Vermont misses out on most of Friday's action but pattern looks very supportive for more cold and snow for at least the next two weeks

 Recent model data has indeed shifted the track of Friday's storm north and west but it's a simple case of too little too late. It assures coastal areas will see a decent snowfall including more snowfall in parts of the Mid-Atlantic but northern Vermont will only see a period of light snowfall and accumulations of an inch or two with the "two" more likely across the high country. This might be a decent setup for some terrain enhanced snowfall but an organized storm off the coast has the effect minimizing such activity in the outer periphery. It's more bad luck for interior New England but the pattern through mid January continues to look fundamentally wintry and supportive for more chances at natural snow. 

Saturday appears to be a beautiful January day with increasing amounts of sunshine (after some morning flurries) and excellent visibility. It will be cold and blustery for a while (near 15 degrees for actual temps) but this is nothing we aren't used to. Clouds make a return for Sunday and winds will turn southwesterly and increase in speed but temperatures are not expected to be especially mild and are only expected to reach or exceed the freezing mark in valley locations. Precipitation is likely on Sunday but not a lot is expected and temperature profiles suggest snow as precipitation type although it remains close enough to keep watching. 

We haven't enjoyed a real old fashioned New England blast of cold in a while and with the slower than average Hudson Bay freeze, we had to wait a bit this winter but it's coming behind a cold front on Monday. We can expect flurries, snow showers and maybe a snow squall during the day and then temperatures plummet well below zero Monday night. Temperatures around the Mt Washington elevation appear to be about -30 C  or -22 F which is pretty impressive, even for them. That bitterly cold, stable arctic environment sets up Vermont for a bluebird day on Tuesday but temperatures across the high country are likely to stay sub-zero through the ski day. 

Temperatures will moderate during the day Wednesday and again on Thursday and that process should open the door for a snowfall though its a bit early for specific timing and potential amounts. We then expect the pattern to re-amplify for the weekend of January 15th and 16th thanks to the building +PNA pattern (western North America jet stream ridge). To reiterate from the last update, this marks a big change since the PNA has returned a negative observed index since December 1 leading to the barrage of rain, snow and cold on the west coast. More importantly for us is the improving signal for an east coast storm around the aforementioned weekend.  Can't make any guarantees about big snow but this is likely going to be the next focal point for storm speculation.  It's also MLK weekend and based on a litany of historical results (and absolutely no science) we always seem to break out of snow droughts on this particular holiday. 

Ensembles indicate a nice signature that the ridge across western North America will extend to the pole and allow arctic air flood much of eastern and central North America. The trough axis slightly east of the Mississippi River valley makes the east coast a lightning rod for storm activity although one component we appear to be missing (both with Friday's storm and over the next two weeks) is a negative NAO and this often means weather systems are more quick hitting and have the available escape hatch to the open Atlantic. Still a pattern I would gladly sign up for over many others !

Pattern supports mostly cold weather through mid-January but models have shifted Friday storm farther south and east

 We have a decent January weather pattern in front of us with plenty of cold weather. The big block in the Chukchi Sea (above the Bering Sea) is close to peaking and is the mechanism forcing arctic air southward and over a more expansive area of North America. Meanwhile the Pacific is is expected to remain mostly cooperative marking a big change from prevailing conditions over recent winters. I am not yet convinced it will stay this way for the duration of the winter but I'll take what I can get and wait, like the rest of us, for this weather pattern to pay us some real dividends in the form of natural snow. 

