3-6 inches of windblown snow accompany a cold Winter Solstice weekend followed by only slowly moderating temperatures Christmas week

One healthy band of snow managed to rotate through the Mad River Valley on Friday and intermittent light snow will accompany the gradual descent of temperature readings along with the strong winds through Saturday. Total snow accumulations will be enhanced by the unfrozen state of Lake Champlain and although the big storm and heavy snow won't materialize, a cold 3-6 wind blown inches will provide some powdery turns. The intermittent snow will taper off and give way to some clearing Saturday night and sunshine should then make a partial appearance on Sunday. The big story is the cold obvoiusly. Temperatures will be near 10 while the snow is falling on Saturday and will be accompanied by 30 mph wind gusts, which could be higher at the summits. Actual temperatures Sunday are expected to stagnate in the single numbers with a continuation of near 30 mph wind gusts in spite of sunshine. Please dress accordingly. 

Winds will taper off late Sunday and clear skies along with the snow cover will provide the support for subzero temperatures Monday morning. We still expect a bluebird day Monday or at least most of Monday with calm winds and readings climbing into the teens. 

We are still expecting a surge in the EPO index around the Christmas holiday forcing arctic air to make a northward retreat. As mentioned in the last update, New England and Vermont in particular seem well positioned for a very slow moderation in temperatures throughout the holiday week. Additionally, a disturbance riding along the slowly eastward moving warmer temperatures will be the catalyst for a period of light snow Monday night into Christmas Eve. We appear to be in line for a few inches though we should expect some final alterations in these expectations over the coming days. Sunshine could make a nice appearance on Christmas Day and on the 26th. After that, an extended period of cloudiness which often accompanies a gradual push toward milder temperatures. Overall, none of these milder temperatures appear to be too much of a problem through the 27th with overnight readings remaining below freezing and daytime temperatures climbing beyond the freezing mark for a few hours late in the week. Moreover, Christmas week will feature no rain or mixed precipitation.

A massive blob of anomalous warmth across eastern Canada stands out like a sore thumb on the ensemble maps for the last full weekend of the 2024. In spite of this, there appears to be a way through this calamity and into 2025 which is starting to look very interesting, mostly because of potential storminess and more supportive temperatures. The days leading up to New Year's Day are the most challenging however since no fresh supply of cold exists within thousands of miles of us. A way through is contingent on the low sun angle of late December, minimal ambient flow that is not south or southwesterly and somehow avoiding potential rainfall. The operational simulations are going to be noisy out this far but it's encouraging that a few of them have indicated this possibility. Other simulations have shown some potential rainfall. The turn to colder weather and a higher probability of snow would then arrive on or before the first full weekend of 2025.

4-7 Wednesday night, some cold, light windblown snow Saturday and a slower temperature moderation Christmas week

Our round of new snow Wednesday night is on track and will mark the beginning of a nice stretch of pre-holiday wintry weather in northern Vermont. I had hoped that the responsible wave of low pressure would achieve a bit more legitimacy as it tracks over Cape Cod very early Thursday, but 1014 mb might be about all we can muster. The flat wave is still good enough to produce a period of wet snow beginning around 5-6 pm Wednesday evening and persisting for several hours. As expected, snow showers are expected in the aftermath although most of those will occur in the early morning and we should experience some clearing during the ski day Thursday. Accumulations get downgraded to the 4-7 inch category. Temperatures are still expected to drop enough by early Thursday to dry out the snow with readings on the mountain hovering near 20 and high 20's in valley locations. 

Models are telling me Friday is full of clouds with temperatures mostly in the teens. In the morning most of the clouds and some of the associated light snow will be over Michigan and rival state Ohio and my thinking is this will help induce a period of morning sunshine over us. Clouds, when they do arrive, will be a later day thing as the aforementioned clipper tries to merge with energy offshore Friday night. Right now, this merging is expected to take place too far east for heavy snow in Vermont or almost anywhere along the northeast coast. Coastal locations could still get a snow event of sorts but our snow will be generally light with accumulations in the windblown 1-4 inch category. The wind is a bigger story Saturday. When combined with actual temperatures of around 10 degrees, gusts over 30 mph will bring wind chills well below zero and easily make for the coldest ski day of the year. Wind chills are expected to be even worse Sunday in spite of more sunshine. Actual temperatures are expected to stay in the single numbers on the mountain and this means wind chill numbers lower than  20 below. 

Our winter solstice arctic outbreak is centered over New England and eastern Canada and is easily the coldest since late January of 2024. Temperatures might be even colder were it not for the Hudson Bay remaining more than 50 percent ice-free which marks the slowest pace of ice expansion since records of this began. Still, Monday January 23rd will be on old-fashion bluebird plate special with immaculate visibility, lower winds and temperatures climbing from subzero levels into the teens. We then have some good news for the duration of the Christmas holiday week with the temperature moderation appearing slower and a greater potential for some  light warm advection snowfall either Christmas Eve, Day or both. Though the rest of the country is expecting a more rapid rise in temperatures for the holiday as arctic air is expected to retreat in North America, New England seems well positioned to make the best final stand. High pressure is expected to remain situated to over the maritime region of Canada and December's low sun angle combined with an extended stretch of northeast flow, if that indeed prevails, will prevent excessive temperatures from making an assault on our ski country through December 27th.

Without a fresh available supply of colder air, there's some reason for concern as the New Year approaches and the threat of a more organized system and precipitation increases. The risk of any heavy precipitation appears low until the last full weekend of the month and then who knows. The coldest arctic air will remain bottled up into early 2025 as well but the outlook during the first full week of the new year has also shifted cooler as more ridging is now indicated in western North America. In early January, we have the climatological cushion of the coldest month of the year and a storm in the right place without the power of the polar jet can be the right ingredients for something interesting.

6-10 inches of new snow Wednesday night into Thurday and a milder outlook Christmas to New Year's

 The outlook continues to evolve for the home stretch of 2024 including the busy holiday period and there are some significant updates to the shorter term weather picture as well. Though it is amazing the progress that numerical weather prediction (modeling) has made during my professional life, stuff always seems to find a way to defy expectation. 

The cold rain Monday night shouldn't come as any surprise. Less than a quarter inch of this is expected and it should all be over by daybreak Tuesday. Daytime temperatures on Tuesday are the bigger story since we have a torchy dry westerly wind accompanied by some breaks of sunshine. This will boost temperatures to the highest levels of the month with close to 50-degree readings in valley locations and closer to 40 up on the mountain. Wednesday's temperatures are also expected to be mild but with less wind and ultimately more cloudiness 

Wednesday's late day clouds come out ahead of a nice midweek dose of snow. It will be a warmer event with temperatures within a few degrees of the freezing mark while the snow is falling. It all begins around 7 pm Wednesday with snow showers continuing through Thursday morning. The wet snow Wednesday night will amount to 4-6 inches but readings are expected to turn colder by Thursday morning (with the additional snow showers adding 2-4, supplying skiers with a well-deserved powder day. Northern Vermont is the place to be for this event as southern Vermont is expected to receive more ice and rain and is not positioned well for Thursday's snow showers. 

The solstice period defined by Friday December 20th to Monday December 23rd is very likely going to be the coldest period of the month.  Expect readings to stay below 20 on the mountain during most of this 96-hour stretch. The snow/storm potential is still there for Saturday though it does seem like the weaker storm Wednesday has helped to realign the storm track further southeast for the weekend. Energy and some light snow from the clipper is expected to be somewhere in the Ohio Valley on Friday and will be seeking fuel and support from any energy along the Atlantic coastline. The southeast shift of any such interaction is making it more unlikely that northern Vermont sees significant snow from this though a few of the many simulations over the past 24 hours still suggest its possible. What seems more likely right now is for the aforementioned cold and some accompanying snow showers Saturday followed by cold bluebird weather Sunday into Monday. 

The period running from Christmas Eve to New Year's Day continues to look warmer,the intensity of which comes as a surprise though some sort of Christmas thaw has been almost as certain in Vermont as the sun rising in the east over the past decade. Our one exception seems to be 2017-18 which was brutally cold. I was more surprised by the culprit for all this as it seems the jet in the Pacific will become rather intense in the days before Christmas, forcing arctic air into retreat mode. Though other teleconnection indicators continue to be mixed, the arctic retreat is legit and we can expect moderating temperatures by Christmas Eve and perhaps our first taste of above freezing temperatures on Christmas Day. For now, it continues to appear dry as this moderation is occurring without significant rain or mixed precipitation in the forecast picture until the last full weekend of the month. New Year's remains far enough out on the timeline for additional changes and hopefully a shift to more mitigated warmup. 

As we pass the 75th anniversary of Mad River Glen, it dawned on me how much pop culture has changed over that span of time, specifically music, my other passion. Out of respect for this, and hopefully as a pleasant distraction from a holiday thaw or anything else going on in the world, expect to see some music show up in the threads feed and on the blog. Each year of Mad River Glen's existence will see respect get paid to a different musician. That's 75 different musicians in 75 years and a challenge to come up with one good one for each year that was relevant to the year. It will be a fun exercise for me and hopefully an enjoyable listen should you partake in any of this journey.

