Dry weather, a short-lived blast of bitterly cold air and some light snowfall chances until pattern takes an ugly turn on February 8

Following 4 inches of fluffy snow, sunshine emerged in a big and beautiful way Tuesday afternoon. January has not been an easy month for winter weather and snow in northern New England, but we managed a decent finish and Tuesday was a terrific way to end it. The clear skies Tuesday night and fresh snow cover will allow temperatures to drop below zero, something we didn't do at all in January amazingly but most of us will break that streak on the first day of February. Depending on where you are (west or east), Tuesday or Wednesday all marks the first 5:00 pm sunset of the year. I had thought there was a chance it might be the last sub 5:00 pm sunset ever, though it appears the elimination of EST got caught in a legislative snarl and put on hold for the time being. Personally, I am a bit ambivalent on the whole thing. Though I don't particularly enjoy when it gets dark so early, the early winter sunsets have become rather engrained in New England tradition and it makes the brighter days of February and March something to look forward to. I might add that no matter how much we fail to act regarding climate priorities, climate change will never impact early winter sunsets ! 

The drier weather that begin during the second half of Tuesday will continue through a roller coaster temperature regime over the next few days. We can expect some sunshine to return for Wednesday with temperatures climbing to about 20 followed by more clouds and more wind for Thursday along with temperatures that climb to 30. A massive arctic front will be approaching Thursday evening and a clipper system associated with this surge in frigid temperatures is expected to bring a period of snow to northern Vermont Thursday night. This however, is a brutally cold but very stable frontal assault of arctic air and I am expecting sunshine to return for Friday to go along with strong winds and dangerous wind chills. The National Weather Service in Burlington posted a wind chill forecast applicable for early Saturday but I think this map would be valid most of Friday evening into early Saturday. 

Actual temperatures will start Friday below zero and stay below zero all day, perhaps as low as -10 to -20 at the summits. By Friday morning, readings everywhere will be close to -20 so although this will most assuredly not be a cold winter, this is quite assuredly a very cold outbreak of air for northern New England. Temperatures are expected to recover some during the day Saturday with the help of an almost full day of sunshine. Readings might make it above zero at the base as winds gradually abate. Clouds are expected to return on Sunday and winds should be gusty out of the southwest allowing readings to climb from near zero F, all the way back toward the freezing mark. A clipper system, again, well to our north, is responsible for the clouds, but the limited moisture might be too limited to support any snowfall. We have a better chance for some new snow on Monday as arctic air tries to give us a short encore performance opening up an opportunity for terrain enhanced snowfall even though a storm for early next week does not appear like it will materialize. 

So now off to the not so great news. The weather pattern pretty clearly is poised to take a turn for the worse. We can keep our recent stretch of winter going through Tuesday, February 7th, but model data has moved aggressively toward a wind-driven torch on Wednesday of next week (Feb 8). I would have told you this was a 50/50 outcome this past weekend or even on Monday, but a significant temperature spike of 50-degrees appears more likely as of this update. Fundamentally speaking, its becoming tougher to argue for anything else with the jet stream regime in the Pacific beginning to resemble the "evil empire" look I've come to despise while every other teleconnection index (AO, PNA, NAO) all turn mildly to moderately unfavorable. The spike in temperatures next week appears temporary with closer to normal temperatures returning for late in the week, but the pattern would support additional spikes in temperatures through Valentines Day.  Embedded within this ugly overall trend were some hints of a potential snowfall for the weekend of February 11th and 12th, but temperatures never appear below normal and arctic air appears farther north in Canada than it did when I last updated. This would set up the 2nd full week of February as again being pretty mild with the risk of another substantial temperature spike.

Pattern to finally allow for a short-lived blast of bitterly cold temperatures this Friday into Saturday

A decent area of snow is expected to cover much of southern Quebec and some of this will impact extreme northern Vermont such as Jay Peak on Sunday. Farther south and over the MRV, this event will be mostly a dud with the best frontogenetics remaining to our north. It will turn out warmer than some earlier projections as a lot of northern Vermont will remain on the wrong side of the current clashing temperature regime. It's still cold enough to snow across the high country on Sunday and a sloppy inch or two remains a likely outcome, but the valley floor could actually see some light rainfall out of all this as the day progresses and temperatures are likely to range from the low 30's high up on the mountain to 40 on the valley floor.

Arctic air is expected to seep into northern New England on Monday putting us back on the right side of the temperature clash for the rest of the upcoming week. Additionally, precipitation will become snow and fall sporadically Sunday night into Monday and a period of steadier snow later Monday appears capable of depositing a few inches of snow, mostly for the Tuesday ski day. There are additional waves of energy in this fast flowing jet stream late next week but models have moved to shift the action southward leaving much of Vermont with a drier outlook even though smaller impulses in the now present polar jet stream appear capable of bringing snow showers back to the high country at least once. It will be worth watching how models handle the weather system late Wednesday into Thursday and whether that could blossom into something significant. As of Saturday evening however, data has been moving in the opposite direction and snow late on Monday January 30th may turn out to be the most we see during the upcoming week. 

The outlook does appear colder in the big picture and a big reason for this stems from the evolving outlook Friday into Saturday, February 3rd and 4th. Looks like New England is finally going to get a frontal assault of arctic air, unmodified by the Great Lakes as was the case with the cold outbreak around Christmas. The jet stream impulse responsible for delivering the cold could also deliver a little snowfall. There is no doubt we will be creating some incredible thermals off Lake Champlain once this bitterly cold airmass hits the unfrozen body of water, but in spite of favorable flow, these airmasses tend to be extremely stable in nature and thus greatly reducing the convective snowfall opportunities. The cold will be incoming on Friday and be accompanied by dangerous windchills for a time, especially at the summit areas. I would not be surprised to see actual temps drop to -20 Saturday morning in a few spots though there remains a little uncertainty as to how much of the core of this cold can focus on Vermont or whether the most intense area can get deflected. We should see wind chill temperatures abate on Saturday, but much of the day might be spent below zero on the mountain. Temperatures are expected to quickly modify for Sunday into Monday and by that time, we are looking at our next chance for a potential weather system the the jet stream is expected to remain quite strong and appears to be limiting the opportunity for storms to strengthen along the east coast. 

Beyond Monday, arctic air is expected to retreat some and the pattern is expected to realign focusing storminess and the cold out over the Rocky Mountains. Unlike this past Christmas however, arctic air is expected to remain present over much of eastern Canada and not vanish from the North American continent as it did before the New Year. The pattern does appear to favor another outbreak of mild weather, especially below 40 N latitude and there appears to be a risk of an inland runner around the time of February 8th or 9th, but northern New England will have the ability to avoid a disastrous thaw given the presence of a colder regime in Canada. Ironically, the +NAO which is not helpful for east coast storminess and snowfall can help make a potentially dangerous jet stream flatter and hopefully Vermont colder. Needless to say temperatures have been mild across New England and all of the east coast this January and I feel confident saying that February will turn out substantially colder than February in northern New England. I would not say that confidently further south, below the 40 N aforementioned latitude.

