Snow has rapidly overspread interior New England and it is now time for the rubber to meet the road. This initial batch of precipitation is a bit more potent verses some my own expectations from a few days ago. I have no issues with this since the stronger upward motion associated with this precipitation will help keep the marginal temperature profile in central and northern Vermont generally below freezing. We still could see some sleet mix with what should be a period of moderate to heavy snow between mid-morning and late afternoon. Temperatures at the base will hover near 30 which could make the snow a bit wetter but I suspect temperatures on the summit will be cold enough to support the powdery stuff we have come to enjoy. I would not at all be surprised to see 6-10 inches simply from this initial burst of snow and all of this will come before dark Wednesday.
The big concern I have with the forecast involves the track of what will ultimately be a disorganizing low pressure center. Initially the storm is a more well-defined elongated low pressure area stretching from the southern Great Lakes to the New England coast. While the storm is in this "well defined" phase, the mountain will get its heavy burst of snow Wednesday. On Wednesday night and Thursday, the low pressure center will try and consolidate over southern New England as advertised but will gradually attain a more disheveled appearance. Although the area of lowest central pressure will pass south of the mountain, it will track close enough to the mountain to potentially allow the conveyor of moisture to push north of MRG. Models are having a very difficult time pinpointing this all important conveyor of moisture. There are models suggesting we are in the sweet spot and there are other indicators saying that the best snow falls north and east of the region. Various NWS offices seem to be interpreting the data in different ways and the forecast seems to lack coordination from one territory to another. I understand this is a lot of "mumbo jumbo" and the passage of the occluded storm is still expected to allow snowfall to be favored over the mountains Wednesday night, Thursday into Friday. The location of these important moist conveyor will simply determine whether we are on the low end of the 15-30 range or the high one. I can still maintain that both Thursday and Friday should be good days to ski. The Champlain Valley, the southern New England coastline, Rutland and Albany are all places that should not do particularly well from this storm. Accumulations will be more minimal and it is reflected in many of the forecasts that we all have access to. This event will be a significant one for the high country and even the base and summit of MRG could see contrasting conditions for a time.
Conditions will be drier for the weekend but flurries and snow showers will continue as this slow departing storm continues to have its progress slowed by blocking over the Hudson Strait. Valley locations will see more in the way of sunshine and should also see readings creep above freezing. There does appear to be indications of a storm early next week but this system is likely be guided well south of the region by a suppressed jet stream. A jet stream that should also ensure that early March is rain free and includes temperatures that support maintenance of our new and improved base.
Beyond March 5th, we continue to see good news. The overall weather pattern will be anchored by a trifecta of favorable teleconnection indicators. The result could mean a more widespread outbreak of cold for eastern North America and a major amplification of the jet stream that could include a big east coast snow event around March 8th or 9th. What a difference a year makes though. Last year at this time we saw clear indications of a major record breaking March melt down. This year we are seeing indications that wintry weather will persist through the mid part of the month. Enjoy the storm.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Sunday, February 24, 2013
3-day snowfall could make for an epic period late this week
Our eastern neighbors out-did us once again on the weekend snow. The limited snow we were able to pick up continues a nice stretch of winter on the mountain and one that appears destined to continue into March. The fun begins after two relatively calm, seasonable late February days Monday and Tuesday. I have just concluded my own Colorado ski extravaganza, one that included two epic days at Wolf Creek - an out-of-the-way hideout in the San Juan mountains that boasts 440 inches of snow annually. They don't lie either, they get an incredible amount of powder without the crowds or the high prices (the skiing there is twice as good as Breckenridge for half the price). Anyway I am now stuck in Denver thanks to 10 or so inches of wind blown powder that cancelled flights. This same storm will proceed east, strengthen, and produce some wet snow across the Midwest Tuesday. I am hoping for even bigger things in the New England high country thereafter.