Some snow potential emerging near the winter solstice while the outlook turns slightly milder around Christmas and beyond

With cold weather having returned to northern New England, we play the familiar game of searching in the outlook for our next chance at new natural snow. Looks like we will at least have one solid chance prior to Christmas. In spite of the recent rain, it's not been an especially bad start to December. Temperatures on the mountain are averaging in the low 20's with much of the fallen snow compressed into an icy base layer of concrete. Dust on crust. 

It was both a dry and extraordinarily sunny autumn period throughout New England, but our darkest month of  the year has seen clouds and a lot of precipitation so far. Friday featured some sunshine and this will be followed by two outstanding bluebird days with minimal wind. Saturday is the colder version with readings near 20 and Sunday is the more comfortable version with readings climbing to 30. The clear sky and tranquil winds will help bring many parts of Vermont below zero Sunday morning. 

Clouds are likely to return for Monday December 16th but the latest indication is that the warm advection snow, ice and rain stays to our south during the day. By Monday night light precipitation is expected to arrive as ice or rain and this could end as some wet snow on the mountains on Tuesday. Once again, temperatures are likely to stay in the 30's as the precipitation is falling and the mildest period in the week is likely Tuesday afternoon after the precipitation ends. 

The end of next week is beginning to look very interesting as there appears to be a building consensus for a big jet amplification. How this evolves in the form of specifics is very much a question as a series of jet impulses could have some impact on our weather. The one I have a particular eye on precedes the strongest surge of arctic chill so far this season and will rotate through the Great Lakes Friday. It has the potential for some constructive interaction with a weak low pressure area near the eastern seaboard with the end result being a material snow event somewhere in the northeast, most likely interior areas. Very cold weather and at least some snow showers is a minimal likely result of all this on Saturday (winter solstice day), with bitterly cold air and more snow showers lingering for Sunday. 

The previous paragraph summarizes much of the good news in this update. The more troubling part of the outlook involves the actual Christmas holiday and the immediate days after which do appear to be milder vs my earlier expectations. Though we do have continued support from the EPO, arctic air is expected to retreat somewhat over central and western Canada and the partially unfrozen Hudson Bay will make it more challenging to retain the existing cold in eastern Canada. For now, I would be inclined to favor only slightly above average temperatures and there are no glaring indications of wet weather .If we manage to lay down some significant snow next weekend (still a question), the holiday period could be a pretty good one relative to recent seasons.

Patience is required for help on new snow though pattern for the holidays continues to look encouraging

It was a soggy day, very much as expected across the mountains of northern Vermont. Temperatures however, remained in the 30's, defying expectations from a few days ago of a big spike and a bigger melt-off. This is important since the colder temperatures will preserve both some of the recent snowfall and will not put to waste all the snowmaking efforts from the nearly 2 weeks of sub-freezing temperatures. I remain cautiously optimistic on the outlook through the end of 2024 and perhaps even a step above "cautiously" as of Wednesday afternoon. We have the weather pattern aligned enough to support what could be the coldest December month since 2017. That said, we will have to be patient for our next chance at natural snow. We can expect a little taste here and there but still have another day of milder temperatures to endure (after today). 

Blustery winds will whip 20-30 degree temperatures back into the region by Thursday morning. The heavy rain will end as snow Wednesday night and we can expect light snow showers and flurries during the day Thursday, but the westerly flow is not an especially moist one for us and the heavier snow showers are more likely north of Stowe. Expect readings to fall not far from 10 degrees Friday morning and struggle to 20 Friday though with lots of December sunshine and excellent visibility. More blue skies can be expected Saturday, a comfortable day thanks to calmer winds and near 30-degree afternoon temperatures following a chilly start. 

The period beginning Sunday and ending Tuesday has been targeted by the various longer ensembles as a potential thaw or mild weather for awhile now. The warmth doesn't appear excessive and Sunday's increase in clouds underneath a surface wedge ridge are expected to help keep readings in check. Above freezing temps and some light mixed precipitation or rain appear pegged for Tuesday, December 17th before colder weather reestablishes a presence in New England. It's not a great outlook next week, but this could have easily been worse. Furthermore, longer range ensembles are providing us with our first hints of what could be our next significant snow either around or just before this year's winter solstice. 

This is underscoring a key point at the end of the last update about the pattern fundamentals for the rest of 2024. I really like the jet stream action in the Pacific and been pleasantly surprised that we might very well see this regime reemerge around the holiday. A lot of unsettled weather is indicated in the mid-latitude Pacific and the easiest way I can describe that is to call it an evil empire inversion. A natural result of this, among a few others is for some ridging to develop in western North America, providing us with our mechanism for a colder flow of weather. At face value, ensembles show normal temperatures across New England Christmas week. If we manage to split the flow, with jet energy in the Pacific undercutting that ridge in western North America, we can spin ourselves up a storm prior to the start of 2025.

Some snow Monday night is followed by a heavy rain event Wednesday

Mad River Glen has been on a roll, scoring a few inches of snow on nearly a daily basis over the past 5 days. This stretch of weather gets capped off with a final few inches of snow, all coming in a span of a few hours Monday evening. Even as warm air encompasses much of the eastern Great Lakes region, sub-freezing temperatures will remain entrenched across northern Vermont through early Tuesday. The snow Monday evening is of the front-end thump variety, as a wave of low pressure, passing to the region's south, marks the advance of the milder temperatures with an accompanying area of precipitation. Snowfall totals will be in the familiar 2-4 inch range and though it might fall as powdery snow, Tuesday's near freezing temperatures will make this consistency a little wetter. Much of Tuesday is precipitation free, but the mid-level temperature environment is expected to warm considerably even as surface temperatures hover around the freezing mark. By the end of the day, a stronger area of low pressure will organize over the southeastern United States and as this strengthening storm travels northward, much of the cold will  have been scoured out of interior New England. 

December has always been a tricky month for winter weather in New England. Even with favorable weather pattern, the proximity of all that relative Atlantic Ocean warmth leaves the region so vulnerable to the rogue inland runner and a big temperature surge. Such is very much the case with the rain event set to smack us in the face on Wednesday. The track of this storm isn't even that bad with the current expectation having the primary low track very close to us Wednesday evening. The lastest Euro, released right at the time of this update has the track of the low east of us over New Hampshire which would be good enough for a colder storm and some snow on the back end, yet mostly we would still be wet. The low pressure center in question begins to take shape across over the southeast early Tuesday and strengthens quickly over the Ohio Valley, continuing to intensify on its track toward northern New England. The fact that this storm will have not reached maturation upon its arrival opens the door for the northward push of low and mid level tropospheric warmth. Light rain or freezing rain in some areas begins Tuesday night and becomes a steadier and then heavier rain on Wednesday with temperatures gradually warming toward 40 degrees. Depending on the eventual track of the low, there is the potential for a brief but intense temperature spike for a few hours Wednesday evening. We might avoid this if the low pressure area tracks over New Hampshire, but either way, we won't avoid the heavy rain which will amount to well over an inch and then change to snow early Thursday before ending. Colder weather appears more intense Thursday and Friday with readings in the 20's on the former (with gusty winds) and perhaps only in the teens during the latter. Single digit readings are possible during each of the upcoming weekend mornings though wind is expected to subside and sunshine is expected for at least the Saturday portion. 

There is a nice looking cold air damming signature beginning to show its face on model simulations Sunday and this does indicate the possibility for an east coast winter storm. Whether or not the impact of such an event could reach far enough into northern Vermont is a tough question. I would call it unlikely right now but stay tuned. 

The longer range outlook which includes both next week and the following week continue to improve. The general consensus continues to point toward a milder period early next week but this milder weather has looked considerably less intense over time and there are no signs of rain of any significance. Multiple ensembles show colder air making a return late next week and likely consuming the region for solstice weekend. Though the ensembles aren't indicating a strong signal one way or another for Christmas week, I am very encouraged with the EPO which is again expected to turn very negative in two weeks time. This combined with a mildly negative AO favors colder and snowier conditions in New England. We've had the misfortune of many rainy Christmas weeks over the past several years. To say we are due for something better would be an understatement !

Mad River Glen opening brings 3-6 inches fo snow Saturday night into early Sunday

Much like it did when the 2023-2024 season closed several months ago, the weather intends to fully cooperate with the December 7th/8th opening and that includes some snow Saturday night that's taken me by surprise. Several days back, I had made mention of a second weekend clipper system bringing some weekend snow potential only to watch models almost entirely remove it from the weather map the next day. I've been doing this long enough that I try to leave myself some room to be wrong or to correct and this is one of those instances.  