Outlook continues to look wintry through February 6th with chances for additional snowfall dotting the forecast picture throughout that time frame

Great coverage on the hill today, but we had to earn it the hard way. It was a pretty disheartening drive up Rte 17 this morning watching the temperature rise from 30 in the valley to 38 at the base and realize part of the inversion had mixed out allowing for some of that lower mountain slop. The upper mountain skied beautifully all day and was made even better by a healthy dose of back-end upslope snow showers that presided over the northern Green Mountains through much of the day. The above freezing temperatures we experienced this morning might not return again for an extended 10-12 day stretch of time. I have some concerns about the longer range outlook, but the outlook through about February 6th appears generally cold and wintry with a few chances for additional snows and a chance for one short-lived surge of extreme cold though the models have failed to provide any certainty about the latter.

The upcoming weekend doesn't look especially sunny but we can expect some breaks in the overcast for Friday, a seasonable winter day with tolerable winds and temperatures starting in the teens and rising into the 20's. We are a few weeks away from the next full moon, but we should get a starlit night Friday night before clouds return for Saturday along with some light snow. The clipper system is passing way too far north to cause snow of any significance but we could see an inch or so while valley locations warm from the low teens all the way past the freezing mark (mountain should remain below freezing). Models continue to indicate clouds and a decent period of snow during the ski day Sunday. I am a bit worried the best frontogenetics with this overrunning type snowfall are north of us but lets call a 3-5 inch snow possible and at least a 1-3 inch snow likely as of the time of this update. 

This classic La Nina set up will produce the big temperature clash next week with balmy conditions in the southeast United States while cold grips the upper midwest. With the polar jet having returned, more than one waves are indicated to have the potential to evolve into precipitation and snowfall producers for New England though models are having difficulty discerning which of these to key in on. Ensemble data, usually the most reliable source of data in these uncertain environments, is showing the best shot at snow coming Tuesday night into Wednesday. More snowfall is certainly possible though as a larger chunk of arctic air approaches us on Friday. I should point out that a massive buildup of bitterly cold arctic air is expected to build up across much of southeast Canada by the end of the week. We are one good potent disturbance away from receiving at least a chunk of this bitterly cold air sometime between late Thursday, February 2nd and Sunday February 5th. A few of the many runs of the various medium range operational models are bringing a surge of this bitterly cold air into northern New England in this time frame while other indications suggest just a glancing blow. The bitterly cold air, if it hits, won't last more than a few days and some warm advection snowfall is likely as the cold weather abates toward the beginning of the first full week of February. 

This brings us to the undesirable portion of the update. The Pacific jet stream continues to be a problem in this very negative PDO winter and the pattern is indicated to realign itself back toward one favoring storminess in the west and milder conditions in the east. There are some material differences between this pattern and the one producing the atmospheric river of storminess in California and the big retreat of arctic cold in North America earlier this month. In fact, this pattern is nothing like that but there is a clear signal that milder temperatures will strengthen over a large section of the eastern United States while arctic cold remains present southern Canada. The latter feature will hopefully become a critical ally and keep northern Vermont wintry even if mild weather returns to southern New England and points south. It seems like wishful thinking in a winter like this but it has happened many times here especially in February (most recently last year on February 4).

8-14 inches of snow and minimal sleet by late Thursday with relatively forecast picture in place through Feburary 5

Though it's a glancing blow and a weakened airmass, the first real chunk of arctic air is making a charge at Vermont. It's an important airmass and one that that is impacting northern New England only and will ensure a colder storm late Wednesday into Thursday while we get our snow. Snow showers capable of producing a small accumulation can be expected across the high country Tuesday but our eyes are fixed to the approaching storm and its potential snowfall. 

First I want to provide the friendly reminder that I forecast weather where we ski while other very talented weather prognosticators are providing the intel where most of us live. There is a big difference when discussing weather and especially snowfall amounts. Both Mad River Glen and Sugarbush average twice as much as snow as the valley floor in an average winter and almost 3 times as much as the Champlain Valley. The forecasts found in this blog are both foolish and useless in many of the places we call home even though occasionally I will make mention of these specific distinctions. Regarding our upcoming storm, everyone in northern Vermont will see accumulating snowfall but the high country is certainly the spot where the most will fall. Snow will begin within an hour or two of 3 pm Wednesday and our storm total is highly contingent on our ability to front-end thump. Not many places in the world can front-end thump quite like New England and this refers to overrunning type snow that falls when antecedent cold is enveloped by moisture. This said, I've honestly disappointed that our higher resolution short term models are not front-end thumping harder. I mean after all, this is our specialty. Sure, data is indicating a nice 5-8 inches Wednesday evening, but I was hoping to see indications that deep moisture will get pile driven northward into northern Vermont and produce 2-3 inch an hour snowfall rates for a time and a quick foot of snow. The American model continues to show signs of this, but as we get closer to the storm, it is wise to begin weighting the higher resolution data a little more and medium range model data a little less. So, in an effort to be informative I am providing the strict interpretation of the last round of model data while also pointing out that it continues to look like a favorable setup for heavier snowfall, so long as we get the robust development of a new area of low pressure which will begin to establish itself over eastern Pennsylvania Wednesday evening and move toward eastern Maine Thursday. A several hour long dry slot and a brief change to sleet continues to be possible very early Thursday though the layer of warmth over MRG is very minimal (within 1-2 degrees of freezing if that) and the high country is quite capable of enduring that layer without a changeover at all. Back end snow on Thursday afternoon is then expected to provide a fluffier finish to the storm though with the storm rapidly exiting to the unblocked northeast, our window for this is small. Factoring in all of these different variables yields a 8-14 inch forecast for this storm as of Tuesday afternoon with 6-8 falling prior to the ski day Thursday and 2 to as much 6 inches falling beginning late morning Thursday and Thursday evening. Expect to see a break in the precipitation around daybreak Thursday with any precipitation falling as some light sleet or possibly freezing drizzle though I don't think this lasts long enough to be a major issue. 

We are once again grazed with arctic air on Friday in the wake of our storm with temperatures generally in the teens atop our fresh snowcover on Friday though the blustery conditions that will be with us Thursday night should abate. The first Alberta Clipper since I don't know when is then expected to spread clouds and some very light snow into the region on Saturday. This system is simply too far north to provide snowfall of any significance but its passage can bring just enough moisture for an inch or two of accumulation. 

