Optimism remains in short supply over the next 10 days regarding winter weather in Vermont. An inch of mostly wet snow remains likely across the high country Tuesday night and temperatures will remain in close contact with the freezing mark during the ski day on Wednesday though readings will make a run at 40 in the valley locations. On Thursday we are looking at a 20 degree morning with some limited sunshine and then we are enveloped by cloudiness as temperatures inch above the freezing mark. Precipitation is indicated to arrive sometime Thursday evening and vertical temperature profiles are showing the possibility of some icing, especially up off the valley floor. The ice should eventually change to rain everywhere but the wet weather doesn't appear as damaging as the 40-plus temperatures we are expected to experience on Friday. Friday actually appears to be a drier day now as much of the precipitation is indicated to push off to our north and east. A few hours of sun on Friday could push readings as high as 50 on the valley floor though the mountains should remain considerably cooler than that.
Though the prevailing pattern is highly unfavorable and will remain so through next week, we had some hope for a period of significant snowfall associated with an incoming surge of colder air Friday night into Saturday. Data continues to show the cold day for Saturday but have decisively reduced the probability for any snowfall. The potent jet impulse responsible for igniting that 2nd area of low pressure remains a big part of Friday's weather map but the resulting storm appears farther south and east and barring a big northward shift, the weather for the weekend appears drier and sunnier. Snowfall could have been very helpful in disguising any rain or ice damage and at this time it does not appear we are in line for very much.
There continues to be strong evidence pointing to a big jet stream amplification over the western United States early next week and this is certainly supported by the evil empire (+EPO) setup in the Pacific. It's been a very good snow year for many ski areas out west and next week will be another good one for them and bad one for us. Hopefully the jet stream is indicated to become a little flatter next week which would allow us to mitigate what appears to be a very broad area of mild air encompassing eastern North America. If we can't move toward this flatter jet stream, multiple days of excessive warmth along with rainfall will dominate the forecast picture late next week. Its got the potential to be very ugly but it remains far enough out on our timeline for some changes to occur. Meanwhile, I am still cautiously optimistic about the buildup of colder air over Canada towards the middle of the month and continue to see some potential that arctic could play a bigger role in our weather after February 17. There is little evidence that the pattern will shift outright to a favorable east coast snow environment, but I remain of the opinion that northern New England is positioned to see some action later in the month.
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