The Mad River Glen opener appears to be a cloudy one with a dusting of new snow, temperatures well below the freezing mark and substantially less wind than Friday. The clipper system is back from the dead as a warm advection event. Snow from this should begin well after the ski day Saturda,y late in the evening and is set to continue until the Sunday ski day beings. Expect a powdery 3-6 inches but one should also expect temperatures to warm close to the freezing mark Sunday afternoon. I mean it sorta goes without saying in any snow event, but those looking for the coldest snow will find it early in the day.  Most of the ski day Sunday will turn out dry with some clearing later in the day assisting that milder push of weather. 

The Saturday night clipper is not the only turn in the short term outlook. Colder air is expected to battle for some interior New England presence early next week making the temperature outlook colder overall though we are still expecting a mixed bag of weather. Monday's temperatures are no longer in the 40's as chilly high pressure in Canada is expected to turn the flow more northeasterly by Monday. Precipitation on the front end of a big storm system near Lake Superior  will collide with the aforementioned area of cold setting the stage for a nice front-end thump situation Monday evening that includes some snow or at least a snow/sleet mixture. Ultimately, a stronger pressure center is expected to organize across the southeast US and bring more significant amounts of moisture and a warmer mid-level environment to Vermont, but I am no longer so convinced surface temperatures will be all that warm at any point next week. We could certainly get wet for a time and experience a period of above-freezing weather, but I am going to leave some room for more changes on this one. This has moved in a nice direction over the past 48 hours and its quite possible to score some points on the back end of this as colder air enters the forecast picture Wednesday night into Thursday. 

The longer range has some positive developments way out on the horizon but the progression appears similar to the last update. Colder weather follows the big storm system on Wednesday, and should temperatures well below the freezing mark on the mountain through Saturday December 14th. Ensembles continue to hammer away at us with a mild period between the 15th and 18th of the month. After that however, the EPO index is expected to drop again allowing for jet stream ridge to potentially reestablish itself over western North America which would allow for a colder outlook closer to the winter solstice.

Clipper to bring a nice dose of snow to the northern Vermont high country

Happy Sugarbush opening day and MRG opening for Saturday ! The recent stretch of cold weather accompanied by some snow helped all of the Vermont mountains make progress on snowmaking. The upcoming snowfall which will begin late Wednesday and continue sporadically through Thursday evening will also help and sets northern Vermont up well for what should a nice first full weekend of December. The snow is associated with a feisty clipper system which is projected to pass right along Vermont's Canadian border early Thursday. The fact that this storm is passing so far north does negatively impact our snowfall potential some and also slows the coastal strengthening many of these systems undergo. Ultimately, the storm will get pretty wound up near the Gulf of St Lawrence and will help a nice surge of arctic chill envelop the region late Thursday into Friday. 

As for the snow. much of it will be light and sporadic beginning Wednesday evening and persisting through a good part of Thursday. Clearly we are not in the best conveyor of moisture in this time frame and there will be intervals where snow is either very light or not falling at all. As the storm begins strengthening to our northeast and the flow turns west and then northwest, the snow will intensify and we should expect a few hours of occasionally heavy snowfall on the mountains Thursday evening. Given how warm Lake Champlain remains as of early December, the corridor from Sugarbush northward to Jay Peak could do extraordinarily well before the ski day Friday. As for the particulars on amounts, I am a bit pessimistic on snow totals Wednesday night and early Thursday when 1 to as much as 4 inches is the likely range depending on your elevation. I am optimistic on snow totals Thursday evening when 3 to as much an additional 10 inches is the likely range, again depending mostly on your elevation. Expect winds to increase late Thursday and become very blustery by early Friday. Winds chills will be well below zero with actual temps hovering in the low teens for much of the ski day. Wind gusts could reach 40 mph or more closer to summit areas. It will remain windy and cold through Saturday though with a bit more sun and a less intense wind before clouds and moderating temperatures return for Sunday.

Going forward, we continue to see an adverse trend in the weather pattern. I was pleased to see the various teleconnection indicators neutralize and indicate a potential return of colder weather as we approach the winter solstice, but ensembles are indicating two surges of milder weather over the next 12 days. The first of which comes Monday and though we may dodge the worst of this mild weather, we should anticipate a bit of mixed precipitation and rainfall in the early part of next week. Colder weather is expected to return between December 11th and 13th before another and potentially bigger surge of milder weather threatens us around the 14th and persisting through the 16th. Not at all atypical to get rather erratic weather conditions in December and I've come to expect it, but it has been strange that so many of our recent winters have had these great teaser weeks in late November or early December only to give way to milder weather on or before the holiday.

Some snowfall late Wedneday into Thursday as December comes in wintry !

Our mountains are a few days in and about a foot of snow deep into this early dose of winter. The longer range outlook took a less than favorable turn on us, but the upcoming week still appears to be a productive one. We've been in a tight range on temperatures with just enough clouds and wind to keep readings above 20 degrees during the nights while only rising a few degrees during the daylight hours. 

That mostly cloudy sky is expected to be with us through much of this wintry week. Lighter snow showers are expected to continue with minimal accumulation through Tuesday and our best chance for some blue sky might be on a chilly Wednesday morning. Clouds are then expected to then thicken again with light snow developing in the afternoon. This is an impressive looking clipper system that is poised to bring us this burst of snow, but I sure wish we could get this sucker do dig a little harder on its southeast trajectory. Still we appear to be in the favorable quadrant of what is commonly  referred to in meteorological parlance as the "jet max" and results after Thursday night should be pretty good. A period of steady snows appears very likely, as mentioned Wednesday night, but the best snow may come late Thursday into early Friday with a plume of Champlain enhanced moisture and a beautiful cold northwest flow to blow that moisture toward us. 2-4 inches seems most likely during the first period of light snow Wednesday evening and then 4-8 inches of more elevation sensitive snow late Thursday into Thursday night. A healthy burst of early season chill will accompany this later burst of snow and Friday's temperatures on the mountain are likely to stay in the teens. 

A second clipper system, weaker than its predecessor is expected to bring more clouds and some snow for Saturday and will help extend the stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. A little early to speak on snowfall expectations except to suggest it looks higher than zero and lower than 6. 

I've been operating under the assumption we would get another week of colder weather similar to the current one and though arctic air remains a significant part of the picture, the long wave pattern appears a bit different with cold expected to shift its focus westward. The biggest concern with this change relates to the possibility of an area of low pressure taking an inland route of bringing warmer weather and a spat of rainfall. There are a couple of different directions this could still go and models have been painting a variety of possible outcomes though the one early Monday appeared warmer unfortunately. 

Another round of sub-freezing temperatures is expected to follow whatever scenario happens early in the week before ensembles indicate another potential western North America jet amplification for the 2nd full weekend of December. Still some good news in that we are not going to lose the support of a more favorable Pacific jet stream. Additionally, ensembles indicate ridging over Alaska which should keep arctic air well-positioned to envelop much of Canada. We are way, way behind with Hudson Bay ice so far this cold season with less than 5 percent of that northern body of water showing ice cover as of December 1st. The Hudson Bay has been freezing later in recent years thanks to the impacts of climate change, but even with these headwinds, 20-30 percent of that 500,000 square mile region should have ice by now. The presence of arctic air should help reduce the open water over the next 2 weeks. 

Terrific early season weather pattern prevails through at least the middle of December !

Beautiful Thanksgiving snowfall in northern Vermont was scenic and brought us a step closer to opening day. It appears Sugarbush has a tentative opening planned for December 1st but I have no inside intel aside from what the website is showing except to say that favorable snowmaking conditions will continue for the upcoming week and beyond. 

The prevailing west flow encompassing both the eastern Great Lakes area and all of New England is a dry one for Vermont. The lake effect snow bands tend to ring themselves out over the Adirondacks and the moisture from Lake Champlain is typically deposited in areas from Stowe northward. The high country will remain sub-freezing atop our new found late November snow, but addional snow showers will be light through the weekend and I would extend this outlook through much of Monday. Temperatures on the mountain will stay within a 10 degree range of 15-25 and generally below 20 in summit locations through this time in spite of some limited sunshine. 

I've been looking for that flow to turn more northerly and tap into some of that relative warmth from Lake Champlain and the opportunity for that, though limited, appears on the forecast maps Monday evening into Tuesday. If we can get a few inches, it would be of the very powdery and fluffy variety accompanied by temperatures in the low 20's. Those wintry readings will continue into the later part of the week when a much more impressive looking clipper system brings us our next decent show at some significant snow late Wednesday into Thursday. This storm has the capability of attaining some additional strength as it interacts with the warm coastal waters of the Atlantic Ocean and this opens the door for some higher upside potential. A more significant chunk of early season arctic cold will then envelop Vermont on Friday and into the first full weekend of December. Daytime temperatures might fail to break 20 degrees either Friday, Saturday or both. 

The pattern overall appears supportive of colder weather for the first half of December thanks again to favorable jet stream conditions in the Pacific. The American Ensembles shift some of this colder weather westward around December 14th/15th. By contrast the European Ensembles manage to keep some of the ridging structure alive in western North America while the weakened Pacific jet conditions are shown to at least somewhat persist. Even the possibility that the colder could persist beyond the 15th would suggest one of the best December setups in years for Vermont ski country. 

8-14 inches for the Thanksgiving holiday and yes, not all the forecasts agree with this yet !

Our white Thanksgiving is on track and on target. Over the past 24 hours and especially in the last 8 of those hours, models have converged on a scenario only slightly different than the one I proposed a few days ago. If we allow for one more northward nudge, a foot of snow is likely for Mad River Glen and Sugarbush. The National Weather Service in Burlington does not totally agree with this thinking and the point and click forecasts for the Waitsfield covered bridge are indicating less than an inch of snow for Thursday with the same Thursday night. Though this would seem to indicate that us weather people are not on the same page, we aren't too far apart either. NWS has central and southern Vermont painted in a Winter Storm Watch and this extends as far north to southern Washington County, but not quite to Waitsfield or Warren. I wouldn't worry about it as I think they will make a more favorable adjustment before the end of the day. 

Snow should begin in the vicinity of 8 or 9 am on Thanksgiving and fall at a rather steady rate through late in the evening. This a a very garden variety Vermont snowstorm with a benign area of low pressure in the Ohio Valley gathering a bit of fuel on the Atlantic Coast and depositing a swath of snow across central New York and interior New England. The one adjustment I would make relates to the snow consistency. Temperatures do not support a powdery snow in valley locations and will be hovering around the freezing mark through much of the day. Readings will be closer to 30 degrees around 1,600 feet (MRG base) and 25-28 closer to the summits which does support a drier snow. The moral of this story is to prepare yourself for varying snow consistencies if you venture out. I continue to expect snow accumulations of 8-14 inches. The heaviest area of snow might be south of MRG but I expect at least a 4 inch snow as far north as Stowe so I am surprised how bearish the snowfall forecast from NWS looks for some of these areas in northern Vermont. Again, I would fully expect them to adjust  by the end of the day or early tomorrow. 

A pattern supporting a widespread area of below normal temperatures in eastern North America remains on target beginning this weekend and persisting through much of the first half of December. What a sight to behold watching the EPO crash deep into negative territory the way it has for the back half of this month. There are a lot of warm feedbacks that need to be dealt with stemming from the onslaught of warmth that has persisted through much of 2024. Much of eastern North America will be enveloped with colder weather for the next 20 days giving us the opportunity to neutralize much of this as we proceed to the core of the cold season. 

Divergent westerly flow in Vermont will give the region an opportunity for some sunshine both Friday and Saturday. Most of both days will be sub-freezing with the exception of the afternoons in valley areas. Over the mountains, light snow showers and flurries will be more prevalent though accumulations will be minimal and confined more to the snowbelt areas of New York state and Jay Peak which tends to do better with west or southwest flow. More clouds and a period of steadier snow are possible for Sunday as the flow turns north. Temperatures will then remain in the teens and 20's for the first week of December with snow possible from a weak clipper on Wednesday and perhaps a stronger one later in the week.

Thanksgiving snow and plenty of early season cold weather to follow through early December

 A beautiful early winter pattern stands directly in front of us as the thanksgiving holiday approaches. It's been a struggle in New England to sustain any type of below normal temperatures over the past year, but an excellent stretch of cold begins Tuesday evening thanks mostly to a very favorable EPO set up in the Pacific and some high lattitude blocking over the northeastern Eurasian continent. The best part of this story is the snowfall which comes in the form of a significant dose on Thanksgiving and this storm will give the whole region a very wintry feel that will extend well into December thanks to the pattern. 

A moisture-starved storm will bring some rain and mixed precipitation to much of Vermont as passes over the Ottawa River in Canada early on Tuesday. Some snow can be expected close to the Canadian border but not much south of that. Drier and colder air will then settle in Tuesday evening which will begin what we hope is a multi-week stretch of sub-freezing temperatures on the mountain. Such an occurrence isn't easily achievable in the middle of winter and is a special sort of challenge in early December. 

Our Thanksgiving storm gathers its moisture Wednesday over the Midwest and will continue to strengthen as it moves over the Ohio Valley during the evening. Models continue to jostle over the track which is a bit surprising at this stage in the game, but I feel very comfortable betting on the Euro output which places Vermont in one of the better areas for snowfall on Thursday. Northward shifts are always a good bet, but are especially likely to happen early in the season thanks to what is usually a weaker polar jet and thermodynamic feedbacks from the Great Lakes. This track, would place the storm just west of the New Hampshire seacoast for Thanksgiving dinner and then up through eastern Maine after that. A classic holiday snowfall would be the result, beginning early on Thursday and continuing well into the evening. The snowfall would be widespread, falling both over valley areas along with the high country with elevation impacting snow consistency more than anything else. Some mixing with sleet and or freezing rain is a very real possibility early Thursday evening. Those details need to be ironed out in a day or two. In the meantime we can establish some early snowfall expectations of 7-15 inches. Without the mixed precipitation threat, I would go higher, but I expect a powdery finish to this storm regardless with a chilly, wintry and snow showery Friday (even though the accumulating snow should remain closer to the Great Lakes). 

A weak mid latitude Pacific jet set up (synonymous with -EPO) will combine forces with the aforementioned high latitude blocking scheme with the trifecta support coming from ridging which is expected to develop in western North America over the next week. This means cold weather through December 10th that will undoubtedly be accompanied by additional chances for snow. Almost all early season cold setups produce snowfall in northern New England and I would fully expect multiple chances at some snowfall next week. Champlain enhancement will contribute as might a storm that models have yet to resolve. A very encouraging start to the season which will produce plenty of snow clover, snow showers and sub-freezing temperatures as Mikaela Shiffrin skis for her 100th win this weekend at Killington this weekend.

Winter Outlook 2024-2025 arrives just in time for a colder pattern change

2024 has been the year of persistent warmth and following 3 flooding events over the past 18 months, autumn suddenly turned very dry. We thus head into the upcoming winter in need of some precipitation of off all types to avoid running a further drought deficit.  Though they're a few encouraging signs out there in the outlook, one rather bad one looms over everything. In the mean time, the short range outlook appears very encouraging with snowfall in the forecast over the high country over the next 5 days and more snow and cold on the horizon around the Thanksgiving holiday and beyond. With that introduction, lets take the plunge into another season. 

Upcoming Snowfall 

Going to start by providing a brief outlook for the upcoming storm, a system that is certainly not atypical during the early or later part of the ski season and one that is very reminiscent of a few of the bigger events from last year. While low pressure is stalling out over southern Manitoba, there will be an extended opportunity to gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean which will give rise to a more robust coastal low pressure center late Wednesday. Rain will enhance and spread very slowly northward. When precipitation finally arrives midday Thursday, the deeper occluded low will swallow the coastal system allowing the already marginal temps in valley locations to warm a few more degrees and this means mostly a rain event in low lying areas (at least at for a while). Way up above 3,000 feet, precipitation is likely to fall as some wet snow late Thursday and continue through Thursday night but even at this elevation, temperatures are marginal and only support a few inches of very wet snow. Forecast models then are indicating a break in the action before an additional colder round of precipitation arrives for Friday night into Saturday. This should produce snow everywhere (even on the valley floor) though heavier snowfall amounts will remain confined to the high country and the more powdery snow should stay above 2500 feet. Still, the snowfall is expected to persistent at least intermittently through Sunday and where temperatures are the coldest, closest to the summits, snowfall should pile up modestly. By Sunday evening, expect 4-day totals of upwards of a foot while a 1-3 very wet inches can be expected near the valley floor. There is better dynamic support for heavy snowfall over the Catskills of New York and Pocono region of Pennsylvania on Friday. Much of this will melt early next week and should provide some needed drought relief to some very dry areas of the northeast. 

 

I have some deep concerns about the EPO this winter and the presence of the dreaded evil empire in the Pacific Ocean, but its not showing up in the outlook through the rest of November into early December. Quite the opposite is in fact, with a favorable jet stream in the Pacific, opening the door for stronger shots of cold weather and additional snowfall around the Thanksgiving holiday and into the first week of December. We discuss all this in subsequent posts. 

ENSO Outlook

In the meantime, lets start with discussing the ENSO situation for the winter. This is one key area where we are exceeding some of the more dire expectations earlier this year. Following last year's strong ENSO event which was approximately a +1.7 C El Nino, the exceptions of a nearly equally strong La Nina appeared to the prevailing view of those that both follow and prognosticate on ENSO. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the Pacific have certainly trended in that direction, but after tiptoeing into negative territory, sea surface temperatures have stabilized and have headed back to near neutral levels. This has defied conventional wisdom. The last forecast I read from the NOAA folks continued to predict a weak to moderate La Nina, but I have very little confidence in such an outcome and would favor a more neutral ENSO as a best guess for the winter at this point. 