Like a few of its predecessors, our midweek storm will mature and occlude prior its New England arrival. We will see a second coastal low try and develop late Tuesday and this will help spread the initial batch of precipitation into the Green Mountains early Wednesday. Temperatures will be marginal but the high elevations should see all snow, at least across northern Vermont which is another reason why a lot of us like to drive the hour north from Killington. Wednesday should thus feature snow with perhaps a little sleet mixed in and by the end of the day, a decent accumulation. The real beauty of this storm is its slow movement. The low pressure center will very gradually consolidate its energy not far from Boston, trapped by the blocking to the north. It will not be especially strong and will remain occluded which means it will have reached its peak intensity. An occluded storm produces weaker areas of precipitation but they are always focused over the high elevations and the light to moderate snow will persist well beyond Wednesday. Both Thursday and Friday should see accumulating snow and three day snow totals could be in the 15-30 inch range. Winds on the summits will be the worst Wednesday and be a bit gentler Thursday and Friday.
Beyond this weeks storm is some quieter weather. It should remains chilly enough to maintain the snow but the storm track will shift south. I am told this is good weather for the maple syrup folks being that the mornings will be chilly and the afternoons may creep above freezing thanks to sunshine. We could see some snow showers from wrap-around moisture stemming from any storm that gets wrapped up and stuck in the maritimes but that's about it unless we see some changes.
Like a few of its predecessors, our midweek storm will mature and occlude prior its New England arrival. We will see a second coastal low try and develop late Tuesday and this will help spread the initial batch of precipitation into the Green Mountains early Wednesday. Temperatures will be marginal but the high elevations should see all snow, at least across northern Vermont which is another reason why a lot of us like to drive the hour north from Killington. Wednesday should thus feature snow with perhaps a little sleet mixed in and by the end of the day, a decent accumulation. The real beauty of this storm is its slow movement. The low pressure center will very gradually consolidate its energy not far from Boston, trapped by the blocking to the north. It will not be especially strong and will remain occluded which means it will have reached its peak intensity. An occluded storm produces weaker areas of precipitation but they are always focused over the high elevations and the light to moderate snow will persist well beyond Wednesday. Both Thursday and Friday should see accumulating snow and three day snow totals could be in the 15-30 inch range. Winds on the summits will be the worst Wednesday and be a bit gentler Thursday and Friday.
Beyond this weeks storm is some quieter weather. It should remains chilly enough to maintain the snow but the storm track will shift south. I am told this is good weather for the maple syrup folks being that the mornings will be chilly and the afternoons may creep above freezing thanks to sunshine. We could see some snow showers from wrap-around moisture stemming from any storm that gets wrapped up and stuck in the maritimes but that's about it unless we see some changes.
Friday, February 22, 2013
6-12 Saturday night into Sunday but are bigger things on the way for the end of the month ?
The coastal low which is expected take shape Saturday near the Virginia Tidewater will strengthen Saturday night and pass about 100 miles east of Cape Cod Sunday. This is good enough for snow which should begin late in the ski day Saturday and continue into Saturday night, good enough for a powder day Sunday but a bit short of an epic storm. Snow should continue lightly through a good part of Sunday and accumulations are likely to be in the 6-12 inch range. Following up on the midweek powder, this puts the mountain in very good shape, perhaps the best of the season.
We can move the situation from "very good" to "epic" quickly next week with a fortuitous bounce from the snow gods. A situation that seems to be distinctive to the late season but one that could have east coast powder hounds salivating and one that could leave the western powder lovers quite jealous. We talked about it Wednesday - another big storm getting wrapped up and occluding in the Great Lakes. Gradually however, this storm will proceed to the Atlantic Coast and is indicated to re-strengthen, perhaps in a big way. It will all be about conveyors of moisture and where they set up because the storm is likely going to get trapped along the coast by the Hudson Strait block to the north and an amplifying jet stream to the west. It's a situation conducive for several days of snow and some big accumulation totals and I am not talking about 6-12 inches. Stay tuned.
