Even with near record breaking warmth Thursday, legitimate storm/snowfall potential has emerged for early next week

As far as non-powdery weather goes, it's hard to beat what happened on Sunday when a full dose of late March sunshine boosted temperatures to 60 degrees in valley areas and 50's across the high country.  At the risk of telling folks what is already well known, we can go long stretches during the spring without weather like this and we've gotten a bunch of it this March including Monday (today) Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Winter it seems, has made a decisive retreat with much of this week looking very warm and the first several days of April also looking very warm. The one exception to the warm outlook would be the last three days of March; when, a surge of colder temperatures now has some accompanying big storm potential. More on that in a bit. 

Ahead of any cold weather during the early part of next week comes comes even milder weather at the end of this week. The sunshine and warm afternoons have been magnificent but could also be described as garden variety early spring warmth. Balmier, tropical-like temperatures will build across the southeast early this week and make a very impressive push northward late this week. A warm front marking the advance of this more intense version of warmth will bring clouds to the region late Wednesday and a few hours of much needed rain Wednesday evening.   If the clouds break on Thursday as models now suggest then El Torchy will envelop all of Vermont in record-breaking style with temperatures soaring to near 70 degrees in low lying areas (away from the chilled Lake Champlain),  and well into the 60's even at 2000 feet. El Torchy will also keep temperatures mostly in the 50's Thursday night into early Friday  when at that time a significant weather system from our southwest brings clouds and rainfall to all of northern New England. 

Colder Canadian air will be trying to work its way southward during the weather event on Friday leaving temperatures a bit uncertain during the day. Those colder temperatures, which will arrive early Saturday a the latest are only likely to bring temperatures back to sub-freezing levels above 2500 feet or so with readings hovering closer at 2000 feet or less. Readings will fall back to sub-freezing levels Saturday night as the pattern puts the pieces in place for one more big March amplification late on Sunday and into Monday. 

The situation early next week does not include any widespread surge of arctic cold but rather two benign looking weather disturbances that appear poised for a major league phase along the northeast coast on Monday, March 29th. I was skeptical when seeing hints of this over the weekend but the idea of a big storm now has support from all three major ensemble packages with uncertainly relating more to the track/positioning of the phased and rapidly intensifying storm early Monday. So yes, the situation early next week could all fall apart as many of the big storm setups have for northern Vermont this year but I will venture to say that it will be the track of the storm that would fail us rather than the presence of said storm. If a phased storm bombs either right on top of us or too far to our south (as a few have this year) we would certainly end up on the short end of the snowfall measuring stick. I will also point out that El Torchy will put a massive dent in our snowpack Thursday and will leave conditions pretty thin in many places this weekend. North-facing and shady locations can survive sunshine, calm winds and low dewpoints even when temperatures are warm but the airmass this Thursday will have higher dewpoints and some stronger snow-eating winds.  

More warmth is also showing up in the outlook for early April, powered by the suddenly continued presence of a positive AO. The +AO can have an early April bash as far as I am concerned so long as it retreats by next winter.                                                                                                                                                         

Winter appears ready for a major retreat following one last blustery/chilly Friday

 Less than a tenth of an inch of mixed precipitation fell Thursday morning, adding very little to what has been a very dry month so far and a mostly snowless one as well. Plug the forecast in for the next two weeks and not much will change. Most of next week looks very dry and warm and though the last 5 days of the month (beginning Saturday March 27th) appear cooler and a bit more unsettled, there are no indications of a return to mid-winter conditions or a big storm. 

The big severe weather producing storm that ravaged parts of the south with a tornado outbreak Wednesday night will get suppressed by a quicker moving polar jet disturbance. The two weather features are not in phase and thus another potential big winter storm goes by the wayside. Though this has been anticipated for several days, it is no less frustrating for those hoping for the big March storm we've become accustomed to. Friday could be one of the final mostly sub-freezing days of the season with gusty north winds (15-30 mph) and temperatures remaining in the 20's. Those that appreciate the sunshine and excellent visibility should be happy with Friday, the start of what we expect to be succession of very sunny March days. 