Though the surge of milder temperature will mostly fail to bring temperatures significantly above freezing Wednesday, there is a small amount of moisture expected to skim the state and bring some mixed precipitation (snow or freezing rain) for a few hours in the afternoon. Readings will fall back into the 20's Thursday as we await the gradual formation  and approach of our fast-moving late week winter storm. Over the last few days, model data has shifted the storm south and east out over the ocean and east of Cape Cod. Much of the heaviest snow in such a scenario would be confined to coastal areas. All that said, I expect models to begin showing a more amplified system and to shift the track further north and west over the next 48 hours. It is just very difficult to predict how much and whether this turns out to be the critical difference in bringing at least some heavy snowfall to northern Vermont. As mentioned in the last post, the very warm water along the Mid Atlantic and New England coastline is capable of making a big and last minute impact on the forecast and eventual track of this storm. Within the next day or two, we will find out whether this will play out as such. Either way, this is a fast moving storm with a another New England forecaster calling it a "thump, dump and run" situation (got to give @eweather credit for that one). The snow if it happens, will be tapering too snow showers and flurries by later Friday with clearing expected by Saturday. 

In addition to the potential storm, the forecast over the next week will consist of rapidly changing weather with almost every day featuring differences from its respective yesterday. Saturday will be cold (teens) and begin blustery with flurries and calmer with sunshine. Sunday will cloudier and not nearly as chilly with temperatures approaching the freezing mark. There's moisture accompanying the big surge of milder temperatures on Sunday and this means the chances for rain and freezing rain will increase as the day progresses. Whatever does fall late this weekend will make another quick exit as a strong surge of arctic cold will take it's biggest swing at New England so far this winter. Temperatures will begin to fall Monday, a day likely to feature snow showers and maybe a snows squall ahead of a boundary of very intense chill. Much of Tuesday will feature readings in the single numbers while Tuesday night features readings of close to 10 below. 

As next week continues to progress, we can expect some of the most intense cold to retreat into eastern Canada temporarily. At the same time, the overall weather pattern, which has been very unsettled and snowy in the ski areas out west in recent weeks, will shift with a jet stream ridge building in those same locations. This configuration will focus more of the weather action on the eastern part of North America and opens the door for more snowfall opportunities in New England. If this aforementioned ridge migrates into Alaska as some of the ensembles are suggesting, very cold weather could return beginning around the time of the January 15th-16th weekend.  Our recent bad luck will have to reach epic proportions to get through the next few weeks without some decent snow but when bad luck happens, it happens all at once and doesn't take prisoners.

Arctic chill makes a long awaited return to Vermont and plans to mostly stick around while storm potential continues for Thur/Fri

It was yet another holiday period littered with failures for snow lovers in Vermont. Winter did make a return on Sunday and we got a bit of snow for our troubles but it was another decided under-performance and it's on to January and the center cut portion of our cold season.  And fortunately, we will have some cold to go with our January this go round. It won't measure out as historic but I going to project it will best last year's effort which came in at 2 above average. Last year's version of January was notable for the sustained stretch of sub-freezing temperatures we were able to maintain throughout the month. It would certainly be nice match that effort (more unlikely without -AO help) but more importantly we need the snowfall. 

Though many of the warm water feedbacks I often discuss have been working against us this past month and certainly may have been critical in turning the recent holiday week to mush, the involvement of arctic cold is the ingredient likely to spice up the weather map in our favor. The coastal waters along the eastern seaboard are 3-6 degrees above average and this creates a tinderbox-like environment for big east coast storms when arctic chill is added to the mix. Storms need baroclinicity, or a broad region where cold dry air clashes with warm moist ocean air. The New England coastline has always been a geographically pristine area for such activity and our explosive winter storms have become famous enough to earn the region specific term of nor'easter as a result. In the case of this year, the extra few degrees of relative ocean warmth could create some rather special magic and some of this has already started with a strengthening storm to our south that is expected to deliver portions of the Mid-Atlantic with a fierce bout of snow on very short notice. I am hopeful that this trend continues as we progress toward the later part of this week and a potential storm that could lift us away from the unfortunate morass we found ourselves in over the holiday.