We can move the situation from "very good" to "epic" quickly next week with a fortuitous bounce from the snow gods. A situation that seems to be distinctive to the late season but one that could have east coast powder hounds salivating and one that could leave the western powder lovers quite jealous. We talked about it Wednesday - another big storm getting wrapped up and occluding in the Great Lakes. Gradually however, this storm will proceed to the Atlantic Coast and is indicated to re-strengthen, perhaps in a big way. It will all be about conveyors of moisture and where they set up because the storm is likely going to get trapped along the coast by the Hudson Strait block to the north and an amplifying jet stream to the west. It's a situation conducive for several days of snow and some big accumulation totals and I am not talking about 6-12 inches. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Good news comes in 3's
Good news regarding recent accumulation totals across northern Vermont and more good news regarding powder prospects this weekend and even more good news regarding the pattern going forward. Terrain induced snow showers and flurries continue through a good part of Thursday and if we are lucky, we can squeeze out a few fluffy inches over the high elevations. Friday is our dry day and one of the more comfortable days of the month with good visibility, calm winds and temperatures near 30 during the afternoon.
The storm in question will be one of the bigger snow producers over Kansas this year Wednesday and Thursday. As this particular low pressure center tracks east, it will actually weaken and as such, had us east coast powder hounds concerned of a fizzle. It is critical that as is initial storm decays, coastal redevelopment commences prior to the weekend and that is exactly what the last two to three cycle of model runs have suggested. Furthermore, the coastal low is indicated to track close enough to the New England so that the snow shield overspreads much of Vermont late Saturday into Saturday night. This remains a somewhat fluid situation especially since a small shift in the track or intensity of the coastal low could impact snow accumulations. For now I am conservatively hoping for another 6 inches prior to Sunday morning.
Much of next week will be at least slightly on the milder side of what we consider normal. The early part the week appears dry, the middle to end of the week could be "an all of the above". It looks like a monster of a storm could get pretty wrapped up across the middle of the country, occlude and spin its way toward the Atlantic Coast. As this is occurring, we should see an conveyor of warm temperature wrap itself into New England allowing for some non-frozen precipitation. As the storm proceeds to the coast however, we could see more in the way of snow. By the weekend and early March, colder temperatures and a colder overall pattern will settle over eastern North America. In spite of the potential for a bit of mid week rain, we could see additional powder late next week and even more in the first week of March.
The storm in question will be one of the bigger snow producers over Kansas this year Wednesday and Thursday. As this particular low pressure center tracks east, it will actually weaken and as such, had us east coast powder hounds concerned of a fizzle. It is critical that as is initial storm decays, coastal redevelopment commences prior to the weekend and that is exactly what the last two to three cycle of model runs have suggested. Furthermore, the coastal low is indicated to track close enough to the New England so that the snow shield overspreads much of Vermont late Saturday into Saturday night. This remains a somewhat fluid situation especially since a small shift in the track or intensity of the coastal low could impact snow accumulations. For now I am conservatively hoping for another 6 inches prior to Sunday morning.
Much of next week will be at least slightly on the milder side of what we consider normal. The early part the week appears dry, the middle to end of the week could be "an all of the above". It looks like a monster of a storm could get pretty wrapped up across the middle of the country, occlude and spin its way toward the Atlantic Coast. As this is occurring, we should see an conveyor of warm temperature wrap itself into New England allowing for some non-frozen precipitation. As the storm proceeds to the coast however, we could see more in the way of snow. By the weekend and early March, colder temperatures and a colder overall pattern will settle over eastern North America. In spite of the potential for a bit of mid week rain, we could see additional powder late next week and even more in the first week of March.
Sunday, February 17, 2013
3-6 inches of snow Tuesday night and "hopefully" more during the upcoming weekend
At the jet stream level over the next week, the two big prevailing features on the weather map are a blocking ridge across the Hudson Strait and the broad ridge in the mid-latitude Pacific which we have appropriately named "the evil empire". We saw this general set up in the last half of December and active pattern was the result then and we are expecting an active pattern this go round. "The evil empire" which consists of a tightened Pacific Jet Stream can produce some powerful systems but also act to force a northward retreat of Arctic cold. Both of these byproducts will be on display over the next 10 days which should feature moderating temperatures but talk of precipitation, hopefully mostly in the form of snow.
