Sunday, March 20, 2022

Some cold weather and snow is likely to make a brief return to northern Vermont in a week, but only after another rain event late Wed/Thur

Hope everyone is enjoying or has enjoyed the last "offiical" day at MRG. I was certainly hoping to be able to report on a potential storm late this week, but that is not to be unfortunately. The pattern does appear quite capable of delivering a decent round of late March cold beginning around March 27th. A day late and a dollar short for the storm late this week but it would not be impossible to spin something up about a week from now.

 Temperatures have been running even warmer than my warm expectations the last several days but we still can expect a return to sub-freezing mountain weather both Sunday and Monday night (3/20-21). Snow showers appear likely Sunday night into early Monday but northwest flow at jet stream level should allow cloudiness to decrease as the day progresses leading to a chilly but clear Monday night and a bluebird type of Tuesday with just scattered fair weather clouds. We can probably squeeze another dry day out of Wednesday with temps starting near 20 and rising into the 40's. My disappointment relates to the storm late this week. I had hoped that a storm would bring 1-2 feet of powder to Colorado for my trip out there and then proceed to somehow do the same for Vermont and neither appears to be the case unless you are in the San Juan Mountains perhaps. This is another example of a strong system in the plains just getting too wound up too early and the cold weather we were hoping to infuse into this system getting delayed. It is thus a rainy outlook for us beginning Wednesday night and persisting into at least part of Thursday. 

Friday and Saturday appear drier and cooler but not cold with temperatures likely to remain above freezing except at the high summits. The cold weather arrives Sunday and with it comes a slight chance that a storm can quickly intensify along the New England coast. Models have been inconsistent on this idea the last few days but the Euro Ensemble showed the best signal yet this morning for a low pressure center bombing over the maritimes. We will need more than just a storm in the martimes for deep snow but we will have at least a few days of cold weather persisting into early next week (3/28 -29) before temperatures are indicated to moderate.  There is a deep enough trough associated with this cold air to allow for a healthy layer of low level instability and lots of snow showers even if a storm doesn't materialize. This is often the case in spring during cold weather outbreaks and I would be surprised if we don't see some accumulating snow during this period across the high country as a result

Even with operations suspended at MRG. I'll do a few more updates and then a season wrap-up.





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