Temperatures will moderate as the weekend progresses. Winds will soften a bit for Saturday as temperatures rise toward the 40 degree mark. Sunday then looks outstanding with minimal wind and afternoon temperatures up around 50 with a full dose of sunshine and perfect visibility. Sunday is actually the beginning of a spring weather setup that should feature several days (through Wednesday 3/24) where readings reach or exceed 50. This setup along the east coast will include some clouds, but those clouds should be confined to the Mid-Atlantic or coastal/southern New England while interior areas bask in sunshine. I've gotten pretty accustomed to seeing this type of weather in April and especially May in Vermont and it is clearly one of our most effective ways of steering clear of rotten spring east coast weather. In 2021 it looks like such a setup is coming early. One change from the Monday update relates to the intensity of the warmth. Though almost every day in the Monday-Friday time frame looks to be at least 50 at the base, 60-degrees looks elusive and we are likely to avoid the El Torchy like conditions capable of producing the stronger warmth. Though this will assuredly be magnificent early spring weather in Vermont, each of these mornings will feature sub-freezing temperatures and it will thus take a few hours for snow conditions to soften. As for the sunshine, we should see plenty of that through Wednesday as I mentioned, more clouds are likely late in the week with the best chance for any rainfall coming Friday. 

A return to some form of colder temperatures is likely during the weekend of the 27th and 28th appears likely but this appears to consist of very ordinary late March weather conditions including 40-45 degree days along with sub-freezing nights. Ahead of April 1st, I expect maybe one more day with accumulating snowfall but that is about the best I can give readers. Spring appears to be coming in hard and fast this year.

Dry weather dominates the rest of the week with another spring onslaught looking more likely next week

 If I officially declare this as the "give up on the winter" update, you might as well pencil in the April two footer somewhere into the calendar. Though the first half of the month has seen below normal temperatures in northern Vermont, in spite of the torch last week, it has been unusually dry with most of these same locations seeing less than a quarter inch of melted precipitation. This means that new natural snowfall has been elusive. I've actually been pretty amazed at the amount of sunshine across the northeast both during the warm and cold weather days. It is unusual for March almost anywhere in the northeast. 

So, if you're a fan of winter weather, this is not the update for you. Winter has returned to firm things up across the northern Vermont high country and is expected to remain mostly in place through Saturday with the exception of a few afternoons. Snowfall however appears to be one giant miss. The remnants of the giant Colorado snowstorm will evolve into a very meager overrunning type system and track well south of Vermont late on Tuesday. I am a little surprised that this system is expected to make so little northward progress as it progresses east but March is full of absolute randomness when it comes to how the weather behaves, often defying conventional wisdom by not aligning with what a forecaster might expect in a given weather pattern. The late week storm continues to look intriguing with a potent polar impulse just out ahead of an even more impressive southern streamer. This could have been the big elusive storm for northern Vermont but the two jet stream features are out of phase with the polar impulse arriving out in front of the southern branch feature and effectively flattening the pattern and keeping the track of this storm further south. A strong dose of sunshine on Tuesday will bring temperatures from near zero in the morning to near the freezing mark during the afternoon and we will improve on that on Wednesday with readings up near the 40-degree mark at the base. That potential late week storm will bring some clouds into the region Thursday but unless we see some big changes with how these two jet stream impulses interact, the mild air early Thursday will simply give way to cold dry air on Friday with very little snowfall during this transition. Sunshine looks to be another dominant force for the upcoming weekend, again helping temperatures recover from single digit start on Saturday to 35-40 and well into the 40's on Sunday. 