One of the issues going back into December was the early maturation of some of these healthy looking Pacific storm systems. As a result, the mountain often got a weakened version of these once vigorous systems or dealt with problems relating to a lack of cold air. Still, the period stretching from mid-December through new years was the snowiest period of the year and we would take a similar result this time. The first storm system in what should be an extended series of storms will peak in the Great Lakes, occlude and then spin into the St Lawrence Valley. The occlusion will halt the warm push of air and allow the relatively brief period of precipitation Tuesday night into early Wednesday to be snow. This will not be a healthy system when it arrives and snowfall accumulations will be in the 3-6 inch range. It is enough to produce a bit of a powder day Wednesday ? Yes !
I still have high hopes for the 2nd system which will be a big snow producer in the 4 corners region but like its predecessor, will reach its maturation too early. Yes there is a dirty R-rated analogy that I could use here but this is a family friendly blog and I thus stick to the baseball or football analogies. The occlusion, which will again occur over the Midwest is essentially the end of the strengthening phase and as the storm pushes east, its area of moisture and precipitation will slowly decay. What can reverse this process is the development of a coastal low on Friday or Saturday of the upcoming week. This will produce an enhanced area of precipitation that would raise the potential for a healthy accumulation of snow for the upcoming weekend. I hope this occurs but to be perfectly candid, recent model guidance has not been particularly bullish on big snow from this storm, at least right now, although there is plenty of time for models to change their tune.
The active pattern will indeed produce at least a three-part series or trilogy of systems. The third strikes around the 26th or 27th of February. We will face the same challenges with this system including early maturation over the Midwest and potentially even a lack of cold air. The Hudson Strait blocking ridge is thus a critical part of the puzzle. Ideally, a feature like this prevents weather systems from invading the eastern provinces of Canada. We need to get another such assist; otherwise, we could be dealing with a precipitation producer other than snow. There are indications of potentially one more system prior to or during the first full weekend in March. At this point, the jet in the Pacific is expected to weaken which could allow for some colder temperatures to get into the mix.
One of the issues going back into December was the early maturation of some of these healthy looking Pacific storm systems. As a result, the mountain often got a weakened version of these once vigorous systems or dealt with problems relating to a lack of cold air. Still, the period stretching from mid-December through new years was the snowiest period of the year and we would take a similar result this time. The first storm system in what should be an extended series of storms will peak in the Great Lakes, occlude and then spin into the St Lawrence Valley. The occlusion will halt the warm push of air and allow the relatively brief period of precipitation Tuesday night into early Wednesday to be snow. This will not be a healthy system when it arrives and snowfall accumulations will be in the 3-6 inch range. It is enough to produce a bit of a powder day Wednesday ? Yes !
I still have high hopes for the 2nd system which will be a big snow producer in the 4 corners region but like its predecessor, will reach its maturation too early. Yes there is a dirty R-rated analogy that I could use here but this is a family friendly blog and I thus stick to the baseball or football analogies. The occlusion, which will again occur over the Midwest is essentially the end of the strengthening phase and as the storm pushes east, its area of moisture and precipitation will slowly decay. What can reverse this process is the development of a coastal low on Friday or Saturday of the upcoming week. This will produce an enhanced area of precipitation that would raise the potential for a healthy accumulation of snow for the upcoming weekend. I hope this occurs but to be perfectly candid, recent model guidance has not been particularly bullish on big snow from this storm, at least right now, although there is plenty of time for models to change their tune.
The active pattern will indeed produce at least a three-part series or trilogy of systems. The third strikes around the 26th or 27th of February. We will face the same challenges with this system including early maturation over the Midwest and potentially even a lack of cold air. The Hudson Strait blocking ridge is thus a critical part of the puzzle. Ideally, a feature like this prevents weather systems from invading the eastern provinces of Canada. We need to get another such assist; otherwise, we could be dealing with a precipitation producer other than snow. There are indications of potentially one more system prior to or during the first full weekend in March. At this point, the jet in the Pacific is expected to weaken which could allow for some colder temperatures to get into the mix.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Still hints of some snow Saturday but much better powder potential next week from two storms
The consensus for the upcoming weekend suggests that after a light accumulation of snow early Friday, there won't be much else through Sunday aside from flurries. This would obviously be a bit of a disappointment considering the period had enormous potential for us. Even at this late hour however, it would still not be impossible for a system to quickly get churned up Friday night into early Saturday and bring snow to New England. The mid morning release of the American model suggested such and the afternoon release of the Euro suggested some snow for eastern Mass and coastal/downeast Maine. If it looks looks like the proverbial powder pot is going to get stirred up on Saturday I will update via twitter. A fair assessment of the current data suggests a generally dry, blustery and chilly weekend with temperatures ranging from near zero into the mornings to near 20 in the afternoons.
