Polar jet putting the squeeze on late Friday potential snow while pattern gonna force us to play some defense in early Feb

I was somewhat disappointed with the snowfall Wednesday but was more perturbed by the 20-degree bust on temperatures. The closest thing we have to a Santa Ana wind here is when we get one from the southwest, something that occurred yesterday for 2 hours, caused temperatures to spike all the way to 30-degrees before falling back toward expectations by later in the day. In spite of all that, Thursday turned into a nice semi bluebird special with some fresh powder on the mountain, excellent visibility and a chilly but tolerable wind. 

An area of low pressure in the central plains, has a healthy area of moisture associated with it on its eastward trek across the United States. This is a good looking setup at face value, yet the formidable polar jet is going to squeeze this sucker and ultimately prevent a decent area of snowfall to develop across interior New England. At least we'll manage to avoid the rain I suppose though its hard not to think of this as a wasted opportunity with so many of the right ingredients available to us. Friday's weather will thus consist of clouds and moderating temperatures through the middle of the afternoon followed by a period of light snow persisting late into Friday night. By Saturday morning, bluebird weather is back with a snowfall unlikely to exceed 1-3 inches. It's not an ideal situation for anyone with rain or mixed precipitation be the featured story as you head south and only light snow to the north. This storm, unfortunately seems very unlikely to evolve into a significant snow producer for hardly anyone. At least February arrives wintry and it follows a month of January that saw little to no rain, depending on your elevation. Saturday will be cold accompanied by a stiff northerly wind and temperatures in the single numbers accompanied by sunshine. Sunday should start sunny with sub-zero temps and finish with clouds and readings in the teens along with light winds. 

Lots of weather of all kinds for the first week of February and uncertainty remains as to the actual outcome. A dose of cold snow Sunday night should bring 2-6 inches of powder our way for the ski day Monday, a day that will eventually feature milder temperatures that get close to the freezing mark and will likely exceed it in valley areas thanks to that lovely southwest wind. Arctic air then reasserts itself for Tuesday returning the thermometer to the teens and providing us with a bit of sunshine. Then all the question marks come and we will see what kind of defense we can muster for the late-week period. Ensembles are putting us on defense a lot in the first half of February. Though arctic air is expected to remain close, its getting very difficult to imagine us getting to February 15th without a day of mixed precipitation, rain or a substantial 1-2 day thaw. As for late next week, it remains possible. The Euro continues to bring a storm system up through the St Lawrence Valley with ice and rain deep into northern Vermont on Thursday February 6th. This is a bias of the Euro model though and other simulations are still suggesting a different and better outcome so its probably best to let this play out a little before hitching our wagons to anything. 

This basic setup is expected to rinse and repeat a few times  through the middle of the month as I mentioned. It reminds me a little of the early February '22 setup which gave us some lousy weather and also the best storm of the season. The core of the coldest air across the entire globe is on our continent, just on the wrong side of it (Alberta, Saskatchewan, northern Rocky Mountains). This cold is shown to extend into eastern Canada which means if we can flatten this pattern out a bit and void the big amplifiers, we could see some bigger storms. Can't say the same for southern ski areas from Pennsylvania southward which can expect a lot of bad results and not many good ones in this setup. 

6-10 inches of beautiful cold snow Tuesday night into Wednesday and a little more is expected going into this weekend

Lots items on the weather map for the next two weeks. A lot of that is good and we have one big concern now that we can highlight and root hard to avoid. The short term outlook is fantastic, and a bit of snow has been added to the outlook going into what should be an awesome, wintry looking weekend. 

Our clipper system is on time and on target and we appear to be in a pretty good spot though not entirely bullseyed. Snow will begin around midnight Wednesday and fall through some very cold near 10 degree air. First tracks time should feature 3-5 fresh and powdery inches and though the snow won't get especially heavy, we should able to double that total by Wednesday evening as snow tapers to flurries. Arctic air has retreated across much of the country with the exception of interior New England which should see readings in the single numbers along with sunshine on Thursday. Winds appear gusty Thursday morning and then taper off substantially by the end of ski day. 

