas day and turn to ice before ending as a period of terrain enhanced snow over the weekend. I am not throwing in the towel on this event in spite of all these details. Below normal temperatures have helped to chill the Great Lakes and much of the east is under a healthy blanket of snow. These are subtle variables but over time can act to keep the track of this storm farther south. Blocking in the jet stream can also encourage such a storm to make a quicker transfer to the Atlantic Coast thus thwarting any warm-up. I am no doubt concerned about what the models are saying but this game is hardly over, lets see how things transpire in the coming days before officially throwing in the towel.

Ensembles continue to show a "blocked" pattern through the end of the year with weakened but still favorable teleconnection indices. Model runs over the last 24 hours have been on the drier side with snow falling mainly from clippers and terrain enhancement. There remains evidence however of an active southern branch of the jet stream so one has to be somewhat cynical of a dry forecast.