The "give up on the winter" vibe comes from what now appears to be a very mild week beginning on Monday March 22nd. The outlook was already trending warmer in this time period several days ago and it now looks like the 2nd big spring onslaught of the month with 60 degree readings possible on 2 days and 50 degree readings for as many as 4 days. The duration and intensity of the warmth stems from and depends on the evolution of another big weather system in the southern Rockies, this time further south.If the weather stays unsettled in this region of the country for an extended period of time it has the effect of pushing temperatures warmer over a large swatch of eastern North America and longer range forecast models are really keying in on that now. The European/Canadian ensembles are suggesting a cool down for the last weekend of March while the GFS Ensembles do not but the pattern overall does not support sustained amounts of winter weather at mid-latitudes, at least over North America after we pass the Spring Equinox.

Enjoy the spring interlude because winter weather returns for a 10-day period beginning this weekend and includes storm potential next week

 We got a little taste Wednesday but it was El Torchy extraordinaire on Thursday as mild south and southwesterly breezes effectively mixed some of the strong mid-level warmth down to the surface and on to the mountain. So this spring tease goes the way of many in Vermont, giving us 1 full day of corn horn though Wednesday we managed to soften roughly half the mountain. Thanks to a mild overnight on Thursday, we should wake up to more soft snow conditions early Friday but the initial boundary of cold air will have cleared us by early in the day and keep temperatures closer to the 40 degree mark across the upper part of the mountain and 45-50 at the base. 

Winter will return to the Vermont high country for the weekend with mostly sub-freezing temperatures in spite of some sunshine. We actually do have two legitimate chances for Champlain enhanced terrain snow with the first coming Friday night and likely depositing 1-3 ahead of a chilly Saturday. A reinforcing and more direct shot of arctic cold will bring the second chance for snow showers during the midday hours Sunday. I took an early look at some stability parameters for Sunday and it looks impressive for a few hours (much like it did March 1/2) but the incoming arctic chill is also very dry. In other words, whatever falls Sunday might be briefly intense but is not likely to sustain long enough for a big accumulation, just another 1-3. 

To summarize the outlook, the week beginning on the Ides of March looks colder and more wintry while following week beginning on March 22 appears milder. Throughout the period we will continue to see cold arctic air dominate much of eastern Canada, but the weakened Pacific Ocean jet stream is expected to allow this same cold to dominate much of New England next week as well and then relent somewhat during the following week. In addition to the cold temperatures, I think we have two decent chances for new snowfall and not the inconsequential kind. The first chance comes Tuesday night  into Wednesday from an overrunning type system that will try and mostly fail to bring milder temperatures into interior New England for the middle part of the week. These type of systems are not the kind that produce a foot or more of snow over a widespread area but I do expect a good zone of thump snow and I am hoping we can get in on that. The second storm on March 19/20 has the potential to be more significant with the necessary ingredients on the table for a big storm. One of those ingredients, a polar jet impulse that if nothing else, ensures that the weekend of the 20th/21st will be a wintry one as opposed to a more spring-like one with temperatures again staying mostly sub-freezing. To expand on that, it looks like all the thawing will be put on hold beginning March 13th with temperatures remaining almost entirely sub-freezing across the high country for a period of over a week.

As mentioned, the ensembles suggest temperatures will moderate beginning the 22nd of the month but they aren't suggesting a repeat of the spring-like weather being experienced currently. It is more likely that milder above-freezing days are mixed in with 1-2 more winter-like days. Pretty normal stuff for late March. 

More sunshine expected to accompany the spring-like temps this week with colder weather still expected for the weekend and beyond

 The first week of March 2021 has been both cold and windy and we certainly deserved more natural snow but it wasn't meant to be. We finally got the wind to abate on Sunday and the cold temperatures will begin to relent for Monday with readings pushing toward the 30 degree mark. With sunshine dominating the first two thirds of Monday, it will certainly feel like a warmer day. Sunshine will in fact be a big part of a very spring-like week in Vermont and has improved the near term part of our outlook even as colder more wintry weather continues to look like it will prevail from March 13th onward. 