The weather is coming at us in a fast and furious way in this very energized jet stream. You don't like the weather one day, just sleep it off and something different gonna happen tomorrow and this is the way it will be for a bit. Our last day of January will feature more cloudiness and considerably milder temperatures. It appears cold enough to snow as precipitation arrives in the afternoon though I am a little c concern we see a mixed precipitation period if winds stay southwesterly. Fortunately, any of that mix is expected to become snow Friday evening as temperatures turn colder. This weather map appears very different than a few days ago and includes a much more organized storm system that is getting squeezed by advancing arctic air from the north and mild air from the south. It's moving quickly, limiting our snowfall potential though we can still expect a few inches ahead of a wintry and sunny weekend. Saturday is blustery and cold with temperatures in the teens and improving visibility. Sunday should feature early sun, and little wind followed by afternoon clouds and a little more wind. Temperatures should finish the weekend near 20

More fast moving and constantly changing weather for the beginning of next week. We can expect a bit of snow Sunday night and  Monday from what appears to be a benign storm followed by some colder air for the middle of the week. This is when things start to look dicey. Though we have some arctic air in place and could find our way to score some big overrunning snows, ensembles have dealt us a blow by showing a strong push of milder temperatures late next week that might prove a challenge to completely ward off. February is a time where northern Vermont can play some of its most effective defense and I've seen dicey situations turn amazing during this part of the season. Much depends on how amplified the jet stream becomes in western North America. A well organized deep amplification featuring deep snowfall across the southern Rocky Mountains can result in a thaw across Vermont in any part of the winter, but if the amplification proves to be a bit more broken up and less organized, the northward push of milder air in eastern North American can run out of gas. 

There are encouraging signs subsequent to the thorny questions revolving around Feb 7. One of the visible features in the simulated jet stream is a ridge across Alaska extending into the Arctic and polar air should never become too far removed and we can expect a return following whatever results we get at the end of next week.  The EPO continues to show a willingness to cooperate and has been an important ally all winter. The arctic air retreat this week and potential trouble late next week is more a result of PNA issues and loss of AO support. The latter appears to want to come around as we move deeper into February.

Teaser snow for early Tuesday and then 5-10 inches of cold snow Wednesday

The west to southwest wind is one that typically blows strong and warm even in northern Vermont. Fortunately, the prevailing airmass is an arctic in origin and temperatures on the mountain are the warmest version of sub-freezing and nothing more. We had round one of this Sunday with another round coming Monday. A cold front extending south from a clipper system will bring our first period of snow for the last week of January. It starts within a few hours of dawn Tuesday, ends within a few hours after dawn and should bring 2-4 inches of snow to the mountains.

The early Tuesday snow will mark the reemergence of colder air that is expected to remain in place through ar least February 1st. More on that in a bit. Until then there is a lot happening thanks to a fast flowing jet stream. A more dynamic looking clipper is expected to approach as advertised and we look to be in a decent spot for a round of cold snow during the ski day Wednesday. The snow should actually begin before the ski day but persist through much of it and accumulate 5-10 inches. Southern Vermont does appear to be slightly better than us for the heaviest snow though not by much. Regardless, I never complain about a good cold snow and this one will occur with temperatures near 10 degrees. Following the snow, we get a brief but direct shot of bitterly cold air. Be prepared for a ski day Thursday with some wind and temperatures near zero before temperatures moderate Friday,.

The pattern is certainly shifting as February arrives and should result in drastically different weather conditions for much of eastern North America. Keep in mind that for several regions in the southern US, the recent month of January has been the coldest in 15 years or more. Across interior New England, I am not so convinced that the changes, though less wintry in many areas, are less wintry for us. The EPO, after all brief positive interlude this week, is expected to tack its way back up not negative territory and help provide some resistance against any full scale continental scouring of cold, which we are not expecting to see. Instead we should expect to a major part of the action with storminess that should take good aim at us and even if the coldest air is focused on the western part of the continent. Lots of specifies to unpack so I won’t open the suitcase too much in this update. I couldn’t even if I tried though I can say that our next chance for significant weather is Sunday Feb 2 and there should be more thereafter. The risk of a material thaw is elevated in that first full week fo February though I don't consider it likely yet. 