The pattern just has a classic cold La Nina look to it with arctic air dominating much of southern Canada along with portions of the high plains and west but struggling to make in-roads over the mid-atlantic and southeastern United States. Weather systems will progress along the area of this clashing temperature regime and the first of these systems could bring some moisture, falling as snow, to the region on Sunday. An accumulation is certainly possible here on the order of a few inches but a large snowfall is unlikely as any such storm appears both disorganized and fast moving. Arctic air will fight to establish a presence over Vermont during the last two days of January before another potentially more organized storm brings more potential for winter weather. A likely outcome here is snow but one should never underestimate the power of the dark side of La Nina which in this case would be a warm intrusion of air stemming from a storm that decides to track as an inland runner or lake cutter, whatever your favorite terminology might be. 

The period between February 2-5 are setup for some of the coldest weather in this very mild winter season so far. Expect to see some sub-zero readings in this time frame and hopefully we get a system embedded within those days to provide us with some additional snowfall. After about February 6th the southeast ridge appears stronger and more capable of throwing an inland runner at us later in the first full week of February. Some arctic air is indicated to remain present across southern Canada which will be a much needed ally if such an evolution takes place.

Sunday night storm becoming a tough pitch to hit hard, but potential results late Wednesday night into Thursday continue to look promising

The 2nd storm in our trilogy was just beginning to reestablish itself along the Carolina/Virginia coastline Sunday afternoon. Ultimately this low pressure area will become the primary storm while continuing to both intensify and move very quickly off to the northeast. It's not a bad looking storm actually and quite capable of delivering a lot of snowfall to the interior northeast if it had more time to mature before exiting stage right. As the coastal low really starts to crank Sunday night into early Monday it will serve to consolidate much of the precipitation and produce a very narrow corridor of heavy snowfall; which, according to model data falls over portions of the Berkshires, southern Vermont and the Monadnock region of New Hampshire. The MRV isn't totally left out in the cold here and should procure a few inches through midday Monday but if the storm follows the latest data we would be left out of the heavy snow. It's close enough and tight enough that a small northward shift could change the outcome because even 20 miles on Rt 100 could make all the difference. It's just tough to get overly bullish on these types of systems if they track southeast of the Cape,  even just a little bit. With that said, my thinking is 3-6 inches with a chance for a bit more if that magical northward shift were to happen.

Tracking southeast of Cape Cod is certainly not the issue with Wednesday/Thursday event. A storm that continues to appear the most potent of the three and also the coldest of the three even though this area of low pressure is expected to come right at us or just south of us. The weather is not expected to be especially cold out ahead of this storm Tuesday; in fact, we have to issue the "el torchy" advisory since strong south to southwest winds are expected to warm temperatures up to as high as 40 degrees Tuesday afternoon even as clouds and snow showers begin to develop from north to south along the spine of the Green Mountains. As I mentioned Friday, this is an important push of cold air that will slide in just in front of the approaching storm laying the ground work for what appears to be a very nice setup for heavy snow on Wednesday. Model data continues to push the idea of a primary low pressure center moving northeast over Toledo or southern Michigan and then transferring part of or all of its energy toward a developing coastal area of low pressure. I would like to see a nice clean transfer because if we can't keep the primary low pressure area south of us, we risk both a change to sleet and a dry slot. Even with all that, I think the outcome looks pretty darn good with a hefty front end thump of powdery snow Wednesday afternoon and evening, a possible change to some sleet very early Thursday (it's close according to several models) and then some additional terrain enhance snow Thursday. Hopefully we can keep the event all snow but it should be a very positive outcome for the northern mountains regardless with 10 or more inches my initial guess. 

We have some colder weather arriving for Friday though the core of some pretty intense arctic cold is expected to mostly miss New England at least initially. A clipper system (yes they still do exist) will try and bring some of that cold eastward for Sunday and Monday but the clipper appears pretty far north to promise any big additional snowfall. Once this colder La Nina regime settles in though, we are again staged for some intriguing results. We just need to stay on the cold side of what should be an intense clash between mild air over the southeast U.S. and arctic cold to our north. Early indications would suggest this is very attainable leaving us with really good opportunities for more snow as we move toward and into early February. It will be very nice to have some arctic air on our north flank again finally.

Episode 1 reaching a conclusion but two parts remain in this long anticipated snowfall trilogy

 We are approaching the conclusion to episode 1 of what we hope is a 3 part winter storm series. This first storm is certainly nothing spectacular, but this is the event marking winter's return since it continues to appear like a really good stretch of conditions is upon us. We still have particulars to sort through regarding the next two systems but both appear on the table and northern Vermont continues to appear like a favorable location for good results. 

Snow Friday afternoon and evening will allow this event to meet at least the low end of our expectations and I am feeling better about the notion an area of high pressure will be enough to gradually eliminate much of our cloudiness on Saturday. After a blustery start, it will turn into a very nice late January day with near 30 degree temperatures near the MRG base and gradually decreasing winds. In other words, I expect to see those sun deck chairs occupied tomorrow afternoon beers in hand ! We might also be greeted with a bit of sunshine on Sunday, but clouds will quickly overspread northern Vermont as episode 2 in our 3 part series approaches. Sunday will be another comfortable day with teens in the morning and near 30 degree temperatures again expected in the afternoon. 

As of this update, models are approaching a consensus with episode or storm number 2. It's a nice looking but quick moving system that will be intensifying as it speeds along a projected course that would take it over southeast New England. The track of this storm has shifted marginally eastward but not enough to take much of northern Vermont out of what appears to be a narrow zone of decent snowfall. This snowfall should again (much like the storm Thursday evening) begin within an hour or two of 6-7 pm  and fall at a rather steady rate throughout the overnight. So long as we keep the track of this strengthening area of low pressure close to Cape Cod Monday morning, a few hours of heavy snow right around daybreak should bring yet another round of 8-16 to the high country. In this case most of the snow will fall before the ski day Monday with snowfall tapering to flurries by mid-morning. Much like the snow this past Thursday night and Friday, the snow will be a bit damp in the valley locations but drier above 2000 feet where temperatures generally hover in the middle 20's. Limited sunshine later Monday will allow those valley locations to inch above the freezing mark but I expect readings to remain sub-freezing on our mountains not only Monday but much of next week. 

The break in the hard hitting action continues into Tuesday though there is a jet stream disturbance capable of bringing us clouds and snow flurries late in the day. This feature will serve as some importance as it will bring a limited but very critical supply of colder, drier Canadian air to the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Temperatures could fall to 10 degrees early Wednesday and though readings will warm somewhat throughout the day, our midweek storm appears to be a colder one even though the expected track of the storm is farther north. The third and last in this 3 part series continues to appear like the most potent system and for a big MRV result, we need a nice clean low pressure transfer from the southern Great Lakes region to the Atlantic coast.Though the polar jet does appear to be advancing in our direction during the middle part of next week, there does not appear to be a back end PJ kicker capable of over-amplifying the initial midwest low pressure center and preventing the aforementioned coastal transfer. That being said, I remain bullish on our potential results. A recent run of the European model did track the storm over northern New England but there continues to be a nice established consensus in the ensemble data for an excellent track and snowfall for northern Vermont. Again, snow from this would arrive during the day Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night and Thursday. This event is still 5 days away and thus it is important to factor some uncertainty as expectations inherently evolve. 