 The clouds late in the day Monday, Monday night and into early Tuesday are associated with the milder push of temperatures. Some snow is expected to fall out of those clouds very late Monday evening/night, but this will yield only a minimal accumulation. Though my iphone is suggesting a full day of clouds on Tuesday (or is at least implying that), I do think those clouds give way to sunshine by midday setting up an outstanding afternoon with readings pushing toward the 40-degree mark. Wednesday then continues to look fantastic but with near 20-degree temperatures in the morning and minimal wind, it will take a few hours before we can soften the snow with the near 50 degree temperatures and 55-60 degree readings in some valley locations. The outlook for Thursday as also improved with the threat of rain greatly reduced and more sunshine expected. Thursday continues to look windier than Wednesday but this very mild wind will push temperatures well into the 50's, even on the mountain with readings touching 60 in some valley areas. Even early Friday looks very mild and it follows a warm overnight where temperatures remain above the 40-degree mark. Clouds and a period of rain might dampen part of Friday and the front responsible will officially end the Spring tease and colder wintry temps will return for Friday night into Saturday. 

Unfortunately the colder weekend temps will firm up conditions and will do so without much accompanying new snowfall. The sunshine will be nice, and we should at least a day of that this weekend but it would have been nicer with a 6-plus inch snowfall. The cold weather this weekend will be reinforced either Sunday or Sunday night and this 2nd blast, though temporary, appears to pack quite a punch (since it is the direct assault from northern Canada). We could see a decent round of snow showers and snow squalls on Sunday before readings plummet back toward into the single digits Sunday night. The temporary but intense nature of the cold blast this weekend is a nice illustration of a pattern that is largely the opposite of what we have seen much of this winter. The MJO appears headed for Phase 1, something we haven't seen for months and not at all this winter indicating a much looser and cooperative Pacific jet stream and both the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are expected to remain positive. More specifically, the persistent blocking we saw this year in the Hudson Strait and Labrador Sea (especially early this winter) is going to be replaced by cold and unsettled weather and the cold in eastern Canada is likely to remain there for the better part of the rest of March. I expect this to have a periodic impact on Vermont starting with the cold this weekend.

As for the snow, I don't think we see too much this weekend and accumulations will be confined to whatever we see from snow showers Sunday .There have been a few suggestions of a snowfall producing system in the middle of next week (around the time of St Patrick's Day) and this won't be our last chance. I also should point that although the outlook appears more winter-like after March 13th and will include a few decent shots of cold weather, mild spring-like weather will also make the occasional intrusion for a day here and a day there.

Winter locked in for the weekend with a big spring-tease for Tuesday - Thursday of next week

 It is a quiet snow forecast for the next week. It's not a dead snow outlook and winter 2021 is not dead but the warmer weather that has been promised to us for a few weeks, will arrive in the form of at least 2 50-plus days. In the near term however, it remains very wintry with temperatures that will struggle to reach the 20-degree mark both Friday and Saturday and will not do so at all above 2000 feet. Persistent winds of around 20-30 mph Friday and 15-25 mph Saturday will create wind chill readings below zero. Sunday's temperatures do look a few degrees warmer (20-25) and the wind appears a bit diminished but its nonetheless, a very cold weekend and a chilly first week to March with temperatures about 6-9 below average. As far as the snow forecast is concerned, northern Vermont is likely to pick up a little from snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. About 1-3 inches from Sugarbush northward. More flurries and snow showers can also be expected Saturday afternoon but I would only expect a dusting from those. Sunday will be dry. 

The last wintry day ahead of the big spring tease is Monday and it looks to be a nice one with decent amounts of sunshine, less amounts of wind and excellent visibility. On the mountain, temperatures should stay in the sub-freezing zone though valley areas could see readings in the middle 30's. Models are hinting at some warm-advection snow Monday night, but the strong push of spring-like warmth for the middle of the week would render any accumulation as a pretty small footnote. 