MIdweek clipper emerges as biggest snow threat over the next 7 days

Every winter seems to have a different personality and this one is strikingly different than the last few. Last year had a mild and cloudy personality and this year could not be more different. This January could very well finish 8 degrees colder or more than January 2024 while featuring a doubling of bluebird days. So far the big storm has been elusive, but we've had a dry January and when I say that, I mean no rain. We saw some mixed precipitation with the wet snow on New Year's Day and its been snow and cold ever since with nickle and dime snows. This is the way the month is poised to finish and one has to be excited about some of the model simulations released late Friday for the mid-week clipper event. 

Sunshine through about early afternoon means most of the ski day is bluebird on Saturday. It's still chilly  with temperatures rising only to about 20 degrees, but winds remain light helping the comfort level. Sunday is cloudier, windier, temperatures will be up a few degrees and we should see a bit of light snow. The westerly winds  means the best accumulations are in the Stowe to Jay Peak corridor while MRG and Sugarbush get more of a 1-3 inch snow . Sunday's snowfall is the first in a series of clipper events that will break the recent dry stretch of dry weather caused by the recent intrusion of arctic cold. 

There's a lot happening next week and will be hard to digest it all in one reading. Arctic air is undergoing a partial retreat and a fast jet stream is sending a lot of disturbances our way. Monday will start tranquil and then the wind is expected to pick up, enough perhaps to bring temperatures up above the freezing mark in valley locations. Clouds will increase and we should see a bit of snow from a clipper centered well to our north. Things could change but the snow appears most likely to fall early Tuesday and be mechanically induced which means its mostly associated with the front expected to bring a resurgent area of arctic cold to the region. The Tuesday ski day should have some fresh snow but only a minimal 1-4 inch amount. 

Wednesday is much more interesting. This clipper appears significantly more energetic at jet stream level and may receive some Atlantic Ocean help when its impact is felt in northern Vermont. I want to be careful here because models have moved the best area of snow both north and south at varying times and I am not totally convinced a final answer has been reached. A 6-12 inch cold snow seems to be a very viable answer, most of which would fall during the ski day Wednesday. A direct shot of bitterly cold arctic air is likely to hit interior New England in the wake of whatever snow falls Wednesday. It will be temporary but will make Thursday windy with temperatures close to zero on the mountain. Friday should see a moderation in temperatures after a cold start and should feature less wind. 

A few model simulations are suggesting a threat of milder temperatures during the first week of February and potentially as early as Sunday Feb 2. I am going to remain skeptical of any multi-day torch across southern New England even if its advertised on long range models. I certainly expect dramatically milder weather across the Ohio Valley and deep south which has just experienced the coldest month in over a decade in some instances. The negative EPO which is again expected to reemerge in early February should help counteract the loss of AO support and make for what I think could be an interesting period of weather. Traditionally, the battle of mild air across the south and arctic air in southern Canada can make it stormy in New England and there are some indications on the longer range ensembles. We will see how it evolves.

Temps remain wintry but moderate for the weekend and a clipper train next week

Tuesday, January 21st featured a historic day of winter weather for potions of the deep south. The corridor from Houston to the Louisiana bayou (New Orleans included) and all the way to the Florida panhandle saw a significant snowfall. It wasn't just a wet snowfall on grass in some instances either, powder snow fell on Bourbon Street and temperature fell to the single numbers in places like Gulfport, MS and Lake Charles, LA. It's not been a year where storminess in the southern plains or Gulf Coast region comes northeast and amounts to much in New England. On the flip side, the clipper system has been revived and is alive and will be the story as far as new snowfall is concerned over the coming week to 10 days. I don't think this relationship is accidental either. With storminess in the mid latitude and southern portion of the jet stream more subdued, it allows clipper systems to be more robust and deliver more effectively for northern Vermont.

