Weather continues to happen so lets talk about it some

Our ski season came to a crashing halt this past weekend as we adjust to a new world. But at least in this new world, we still have weather and so I can blog about that a few more times before calling it a season. We can expect a bit of everything over the next few days including some very mild and some very cold weather. The large ridge positioned over the Gulf of Alaska will proceed, as expected, to migrate northwestward and will allow arctic cold to grip much of  western Canada into early April. Northern Vermont is a long way form western Canada but the pattern will open the door slightly for a bit of cold and possibly a bit of snow to go with that cold in the coming week.

There's a rather significant storm that will organize across the southern Rockies by early Thursday and a wave of low pressure way out ahead of that storm will spread some rain into southern New England early in the day. The precipitation will mostly steer clear of Vermont but a dusting of snow or mixed precipitation is likely before 10 am. It will remain cloudy and cool the rest of Thursday with temperatures hovering near 40, but a massive push of warmth is coming for Friday. The surge of mild weather, a full blown "El Torchy" that will include gusty southwest winds, 60-plus temperatures, and intervals of clouds and sun. Also included in the Friday package of weather is a bit of rain. Showers mostly, but even a thunderstorm is possible in what appears to be a early season convective set up.

The potential thunderstorms are associated with this aforementioned Rocky Mountain originating storm that will ultimately pass well to our north Friday night. A very sharp, very strong cold front will then bring temperatures well below freezing across the Vermont high country and they will stay there for much of the weekend. Saturday's cold will be accompanied by flurries and some gusty northwest winds. Winds Sunday will be calmer but readings could be down in the single numbers into the morning before rebounding to about 30 degrees.

The cold will moderate after Sunday but we might struggle see outright spring-like temps for a bit. I mean without lift service we might as well turn the EPO negative finally !!!

EPO Analysis / Forecast

But as I mentioned, it will actually be western Canada experiencing the full impact of this more wintry pattern. Vermont will be colder but will likely simply see temperatures closer to normal. A potentially strong weather system will impact parts of the east coast Wednesday. This storm does have the capability of bringing wet snow to Vermont and possibly a significant amount. I will certainly keep an eye on that system which will then be followed more relatively seasonable March weather.

If its the milder weather you're actually hoping for given our present state of circumstances we might get a bit more of that as we get to the last full weekend of March or in early April. Our little respite from the positive EPO will last about a week but is expected to resume its 2020 state of remaining mostly positive which means a fast flowing west to east Pacific jet stream. The Arctic Oscillation meanwhile just keep spewing out positive numbers. This is more or less the reverse of the 2009-10 winter which saw a persistently negative AO which set the stage for the Mid-Atlantic snowmageddon.

The world in which we lived has obviously taken a very dark turn over the past few weeks as the threat of this virus has gotten very real. Plenty of folks, with more expertise, can give you all the advice about how you should act and what you should or shouldn't do. All I can stress is that I love being part of this Mad River Glen skiing community and I have faith we will use every bit of mental toughness to get through this. The world might look different at the other end and certain things might never be the same but we will persist. Our values as a community will most definitely endure and transcend all of this. Be generous, respectful and helpful toward one another but we do that anyway so keep doing it !