Friday and into the last full weekend in January continue to show up as potentially arctic, really the first such weekend of 2023 though the overall pattern continues to resemble a classic chilly La Nina set up. This means cold air encompasses much of southern Canada, the upper midwest, and portions of the northern  Rocky Mountains while maintaining a more tenuous grasp on New England in late January and early February. We can expect more action in this setup and more snow but the inland runner is always a risk in any La Nina year and is certainly a possibility in this upcoming weather pattern even with the colder weather.

MRG will make a bid for the trifecta over the next week with snow locked in for Thursday night/Friday and additional chances for signficant snow Monday the 23rd and later next week !

 This will easily go down as the best blog update of 2023. It has been a tough slog across all areas of the northeast since just after the Christmas holiday but things are about to change in a big way. Both life and weather come at you fast in a Vermont winter and it is amazing to think that the 1-3 inches of crust currently covering many of our mountains might, within a week, finally see some deep snow. We've got a Thursday night / Friday snow locked in to the forecast picture but this will be quickly followed by two very potent looking weather systems with one set to impact us Sunday night into Monday and another during the middle of next week. 

 The snow Thursday night into Friday is a very ordinary winter weather event by Vermont standards but especially needed given current snow conditions. Snow will arrive abruptly between 9 pm Thursday to midnight Friday with a rapid 3-5 inch accumulation across the high country during the overnight hours. By daybreak on Friday, the snow will become light but remain persistent, especially above 1,500 feet and this allows the early call of 8-16 inches (4-6 at the start of the ski day) to remain on target for a total accumulation by Friday evening. Temperature profiles actually look a little colder with readings projected to remain in the mid 20's both Thursday night and Friday allowing much of the snow to stay on the dry side. Thursday night's snow will be a little denser but much of Friday's snow appears fluffier since it falls as a result of a more favorable upper air environment combined with oragraphic enhancement. This will not be an especially accurate forecast for the Champlain Valley which appears to be in line for both less snow and wetter snow. The southern Vermont snowfall picture does appear a little better with rain more confined to Massachusetts and Connecticut during this event. Wind direction will be a little problematic for the Single Chair Thursday night into early Friday but winds will abate and become more northeasterly during the day which is considerably gentler on that lift though I am not sure if they plan to open it. 

Temperatures will remain above average both through this upcoming first storm and the weekend. Saturday's weather conditions can be described as blustery with clouds and snow flurries along with a few break of sunshine. Sunday should feature less wind and perhaps a period of sunshine in the morning before clouds from our next system flood the region as the day progresses. Readings should get into the 20's both days and only drop into the teens at night. Across valley locations, I think temperatures will exceed the freezing mark Sunday afternoon. 

I am just loving the evolving consensus for our next system set to bring what appears to be snowfall Sunday night into Monday (Jan23). This is a quick moving storm but one that will rapidly intensify as it interacts with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Coast. As of Wednesday afternoon, all 3 major medium range computer models suggest a storm track that would take this storm up through Connecticut toward the Maine coastline. This is just beautiful ! We don't have a jet stream blocking mechanism in place to inhibit a quick exit, but several hours of significant snowfall and a sizable accumulation are appearing more likely. We are still dealing with a situation where cold air is in short supply, but thankfully, this appears to be a problem for coastal locations and interior Vermont appears to be well situated though changes are still possible. 

The quickly exiting storm on Monday will allow weather conditions to improve rapidly Monday evening and perhaps we can squeeze several hours of sunshine out of Tuesday. Though the pattern will begin to allow arctic air to spill southward across the North American continent, it will remain away from New England through most of next week. This means daytime temperatures should continue to reach the 20's both during Monday's storm and Tuesday into Wednesday and readings should again exceed the freezing mark in valley locations. Meanwhile the third storm in the trifecta appears to be the most dynamic and will be organizing itself and gathering moisture in the Mississippi Delta region. Though this storm appears to be the strongest, there's also a risk that it amplifies too early and take a trajectory somewhere west of optimal. I am happy to report this is not the current trend but it certainly remains a possibility. The current would, at the very least, transfer much of the energy from this storm to the coast and would allow for a third hefty accumulation in the span of a week across northern Vermont. Arctic air does loom beyond this storm but I am hoping the polar jet stays out of this storm's way since it might act as a steroid and turn this promising situation into an inland runner. Right now the storm's impact appears to be next Wednesday January 25th into Thursday January 26th with the polar jet making an entrance into Friday. I would prefer to hold this timing in place given the choice. 

Arctic is of course a net benefit to us in the grand scheme of things and we are looking at a chilly last weekend of January, hopefully one with very deep snow. The pattern overall going into February resembles a more classic La Nina upper air look with an elongated ridge in the jet stream in the eastern Pacific keeping the storminess aimed at western Canada as opposed to California. This set up often prevents arctic air from unloading on the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. but New England and larger portions of both the central and Rocky Mountain west are regions certainly in play for more persistent colder temperatures. It should remain an exciting pattern into early February but a classic La Nina pattern can always manufacture an inland runner even in the best of situations.

Snow producing storm late Thursday into Friday marks the start of a much improved outlook for the end of Jan and early Feb

Mild air now encompasses a massive swath of North America as it has for much of the month. There are changes in sight with our temperature outlook but they remain down the road just a little bit. Most importantly for northern New England, is that the mild air will be tame on the scale of these things this week. Low lying areas around the MRV can expect several hours of above freezing temperatures (though not consecutive) between Tuesday afternoon and early Thursday, but those hours will just be within a few degrees of freezing as opposed to 10, 15 or 20 degrees from freezing. And then there's the best part of all this, the possibility for a significant snow on very late on Thursday into Friday. With cold air in such limited supply across eastern Canada, there is not a lot of room for error with the storm late this week but with each passing day, substantial snow looks like the most likely outcome. 

In the mean time, the MLK holiday features a unique looking storm which has managed to spread clouds back into Vermont and both snow and mixed precipitation across eastern New England (mainly Maine). This storm appears extra-tropical in nature which would be categorically similar to the "Perfect Storm" of October 1991, though not as strong. What this unusual system has been able to do is throw a lot of mild air into northern New England, but mainly just above the surface. Temperatures at the summit of Mt Washington are expected to climb and may actually exceed the freezing mark late on Tuesday. This is not entirely unprecedented but it is unusual without strong warm advection from the south. The clouds over the MRV are expected to be with us for a while and I don't want to understate that. If we don't see a few breaks in the overcast Wednesday or early Thursday (possible) we could be looking at another week of overcast conditions. We can also expect some very light mixed precipitation Tuesday night which will primarily become snow showers across our high country on Wednesday. The flow would favor best accumulations north of us and temperatures will be hovering close to or just below the freezing mark above 2000 feet and above the freezing mark below that, but 1-2 inches in those elevated locations I just mentioned is still likely. 

