Bluebird Sunday will be followed by several days of clouds and some wet snow

Oh my goodness, we've got some winter weather coming our way. It appears to be the early spring version of winter with some wet snow and marginal temperatures but I am sincerely hoping for some good wintry scenery. One thing is for certain, enjoy the Sunday sunshine because the 7 days that follow look very cloudy. That Sunday sunshine will be accompanied by maximum temperatures that struggle to make it above the freezing mark, but light winds will help make it a relatively comfortable day.

Clouds advance into the region early Monday and some snow will be falling by mid-afternoon. The storm responsible is a weak area of low pressure that will use the gradient from the exiting arctic high pressure center to strengthen and expand the area of precipitation.  The storm is expected to remain south of Long Island which means the heaviest precipitation is likely to stay south of northern Vermont. That said, models have suggested that this storm will have an inverted-like surface structure which should allow the precipitation shield to extend farther north than it might otherwise. How extensive this area of snowfall is remains up for debate but 2-5 inches of wet snow Monday evening is my best guess. Like many storms in late March, we should see some elevation sensitivity that will impact both amounts and snow consistency.

The Monday snowfall, whatever we get, will be followed rather quickly by a more formidable storm Wednesday. It was this feature that stood out to me when looking at the weather maps last week and it continues to do so as of Saturday (3/21). That said, the MRV will be working with a real limited supply of cold air while also dealing with the fact that this storm, like its predecessor, will be tracking south of Long Island. It's not a shut out track but the conundrum speaks for itself. If the storm shifts northward it would threaten to dislodge the minimal amount of cold in place but the current track might prevent us from receiving the heaviest precipitation. This is still worth watching though. A strong enough and a good enough track should at least produce in the mountains even if valley locations get stuck with a cold rain.

It looks like a real battle thereafter as to whether milder or colder weather end up prevailing over the state of Vermont through the last weekend of March.  Another weaker weather system is likely to impact the region Friday which will keep much of the state cloudy through the end of the week. This late Thursday/early Friday weather feature appears to be a warmer one though the data remains a little inconclusive. Colder high pressure might then successfully build across the region for Saturday providing the region with some sunshine but that also will be short lived (it at all) as another storm promises to spread clouds and precipitation into the region either late that day or on Sunday.

Ensembles are painting somewhat different pictures in the period between March 30 and April 5. The European ensembles suggest what could prove to be an excellent stretch of weather with more sunshine and potentially spring-like temperatures. The American Ensembles show a stormier somewhat colder scenario. Given that the colder weather is expected to reposition over Alaska again and given how much of this winter has played out, one would have to favor the milder outlook from a betting odds standpoint.

I very much appreciate all the kind words from everyone. Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy.