As expected, winter weather conditions will continue this week, at least at skiing elevations in the MRV. We won't be able to manufacture any big snow but there are two chances for small accumulations and temperatures between Tuesday and Friday morning are generally expected to stay below freezing across the higher elevations though low lying areas can expect afternoon temps in the high 30's and low 40's most of this week. Our first new snow comes Monday night from a storm making a last ditch effort to ignite south of Long Island. Southern Vermont can expect a decent elevation event from this with 4-6 inches above 2000 feet while valley areas see some rain change to a bit of wet snow. The MRV is on the northern edge of this area of precipitation and we can generally expect a lesser version of southern Vermont's weather. This means 1-3 inches for Sugarbush and Mad River Glen with about an inch expected in valley areas. There are two reinforcements of colder air this week with the first arriving behind Monday nights snow. Clouds on Tuesday should break for a little sunshine with temperatures rising into the 30's, but again, probably staying sub-freezing at higher elevations. Sunshine and a southwesterly flow of air should boost readings in valley areas to the 40's following a near 20 degree start. Clouds then arrive Wednesday evening and a period of snow during the overnight hours is likely to bring a few inches of snow for the Thursday ski day. This is a potent little surge of late March cold so the 1-4 inches of snow that is expected should be more of the powdery variety and will be accompanied by mostly 20-degree temperatures throughout the day. There is a slight chance that this could wind up being the last powdery turns of the season, but April always seems to feature unexpected volatility and I can remember hiking in powder at the summits in both late April and May so this would be an unwise prediction even though the outlook has trended to the warmer side.
There's been a lot of talk of changes with ENSO moving forward and a possible El Nino in the months ahead. This does not apply to the weather pattern next week which looks like the epitome of a La Nina set up with cold gripping portions of western North America and covering a large portion of southern Canada as mild air makes a northward push along the east coast. The surge of warmth for Satuday, April Fools Day appears very potent, capable of making a strong interior New England dent. There's a strong storm system associated with this push and it's likely to produce severe weather late Friday and Friday night across the Ohio Valley only a few days removed from the 49th anniversary of the 1974 super-outbreak of tornadoes that occurred in the same area. The storm is ultimately expected to track near or just south of the St Lawrence Valley and bring some wet weather at all of our elevations on Saturday. Still, some uncertainty remains regarding the nature of the weather for Saturday as clouds could break for some sunshine allowing strong southwesterly winds to boost readings up toward 60. I am not sure that happens but it's almost a certainty that the higher dewpoints on Saturday will bring the corn out if you can dodge the rain drops (We should see a drier period in spite of the showery forecast). Colder weather returns for Saturday night and so will some wet snow showers but sunshine should return for the ski day on Sunday with readings remaining in the 30's on the mountain. As for next week, the battle between some very spring-like weather across the Mid-Atlantic and wintry conditions in southern Canada will resume. Models have placed us on either side of this battle, but for the most part, I think we are on the colder side of this divide with a mid-week storm system bringing us a plethora of precipitation types.
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