In the meantime, our sunshine finally makes a return Monday as promised. The east coast storm will keep most of the clouds and snowfall well to our south and this means crisp, cold, sunshine for much of the day followed by a cold near zero Monday night. Sunshine may give way to some clouds on Tuesday but it will be another quiet and very average day in northern Vermont. Southwest winds are likely to push temperatures past the freezing mark in valley locations Wednesday but the big Chukchi Sea block is forcing the jet stream to work and will allow large amounts of polar energy to move quickly south and east. Taken in the aggregate, the potential storm which is expected to take shape in the Tennessee Valley Thursday before exploding along the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening has shifted a bit to the south and east. Two of the three major ensembles packages have consistently showed a decent hit for much of interior New England with the holdout being the American GFS which has been in and out of this party all along. Given the delicate nature of any situation involving an amplifying polar jet stream, there's actually a decent amount of support for a hit over much of interior New England though the storm will be fast moving and is not expected to get caught up in the maritimes for any period of time. The extra bit of relative warmth in the coastal Atlantic is a big benefit for Vermont in this setup and it certainly keeps the door open for a stronger storm and the famous northward shift that models often undergo late in the game. The timing of all this appears to be Thursday night into Friday with flurries and snow showers continuing into Friday night. If I could pick an over/under right now on accumulation I would say 6 inches with equal chances of besting or underperforming that number prior to the weekend of the 8th/9th.

Garden variety January chill can be expected for the weekend with blustery conditions persisting into early Saturday followed by a calmer day Sunday. The polar jet will retreat into eastern Canada early next week and is expected to deliver New England another and stronger dose of arctic air by the 11th or 12th of the month but there is some concern that a surge of milder temperatures around the 10th could threaten interior New England with a dose of above-freezing temperatures and mixed precipitation. There are no indications of a major rain event but I would categorize this as a slight risk. After that, we should get some help from the PNA and a Pacific jet that is at least somewhat cooperative. Not a bad outlook overall but it would feel a lot better with some results in the bag and they have proved very elusive so far this season. 

Change back to snow and to winter comes Sunday with storm potential on Jan 6-7

As of late December, La Nina has strengthened slightly and is currently edging out last year's version by a tenth of a degree C. Measured in terms of weather pattern behavior however, this year's version appears more amplified and has had a very negative impact on winter weather on the east coast, especially from the Mid-Atlantic states southward. The southern Appalachians might as well be a tropical destination this past month as temperatures have hardly been sub-freezing and dewpoints have recently soared to near 60-degrees with accompanying heavy rain and thunderstorms. La Nina has always been a mixed bag in Vermont. Though we typically perform way better than the areas mentioned above, we have also experienced a few clunkers such as 1988-89 and 2011-2012. Though we appear to be heading toward another "clunker", the weather pattern does appear favorable for a half way decent stretch of winter in Vermont through about the first half of January. This is a critical stretch for us since we have some jet stream blocking in the Arctic and have managed to tame the Pacific jet stream for a time. I certainly don't expect these conditions to persist indefinitely this year and we thus need to make something happen and soon. 

Not much good will come from our New Year's weekend weather situation but there are worse results than this one. Most of the wet weather from multiple waves of low pressure will pass to our south and New Year's Day will feature just some spotty light rain or drizzle with temperatures hovering just above the freezing mark across much of the northern Vermont high country. A push of colder temperatures will reach the MRV early Sunday as another in a series of low pressure waves passes to our south. Light rain will become freezing rain and sleet for a time and eventually turn to snow sometime during the ski day. 1-3 inches is likely from all this but there continues to be the risk we get screwed entirely. 

Portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic and SE Mass, which have seen little to no winter so far, might receive a bit of snowfall fall from a rapidly strengthening low pressure center off the coast. This is a big whiff for Vermont, but big offshore storms are the best way to get the sun out and visibility improved in Vermont during the winter months and we should see a healthy dose of sunshine to go along with chilly 15-20 degree temperatures. Sunshine will be back for part of Tuesday and will help to warm readings back into the 20's before warm advection clouds advance back into the region. The window for milder potentially above-freezing temperatures appears short and confined mostly to valley locations on Wednesday. Even better is the potential for a big winter storm late Thursday Jan 6th into Friday the 7th. It's a delicate situation involving arctic air spilling south and a rapidly amplifying jet stream. There's also some lingering mild air along the immediate coastline as another potential monkey wrench. Still, the ensembles are showing a nice consensus for a decent event and interior New England appears to be the best location for results. Operational models have and will continue to be noisy for the next few days but more clarity should arrive within a few days. It's the best chance we've had all winter for a decent storm but it remains a "chance" for now and not yet likely. 