We certainly could use all the help we can get from ENSO neutrality. Many of the coldest winters, especially since Y2K have occurred during these ENSO conditions including the 2002-03, 2003-04, 2013-14 and 2014-15 and some of the biggest torches have occurred during strong ENSO winters of either the El Nino or La Nina stripe - think 2011-2012 and 2015-16. Boy, I would love forecast a cold winter on this rationale and its certainty tempting to run with this as the medium range outlook continues to trend colder. I can't do it however and the following paragraphs detail as to why.

PDO Outlook

Those that have followed the blog might remember that I keep referencing this current adverse -PDO stretch we are in. 2018-2019 was the last relatively neutral PDO winter and was also the last time we had a complete freeze of Lake Champlain. Since then the PDO has become more and more negative with each successive winter. This past October, the PDO nearly set a record recording its second lowest October reading, -2.48. in a dataset spanning over 100 years and a top 10 lowest readings for any month. 

 

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO is an index that describes the configuration of sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitude Pacific. No, it is not the defining predictive indicator every year, but the continuous negative state keeps relative sea surface temperature warmth in the mid-latitude Pacific with relative sea surface temperature chill both in the higher latitude areas near the Bering Sea and near the Equatorial regions (which would power La Nina, if it were to ever occur). This type of configuration does not encourage the sustaining of favorable jet stream conditions in the Pacific and instead favors the tighter jet stream flow that has a propensity to repel the southward transport of arctic air. There is a nice illustration when comparing October SST's of this current year to those that prevailed before the last cold winter we had in 2018-2019. 1st map shown is 2018 October and the 2nd is the most recent October.

 

PDO indices are cyclic by nature and this current more adverse stretch will ultimately cycle into something else. The PDO is also a better (and certainly not perfect) predictor of temperatures as opposed to snowfall. For coastal areas of New England and the Mid-Atlantic another year without the more constant presence of arctic air is a good enough reason to predict another bad snow year, but many of these years end up being respectable across interior locations as has been the case over the last two seasons. 

Snow/Ice Expansion

The buildup of snow across the northern hemisphere is running about average. The October value came in at 18.88 millions of square kilometers which is right in the middle. The buildup of ice in the arctic is slow relative to average but it remains faster than 2016 and 2020. The arctic refreeze time continues to trend slower over the longer term and this IS a direct result of climate change. Every 5 years or so, there's a noticeably larger area of open water that needs to refreeze and the Hudson Bay, which remains 99 percent unfrozen as of this outlook, has open water later into December. 50 additional years with this trend will have a dramatic impact on the personality and climatology of our winters in particular. I hear the skeptics refer to some obscure prediction made a quarter century ago about ice in the arctic and how it was predicted to be ice-free by now. I never saw such predictions at the time, but the changes that have occurred have been dramatic enough and ultimately will lead to an ice-free arctic sometime before the next turn of the century or early in the next one. 

In the meantime ice and snow are building in the northern hemisphere in comparable fashion to what has taken place over the last 10 years and without El Nino to ravage the high latitudes, there should be a better expanse of arctic chill over Canada this year when compared to last. 

What is the weather telling us ? 

My atmospheric tells section is the part of the outlook where I go through the exercise of examining recent weather trends as a means of predicting the future. Undoubtedly there's been some distinctive traits to the recent weather conditions that will help guide us. 1) It has been persistently warm in Vermont. The last time we've had a below normal month was November of 2023, a year ago. The combined impact of the -PDO and climate change haven't helped in this regard but it would be hard to expect any change in this basic theme without help in the form of different forcing mechanisms in the Pacific . We are getting a bit of help from the neutralized ENSO and let's all hope it provides some material impact. 2) It's been very dry over the past 90 days. Southern New England had a historic flash flooding event back in August and Vermont had a similar such event in July. September, October and November have been extraordinarily dry and sunny most areas have not had an event with an inch or more of rain on a calendar day since August.

Digesting all this and comparing these recent observations to previous seasons points you to one similar year in particular - 1964. That autumn featured dry weather in New England, had a building weak La Nina and a negative PDO. Northern Vermont got sporadic bouts of extreme cold but was decidedly below normal on snowfall and Burlington, VT in particular saw one of the lowest seasonal snowfall totals of the last 100 years. Since MRG opened back in 1949, there's been two other bigger negative PDO spans and some of those winters had very good results for northern New England especially on the snowfall side. The last two winters, though certainly warmer than the 1950's or 1970's, saw respectable snowfall amounts, especially over the high country. The king of all negative PDO winters, 1955-1956 was a more respectable snow season and certainly a colder one winter overall.

The Outlook Summarized 

My outlook for upcoming winter shows considerable amount of respect for the near record autumn negative PDO values. I can conjure up some optimism on the snowfall side, and I'll conclude with that more upbeat sentiment, but I expect us to struggle sustaining colder weather in eastern North America. We will have to hope that the ENSO-neutral to weak La Nina setup can allow cold to encompass a greater expanse of southeast Canada and that some of this cold can continue to keep winter in place across northern Vermont even as areas farther south are struggling.  It's encouraging to see a looser Pacific jet stream set up in the medium range outlook and this should help get us closer to an opening in the near term, I just have concerns about whether such a pattern can sustain for more than 2 weeks. Over the course of the winter, temperatures are likely to be colder than what we experienced during the strong El Nino winter last year but should remain considerably above average. In t this case I would prognosticate 2-4 degrees F above this average over the 4 month stretch beginning in December. I am more optimistic on snowfall side, especially for the possibilities of an upside surprise. If I had to pick a range on snowfall I would choose the 150-175-inch sub-optimal total both recent and more distant -PDO winters have been more generous and I think another over-performance is very possible, especially relative to coastal areas. Lets hope the next few weeks get us off the ground figuratively and on the mountain literally. Enjoy the upcoming season !

 

The 2023-2024 winter, it's ups and downs and fairy tale ending !

What a crazy winter 2023-2024 evolved into. It was persistently warm after November, as many winters have been during this recent negative PDO cycle combined with the additional push in the background from the impacts of climate change. Unlike the 2015-2016 Super Nino debauchery, it was snowy and there were periods of deep snow cover on the mountains both early, middle and later part of the winter. It all culminated with the incredible resurgence of winter in March and early April. I apologize for the overuse of sports parlance in the blog, but has Vermont weather ever had a more clutch weather performance in the 75-year history of Mad River Glen than what occurred  in the first 8 days of April. The elusive April 2-foot snowstorm happens and then mostly clear skies for solar eclipse viewing was like hitting two grand slams in the same inning. I still have trouble believing it actually happened ! 

As expected, the strong El Nino was the most critical driving factor locally, nationally and globally. With the exception of Alaska, North America was warm as a whole and the area comprised of the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, Northern Plains and Central Canada was historically warm. Strong prevailing westerlies in the jet stream made it difficult for pools of arctic cold to build, expand and push southward. Clouds were very prevalent especially across the eastern U.S. and this acted as a blanket during the long overnights. Just quickly glancing through some daily weather data, it is very evident that clouds and warm overnight low temperatures statistically powered the milder than average temperatures throughout the winter over a broad area, New England included. 

For the purposes of a weather blog, I try and simplify things with nonacademic analysis (don't think i am capable of anything else anyway) and lots of context. With that mind, we can assess the strength of the recent El Nino with one number, a SST anomaly in a critical region of the equatorial Pacific. This came in at +1.69 C this past winter which makes it substantially weaker than the +2.28 C El Nino of 2015-2016.   We certainly know that the recent winter was a lot snowier than 2015-16, but it was only marginally colder by about 1.5 degrees F during the period beginning in November and ending in March. If you throw April in there the difference would certainly increase. Every significant El Nino brings global temperatures up and when added to the impacts of climate change, the warmth will set monthly land and sea temperature records and set off alarms and this certainly happened this winter. It is common for a healthy El Nino event to warm global temperatures by a very statistically significant quarter of a degree C. This allows the climate denialists to play their favorite game. Take a big El Nino from 30 years and compare it to a recent neutral ENSO winter and like magic, one can make our warming global temperatures disappear ! Climate change, by way of comparison is warming the earth by an estimated few hundredths of a degree C annually, which is scary, but still can very overpowered by a strong ENSO event, particularly an El Nino. 

A bigger distinction I have made regarding this recent El Nino was the state of the PDO. More typically, El Nino's are accompanied by a positive PDO state in the Pacific though it is not an especially dependable rule and there have been exceptions, this year being one of them. The -1.11 and -1.02 PDO that was posted in November and December respectively represents a PDO in a decisively negative state. As the winter progressed, that number weakened but remains slightly negative as of April and has been so now for every winter month dating back to December of 2019. The word decadal is used for a reason and the state of the PDO comes in streaks that can extend out to a decade in length. What makes the recent streak a little more unusual is the persistent negative strength of the PDO which finally weakened to -0.41 as of March, the weakest its been in any winter month since 2019. I bring this up because, I've been of the opinion that the PDO has made weather pattern life a little difficult in Vermont during both this and other recent winters. It has been difficult during this stretch to maintain a cold, wintry pattern for longer than 2 or 3 weeks and the El Nino further limited the reach of arctic chill across both North America and Europe. All that said, it was also my opinion that the PDO would provide us with an assist on snowfall and help guide storms in our direction at the expense of the coast. This turned out to be true and we ended with the warm and snowy winter that was advertised. 