A succession of bluebird days has accompanied the cold weather in recent days and we might be able to squeeze a few hours of sun out of Thursday before clouds increase. This first clipper appears to be falling apart upon its arrival and the combination of clouds and flurries appears to be the likely end result Thursday night into Friday. After another sub-zero morning, temperatures are expected to moderate, climbing into the teens Thursday and Friday. Sunshine is expected to then return for Saturday before our first chance for some accumulating snow comes Sunday (it would be light). The bigger story for the weekend is the comfort level. Saturday morning will be cold but sunshine and minimal wind will make the 20 degree afternoon feel nice. Sunday will feature a bit more wind and some light snow but temperatures are expected to climb into the 20's. 

My hopes for a big storm early next week appear dashed. Again, not been a good year to bet on anything coming out of the southern stream and I am no longer doing that for the last Monday or Tuesday of January. That said, the clipper train is robust and should deliver on multiple occasions. The first dose of snow comes after a windy Monday. Thankfully, its just stale arctic air and this will prevent a snow scouring as temperatures only reach 30 under some clouds. The snow would fall Monday night into early Tuesday and would amount to a light accumulation. A better looking clipper system with heavier snowfall amounts is then possible during the middle of the week. Pretty much all the model simulations are indicating a decent swath of snow from this but disagreement remains as to where it happens. 

The longer range has us looking at the first full week of February and its the same type of theme to what was discussed a few days ago. We see some jet tightening in the Pacific but conditions then stabilize, perhaps even neutralize by the first of the month. The jet stream structure consists of a ridge over the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands and this teleconnects more with cold across western North America. It does not force arctic air into deep retreat however and we are expecting a decent amount to linger over southern Canada, making occasional New England intrusions. It helps to have a few feedbacks working in our favor now with some ice now on the Great Lakes and the Hudson Bay finally frozen. Big warmup expected for the southeast, but New England is in the of fire for storms if one does materialize.

Shallow, stable arctic cold to keep the skies bluer through Wednesday and some storm potential emerging early next week

 The south wind did what it often does in our neck of the woods on Saturday. Temperatures were warmer than expected and snowfall failed to meet expectations though I suppose we should've been happy there was any in the forecast at all. We got a make-up call Sunday night as the late-blooming nor'easter manage to give us a 2 inch grazing. Now the story is shallow, stable arctic cold and some blustery northwest winds. We got one bluebird day out of this setup Monday and should get another partial one for Tuesday with temps again near zero on the mountain and maybe upwards of 10 in valley locations. Winds Tuesday will be similar at the summits at about 20 mph producing well-below zero wind chills. Cover up. 

Winds are expected to diminish for Wednesday and some early sunshine may or may not get dimmed by late day cloudiness. Expect similar temps as the prior two days with the shallow stable eliminating snowfall potential through Wednesday evening. A very limited amount of moisture is expected to work its way into Vermont on Thursday as temperatures begin to modify. This might be enough to produce a period or periods of very light snow and a minimal accumulation. The disturbance responsible is expected to clear by Friday allowing for some sunshine to return and afternoon temperatures to make a bid for the 20 degree mark. 

Subtropical moisture and storminess is expected to create all kinds of problems along the Gulf Coast from Houston eastward to the Louisiana bayou country. Some of those areas will see significant snowfall to go along with cold temperatures and that storminess is expected to remain well south of us through most of the upcoming weekend (the last of January).  We weaker clipper system is likely to bring a minimal amount of snowfall and temperatures will remain slightly below normal and well below freezing. This could all change early next week as the next batch of moisture out of the phase could potentially phase with a relaxing polar jet or gain some strength along the eastern seaboard and become something of significance. Model simulations have yielded us some mixed messages but enough of them are saying something and something isn't nothing and that's about the easiest way to think about it. 

