Soggy and rainy conditions finally enveloped Vermont on Monday, but it's a little easier to swallow when you look out to the horizon to see what's coming. December is a notoriously erratic month and though this one was colder than recent versions, it still brought us its on version of ups and downs. A more westerly flow of mild and drier Pacific air will give us clouds and some limited sun on New Year's Eve and with the exception of the higher summits, temperatures should remain primarily above freezing. As opposed to the inversions we've seen in recent days where temperatures have actually been higher in elevated areas as opposed to valley areas, Tuesday will be very much the reverse with a well mixed atmosphere bringing readings well into the 40's in valley areas while temps are close to freezing above 3,000 feet.
Raise a glass to 2025 and make sure you raise a glass to the incoming weather that is poised to accompany it. Like a picturesque version of fundamental support for persistent cold out through the middle of January and I'll talk about that a few paragraphs down. New Year's itself has an interesting storm and one we could certainly use. Very marginal temperatures will persist over low lying areas, but readings will be colder over higher elevations and will thus support a very terrain sensitive event on New Year's Day and in the days that follow where lingering moisture will support occasional snowfall through January 3rd. Mixed precipitation, rain in the lowest elevations and wet snow across the mountains begins early Wednesday morning. By dawn, I think the ski areas will see primarily a wet snowfall with a continuation of mixed precipitation in valley areas. If precipitation becomes heavy, and there are indications it might as the storm in question continues to strengthen, it will help cool temperatures, change all precipitation to snow and allow the material accumulations to begin across country. This is a healthy looking storm that will deepen nicely as it approaches the southeast Maine coastline. More importantly, it will fully mature and slow underneath the jet stream blocking in Canada. Wet snow will total 4-8 inches on Wednesday and this snow will become drier Wednesday night and continue into Thursday when an additional 4-8 inches should be expected with lesser amounts in valley areas. And it will go on still with an additional 3-6 inches falling between Thursday night into the ski day Friday. I will mention that the flow setup between Wednesday night in Friday is more westerly than northwesterly favoring the corridor from Smuggs north to Jay where I would expect a 3 day total of over 2 feet. The 11-22 inches I expect for us over these 3 days is very much needed and certainly will have us headed in the right direction into a very chilly weather pattern.
In the shorter term, bitterly cold temperatures will very slowly establish itself over Vermont. Readings will remain in the 20's over MRG Thursday, high teens Friday and mid teens for the weekend. Sunshine should make some limited appearances this weekend but some snowfall is indicated with a favorable flow of air over Lake Champlain. Completely reasonable to expect some additional cold powdery inches for the weekend.
The next organized weather system is expected to make an impact early next week and the weather universe is buzzing because of the potential snowfall in the big east coast cities. The hypothetical storm appears different on almost every model run and there are a lot of variables including a push of milder air well to our south and a polar jet. Regardless of this uncertainly, I am reasonably comfortable calling this a snow or no situation for us in northern Vermont with the impact being somewhere in the January 6th to Jan 8 time frame and probably 2 of those 3 days. The coldest weather of the week appears to be at the end and the most anomalous and frigid temperatures could well stay to our west through January 10th. In spite of that, i would not expect readings to spend too much time above the 20 degree mark.
I would buy the postcard if someone put this weather pattern on one. Just an exceptional jet stream structure on January 10th with the jet attaining this omega structure over Alaska and extending well north into the arctic circle. More ridging over the Davis strait and a nice quiet Pacific. Outbreaks of sub-zero temperatures and continuous opportunities for snowfall should be expected through January 15th and quite possibly beyond. You can get a rogue bad amplifier with a storm ingesting some steriod over the plains and maturing early and taking an inland track. I put this stuff out there early because every time I don't in a pattern like this it will find a way to happen just to make me look bad. Enjoy the New Year and don't let the mud get you down.
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