Our mountains are a few days in and about a foot of snow deep into this early dose of winter. The longer range outlook took a less than favorable turn on us, but the upcoming week still appears to be a productive one. We've been in a tight range on temperatures with just enough clouds and wind to keep readings above 20 degrees during the nights while only rising a few degrees during the daylight hours.
That mostly cloudy sky is expected to be with us through much of this wintry week. Lighter snow showers are expected to continue with minimal accumulation through Tuesday and our best chance for some blue sky might be on a chilly Wednesday morning. Clouds are then expected to then thicken again with light snow developing in the afternoon. This is an impressive looking clipper system that is poised to bring us this burst of snow, but I sure wish we could get this sucker do dig a little harder on its southeast trajectory. Still we appear to be in the favorable quadrant of what is commonly referred to in meteorological parlance as the "jet max" and results after Thursday night should be pretty good. A period of steady snows appears very likely, as mentioned Wednesday night, but the best snow may come late Thursday into early Friday with a plume of Champlain enhanced moisture and a beautiful cold northwest flow to blow that moisture toward us. 2-4 inches seems most likely during the first period of light snow Wednesday evening and then 4-8 inches of more elevation sensitive snow late Thursday into Thursday night. A healthy burst of early season chill will accompany this later burst of snow and Friday's temperatures on the mountain are likely to stay in the teens.
A second clipper system, weaker than its predecessor is expected to bring more clouds and some snow for Saturday and will help extend the stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. A little early to speak on snowfall expectations except to suggest it looks higher than zero and lower than 6.
I've been operating under the assumption we would get another week of colder weather similar to the current one and though arctic air remains a significant part of the picture, the long wave pattern appears a bit different with cold expected to shift its focus westward. The biggest concern with this change relates to the possibility of an area of low pressure taking an inland route of bringing warmer weather and a spat of rainfall. There are a couple of different directions this could still go and models have been painting a variety of possible outcomes though the one early Monday appeared warmer unfortunately.
Another round of sub-freezing temperatures is expected to follow whatever scenario happens early in the week before ensembles indicate another potential western North America jet amplification for the 2nd full weekend of December. Still some good news in that we are not going to lose the support of a more favorable Pacific jet stream. Additionally, ensembles indicate ridging over Alaska which should keep arctic air well-positioned to envelop much of Canada. We are way, way behind with Hudson Bay ice so far this cold season with less than 5 percent of that northern body of water showing ice cover as of December 1st. The Hudson Bay has been freezing later in recent years thanks to the impacts of climate change, but even with these headwinds, 20-30 percent of that 500,000 square mile region should have ice by now. The presence of arctic air should help reduce the open water over the next 2 weeks.