We will be precipitation-free early Thursday but unless we can squeeze some very early sunshine out of this day, clouds from the next system will envelop us as temperatures continue to hover in the lower or middle 30's. The approaching storm will be approaching the southern Great Lakes on Thursday in a very ominous way, but will make a tidy transition to the Jersey coast on Thursday evening and will be safely south of the Cape early Friday. As this is happening, northern Vermont will be entraining just enough dry air from Canada to keep our critical layers of the lower troposphere below freezing, at least that is the thinking right now. So, any mixed precipitation Thursday evening will become snow and accumulate at a rather decent one to occasionally two inch an hour rate before the ski day Friday. During the ski day Friday the snow will become lighter and eventually taper flurries by late in the day. It is a storm more typical of later in the season, but I'll take them any way I can get them. Unless we get a late curve ball, 8-16 much needed inches is my current target. 

Our late week snow producing storm is the first of what appears to be a very active setup as the pattern transitions from the one producing the "atmospheric river" over California, to one which looks very much like a traditional La Nina. By late in the month, I think it will be southern Canada that experiences the most dramatic change with much colder air encompassing a region that has been excessively mild for several weeks. The Pacific jet stream in a typical La Nina set up is still irritatingly strong and it will be in our evolving pattern but aimed farther north and taking its energy on the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Rockies as opposed to California. This storminess will continue to impact interior New England after Friday with a subsequent weather system taking aim at us in the late Sunday January 22nd to Monday January 23rd time frame and yet another in the middle part of the ensuing week. Each of these storms could result in additional snow or snow/mixed precipitation or mixed precipitation with a little rain. During this time frame, a mildly negative AO combined with the ridging over Alaska will allow arctic to slowly progress southward and get involved in our day to day weather. It won't happen right away but as we move toward the later part of next week into the last full weekend of January, New England could finally see some below normal January cold of significance.

The next few weeks won't lack for excitement and there should be plenty to discuss and I expect we see our coldest weather of the winter season sometime between January 28th and Valentines Day. Even a cold La Nina set up can be rough for more southern latitude winter weather lovers however so not everyone will benefit. Colder airmasses will be in a constant battle with mild air across the southeast which will keep the ferocity of winter in check below 40 N latitude. At our latitude, we are certainly a good candidate for a big snow event over the next few weeks but are also at risk that an early amplifier that turns inland runner.

A crustier short term outlook, but a better longer term one

Given the weather pattern and specifically the limited cold air over southeastern Canada, we managed to do OK on a storm that tracked right over us. Lingering moisture and favorable flow out of the northwest would, in many cases, yield some significant snowfall over the Vermont high country late on Friday but the formation and strengthening of a second area of low pressure off the Carolina coastline is going to steal our thunder (in this case, upward motion and dynamics). This low pressure center is expected to track closer to Cape Cod than was predicted a few days ago and spread snow and some rain over southeastern New England. If your reaction to all this resembles "man this seems to happen a lot lately", then I don't think you are wrong. The relative warmth of the Atlantic (just off the NE coastline) has in my opinion, robbed interior sections of moisture by fueling storms in that vicinity and weakening potential snow situations in our region. This is a hypothesis I might point out and I don't want to masquerade as someone who has done academic research on the subject when I have not. I am also not resigned to thinking this is a permanent trend. Local phenomena such as relative areas of warm and cold SST conditions tend to be fluid  and change over time. 

As the storm offshore produces clouds and the aforementioned precipitation for eastern New England, it is still expected to eventually suck those clouds out of most of Vermont and yield the bluebird days I promised you all a few days ago, Sunday and Monday. At least I hope ! The closer proximity of the storm will produce more wind than I had anticipated a few days ago. Saturday is expected to feature clouds and snow flurries along with that wind and the blustery conditions should unfortunately be with us through MLK Monday. Sunshine should return for Sunday and my hope is this continues through the holiday but the offshore storm is close enough that it could muck up my expectations 

After MLK day the weather situation continues to trend in a less bad direction. El Torchy should mostly stay south of Vermont and at no point does their appear to be any strong enough advection to produce excessive temperatures. A weakening weather system is expected to again envelop us in cloudiness on Tuesday and temperatures will climb above the freezing mark but stay in the 30's. When precipitation from this feature arrives, likely later in the day or at night, it should fall as some light rain in most places but it may become some wet snow across the high country Tuesday night. As I've mentioned, one of this pattern's preeminent lowlights is the lack of cold across southern Canada and though we will manage to position ourselves out of the torch, the arctic chill is simply way too far north over the continent to have any impact on us. Even with this said, a stronger storm system late next week could produce some winter weather given an optimal track and models have simulated such an outcome a few times over the past several days. At least we have shot and it gives me a chance to requote a line from the movie Braveheart. "You can take our powder, but you will never take our late January crust !!". 

What about the pattern change ? It's still there around the weekend of January 21st and 22nd. From a hemispheric perspective, conditions appear favorable for some southward transport of arctic cold but they don't appear overwhelming. I am convinced however, that the pattern will initially become stormy, perhaps in a very good way for us and eventually turn much colder across the eastern third thirds of Canada by January 24th-26th. This sets up New England, especially interior sections for a cold and wintry finish to what has been a dismal month. Still, there are some lingering issues with the Pacific that might be a roadblock for cold weather in areas south of us or present problems for us more directly relating to a storm track. It looks like a more traditional La Nina cold weather setup in a year which has, in my opinion, defied some of those conventional expectations. 

Dust on some crust and some bluebird days for the MLK holiday with a pattern change for late January

We got another holiday coming in hot and could use a weather pattern that isn't as hot or more accurately mild. As I've enjoyed pointing out, we've been more fortunate with MLK weekend than we have for the Christmas holiday and I have thus coined the term MLK magic when discussing weather situations. And we need some serious magic with our upcoming situations and are running out of time for it to happen. 

As recently as 5 days ago, computer models were simulating some outlandish outcomes with this upcoming storm set to impact us Thursday January 12th through early Saturday January 14th. Most of these scenarios involved a lot of rain in mild weather.  With the event now more imminent, model consensus has reverted back to indicating a winter weather event Vermont is more accustomed to. We will work with limited existing area of low level cold on Thursday and get a period of snow beginning in the middle of the morning and persisting until early evening. Higher resolution data hasn't been especially aggressive with accumulations but front end thumping is often under-estimated as is the nature of the snow, which should remain powdery while it's actually falling. Saw a local TV met suggest a wet snow Thursday and this might be right across the Champlain Valley, but high country temps should stay in the 20's during the day Thursday. 

