Great coverage on the hill today, but we had to earn it the hard way. It was a pretty disheartening drive up Rte 17 this morning watching the temperature rise from 30 in the valley to 38 at the base and realize part of the inversion had mixed out allowing for some of that lower mountain slop. The upper mountain skied beautifully all day and was made even better by a healthy dose of back-end upslope snow showers that presided over the northern Green Mountains through much of the day. The above freezing temperatures we experienced this morning might not return again for an extended 10-12 day stretch of time. I have some concerns about the longer range outlook, but the outlook through about February 6th appears generally cold and wintry with a few chances for additional snows and a chance for one short-lived surge of extreme cold though the models have failed to provide any certainty about the latter.
The upcoming weekend doesn't look especially sunny but we can expect some breaks in the overcast for Friday, a seasonable winter day with tolerable winds and temperatures starting in the teens and rising into the 20's. We are a few weeks away from the next full moon, but we should get a starlit night Friday night before clouds return for Saturday along with some light snow. The clipper system is passing way too far north to cause snow of any significance but we could see an inch or so while valley locations warm from the low teens all the way past the freezing mark (mountain should remain below freezing). Models continue to indicate clouds and a decent period of snow during the ski day Sunday. I am a bit worried the best frontogenetics with this overrunning type snowfall are north of us but lets call a 3-5 inch snow possible and at least a 1-3 inch snow likely as of the time of this update.
This classic La Nina set up will produce the big temperature clash next week with balmy conditions in the southeast United States while cold grips the upper midwest. With the polar jet having returned, more than one waves are indicated to have the potential to evolve into precipitation and snowfall producers for New England though models are having difficulty discerning which of these to key in on. Ensemble data, usually the most reliable source of data in these uncertain environments, is showing the best shot at snow coming Tuesday night into Wednesday. More snowfall is certainly possible though as a larger chunk of arctic air approaches us on Friday. I should point out that a massive buildup of bitterly cold arctic air is expected to build up across much of southeast Canada by the end of the week. We are one good potent disturbance away from receiving at least a chunk of this bitterly cold air sometime between late Thursday, February 2nd and Sunday February 5th. A few of the many runs of the various medium range operational models are bringing a surge of this bitterly cold air into northern New England in this time frame while other indications suggest just a glancing blow. The bitterly cold air, if it hits, won't last more than a few days and some warm advection snowfall is likely as the cold weather abates toward the beginning of the first full week of February.
This brings us to the undesirable portion of the update. The Pacific jet stream continues to be a problem in this very negative PDO winter and the pattern is indicated to realign itself back toward one favoring storminess in the west and milder conditions in the east. There are some material differences between this pattern and the one producing the atmospheric river of storminess in California and the big retreat of arctic cold in North America earlier this month. In fact, this pattern is nothing like that but there is a clear signal that milder temperatures will strengthen over a large section of the eastern United States while arctic cold remains present southern Canada. The latter feature will hopefully become a critical ally and keep northern Vermont wintry even if mild weather returns to southern New England and points south. It seems like wishful thinking in a winter like this but it has happened many times here especially in February (most recently last year on February 4).
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