Our local NBC affiliate suggested that Lake Champlain was 99 percent frozen as of February 9th and I didn't visually spot any open water from the top of Stark Mountain on the early part of a bluebird Tuesday. One easy way to calibrate the intensity of a cold year is to simply observe the amount of land mines a skier as to dodge at the bottom of Lower A at MRG. If there are none, such as now, Lake Champlain is probably close to or entirely frozen. Freezing the "Sixth Great Lake" is challenging because of its depth and significant since it eliminates a source of moisture that contributes to our seasonal snowfall. The additional snowfall we are expecting Wednesday and Wednesday night will in fact be held down because of the aforementioned ice. There are positive byproducts to freezing this local body of water however and this will come in handy next week when fending off the milder pushes of air that are currently being forecast.
Tuesday night snowfall came in successfully and light snowfall on Wednesday and Wednesday night should add 1-3 inches to that total. Temperatures might even get close to the freezing mark in valley locations though this is not expected on the mountain. Conditions are actually expected to turn blustery again by later Wednesday and continue into early Thursday with daytime temperatures closer to 20. We should get some clearing late on Thursday setting us up for a magnificent bluebird Friday with low wind speeds and temperatures recovering to 20 degrees from a morning low of zero.
Wind and cold have dominated each of the last 3 weekends at MRG and while the upcoming holiday weekend won't exactly be tropical, it will be a lot more comfortable. We can expect some cold morning temperatures both Saturday and Sunday but reasonable daytime conditions with 20's expected Saturday and near 30 on Sunday. Saturday is a little blustery with some snow showers and Sunday appears more likely to feature some sunshine and less wind. Yes, the potential Monday, President's Day storm continues to show up on model simulations and most of those simulations take this system to our south. There's been enough disagreement on the eventual result to keep watch, but I am not of the belief this system is for us. Never say never in this business unless you really mean it and I haven't yet reached that point.
For the first time since the middle January, northern Vermont will have to fend off a serious push of milder weather for the middle of the week. Milder than average temperatures should prevail for the entirety of the week, but Monday and Tuesday both appear innocuous. We have what we think will just be some clouds for Monday and temperatures in the high 20's followed by the same for Tuesday with readings crossing the 30-degree mark. Clouds are usually a very prominent part of New England weather when milder air attempts to scour the cold out and next week is no exception. It's the precipitation and wind we worry about in this case and a wintry mix or rain is certainly possible Wednesday, Thursday or both. This does not appear to be a storm destined to track way into Quebec however and I have a funny feeling this isn't over. Would not at all surprise me to see a trend where the cold in Vermont is able to hold it's ground and some type of snow is introduced into the forecast along with the wintry mix.
Ensembles are indicating the reemergence of some upstream blocking in the jet stream for the final week of February. This will push arctic air back toward North America to some degree during this time frame. In this case, the blocking is forecast to set up over northeast Russia near the East Siberian Sea and will send the cold toward western North America first. The Great Lakes and New England could see a piece of this action and some accompanying winter weather though I would not expect the return of bitterly cold temperatures. The door will still be open for an inland runner type storm in this pattern.
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