The track of this moisture-rich storm system has shifted south just a bit but the potential for a coastal low takeover appears considerably lower. The low pressure center in question is actually expected to track right over or just north of the MRV and subsequently into the NEK. This makes it a colder storm but there are clear indications that above freezing mid-level warmth consumes us Thursday evening and turns precipitation to sleet or freezing rain and unfortunately it appears to be more of the latter. It will depend on where you are, but there will be locations that see some significant icing since I think temperatures will struggle to warm out of the low 30's or above the freezing mark Thursday night. By Friday morning, models do show readings a few degrees above the freezing mark with a few hours of moderate to heavy rain. To avoid this outcome the storm track needs to shift another 100 miles south. Assuming it doesn't, we can expect 2-4 inches of snow Thursday, some ice Thursday night, some rain early Friday and then a bit more snow late Friday afternoon, Friday night and very early Saturday. I would describe the setup for that back-end snow as mediocre with a favorable flow setup but minimal instability. I actually think we can procure another 2-4 inches of snow out of this making for some wind blown dust on a bit of crust situation by the ski day Saturday. The first day of the holiday weekend should feature clouds and snow flurries giving way to sunshine and temperatures in the 20's. Not especially cold but a persistent north wind will make an average January day feel a bit colder. So to summarize, it's 2-4 of snow and ice Thursday and Thursday night and then rain early Friday and another 2-4 late on Friday and Friday night. 

Both Sunday and Monday look like outstanding weather days with decreasing winds Sunday and Monday while the storm offshore sucks all the cloudiness away. Both days could turn out to be complete bluebird specials with temps rising into the 20's Sunday and 30's Monday. Enjoy that sunshine because I don't see too much of that for the rest of the week and not a lot of accompanying cold weather either. Though readings continue to look well above average through January 20th, there have been indications that we could avoid another excessive round of temperatures. There are two storm systems of note next week, one during the middle part of the week and one at the end. This means a lot of cloudiness as mentioned and probably some rain from the first one. The late week system has little cold air to work with, but an optimal track could it at least make it interesting ahead of the January 21-22 weekend. 

The aforementioned 3rd full weekend of what has, so far, been a miserable winter weather month in Vermont appears to be the target date for a pattern change. Ensembles are now more aggressively indicating the change which consists more of a stormy pattern in the period between January 21st and January 25th and finally the arrival of some arctic air before the last weekend of the month. What I especially like is the formation of a legitimate jet stream block north of the eastern Eurasian continent. It is the strongest feature on the playing field in 7-10 days and it's a mechanism capable of delivering arctic air southward at least into Canada and ending what has been an excessive stretch of warmth especially in the eastern part of the country. Various ensembles have differed with the evolution of this blocking feature and how much arctic air might be driven south into North America but there seems to be a consensus that the mild pattern will be driven away for the last third of January opening the door for some sustained winter weather in Vermont.

MLK weekend magic still possible with upcoming storm though a challenging setup still looms next week

We finally managed to restore some respectability to the season and to January specifically with a stretch of below freezing temperatures that began late Saturday. We also got the long welcomed and anticpated bluebird day Sunday, and found some additional sunshine for Monday. We have more sunny days in store for the rest of this week ahead of the late week storm system that needs some discussion. In the meantime a weak jet disturbance is set to bring colder Canadian air into northern Vermont and interior New England for the middle of this week. This disturbance is also capable of bringing snow showers back to the northern mountains of Vermont for Monday night into early Tuesday before that aforementioned sun returns for later Tuesday. We have been stripped of most of our snow cover and snow showers overnight Monday won't totally save us, but we have the favorable northwest flow we often lack and both Sugarbush and Mad River Glen should score 2 to as much as 5 inches from this with lesser amounts in valley locations. Any snow should be followed by a continuation of more seasonable and sub-freezing temperatures along with that return to sunshine. Single digit temperatures are actually expected Wednesday morning followed by more sunshine during the day. 

Clouds from the pre-MLK weekend east coast storm are expected to arrive as early as Wednesday night and I am hoping for some precipitation during the day Thursday because any of that will fall in the form of snowfall. Models have not been especially bullish on the front end thumping possibilities Thursday but they are indicating a few inches. More generally however, model data simulations have shifted the track of the initial storm northward and have placed it over the St Lawrence Valley early Friday morning. This is not so good and would guarantee a change from snow to ice and eventually a period of rain Friday morning. So how do we conjure up some MLK magic out of this you ask ? Well it's possible ! We've got 2 major computer model simulations suggesting that the St Lawrence Valley low pressure center will weaken and ultimately be consumed by a coastal area of low pressure expected to form near the Delmarva Peninsula. If this low bombs quickly enough and then proceeds to track over Cape Cod which is quite possible in this setup, another MLK fireworks celebration can occur and we won't need a lot Canadian cold air to do it. Rain would change to heavy snow early on Saturday and we would get a hearty accumulation. Easy to be a skeptic the way things have been going and it does require an aligning of a few different stars, but our MLK tinkerbell has worked for us many times and we have legitimate data suggesting such an outcome is possible. 

Whatever we can procure from a snowfall standpoint in the Thursday through Saturday time frame, we will get it with very little help from any arctic air. With the EPO shifting back into positive territory, we are still facing a challenging setup next week with mild air expected to envelop an expansive area in eastern North America both in Canada and the United States. Perhaps we can find a way through all this for the simple reason that often times when ensembles suggest a certain outcome long enough, the weather will simply find a way to defy expectations, but needless to say it does not look especially wintry between the 17th -20th (Tuesday-Friday). The Sunday and Monday part of the MLK weekend do appear mostly sub-freezing with temps in the teens and 20's during the overnight and rising to the 20's Sunday and 30's Monday. 

The jet stream in the Pacific is still expected to abate and allow the EPO to potentially turn negative again around the 21st and when combined with a slightly negative arctic oscillation, makes the outlook beyond January 21st to appear more favorable. We still lack a mechanism capable of transporting large amounts of arctic air southward quickly in the foreseeable future but a tamed Pacific combined with just a minimal amount of blocking in the arctic should allow at least some arctic air to ooze southward. The Hudson Bay has completed its freeze and is no longer acting as a roadblock for transporting arctic cold into Quebec which is certainly helpful.