Whatever happens Thursday into Friday, the storm and the associated polar jet amplification sets the stage for a cold and mostly dry weekend with readings falling to near zero Friday and struggling to reach 10 on the mountain Saturday January 8th. Reading should moderate somewhat by Sunday the 9th. 

The marginally favorable pattern described in the first paragraph appears somewhat encouraging for Vermont but does not appear capable of sustaining arctic cold in the Ohio Valley or Mid-Atlantic states. We can put a positive spin on this situation by suggesting that an overwhelmingly cold pattern is often not a particularly snowy one in Vermont in January. The widespread area of cold across eastern North America is expected to quickly give way to normal and even above normal temperatures in some areas to our south. Meanwhile the center of the polar vortex will reposition itself in eastern Canada, keeping much of New England and especially Vermont within Vermont's reach. We should thus see a reinforcing shot of winter chill around January 10th and 11th with additional chances at least lighter snowfall throughout that 2nd full week of January. 

Weekend weather is mostly wet with only a chance it ends as snow late Sunday but early January pattern appears decent overall

The weather we have seen during this back half of December 2021 can be described as La Nina to the extreme. Cold, unsettled weather over parts of the west coast with snow in the mountains, extremely mild weather along the Gulf Coast and southeast U.S. and lots of cloudiness and marginal precipitation events in the northeast. Though we may have successfully retained a little sense of winter in northern Vermont, it hasn't been much of a consolation prize especially considering recent underperformance and another wet weather event on a holiday weekend. This is classic La Nina however and if we can just move the battle lines 100-200 miles to the south, our performance would improve dramatically. 

Much of the southeast is finishing the warmest December on record and the ridge responsible for much of this weather continues to push weak, disorganized surface features in our general direction. These have been difficult to predict and have been under-delivering as I mentioned above.  Some occasional light snow is still expected both Thursday and Thursday night but accumulations appear insignificant. Meanwhile the weekend weather event will begin to take shape as a stretched area of low pressure along the already established southwest to northeast temperature boundary. The first area of low pressure will approach New Years Eve and we will thus see another day of cloudiness and some light afternoon/evening snow eventually giving way to some freezing rain or drizzle by early New Years Day. This initial wave is weaker but is nonetheless critical since it will ultimately track well into Quebec and allow milder air to infiltrate the critical levels of our lower troposphere ahead of the primary weather producing storm. 

I had hoped that some low level cold could make a push southward on New Years Day keeping sleet and snow in our equation for the weekend. We've gotten some good news as the track of this stronger area of low pressure appears farther south, perhaps tracking right through the heart of central New England but the cold ingredients are behind the system making snow a difficult ask. Temperatures on New Years Day are likely to hang out near or just above the freezing mark though it does look like we will keep much of the ski day dry though it will stay very overcast. Rain and a few pockets of freezing rain are likely to arrive during the evening New Years Day (Saturday) and continue into the overnight. Perhaps we can keep the rain on the lighter side and minimize the amount of total wet weather but whatever falls Saturday night is not likely to be good. All might not be lost with this storm however. Energy with this storm is eventually expected to consolidate around the trailing area of low pressure and if that passes to our southeast, another area of precipitation later Sunday into Sunday night might still start wet but finish as a period of decent snowfall before Monday morning. We need another few rounds of model data to sort through some of those details. 

We do know that the first full work day of 2022 (Monday, Jan 3) will feature wintry temperatures with readings generally holding in the teens during the day and falling into the single numbers during the overnight. Flurries and snow showers are likely during the day Monday but we should also see some intervals of sunshine and we haven't seen much of that this week and don't expect any this weekend. More sunshine and even better visibility is then expected to Tuesday accompanying some very typical January chill. The cold weather is likely to continue into Wednesday before temperatures moderate ahead of another system likely to advance into the Great Lakes. The late in the week period between January 6th-7th again appears marginal with milder air attempting to push northward into New England. We could get a better result ahead of the Jan 8-9 weekend but could also see another mixed bag of weather. 