So lets go through it ! November was one of the two months in 2023 that saw below normal temperatures, in Vermont. It also was a month that foreshadowed the personality of the forthcoming winter almost perfectly, especially the March and April section. Snow whitened the mountains initially on November 8th and a cold ensuing week kept that snow in place for several days before a mid-month mild surge melted it away. More snow and cold returned in the days before Thanksgiving and much of it survived through the holiday and weekend when Killington hosted the World Cup skiing events. Three significant elevation events got the lift service part of Vermont's ski season off the ground over the two weeks between November 26th and December 11th. I scored a good forecast over the National Weather service on the first one, Tim Kelley of Jay Peak owned me on the last one and the high country of northern Vermont was in amazing shape in terms of building an early season base. The first event on November 26th-27th resulted in widespread power outages, but the snow was mostly powdery above 2,500 feet. We saw this repeat on numerous occasional throughout the winter and especially during the spring. It was the most elevation sensitive snow year I've experienced in the 20 years of doing the blog. The 2nd event which begin on Sunday, December 3rd had better cold air support on the back end and modest snow though a little less than I had anticipated. The third event really too me by surprise as the pattern appears poised to turn mild by December 10th, but the storm in question managed to entrain enough cold while re-consolidate along the New England coastline. Rain turned to snow by Monday, December 11th and its often events such as those that really make you think the winter would serve up something special. 

 

Once again, just when it seems that nothing can go wrong, it all crashes to the ground. The weather pattern did indeed shift and arctic air went into retreat mode as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) turned very positive. I've lost count of how many iterations of this movie we have seen in Vermont.  An amazing week of weather in the early or middle part of December gives way to a lousy, rainy holiday. In this version, the rain came, way too early, fast, heavy and was accompanied by the ugly combination of wind and high dewpoints. The 2nd of two major flooding events in 2023 hit the state on Monday, December 18th. bringing local rivers above flood stage and causing more damage to low lying areas. Much of the snow melted away, though some did remain across the highest elevations. The holiday weather was dominated by clouds, rain, mild weather and some of the worst skiing of the season. The start of 2024 was to start almost from scratch though MRG managed to keep it going in limited capacity, throughout this very ugly stretch. 

Bridge St, Waitsfield - December 18, 2023

January of 2024 wasn't exactly an epic month, but was a nice bounce-back from the holiday. Jet stream blocking at high latitudes powered the AO and NAO well into negative territory for much of the first two thirds of the month and arctic air became a significant part of the weather picture during that stretch. Garden variety cold early in the month set the stage for a nice dry snowfall on the first Sunday of 2024. I had higher hopes for the subsequent storm around the time of January 10th and 11th, a really juicy southern streamer that was consistently predicted to track toward the Great Lakes and bring a surge of milder temperatures and rainfall. I recall thinking that the downstream blocking would ultimately win the day and possibly turn this event into a big snow producer. The southward shift never materialized really but the snow fell anyway, a heavy base building event that exceeded even my lofty expectations. Another snow/sleet conglomeration early on the MLK holiday weekend added more density to an already hefty snowpack ahead of what would be the coldest period of the year. 

The arctic outbreak in the middle of January generated a lot of news and was especially intense over the western high plains and then the central plains and Texas. It brought -10 degree temperatures to Kansas City for a NFL playoff game, but the coldest temperatures recorded in the MRV were in the vicinity of -5 that week which marked the coldest readings of the season. That is the warmest "coldest day of the winter" I can remember and a more rigorous academic analysis might show that the 2024 winter featured the least amount of extreme cold in recorded history in Vermont. Still, the week beginning January 15th was chilly and snowy with snow squalls finally giving skiers some dry more skiable friendly snow. Arctic air went into retreat mode beginning January 22nd but we still managed to squeeze out some winter weather over the last 8 days of the month including some mixed precipitation around the 25th and some snowfall on the last Sunday of January. 

February was a very different kind of month relative to the other winter months in 2023-2024. It was mild much like December but also very dry unlike December. Most of Vermont, even the mountains, saw less than an inch of melted precipitation which is way below average. The dominant weather feature was a jet stream ridge, a very large one, that established itself not far far from the same area that received the arctic cold. The result was a blow torch across the central part of the North American continent with excessive temperatures stretching well into Canada on multiple occasions. The torching wasn't centered over Vermont so although it was milder month, we managed to avoid a total scouring of our snow pack. There were several instances where the torching enveloped all of upstate New York and the Adirondacks, making it as far east as the Champlain Valley only to stop at the Long Trail. This happened on 2 days early and then again later in the month. All that said, it was a quiet month from the standpoint of storminess and this allowed for more sunny days and better visibility following a brutally cloudy December and January. 

I can recall two moments when both the weather conditions and projected weather pattern going forward appeared especially bleak. The first was the December 18th flooding since that event was coupled with the realization that another Christmas holiday was going to be mild, damp and dreary. The 2nd and an even worse moment came during the back half of February. Though colder weather and a bit of new snow finally buried the crust, the EPO index surged in later February and forced any arctic air back into retreat mode while providing western ski areas with a barrage of storminess. With less than 2 feet of snowfall in February, and mild air melting much of that during the last  6 days of the month, winter 2024 appeared poised fade out altogether by early March when more mild weather was expected to arrive. Indeed, the torching in the Midwest was relentless with 70-degree temperatures surging into the Great Lakes on multiple occasions. Once again, that mild air would push eastward into the Champlain Valley and then abruptly weakened before crossing the Long Trail. It was an ugly scene around March 8th with, only limited terrain surviving at MRG, but the weather pattern took a dramatic and surprising March turn as split flow emerged in the jet stream overall while a storm system manage to defy the conventional wisdom of what typically happens with such an energetic Pacific Jet Stream 

The Monday March 11th event was probably the best of the season and it also marked the beginning of an incredible late season 4-week stretch. Though it didn't quite land on the  Ides of March storm, the 30 inch snow on March 11th was yet another season saving event and one that followed a miserable stretch of weather. The initial storm took shape while all of New England was enveloped in mild air and this event would have brought more rain were it not for the ability of robust southern branch energy  in the jet stream to re-consolidate the storm over the Mid Atlantic. Cold air was limited but the newly energized coastal system managed to suck enough cold air to create a powdery event for the northern Green Mountains. It was the first of many very elevation sensitive events over this stretch with only a few gloppy inches falling in the Champlain Valley. 

 

Following a succession of more spring-like day prior to St Patrick's Day, the weather pattern turned cold as blocking reemerged at high latitudes, mainly over upstream areas of Alaska and portions of the Arctic this time. Both Sugarbush and Mad River Glen were hit with snow squalls on multiple days beginning on the 19th. It was fascinating weather actually because any snow that fell in valley locations would melt with a few hours of partial sunshine while the snowfall continued to pile up over the mountains with fresh powder on a ski succession of days. A reinforcing shot of even colder air enveloped northern New England appropriately on the first day of spring. This was timed perfectly with an incoming weather system that produced widespread snow for the entire state of Vermont on Saturday March 23rd. This was probably the least elevation sensitive event of the season and one of the coldest with over a foot of snow falling at MRG atop the powder that fell during the week.

The receding El Nino and weakening PDO certainly seemed to help revive an ailing winter season, but who was to expect what was to happen on the first full week of April. It's hard to get Vermont weather to cooperate fully in any season and the only good bet for April typically is clouds and mud. After a pretty innocuous start of the month on the 1st and 2nd, with afternoon temperatures approaching 50, colder arctic air moved south out ahead of a big approaching late-season winter storm. Like many of our bigger snow producers, a good snowfall was contingent on a strong low pressure area located over Lake Michigan, transferring energy to an ideal coastal position and then having that storm lead us to glory. There were some questions as to how efficiently that transfer would take place but it all worked out in the end with heavy snow falling on April 4th while conditions continued to turn colder as snowfall piled up. The snow over performed on the front-end but disappointed a little on the back end with snow showers confined to the Adirondacks at the expense of the northern Green Mountains. Still, the elusive April storm was in the bag and the snow was deep from top to bottom, albeit a little dense at the bottom. 

Like magic, clouds vanished on Sunday April 7th making for a beautiful spring day of skiing atop almost two feet of new snow. Clear skies continued for the big day on April 8th and the scattered high cirrus clouds remained scattered creating a near perfect situation for the solar eclipse. Lots of corn snow, terrific visibility and afternoon temperatures in excess of 50. Just an incredible stretch of weather in what is typically not a very incredible time of the year. Clutch !  