Hoping for a little MLK weekend magic but overall pattern remains pretty unfavorable until around January 20th when some signs of a change have emerged

Over the next several days, and hopefully through MLK weekend if we can find some more magic, northern Vermont and the MRV will be able to squeeze some winter out of a lousy early January weather pattern over eastern North America. I can't say I am surprised about a multi-week lousy batting slump given what some of the pre season indicators were suggesting, particularly the La Nina/-PDO combination that continues to prevail over the Pacific Ocean from the equatorial regions to the Bering Sea. I am surprised with the specific evolution of weather events however which included a beautifully blocked setup in December that produced a massive arctic outbreak across the central and southern U.S. right before Christmas and the even faster retreat of arctic air afterwords. That we managed to scour the entire North American continent of arctic air so quickly in the days after Christmas was startling in a La Nina year. Though the Pacific has gotten quite angry as evidence by the freight train of storms pounding California, La Nina winters often feature mild surges of air across the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states with at least some arctic cold remaining in close proximity across Canada. So far this January, Canada has been excessively warm and this is not indicated to change until at least January 20th which has been particularly problematic for us and might prove to be a thorn in our side next weekend when a big east coast storm comes calling. We still have some hope on that sucker however lets not forget about the magic pixie dust MLK weekend can manage to provide. Its been a much friendlier holiday to us than Christmas! 

Some very welcome sunshine, a full day of it on Sunday should feel pretty nice after the succession of cloudy days we've had. Temperatures in the high 20's or low 30's in the valley locations and light winds is pretty tolerable for January as well. Some blue sky should return for Monday though winds will increase some and may push temperatures above the freezing mark in low lying areas during the afternoon. The forecast then looks cooler for Tuesday with the opportunity for some snow showers and then sunshine should return for a good part of Wednesday along with seasonable and sub-freezing temperatures. The airmass restoring some respectability to our current January is more Canadian than arctic and will hold a tenuous grip on New England later in the week as a storm plows eastward toward the Ohio Valley. The track of this storm appears less of a problem than maintaining a supply of cold air throughout the event. Still, interior New England is positioned decently for a front end thump of snow late on Thursday or Friday. There have been consistent indications that this storm undergoes an aggressive maturation along the Mid-Atlantic which would be great if more arctic air was present but the lack thereof leaves even interior sections of New England vulnerable to westward surge of warmth from the Atlantic on the north flank of the storm. It would be wise to expect changes however and important to also note that medium range models do have a propensity to over amplify storms that are more than a week away. A flatter wave does have the potential to yield a mostly wintry weather situation at our latitude. Additionally the flow is split enough that the whole event could simply remain south of Vermont. My biggest fear is the lack of cold air over Canada as the event unfolds and this does keep the door open for a change to rain, even with this seemingly optimal storm trajectory. 

There's some light on the horizon out around January 20-22 with abating conditions in the Pacific and a mildly negative arctic oscillation that should allow colder arctic air to push southward across North America. Until that time however we have to contend with another temper tantrum in the Pacific in the week of January 16th to the 20th with mild weather appearing very likely across all of New England, perhaps strong enough to produce another multi-day thaw, rain and even 50-degree temperatures. We still have some time to avoid that outcome but ensembles have locked on to this signal for several days and above to much above normal temperatures have appeared more and more likely in that time frame. The weather in California in this weather pattern has been relentless and the old adage "when it rains it pours" must somehow stem from California climatology or perhaps the monsoon in India. On this upcoming Tuesday, January 10th, the golden state is expected to get absolutely slammed by jet stream energy capable of producing flooding rains, mudslides and upwards of another 3 feet of snow in Tahoe. Even towns along the lakeshore there have reported a 3-foot snowpack which is unusual below 7000 feet. I might add that in several recent storms it has rained at the lake level yet they still have 3 feet of snow on the ground simply because of the amount of water this weather pattern has unleashed on that region. The destructive aspect of all this is obviously not good but the region has needed the water along with many other states out west.

 

Aside from a burst of winter weather late next week and a possible storm 1/13-1/14, the general weather pattern continues to appear mild

We seem to be enveloped in an extra seemingly permanent form of cloudiness that when added to the dismal weather pattern does not calculate to a very joyous mood.  We managed to get most of the upper part of the mountain back below the freezing mark as of Thursday afternoon but remain stripped of much of our natural snow and our in desperate need of a storm to jump start our engines. The short term outlook did not trend in the direction I wanted. A few days ago, we seemed well positioned to capitalize on a eastward moving jet impulse capable of producing a decent burst of snow; in fact, we seemed too well-positioned because I knew that the high res data would chime in and move the chess pieces around and ultimately indicate a lesser result for us. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened. I am going to hold out a little hope here but the best area of snow is expected to establish itself over NW Connecticut and the Berkshires very late Thursday night and proceed to eastern Mass and the NH seacoast Friday. The concentrated area of snow (and some rain for the coast) will actually rob us of our potential snow. Southern Vermont should score a few inches by midday Friday morning while northern Vermont is largely relegated to seeing snow showers Friday afternoon and Friday night. Maybe we can get an 1-2 across the high country out of this, but this appears to be a rather frustrating swing and miss overall. 

The current streak of cloudiness may give way to a few breaks of blue sky Saturday, but clouds flurries and light snow showers should dominate the weather picture for the first part of the weekend. Our sunny day finally arrives Sunday and it should feel pretty good with winds remaining in the relatively gentle category and temperatures up near 30 degrees. 

We have a bit more clarity on the weather picture for next week. Though remain locked in a very non arctic air producing pattern, some chilly Canadian air is making the Wednesday-Friday period look wintry. Before that, we should be able to squeeze another sunny day out of Monday and a somewhat mild day Tuesday with southwesterly winds bringing above-freezing temperatures back to Vermont temporarily during the afternoon.  The late week period does appear more interesting however with the arrival of chilly temperatures on Wednesday. The impulse responsible for bringing winter back to New England is also capable of producing a burst of snowfall Wednesday morning and then exploding off the coast as it combines with some old Pacific jet energy. Though we certainly need to keep an eye on that storm a little, ensembles have been showing some potential with the ensuing Pacific jet impulse and storm which appears more robust as it enters the plains than its predecessor. The area of Canadian cold will be well in place across New England as this storm approaches with temperatures on Thursday ranging from single digits for a low and low 20's for a high but for this to manifest into a significant snowstorm we will need the storm to track far enough to the north to bring us the moisture while at the same time not flush the limited supply of existing cold away. Both will remain a question for a few more days since we are over a week from this potential event. 

Ensembles have largely confirmed what appears to be an angrier looking Pacific Ocean toward the middle of the month. Much of the bitterly cold arctic air will remain stuck over the eastern Eurasian continent including Siberia, Mongolia and even the more populated areas of China, the Korean peninsula and Japan could eventually get in on this arctic outbreak. The angry Pacific though makes it very difficult for arctic air to move south in North  America in a material way. We had a small window to do this with a negative EP/AO beginning now and persisting through the end of next week, but that window gets slammed shut late next week and persisting through at least January 20th. Winter weather is possible but will have to come in the form of storminess from the Pacific with a limited supply of cold to our north. This is a big difference from last January when much of Canada was covered in cold all month. East coast snow lovers have a shot with the storm late next week but after that, if you live on or close to the coast, the weather pattern isn't friendly.