On the state of the weather pattern more generally, there are some aspects you have to like. The jet stream in the Pacific through much of early January appears relatively loose and combine that with the blocking structure in the Chukchi Sea region of the arctic and cold air will assuredly push southward and impact much of the United States, especially the northern half of the country. Along the east coast, it's just a question of warding off the negative effects of the pesky Nina southeast ridge. I would expect at least some snow to accompany the inbound arctic air around the weekend of January 8-9 (perhaps as early as January 7) and this will be followed by several days of below normal temperatures. Interestingly, ensembles indicate that the southward moving polar vortex will bounce (for lack of a better word) off the southeast ridge and eventually land in eastern Canada. This would place Vermont in a pretty good spot for winter weather in the middle part of January but the wait has been long and agitation is understandably high (I know it is for me). 

Clouds, light snow and some mixed precipitation dominate the outlook for the rest of this week while a bigger storm brings snow potential for the New Years weekend

I endured my first significant bust of the season with a Christmas Storm that featured way more ice and way too little snow relative to my outlook and more importantly to our collective approval. This weather pattern is not providing any time to wallow in forecast sorrows as a very active weather is expected over the next week. The jet stream ridge in the southeastern U.S. is proving durable, even when faced with increased amounts of polar energy and we thus have a situation where we will be in the path of many weather systems. We will undoubtedly get some snow in this setup but also be faced with more marginal situations comprised of mid-level mild intrusions leading to more sleet and ice. 

We have enough cold air in place Monday night to support a period of light snow and 1-3 inches, mostly in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Clouds and some of that light snow will continue into early Tuesday but I expect visibility to improve some as the day progresses and as winds shift to a more westerly direction and a weakened area of high pressure builds in from the north. Fair weather breaks will be very short-lived in this regime and especially this week and any clearing late Tuesday will be followed by increasing clouds early Wednesday in advance of a weak area of low pressure approaching from the west. We can expect mostly clouds, sub-freezing temperatures and calm winds Wednesday with precipitation holding off until Wednesday night. Another marginal precipitation situation awaits us Wednesday night into Thursday when, if we were to see heavy enough precipitation, we could see a decent period of snow. At least right now, precipitation is indicated to be fairly light however opening the door for another "mixed precipitation" situation. Temperature profiles do appear a little colder than they did over Christmas but as I mentioned, precipitation appears lighter and I would guess that we see a little bit of everything between late Wednesday night and early Thursday amounting to 1 or 2 inches of an icy conglomerate. 

The most significant east coast weather system we have seen in a while is now expected to impact the region New Years Day and into January 2nd (which makes up the entirety of New Years weekend).  Though we are still awaiting to unravel some critical details, there could be multiple areas of low pressure involved and a variety of precipitation types though I am increasingly confident we can keep it all frozen in our part of Vermont. A modified area of arctic cold is expected to fight its way into interior New England on New Years eve following Thursday's precipitation and provide us with decent enough area of low level cold to support a solid front-end thump of snow on New Years Day. Much will hinge on critical details as I mentioned and although an epic 1-2 footer is unlikely with this event based on the current projected storm track, 6-12 powdery inches takes up some decent space in the possibility spectrum. This would be followed by the potential for some mixed precipitation Saturday night (still Jan 1) and into Sunday followed by the potential for some additional snow late Sunday into early Monday. The strongest area of cold this season should then makes its way into New England for January 3rd and keep us very chilly though at least the 5th. 