 

The season concluded with well over 200 inches of snow at most of the northern Vermont resorts and well over 300 inches at Jay. What stands out more about the 2023-2024 winter was the elevation sensitivity of most of the snow. Burlington which serves as the most reliable first order station in the state recorded 61 inches of snow, well below the normal 87 inches. Meanwhile, the Mt Mansfield snow stake peaked well above average, recording a depth of over 90 inches prior to the April 8th solar eclipse. Warmth centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes/central Canada region and even stronger warmth across western Europe was another major headline. The strong El Nino is a known contributer to high latitude warmth while climate change continues to push land and sea temperatures higher. With all these warm weather headlines, it might seem as if it wasn't cold anywhere in the world and that's not quite true. Portions of Scandinavia had a cold winter while eastern areas of the Eurasian Continent saw multiple outbreaks of brutally cold air. I bring this up because SST forcing in the Pacific, stemming somewhat from the state of the PDO has been very unfavorable for North American cold in recent winters. I was encouraged to see the PDO index weaken over the past few months and hope we can go into next season in a more neutralized state. The extremely positive PDO values have been a consistent theme over the last several winters and when added to the headwinds of climate change and a big ENSO year (in any direction) attaining sustainable cold weather is challenging. With that, I can sign off for the 2023-2024 winter. Hope everyone enjoys the summer weather and returns to MRG in good health for another good ski season in 2024-2025 ! 

Snow showers will continue with a final round Saturday afternoon while Monday weather continues to appear outstanding

It never sat right with me that Mad River Glen hadn't recorded the two-foot April storm that seem to occur so frequently in March. Climatologically speaking, it feels like something that should happen once or twice a decade and yet it hasn't in the 20 years I've been doing this, that is until the last two days. It's a challenge to overcome the power of the April sun angle, which, even with temperatures remaining below freezing on the mountain, managed to make for some wetter snow conditions below 2,500 feet. I thought we might perform better Friday with the snow shower machine, but the disorganized remnants of our recent storm's moist conveyor targeted the Adirondacks and only grazed parts of the Green Mountains. Still this is expected to continue for a time Friday night, break for a bit early Saturday and then more snow showers, some heavy, appear likely Saturday afternoon. Temperatures on Saturday will behave much as they did Friday. Sunday is expected to be a little warmer with the snow having departed and sunshine making a late day appearance. When will the corn show up ? That typically happens after the wet snow gets a chance to freeze with a chilly overnight and subsequently softens to corn with a warm day. Very good chance that happens on Monday, but parts of the mountain could see that on Sunday as well. 

Solar eclipse Monday just looks outstanding and we are almost figuratively and literally in the clear. 25-30 degree temperatures in the morning will become 50-55 degree temperatures during the afternoon and almost 60 in valley locations. We should see clear blue skies in the morning and light winds. 3 computer simulations and one package of statistical guidance suggests that sunshine continues through evening. 1 computer model simulations brings a thin layer of high cloudiness to Vermont Monday afternoon. Not every run of this European model has suggested this outcome, but it was suggested Friday afternoon so I don't want to mislead the reader and guarantee good viewing. The potential clouds are the innocuous high cirrus kind, blowing off the top of a rainy weather system in Wisconsin. They would have to power jet stream ridge to our west which doesn't seem likely to me yet weather will always manage to suprise you. 

Following our eclipse day we will take another big step into spring. Cool high pressure will slip in from for the north after Tuesday, putting a stop to the 50-60 degree weather. That said, we are looking at a lot of above freezing temperatures and a surge of warmth and potentially heavy rain Thursday night into Friday (April 11-12). We will have to keep an eye on this one for flooding because the mountains have some deep late season snow pack and this system late next week is capable of bringing high winds and higher dewpoints with it. Cooler weather is being advertised on the ensembles after April 13 and that should include some below freezing overnights even if our days continue to see a mix of 40's and 50's. 

Total accumulations appear lower for the northern Vermont high country, but hard to complain about 20-40 inches and a promising solar eclipse outlook !

Our April winter storm forecast is in need of an update and our solar eclipse forecast always needs attention and I will work to provide both. Not sure there has ever been a period in early April where weather intel is in such high demand in Vermont. 

Our storm has been coming together early Wednesday as is expected to track in between Cape Cod and Boston Thursday evening. That's a damn good trajectory for any winter storm and when this is combined with the expected slow speed of this weather system, snow totals in the northern Vermont high country continue to have an extraordinary ceiling. All that good stuff said, some complicating issues have emerged to keep the loftiest of my expectations in check. 

The first concern is a tiny warm layer that high resolution models are projecting will impact precipitation type Wednesday evening. The layer of above freezing is way up above 10,000 feet and it remains pretty small, small enough in fact that the snow could fall right through it so long as its falling at a decent rate. This feature is only present for a small part of the storm and is expected to be gone by around midnight Thursday. Snow, sleet and near 32 degree temperatures will allow for a messy few inches of base layer accumulations before snow begins falling heavily early Thursday morning with temperatures dropping into the high 20's. The snow is expected to continue for much of the day Thursday, falling heavily at times with gusty northeast winds. The base layer of sleet with drier snow falling on top should be pretty ideal for afternoon skiing. 

The 2nd concern is less concern and more of a limiting factor. The initial Great Lakes low proved to be a formidable storm and is expected to compete with the slow moving coastal low for dominance Thursday and Thursday night. Ultimately we continue to expect a consolidated system to take shape, albeit an occluded one, in the Gulf of Maine Friday, but this process is now expected to take a little longer than I initially anticipated. With the remnants of the initial low pressure area expected to slowly sag southeast over Pennsylvania Thursday, the storm will have a more elongated shape and this makes me a little nervous about any assumption that we will just sit in the moist conveyor for two days and easily procure 50 inches. Regardless, I still have some very optimistic assumptions and continue to think that we sit in an ideal area for continuous elevation snowfall Thursday night, Friday and early Saturday. The sleet Wednesday evening combined with some less giddy expectations Thursday night, Friday and Saturday lower my total snowfall accumulations yet this remains the best snow event I've seen in April in the 20 years of doing this. 

Snow Outlook 

Wednesday evening/night valley: Snow/sleet 3-6 dense accumulation by morning

Wednesday evening night mountains: Snow/sleet 4-8 dense accumulation by morning

Thursday day valley: Occasional snow with 3-6 wet inches

Thursday day mountain: Snow, sometimes heavy, drier accumulation above 2,500 feet 6-12 inches

Thursday night valley: Occasional snow 1-2 inches

Thursday night mountain: Occasional snow 3-6 inches 

Friday day valley: Periodic snow showers as existing snow melts. Not much accumulation

Friday day mountains: Occasional snow with another 3-6 inches and powdery above 2,500 feet

Friday night into Saturday valley: Flurries and snow showers, just a light accumulation. 

Friday night into Saturday mountains: Snow Showers and another 4-8 inches. 

Totals: 

Valley areas: Snow/sleet late Wednesday, thump snow early Thursday and snow melt Friday and Saturday even as mountains continue to add to totals. 8-16" expected total

Mountains: Snow/sleet early, more powdery above 2,500 feet Thursday, Friday and into early Saturday with 20-40" expected over the 3-4 days.

Solar eclipse Monday still looks pretty good. Sunshine is expected to return for Sunday and clear skies Sunday night should allow temperatures to dip into the 20's Monday morning. The morning hours on the 8th are expected to be nearly cloudless. During the afternoon hours there's some risk that a decaying area of clouds can have a presence but a total overcast appears unlikely. It looks like an outstanding for outdoor activities with temperatures in the low 50's and low winds.

Over 30 inches of high elevation snow Wednesday through early Saturday and a high risk of sunshine on April 8

When it comes to April weather conditions in Vermont, I usually don't get a chance to say a lot of nice things. Snow-melt, mud, clouds, wind, low visibility and sometimes a combination of all 5 are often a major part of our outlook. With that in mind, I will put out the disclaimer that this particular forecast is no April Fool's joke and might be the best I have given for any part of Vermont during this slog of a spring month. There's a lot at stake with our late-blooming ski season still going strong and a full solar eclipse expected on April 8th, but we appear to be ready with our A-game so lets go ! 

Our upcoming winter storm has moved out into the central plains Monday. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is feeding a strengthening low pressure area as it makes its initial push toward the western Great Lakes by Tuesday. This primary low pressure area is formidable and will bring both wind and accumulating snow to much of Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday night. Meanwhile, cold dry is in the process of wedging itself underneath a Davis Strait jet stream block. This key feature will help ultimately reconfigure the weather map in a very winter-friendly way for northern Vermont. The initial Great Lakes low pressure area will occlude and a new coastal low quickly intensify somewhere in the vicinity of the Delaware Bay by Wednesday and proceed northeastward from there. Snow will develop by midday Wednesday and be heavy enough to accumulate, even below 1,000 feet. 