Excessive warmth is cancelled for rest of this week and some cold rain Wednesday night is expected to turn to some snow Thursday/Friday

The radar and temperature map Tuesday afternoon is a complete debauchery with a huge area of rain covering much of Pennsylvania and New York while a complete torch-fest rages across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. It all appears to be headed in Vermont's direction yet the heaviest rain will actually miss the northern part of the state and the warmth will also stay mainly to the south. It all boils down to a temperature forecast in the short term that isn't nearly as mild as once feared while the snow forecast continues to inch in the right direction. The news isn't all good and I will discuss that later but the outlook continues to look a little brighter for us winter weather lovers over at least the next 10 days. 

Much of that aforementioned rain on Tuesday will try and push north but will weaken as it does so and  will amount to a few hours of light rain during the overnight hours in the MRV. Meanwhile temperatures aren't really expected to move anymore and the large area of warmth over the Mid Atlantic will stay where it is. Readings will more or less stay in the 30's under a blanket of cloudiness that is expected to envelop the region for much of the rest of the week. A second surge of moisture is expected to reach us on Wednesday night in the form of a cold rain but as this is happening, a low level push of cold will be taking shape and by Thursday morning will be very close to bringing us a temperature profile capable of supporting snow. From there questions continue regarding how much moisture can we squeeze out of a disorganized low pressure conglomeration gradually indicated to sag southweastward. Some, I think. Light snow should begin falling Thursday morning with temperature hovering at or just below the freezing mark. The snow Thursday is not expected to be heavy and accumulations will likely be in the 1-3 inch range, but there's an enhanced surface feature that has the potential to bring a 2-5 inch category snow for us on Friday. Though we appear to be in a fairly good position for this additional Friday snow, it's also easy to envision a shift so stay tuned. Thursday also begins a stretch of mostly sub-freezing temperatures that should prevail across the high country for most of next week. I say most for a reason because the pattern isn't cold enough to prevent an above freezing hour here or there during the afternoons, but we seemed to have killed the excessive mild weather for at least a little while. 

Though a lot of mild weather covering Canada with a very weakened polar jet in North America, we do have some split flow in the jet stream with the storminess in the Pacific  moving across the country underneath the ridging which is expected to set up shop in western North America next week. This is a big reason why our temperature outlook is just "mild" relative to average and not "total torch". There are a couple of systems to watch in the Saturday, January 7th time frame to Monday, January 9th but moisture appears to be focused on areas south of us. Though we could use some additional snowfall, we might have to settle for some long awaited sunshine which may show up in a limited way on Saturday and appears more likely Sunday into Monday. A little snow cover might allow temperatures to cool into the teens Sunday and Monday mornings with high temperatures approaching 30 across the high country. As we move through next week, the set up looks interesting with a couple of additional features undercutting the +PNA ridge. One of two features could end up blossoming into a substantial east coast precipitation-maker and a snow producer for interior locations across the northeast. I can't say which one or make guarantees regarding either one, but we will be provided with a few chances. 

Now on to the not so great news. 2 days ago I was largely encouraged by both the short term cooling trend and for the potential to see some arctic air return to the forecast picture later in the month. Ensembles have moved in the wrong direction today mainly because they show a Pacific again growing a bit irritated as we move into the middle part of January. Often times I am at odds with the collection of social media wishcasters who have a habit of downplaying trends or data they don't like or want, but there was some understandable confusion and contradictions about what ensembles are showing and MJO forecasts which continue to show a more favorable set up. Taking the data at face value though, there is no indication that much of Canada will chill down and winter weather will have to come as a result of undercutting storminess while cold air will be in limited supply. I am glad we are in the coldest part of our climatology because we can put it to good use in this pattern.

Excessive mild weather ends Wednesday and pattern to support gradual improvements perhaps beginning late this week

Happy New Year everyone ! Hopefully everyone had a good holiday and if the mild, rainy weather has you down and out I am here to reassure you that better times are ahead. And no I am not a therapy blogger, I don't just say that for the sake of making people feel better, I am actually quite hopeful and optimistic about how the rest of this winter will ultimately play out. We will need some patience and I would certainly recommend that you consider the next few days a sunk cost as far as weather goes, but after that we should see some gradual improvements and I consider the chances for another big snow better than average after January 10th while the chances for at least some snow have improved even before January 10th.

I expect that we successfully sneak below the freezing mark both Sunday and Monday night and I would hope that we can at least end our holiday period with a few hours of sun during the day Monday which is posssible. The mild stretch will continue however through Wednesday with readings again soaring into the 50's on that dreaded southwest wind. The approaching weather system on Wednesday is not expected to bring a ton of rain to interior New England but we won't stay dry either with sporadic wet weather throughout the day. And then it actually gets a little interesting. Though the pattern supports and has supported a very extended stretch of mild weather in eastern Canada, there is just enough available cold later in the week to spice up the weather forecast across Vermont. Winds will become northerly Wednesday evening allowing for a low level push of cold to envelop northern Vermont and eventually temperatures profiles will support a period of snowfall on Thursday. The question relates to available moisture and the evolution of this sagging area of low pressure which is eventually expected to reposition itself and strengthen southeast of Long Island. There have been indications of a corridor of snow with this on Thursday and other indications that the storm may have a second life on Friday and deliver more snowfall for portions of the northeast though we have yet to establish a consensus on where that might be or even if that will happen at all. At the very least, the door is open to a few interesting possibilities late this week and I put our chances for a few inches of snow better than 50 percent while our chances for 6 inches of snow (or more) at roughly 25 percent. 

 As I mentioned, much of eastern Canada along with the U.S. portion of North America has gotten a torch to finish 2022 and to start 2023. Much of Canada is expected to remain on the mild side through this week and next with the core of the warmth shifting westward over time while some storminess undercuts the ridging across the United States. Arctic air across North America will be very limited for the first two weeks of January but the pattern, specifically the mildly negative AO and the ridging expected to establish itself across western North America and weaker version north of Siberia should allow arctic air to slowly spill southward into North America and Vermont as the month progresses. It will be very mild this upcoming week (in spite of the cooler and possibly snowier late week forecast), it will continue to be mild next week relative to average but not excessive enough to allow for a major thaw. After Friday, the forecast does appear somewhat dry or at least free of major precipitation producers, but the pattern supports storminess, perhaps in a very significant way as next week concludes. 

So why would I be optimistic about the rest of January ? Well, I actually prefer a January pattern not overwhelmed with arctic cold as those setups have a propensity to suppress storms and stabilize and mitigate the more convective forms of snowfall that tend to congregate around the mountain. The upcoming pattern however after Wednesday, though  not arctic for a time, is not unfavorable with no glaring teleconnection index beating us down. Meanwhile the AO will support a slow reemergence of arctic chill and most importantly, we have some positive energy in the Pacific with a negative EPO supporting a more split flow setup rather than the angry energy that drives arctic air off the continent.