Even if the holiday weekend is mostly powder free, the outlook for the upcoming 5 days following President's Day is worthy of much discussion. A much more active pattern will establish early in this time frame and should hopefully persist through at least the end of February. So far, there are two storms that have their sights set on the Green Mountains. I still expect both to be snow producers although the first is attempting to threaten VT with a warm push.
Storm number 1 will spin its way out of the Rockies Monday and become an overgrown adolescent, maturing to quickly and occluding over the eastern Great Lakes. The occlusion is important because it will slow the push of warmer temperatures into New England Tuesday. What I hope happens is that a coastal low forms when this system interacts with the Atlantic and allows snow to enhance over the high country of Vermont. There is data suggesting such and other data suggesting that the event doesn't amount to that much. The blocking over the Hudson Strait will I think prevent this system from being anything else other than a snow producer although there are models suggesting a turnover to sleet or freezing rain. In the end I think storm #1 is quick hit with a few inches at worst and 6-12 inches at best.
The second in this two storm series is a much stronger and capable system that should produce some epic powder in Colorado in the middle of next week. As it pushes into the southern Plains, it will gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and head northeast. This system is also likely to occlude a bit early meaning that its intensity will peak out before it reaches New England. Nonetheless, this is a powerful storm and very capable of producing a foot or more powder before the last full weekend of the month. Snowfall from this system could persist for multiple days as instability could linger over interior New England allowing for additional terrain induced powder. The risk is that the storm confines its impact to areas well to the south.
Ideally, this move to an active pattern has the "trilogy" of storms including one more around the 26th or so of the month. There are hints of this in the ensembles but I don't want "the hobbit" style trilogy. I like many was very annoyed that this 1-book story was broken up to milk the cash cow. We would certainly welcome a Lord Of The Rings or an early Star Wars trilogy.
Even if the holiday weekend is mostly powder free, the outlook for the upcoming 5 days following President's Day is worthy of much discussion. A much more active pattern will establish early in this time frame and should hopefully persist through at least the end of February. So far, there are two storms that have their sights set on the Green Mountains. I still expect both to be snow producers although the first is attempting to threaten VT with a warm push.
Storm number 1 will spin its way out of the Rockies Monday and become an overgrown adolescent, maturing to quickly and occluding over the eastern Great Lakes. The occlusion is important because it will slow the push of warmer temperatures into New England Tuesday. What I hope happens is that a coastal low forms when this system interacts with the Atlantic and allows snow to enhance over the high country of Vermont. There is data suggesting such and other data suggesting that the event doesn't amount to that much. The blocking over the Hudson Strait will I think prevent this system from being anything else other than a snow producer although there are models suggesting a turnover to sleet or freezing rain. In the end I think storm #1 is quick hit with a few inches at worst and 6-12 inches at best.
The second in this two storm series is a much stronger and capable system that should produce some epic powder in Colorado in the middle of next week. As it pushes into the southern Plains, it will gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and head northeast. This system is also likely to occlude a bit early meaning that its intensity will peak out before it reaches New England. Nonetheless, this is a powerful storm and very capable of producing a foot or more powder before the last full weekend of the month. Snowfall from this system could persist for multiple days as instability could linger over interior New England allowing for additional terrain induced powder. The risk is that the storm confines its impact to areas well to the south.
