New snow is on the way, just a question of when and how much

Temperatures fell quickly Thursday back to sub-freezing levels after an incredibly damaging thaw featuring an "all of the above" plethora of snow eating variables including warmth, high dewpoints, wind and rain. We will need a lot of help to recover but help is coming in immediate fashion. Low level instability combined with Great Lakes moisture will work to induce the terrain enhanced snow showers that we are typically so dependent on. The period between between Thursday evening and midday Friday should feature on and off snow showers and squalls, enough to produce 3-5 inches of powder before it dries out Friday afternoon. This is much needed first aid but the mountain will obviously need a bit more before returning to top form.

There is plenty weather worthy of discussion over the next week or so and I am happy to report that none of this talk will concern rain. Temperatures will be on the colder side of average with most of these days below 20 on the mountain and a few nights below zero. A series of clipper disturbances rotating through the polar jet will impact New England and there are important questions relating to where and how much it will snow. The first will dive into the Midwest Saturday as a disjointed and disorganized system. There essentially is two weak upper air impulses with the second catching the first on Sunday, giving it a much needed boost as it interacts with the Atlantic Coast. The result could be either good or bad. If the system can strengthen quickly and efficiently it could effectively suck moisture back over interior New England. If the system is slow to strengthen as it encounters the coastline, it could act to simply consolidate its energy off shore as a couple of recent clippers have done this month. I am worried about the latter and some of the recent computer guidance is indicating such an outcome but even in this case, limited amounts of moisture should be enough to produce a light 1-3 inch snowfall Sunday, hopefully its more. One or perhaps even two additional clipper systems will track across the Midwest early next week. Models have shifted the track of this system or systems southward in the last 24 hours. That being said, the situation has been very fluid and small changes in timing or interactions make the outcomes look different every time new model data is released. 24-hours ago, there were stronger indications that one of these systems would blow up off the coast and become a significant snow producer and I would not declare that possibility dead yet.

The cold weather will persist in to the later stages of next week and then the arctic air will begin a retreat into central and northern Canada. Milder Pacific air will thus be allowed to dominate much of the country by the 10th or so of the month. In spite of all this, and the inevitable mention of the "evil empire", there is a silver lining in the forecast. The cold will not give ground quickly and a more significant weather system will likely move out of the Rocky Mountains late next week and is likely going to be one of the first more organized snow producers to have a more direct impact on the region in too long. So even as the more intense cold is retreating, the weekend of the 9th and 10th could be one of the better weekends since early January. Thereafter, the evil empire will become a more dominant player but maybe not too dominant. Ensembles indicate a strengthening of a ridge in the Pacific coupled with a trough over Alaska. This combination floods the country with Pacific air as mentioned and temperatures on the mountain will certainly warm by the 11th of the month. It is possible however that the evil empire has a short reign of terror this go round as the signal is expected to quickly weaken within a few days. It has been a noticeable characteristic of the winter season 2012-13. Warm or cold patterns have generally failed to gain a lasting foothold on the region and we have watched weather conditions swing violently in both directions since early December.

Damaging thaw will be followed by much colder weather and snow

Wednesday's thaw is a nasty one. Dewpoints in the 40's, strong south winds and not to be forgotten, the rain. It will be a heavy soaking rain as well which should begin Wednesday evening and persist through a good chunk of the overnight. Rainfall could total over an inch and rumbles of thunder might be heard throughout the Green Mountains. Thaws are a fact of life in any New England winter, even the colder winters, but this surge of warmth will be particularly crippling to ski areas across the region because of the intensity. The rain will be over and done with Thursday evening and colder temperatures will quickly displace the warmth and bring temperatures back to below freezing levels Thursday night. 

Our snowpack will be on life support by Thursday and our need for fresh snow will be as great as ever. Fortunately there are a few chances during the first 7 days of February. A weak disturbance should allow for some terrain induced snow Friday but two potent Canadian clippers have the potential to be snow producers, both getting a late injection of Atlantic moisture. The first brings its chance for snow Sunday. It will appear like a disorganized system as it travels through the Midwest but then organize along the Atlantic Coast and potentially spread moisture back into interior sections of New England in the form of snow. The second is a more potent weather system and even more capable of bringing significant snow to New England on Monday ot Tuesday. The question relates to where and that will depend on the eventual tracks of both systems. The roller coaster temperature ride will also continue I almost forgot to mention. Temperatures will again drop well below normal by Friday and generally remain there through a good part of next week. This means plenty of days with temps in the teens by day and well below zero at night.

The longer range outlook has taken an unfortunate turn for the worse and it fits the back and forth personality of the winter. It's the evil empire yet again. All three major ensemble packages show its return. The more energetic Pacific Jet Stream  will force more Pacific air into the U.S. after February 7th allowing for temperatures to moderate. In spite of all this, there are indications of a big winter weather producer for the 2nd weekend of February.

$3.50 to ski in 4-8 inches. Get it while it lasts !!