A potential storm early next week is likely going to be followed by another round of cold for the middle of the week. This would go along with my expectations of no mild intrusions through the end of January. The pattern is expected to get a little dicey in early February. The GFS ensembles have been showing a pretty material EPO surge or tightening of the jet stream in the Pacific. The European ensembles are more split showing a tightening of the jet in the eastern Pacific but a more favorable one int the Central Pacific. They could use some storminess in southern California obviously though the storms in this pattern would be focused more on the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. As I mentioned portions of the southeast and Ohio Valley can expect a big moderation in temperatures though much like what was indicated a few days ago, there is a core of arctic cold that is expected to hold its position in eastern Canada and thus the outlook for interior New England I would not categorize as overwhelmingly mild. No strong hints of an organized storm for early February as of yet (the biggest hint is early next week, Jan 27/28), but a partially retreated polar jet might is more likely to keep the door open for something to come at us. 

MLK weekend starts mild, finishes cold and now includes a bit more potential snowfall

 We saw a little mixed precipitation with the wet snow that fell on New Year's Day and since then we've seen persistent cold and a lot over-performing nickle and dime events. It's added up to some fantastic mid-January skiing which will carry right though the MLK holiday period. The weather situation for the weekend has evolved a bit and now includes some likely additional snow on Sunday though the same general theme holds with milder weather at the start and eventually a bitterly cold finish on Monday. 

Winds are expected to become southerly on Saturday and in certain circumstances, those can really rip through the valley and warm temperatures beyond expectations. It's possible we could see temperatures up toward 40 on the valley floor with a little early sunshine. Across the higher ski areas though readings are expected to stay close to or below freezing with snow developing around midday. I try not to get too optimistic in these type of setups since the moisture and initial storm to the north appear disorganized and wind isn't favorable. In spite of that, we could score 2-4 inches with much of it falling right near the end of the ski day Saturday. The warmer valley floor is more likely to see 1-2 inches of wet snow and there are models out there predicting a little rain at low elevations Saturday night as precipitation lightens up. Temperatures Sunday morning will fall back into the teens with arctic air building across the region. The story however relates to an area of low pressure expected to strengthen along the east coast Sunday. The expected track of this storm, east of Cape Cod, does not put any part of northern Vermont in the heaviest snow but their remains a rather broad range of model scenarios that do include a decent period of snowfall late Sunday. The Canadian model has the storm tracking the furthest west and indicates a foot or more of snow for MLK Monday. The consensus and my expectation, is for a period of light snow and 1-4 inch accumulation for will be a cold and blustery Monday with temperatures near zero for much of the day. Interestingly, the formation of the storm should help keep the winds lower for Sunday but could then help make them worse as the storm continues to strengthen downstream of us Monday. The situation with the snow needs to be watched as models have a notoriously difficult time with a good polar jet present. I wouldn't totally dismiss the Canadian model scenario or one that would have us receiving very little snow Sunday night. 

The arctic air blast expected to peak in the Monday-Wednesday period is likely to be the strongest for eastern North America collectively though we may see a stronger one more focused on us later in the season. It appears shallow and stable enough to cut down on potential new snowfall through January 23rd and even bring the sun out for a few decent stretches in this same time frame. More clouds and some warm advection snowfall will then become likely later in the week. There have been indications of a more organized storm system taking a run up the coast at us later in the week, but as of late Friday, that action appears suppressed to the south. 

Over the past few days, I've seen a wide range of scenarios painted for the last week of January and some of those have included mixed precipitation, above freezing temperatures and even some rainfall. I would certainly be inclined to believe the more general idea that cold and more unsettled weather will shift its focus to the western U.S. in this period since ensembles are clearly indicating a loss in PNA support. It's been a very cold month so far across the southern U.S. and those folks will certainly get a reprieve by the 26th or 27th. Across New England, their appears to be enough evidence, at least to me, that we stay cold and this is anchored by the continued support of a tame jet stream in the Pacific. Even if we get some slight tightening or a neutralization in the EPO, it won't be enough to scour the cold out of southern Canada and parts of New England. Additionally, this places us in the line of fire for storms and my guess is we get some sort of impact from one between the 27th and 31st of the month. A dry January means different things to different people and if you have a goal based on the traditional definition then you more than half way there. The no-rain definition is the one I am thinking about and the dream, for now, is still alive in that regard.