I am pretty happy with how the forecast has evolved regarding the warmth. Tuesday's near 40-degree temperatures when combined with the low dewpoints might not be enough to soften the snow at all elevations but increasing amounts of sunshine should still make for a beautiful day. I think Wednesday looks to be the real winner though with temperatures well  into the 50's at low elevations, well into the 40's across the high country and enough sunshine to make for both good visibility and soft snow. Thursday looks extremely mild as well (with temps at least as high as Wednesday) but winds look stronger, clouds look more prevalent and there's a chance for some rain. I want to leave some room for the Thursday forecast to improve because we know it will be mild, but have not gotten all the specifics nailed down. 

The ongoing clash between the high latitude jet stream blocking (cold) and irritated Pacific jet stream (mild) has seemingly raged all winter season but it seems as if both sides are experiencing battle fatigue and either have or will retreat. The blocking vanished 2 weeks ago and has opened the door for the spring tease next week while the Pacific is expected to recede over the next week allowing winter to return, especially across interior New England beginning March 13th. Over the last two days, ensembles have been reaffirming this notion going so far (as of Friday morning) as to suggest a stretch of below normal temperatures beginning on the 13th and persisting beyond the 20th. There's certainly room in this type of outlook for a significant snow event or two; in fact, I would more surprised if we didn't get one.

Cold through the weekend with snowfall limited to sporadic snow showers followed by some mild weather next week

 So the instability did bring in some very intense snow squalls Monday evening but I did neglect to mention the wind, which ferocious both Monday night into Tuesday, gusting to  over 50 mph across the summits of the northern Green Mountains and well over 100 mph for several hours at the summit of Mount Washington. The gusty winds will not completely abate by Wednesday but will subside to the more tolerable 10-20 mph range as opposed to the 30-40 mph range. The cold will also subside for a day with temperatures rising from the single numbers in the morning to about the freezing mark during the afternoon on the mountain and into the high 30's in the valley locations. Though clouds will be accompanied by a few intervals of sun during the day Wednesday, we can expect a small accumulation, 1-2 inches, of snow during the preceding overnight and more light snow is possible later in the day Wednesday as another arctic boundary approaches. 

The general ideas for the Thursday March 4th to Monday March 8th period have not changed. Temperatures on the mountain are expected to stay below the freezing mark but the threat for significant snow from any organized weather system remains low. The jet stream trough remaining just to our east places us in the more dry flank for any kind of weather. All this said, March is a more unstable month, climatologically speaking, thanks mostly to the combined effect of a higher sun angle and the lingering more winter-like jet stream dynamics. This means that even without the presence of a more organized synoptic weather system, snow showers or at least flurries will enhance as Thursday, Friday and Saturday progress and then dissipate upon each sunset. The wind will also return and will likely be an accompanying companion through the weekend, gusting again to 30 mph both Thursday and  Friday and continuing through the weekend at perhaps a slightly less intensity. Temperatures won't do much better than 20 each day on the mountain with the exception of Sunday which could reach the high 20's. 

 It seems that models finally have reached the conclusion that it will get pretty mild for a period of time next week.  Though most of Monday still appears to be sub-freezing on the mountain, the period between Tuesday March 9th and Friday March 12th could feature a decent round of thawing. The nature of this round of mild weather remains a bit uncertain however even though I think a sustained 48 hour period of 40-plus temperatures is looking more likely somewhere in this time frame. The questions relate to whether low clouds, fog or precipitation hinders the intensity of the warm up or whether we can actually procure 1-2 days with sunshine and readings closer to or above 50. History would suggest to me that interior New England can expect one good torchy day accompanied by sunshine with the surrounding days featuring more cloudiness. 

Those changes in the Pacific discussed in the last update are still likely to manifest themselves into a colder more typical March weather regime after March 13th. Though it doesn't appear to be period defined by sustained below normal temperatures, it does look very typical for mid to late March in Vermont and it certainly would reopen the door for more winter weather.