A decent snow is on the top of our wish list and believe it or not it's coming. I am honestly surprised that the National Weather Service seems to content with no watches or advisories and is suggesting 1-3 inches Monday night. The swath of moisture associated with the initial push of milder temperatures is quite impressive and although it will encounter some very dry air as it moves east, it will nonetheless maintain good frontogenetic support. Snow should begin in the evening Monday and occasionally fall at a moderate or evening heavy clip during the late evening and overnight hours. Temperatures will rise into the low 20's Monday and remain there through Monday night which will seem almost tropical around here compared to the last 5 days but still cold enough to support powder. By Tuesday morning we should have a good 4-8 inches of powder and about a day to enjoy it before it turns very warm and very wet at MRG. 1949 prices seems like a pretty good bargain for what should be a cloudy and calm day with temperatures just below freezing. Some freezing drizzle Tuesday is about the only daytime precipitation we should see.

The thaw Wednesdsay is the classic New England skiers nightmare. It comes fast and furious with wind and high dewpoints, two very destructive components. We could see the occasional freezing drizzle Tuesday turn to a steadier freezing rain Tuesday night. By late on Wedneday temperatures will surge into the 50's at the base, aided by some sunshine and the aforementioned winds. The rain will arrive Wednesday evening and could also become heavy during the night. In summary, the thaw will again be quite destructive and put our limited base on the defensive while destroying the snowpack in valley locations.

The intensity of the upcoming thaw certainly has taken me by surprise but the weather has been very changeable this season and has included some violent temperature fluctuations. We will see this continue late this week with plummeting temperatures again thanks to another arctic surge of air. Lingering instability in the wake of the passage of the cold front will allow for snow showers late this week but accumulations will be minimal. The next chance for significant snow comes over the weekend from what looks to be a fairly potent clipper system. This system has some potential to produce a light to moderate snowfall but remains 5-6 days away so we should expect some forecast adjustments.

We successfully align the 3 major teleconnection indices for a period of about 5 days beginning on the last day of January and ending February 5. In this period temperatures will remain cold and snowfall will come mainly from clippers or weaker disturbances. Beyond February 5th there are now clearer indications both good and bad. The good involves the activity in the pattern with at least one major weather system indicated in the first full week of February. The bad involves the ridge/trough axis which is indicated to shift west and this put interior New England in a clash zone between mild and very cold air. This can lead to a very good result but we would prefer to see no risk of any more mild intrusions for a while.

Swing and a miss this weekend, some snow next week but a brief thaw in the middle

This will be another abbreviated update since a tablespoon of coffee just put my labtop on injured reserve for a time. Mentally I am also on injured reserve since our late week storm is wide right. It might still be the 9th inning but there are two outs and two strikes and it looks for all the world that this storm will get shunted out to sea as it consolidates its energy off the coast. Some snow starved areas in the Mid-Atlantic should get a long awaited taste of snow but they don't appreciate the powder like we do and I mean no offense toward them. In the meantime, the extreme cold gripping the Mad River Valley will gravitate back toward more garden variety cold by the end of the weekend. We could get a brief period of light snow Friday night but for the most part, the upcoming three days should feature lots of sunshine.  Saturday will be a bit on the breezy side but both Friday and Sunday can be characterized as calm and cold.

Our next shot of snow comes as a result of a mild push of air. It will take some work to get the mild air into interior New England and although that battle will be lost for a day next week we should see some snow Monday night into Tuesday thanks to this warm front. The mild day, and it looks likes we see one, occurs Wednesday. I am hoping that blocking at the extreme high latitudes finds away out of this but in any case, the mild surge will be a brief one resulting in a day of above freezing temps. Rain and damaging wind is also possible but hopefully any of that will be very brief.

In spite of our miss on the storm and a potential brief thaw next week, you have to like the fundamentals anchoring this pattern going forward. The evil empire will go into hibernation for a time (although it rears its head briefly next week) and lets not wake this sleeping troll. Furthermore, we should see continued support from all of the teleconnection indices especially during the first 7-10 days of February. The missing ingredient is the big storm and we need to jump start the southern branch of the jet stream to help improve our chances. Although there remains hints of split flow and some activity in the pattern there remain only vague signals. I would venture to guess that weaker disturbances will deposit some fresh snow prior to the first full weekend of February with a slight chance of a bigger storm around the time of this weekend. Stay warm this weekend and don't spill any coffee on any laptops if your not on the slopes.

Friday/Saturday storm still possible but latest info takes it mostly out into the ocean

The Friday/Saturday weather system still has promise. It has all the ingredients to become a major snow producer for New England but the components of this mixture may not be in the right place at the right time. In a nutshell, there is a critical shortwave in the polar branch of jet stream that will need to dig a little deeper Friday and help ignite this storm before it slumps into the Atlantic Ocean. There is no reason to think this isn't possible but recent model guidance says that this much needed storm is a no go with snow confined to southeast New England. We have seen this movie before, we have seen 11th hour, 9th inning twists of fate and we may need one here. I'll have a fuller update by Thursday morning but in the near term, we need to root this storm along.