Ideally, this move to an active pattern has the "trilogy" of storms including one more around the 26th or so of the month. There are hints of this in the ensembles but I don't want "the hobbit" style trilogy. I like many was very annoyed that this 1-book story was broken up to milk the cash cow. We would certainly welcome a Lord Of The Rings or an early Star Wars trilogy.
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Models downplaying big weekend snow but we at least get some and then more next week
It's crunch time in the ski season and it would be nice to follow up on last weekend's big winter storm with some additional snows. The decent looking southern branch system tracking toward the Delmarva Wednesday will actually bring some wet snow to some areas already buried by last weekends snow but interior New England will stay dry and be forced to wait for the big weekend jet amplification for any real action. The recent cycle of model runs has generally downplayed the big storm potential this weekend and is suggesting a briefer period of light snow and a light accumulation ahead of another surge of Arctic cold. The Canadian model released Tuesday afternoon still produced a "doozy" of a winter storm (borrowing the phrase from "Groundhog Day") for the weekend with a whole gammit of winter weather including some big snow for the high country. Although the Canadian solution seems less likely, it still illustrates the potential in such a setup. When a jet amplification of this magnitude occurs, the atmosphere becomes a powder keg along the Atlantic Coast and it is very easy to churn up something big. At the very least though, we should be able to produce a few inches Friday night into early Saturday. The weekend appears to be a chilly one with temperatures in the teens by day and below zero at least Sunday and Monday mornings.
Flurries and snow showers will accompany the colder weather over the weekend even if we don't get a big snow. The holiday Monday however appears to be on the dry side, dominated by a cold high pressure center. Temperatures will then moderate Tuesday into Wednesday but the focus will be on what appears to be a relatively organized weather system which will move out of the Rockies late this weekend and approach MRG by Tuesday. The playing field will consist of a decaying area of cold and a storm which may track up the St Lawrence Valley. This is a recipe for a warm push but there will be serious resistance and a healthy overrunning zone across New England. As a result, I am of the opinion, for now that this system will mostly be a snow producer in spite of some model guidance suggesting otherwise. The SCWB will keep a close eye on this since I know many plan on heading to the mountains during the upcoming holiday week. A second even more organized system should crush the eastern Rockies with snow during the middle of next week and then proceed to cross the country with some serious energy and moisture. By this point, there will be plenty of available cold air and the critical question will probably relate to whether snow from this storm will reach interior New England or whether we stay dry.
The pattern during the holiday week and persisting through the duration of the month should be an active one. It is as I mentioned a battle between a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a tightened Pacific Jet. The ensembles are indicating that the dreaded mid-latitude Pacific Ocean upper ridge (the evil empire) will not be a total party pooper and will position itself closer to Hawaii as opposed to the eastern Pacific. What I am hoping as an end result consists of limited cold and plenty of winter storms crossing the country.
Flurries and snow showers will accompany the colder weather over the weekend even if we don't get a big snow. The holiday Monday however appears to be on the dry side, dominated by a cold high pressure center. Temperatures will then moderate Tuesday into Wednesday but the focus will be on what appears to be a relatively organized weather system which will move out of the Rockies late this weekend and approach MRG by Tuesday. The playing field will consist of a decaying area of cold and a storm which may track up the St Lawrence Valley. This is a recipe for a warm push but there will be serious resistance and a healthy overrunning zone across New England. As a result, I am of the opinion, for now that this system will mostly be a snow producer in spite of some model guidance suggesting otherwise. The SCWB will keep a close eye on this since I know many plan on heading to the mountains during the upcoming holiday week. A second even more organized system should crush the eastern Rockies with snow during the middle of next week and then proceed to cross the country with some serious energy and moisture. By this point, there will be plenty of available cold air and the critical question will probably relate to whether snow from this storm will reach interior New England or whether we stay dry.
The pattern during the holiday week and persisting through the duration of the month should be an active one. It is as I mentioned a battle between a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a tightened Pacific Jet. The ensembles are indicating that the dreaded mid-latitude Pacific Ocean upper ridge (the evil empire) will not be a total party pooper and will position itself closer to Hawaii as opposed to the eastern Pacific. What I am hoping as an end result consists of limited cold and plenty of winter storms crossing the country.
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