I don't want to kid myself or the reader. Early April is early April and multiple feet of powdery snow in the river valleys is a very difficult ask. Wet snowfall will be substantial however and could again bring with it some power outage risk  during the "thump" portion of this upcoming storm late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Higher elevations will also see wetter snowfall late on Wednesday, but conditions appear to be cold enough at high elevations first and lower basebox elevations later to support a drier snowfall, especially as it gets darker Wednesday evening. Accumulations will be substantial in this early portion of the storm, exceeding a foot on the mountains and reaching the 6-12 category in lower elevations.

Late Wednesday is just the beginning. The elevation sensitive and colder part of our programming begins Thursday and it is an impressive setup. The coastal low near Cape Cod will continue to push northeast, but at a very, very low speed. This will allow the upper air support and decayed occluded Midwest low to catch up and allow for a more consolidated east coast storm by midday Thursday. Even as valley locations continue to see occasional bursts of wet snowfall with above-freezing temperatures, the mountains will be receiving heavier, even drier snowfall with colder temperatures. Valley areas are unlikely to see more than a foot of snow on the ground at any point during the storm even as snowfall amounts approach 2 feet at and above 3000 feet by late Thursday. Furthermore, the very slow-footed personality of this storm will allow snowfall to keep going and going. Thursday night, Friday, Friday night into early Saturday the snow will continue to fall, finally tapering off with some sun potentially returning for late Saturday which is just incredible. Snowfall, which again, is unlikely to ever produce a snow cover of more than a foot in valley areas, is likely to exceed 30 inches at 3,000 feet with much of it relatively dry and falling over a span of 3 days. As one ski's toward the base on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, snow consistency is certainly subject to change, but I don't expect temperatures on the upper mountain to reach above-freezing levels in a material way until Sunday. Here is my more detailed view of snow accumulations with valley locations defined as areas as areas near the Waitsfield covered bridge and mountains defined as areas around 3,000 feet. I'll leave it to the reader to extrapolate on the in-between. 

Snow Outlook 

Wednesday afternoon valley: Late Day snow wet 2-4 " 

Wednesday afternoon mountain: Late Day snow wet 3-6" 

Wednesday night valley: Thump wet 4-8" 

Wednesday night mountain: Thump powder/some wet 6-12" 

Thursday day valley: Occasional snow 1-3" wet inches with melting

Thursday day mountain: Snow, sometimes heavy and a more powdery 6-12" 

Thursday night valley: Occasional snow 1-3 wet inches 

Thursday night mountain:Snow, sometimes heavy and a more powdery 6-12" 

Friday day valley: Snow showers, little to no accumulations, melting and mud 

Friday day mountains: Snow showers, sometimes heavy and a more powdery 3-6" 

Friday night into Saturday valley: Flurries and snow showers, just a light accumulation. 

Friday night into Saturday mountains: Snow Showers and another 3-6 inches. 

Totals: 

Valley areas a very wet 8-16 with never more than a foot on the ground 

Mountains: Some wet snow early, more powder Thursday, Friday and into early Saturday with 27-54 inches.

And I won't neglect the promising solar eclipse outlook for April 8. We are checking a lot of the right boxes, the most important of which is a well defined jet stream ridge axis that is setting up to our west. The conglomeration of clouds and unsettled weather is finally expected to push off shore by Sunday allowing for a nearly full day of sunshine and warmer afternoon temperatures. Monday has the potential to be even better atop some deep snow cover across the high country. Temperatures on Monday should approach 50 and exceed that in valley areas with plenty of sunshine to start the day. My only concern is the lack of unsettled weather in the south which does keep the door open a tad for a pesky jet disturbance to bring some scattered cloudiness to northern New England during the afternoon. If I had to forecast cloudcover in percentages (with 100 percent being overcast) right now, I would put Monday at no more than 30 percent which is pretty darn good this time of the year. I would rather be us than areas in the path of the solar eclipse to our south and west. 

Major early April snow event is very possible during the middle part of next week !

The doubters were out there on social media and the declarations were made. To be fair some of them covered regions that are farther south or closer to the coast and that's fine. At least up in our neck of skiable woods, winter is most certainly not over and the prevailing weather pattern continues to consist of a large blocking feature centered over the Davis Strait and this feature is actually expected to strengthen over the next 5 days and support what could be a sizeable early April winter weather event in northern Vermont. More on that in a minute ! 

Our upcoming holiday Easter weekend is a quiet one in the meantime.Clouds give way to some sunshine for Friday with some strong northwest winds. These winds will diminish somewhat on Saturday while a weak weather impulse manages to focus clouds and precipitation far enough to our south to allow for some sunshine on Saturday. Easter Sunday will feature sunshine in valley locations but more clouds and snow flurries over the high country. All three days will feature some above freezing temperatures during the day, sub-freezing temperatures during the night and only a minimal amount of snow melt thanks to dry air. Enjoy our periods of sun because the upcoming week following Easter promises to be a cloudy one. 

Cold air over the arctic and across Canada has weakened as it always does by late March into April, but what's left is expected to establish a presence in Vermont Sunday night and remain  in place through much of the week. A large low pressure area is expected to emerge out of the eastern Rockies on Monday. It is assuredly going to create outbreaks of severe weather in the early part of next week in the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east. The storm is on a collision course with the Great Lakes and New England and the Davis Straight blocking is keeping us in play for a major winter weather event even as temperatures continue to rise above freezing during the day Monday and Tuesday following more sub-freezing nights.  Lots of particulars need to be sorted and details will evolve gradually yet there are early indications of precipitation beginning in the back half of  Tuesday as snow or mixed precipitation. The storm is expected to slow in speed while intensifying near the New England coastline. It's a classic New England  hang on to your hang-ups scenario and presents ski country (at least the one we care about) with amazing possibilities late Wednesday into Thursday, perhaps one of the best April snow events in recent memory. It's still early in this forecasting game and things do tend to to change, shift, evolve and so forth so we should expect that, but stay tuned and don't put your ski's away ! 

Even more encouraging news relates to the cloud cover. As cloudy as the first week in April appears, a more promising picture is starting to emerge for the first full weekend in April and most importantly April 8. The ideal scenario for minimal cloud cover for early spring Vermont is for northwest flow aloft at jet stream level with more potent areas of unsettled weather well south and east of us. That is somewhat of the picture being drawn in the varying ensemble packages though its always close. Certainly there is a stronger signal for a high pressure area to clear the cloudiness away for April 7th and we can only hope that continues into April 8th as well. 

More snow is "possible" Thursday night into Friday as cooler weather pattern expected to prevail through our solar eclipse day of April 8

Deep snow now covers all of the northern Vermont high country and I had anticipated a relatively tranquil more spring-like week including some warm afternoons and not more than one day with some light precipitation. Some of what was described continues to be a part of the current weather picture, but I would describe the outlook as a whole as being cooler and more unsettled and this includes additional chances for snowfall across the mountains. 

The deep snow cover has brought some chilly nights to Vermont. Readings fell to the single numbers Monday morning and are expected to fall into the teens once again early on Tuesday morning before southerly winds power readings back into the 40's in spite of more cloudiness during the ski day.  These clouds will keep readings warmer Tuesday night and also prevent temperatures from rising beyond the 40's on Wednesday as our next storm system begins to take shape. Moisture from this initially disorganized storm will stream northward and bring some occasional light rain to Vermont during the day, before moving eastward toward the coastline Wednesday night. This general outcome has been the consensus expectation for a few days now, but recent models are suggesting that the coastal low pressure center will strengthen more dramatically, attain a negative tilt  and position itself near Cape Cod Thursday night. If this trend continues we will see more rain on Thursday with that rain changing to snowfall Thursday night into Friday. I've yet to see enough conclusive confirmation of this change in the outlook to suggest another significant snowfall is likely, but it certainly has my attention and another elevation sensitive snowfall is certainly a slight possibility before the last full weekend of March. 

The aforementioned last full weekend in March looks cool with sub-freezing nights and only slightly above freezing days on the mountain and this general theme is expected to continue through much of the first full week in April.  The week also appears unsettled with at least one opportunity for mixed precipitation or snow (likely Monday or Tuesday). I see no opportunity through April 5th where readings will climb above 50 on the mountain and several are likely to stay below 40. 

 The time has also come for some early April 8th prognostications. It will be around that time when the focal point for cool, unsettled weather is expected to shift offshore yet there remains some lingering ridging in the Davis Strait region and forcing in the Pacific continues to favor cooler weather in mid-latitude weather more generally. I am pretty convinced that the ski season will be alive and well in the MRV with deep snow pack prevailing above 2,000 feet and more patchy snow cover enduring below that. If we can achieve some northwest flow at jet stream level, a real possibility if we can push the unsettled weather off the coast, we really improve our prospects for a clearer sky.