Just an outstanding bluebird kind of day on the mountain Sunday with the bright sun and minimal wind really mitigating the chill of the recent cold weather. I hope folks got a chance to enjoy it in some form because those days have been few and far between this year and appear very few and far between over the next 10 days. At least the first half of Monday appears to be another sunbath with temperatures warming from sub-zero levels all the way to 30 degrees, but clouds are expected to be on the increase in the afternoon and clouds are a big part of the outlook beyond that.
The recent outbreak of arctic air across the country is modifying while the available resupply of cold air is retreating northward into Canada. Across the middle part of the United States, the impact is dramatic with temperatures warming 50-60 degrees over the course of a week. New England, which really never got all that cold during the recent bout of cold air, will also be slow to warm in spite of the terrible looking jet stream highlighted in the previous post. Just as temperatures begin to challenge the freezing mark this Tuesday, arctic air will force its way back into northern New England (just barely) and we have a nice setup for some overrunning snow on Wednesday. This snow should begin Tuesday evening and continue into early Wednesday, a steady light snow with temperatures within a few degrees of 30. Over the years, I've seen northern Vermont overperform quite a bit in these type of setups with light snow often persisting longer than anticipated. Though this could be another one of those cases, the warmer push of temperatures is expected to push the overrunning zone of snow farther north as Wednesday progresses and snowfall accumulations should remain in the 3-6 inch category.
Thursday appears to be just cloudy and mild and so long as we can remain out of the stronger southwest flow, it should remain just mild as opposed to excessively mild with temperatures in the 30's to near 40. We are clearly lacking enough cold air as the next weather system early Friday. I've more or less thrown in the towel on this puppy and just hope most of the precipitation stays south of us somehow. There has been some evidence of a low level push of cold from the northeast though I think this raises the concern for ice more than anything else. Ice or rain or nothing, it all should be over by the start of Saturday, which appears to be another mild day relative to normal with temperatures in the thirties.
The last few days of January into early February look like a blowtorch for much of the country but not for New England, the one place where winter will make, or at least try to make a stand. There's been some envidence of a potential storm Sunday January 28th into Monday January 29th, a late northeast coast bloomer from two merging systems. There's also been some evidence of a temporary return of some arctic chill with some some accompanying snow right at the end of the month. At the very least, it looks like a more wintry 5-day period for the region even as much above normal temperatures rage across the northern plains and portions of the Great Lakes. The ridge responsible for that warmth is indicated to push east toward New England according to ensemble data for the first full weekend of February. Though we continue to see a somewhat cooperative Pacific, we aren't getting any help from the various teleconnection indicators which are actually indicated to turn very unfavorable to start February. We have some things going for us to start the month which include a weakening El Nino and a neutralized Great Lakes aggregate which has cooled thanks to the recent arctic outbreak, but we still need a little help from the weather pattern. Hoping to see a little more evidence of split flow in the jet stream which would certainly go along way to alleviating my concerns.
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