As I mentioned a few days ago, the emergence of the Chukchi Sea block on all of the ensemble simulations is one of the more noteworthy jet stream features on the early January 2022 weather map. It is almost a certainty that intense arctic air will plunge southward in North America but the Chukchi Sea is pretty good distance from eastern North America even when measuring in jet stream long waves. New England will again not be the focal point for the extreme cold and this type of setup will continue to allow the ridge in the southeastern U.S. to flourish and leave Vermont in the continued battleground area of weather. After a few days of cold weather between January 3-5, we might face another marginal scenario where a storm system is attempting to force mild air into New England around January 6-7 and this would be followed by another round of colder arctic air. I fully expect our snow depth to be in a much better situation than it is now in two weeks time but it will be a bumpy ride and there is no clear evidence of a home-run event as of now. 

Snow, some freezing rain/drizzle expected for Christmas Day and a more promising outlook around New Year's

 There's a lot to unpack in this rapidly Evolving weather situation across northern Vermont and yes I capitalized "Evolving" on purpose for emphasis. It's about to get very cold in the Pacific Northwest, a ton of snow is falling around Lake Tahoe and our friends in Aspen got a little taste of what it's like in a typical east coast ski season - it rained !  A rare occurrence in Colorado above 8000 feet, but it rained for several hours Wednesday evening and night and although it is expected to snow Christmas Eve, wet weather is not something that ski town is used to in any winter month. The system responsible for Colorado's weather will move east quickly and bring Vermont its share of weather on Christmas Day. The details continue to change very rapidly. 

 First of all relates to the timing. The whole event was a question mark a few days ago and was initially pegged as a late Christmas Day, early on the 26th light snow situation.   Precipitation is now expected by dawn on Christmas Day. This is a very disorganized storm and is moving quickly but is expected to get an infusion of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally there are healthy low and mid level frontogenetics in place from the strongest area of arctic cold we have seen this season (temps fell close to zero early Xmas Eve in northern VT). In spite of the strong area of surface cold, milder mid level air is expected to chip away and push readings  into the marginal category at around 6000 feet even as it remains sub-freezing closer to our surface. What does this all mean ? Temperatures are close enough to freezing, where it counts, for snow to fall so long as precipitation is heavy enough. When precipitation is lighter, freezing rain or drizzle is possible. Based on some experience I've had with these types of setups, I am going to predict a decent period of snow Christmas morning resulting in a few inches, some light freezing rain or drizzle in the afternoon followed by another period of light snow Christmas night into early Sunday morning the 26th. I think it all totals to about 3-6 conglomeration and I am hopeful that the final inch or two is off the fluffy snow variety. A gentlemen on twitter asked me about the differences between Champlain Valley weather and MRV high country weather and this is one of those instances where we can expect some huge differences. Burlington will get light easterly downsloping winds hurting their ability retain the necessary amounts of low level cold to support snow. Their low elevation will also hold down total precipitation amounts and they will likely struggle to get an inch. Rutland will perform even worse for the same reasons in addition to the fact that they are positioned closer the milder mid-level air. 

We are likely to see more of these marginal situations in the next two weeks with arctic air on the playing field but the southeast U.S. jet stream ridge maintaining a presence and even occasionally surging northward in our direction. Temperatures, especially across the high country, appear to be mostly sub-freezing but it won't guarantee we can keep all precipitation in the form of snow. The next chance for such event appears to be around Tuesday the 28th or Wednesday the 29th with temperatures at critical levels again appearing marginal and varying precipitation types possible. 

There is some decidedly good news involving New Years which appears both colder and potentially snowy across northern Vermont. Models are having a very difficult time dealing with all the fast moving systems and the specifics are therefore very blurry right now but the threat of a thaw appears reduced while the chances for accumulating snow increased in the period between December 31 and January 2. Even with the continued presence of the southeast U.S. ridge the longer range outlook continues to show a decent coverage of arctic air especially over central Canada. Two of the major 3 ensemble packages now indicate a blocking feature in the Chukchi Sea. If this does indeed occur, we will see some very intense arctic chill make a southward push into the U.S. in early January though the focus of this would likely be west of New England. It will mean an interesting start to 2022 to say the least with arctic air likely competing with the southeast U.S. ridge and placing us in the pathway for multiple storms with a variety of outcomes possible.