Very cold upcoming week will hopefully conclude with some significant snow

Temperatures are falling across Vermont and in the coming days, the mountain, the state and the entire region will be in the deep freeze. It is as impressive of an outbreak of cold as the region has seen in the last half a decade, perhaps even dating back to 2004 which was the last January outbreak of cold that challenged records across New England. The stronger outbreaks of cold in New England and particularly in Vermont occur when cold is delivered straight out of Canada as opposed to the Great Lakes region directly to the west. This initial blast of chill Sunday night into Monday has been modified somewhat by the open waters of the Great Lakes. A clipper system, the last of a 3-part series will ultimately bring unmodified arctic air of a very intense variety. We are of course most interested in the clipper for its snow. It will have a very limited amount of moisture as it tracks through the Great Lakes on MLK day but it will get juiced a bit by the warmer Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation will be in the form of snow obviously but most of it will be across coastal New England while a very fluffy 1-3 inches falls across the high terrain of central and northern Vermont. The snow from this system will fall Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the 0-10 degree range through Tuesday but will plummet further Tuesday night, perhaps all the way to -20 by Wednesday morning. It may then be all the way until Thursday afternoon before temperatures get above zero again.

The elephant in the room, as it is most of the time, involves snow. The sooner we get a big snow the sooner the Single Chair begins spinning and the main mountain opens. As of January 20th, new snow has been quite sparse this month and the need is great in the wake of last weekends thaw. Our big chance, what I hope will be the first of many, comes Friday. This is a system that will come out of the Rockies early Thursday and proceed quickly through the Great Lakes. It will move quickly and will thus have a limited time to gather both moisture and any serious strength along the Atlantic coast. Nonetheless, the system has the ingredients to produce snow, mainly as a result of what should be a broad overrunning surface. Everything with this system will hinge on the track. The polar jet will need to ease its grip just enough to allow this system to track toward Cape Cod. It's not asking a lot and two of the three major computer simulations are currently suggesting a healthy dose of snow on Friday following the two day period of extreme cold. The American GFS model has at times suggested this system remaining to the region's south, keeping the mountain dry and cold.

Still looking at a very fluid situation for the last 6 days of the month. Friday's potential storm is followed by another push of arctic cold, though not quite as strong as what we expect Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Ensembles are keying in on a warm-up and a potential brief thaw around the 29th or 30th of the month only to be quickly followed by another period of colder weather by the beginning of February. Through all this, we should continue to see at least some support from NAO and AO and we have to hope that the blocking can help mitigate the effects of any mild push of air. It is not an unreasonable expectation. Milder pushes can appear dangerous but can also prove to be a mechanism for new snow.

Light amounts of new snow through the weekend and a more oganized snow produder possible late next week

At least a few inches of snow is covering the thick layer of crust across the Green Mountains. It will take several days, but we should be able to add a few more inches and set ourselves up for another extended period of good skiing, I hope. In the short term, we will have to settle for the proverbial "bunt single" or two. The arctic air has arrived and disturbances rotating through the polar jet will bring the limited snow through the weekend. The snow should begin again Friday night, taper to flurries Saturday and evolve into snow showers or even a brief burst of heavier snow Sunday as another and stronger shot of arctic chill advances on the region. I can't guess if its enough to get the main mountain back in business but the few inches Friday night and few inches Saturday should total 4-8 inches over that 3-day period. The third clipper feature discussed in the last update does not appear as promising according to the last 3 or so cycle of model runs but it still has the potential to quickly strengthen off the Atlantic coast. Because of its quick movement however, the chances of it having any meaningful impact on Vermont have decreased considerably.

Most of the snow shower activity after Monday will be focused on areas farther south and although some Lake Champlain induced flurries remains possible in the Monday-Thursday period, the main story will be extreme cold. Temperatures throughout this period will struggle to get past 10 across the mountains and fall well below zero at night. This particular outbreak of cold should best anything we saw last year in both intensity and duration. Previous runs of the American Model and a few runs of the Canadian model showed a clipper system in the middle of next week capable of producing snow but the main thrust of the Jet Stream will be pretty far south during this time I would venture to guess that any clipper system would prefer a southern route.

We have seen a convergence of indicators in the last 24-36 hours point to a more organized storm system late next week. The storm would move out of the northern Rockies as the polar jet temporarily recedes northward. With arctic air firmly in place, the groundwork has so-to-speak been laid for a healthy overrunning surface, so as the system moves across the country and attempts to push milder air northward, an expanding shield of precipitation should be the result and some of it will be snow across Vermont. Yes, there have hints that the air could get too mild changing precipitation to sleet or freezing rain but I am not concerned about that yet. The NAO/AO tag team should be put to good use here and prevent the storm from tracking too far up the St Lawrence Valley.

The last 5-days of January appear to be a pretty fluid period across New England. A re-enforcing shot of chill follow the weather system late next week, but this will quickly be followed by another potentially stronger push of mild air associated with another weather system. Snow could be the result but there is a risk around the 28th, 29th or 30th of the month of around a 1-day thaw or precipitation other than snow. At least right now, I like what I see going into early February.