Recent model data has indeed shifted the track of Friday's storm north and west but it's a simple case of too little too late. It assures coastal areas will see a decent snowfall including more snowfall in parts of the Mid-Atlantic but northern Vermont will only see a period of light snowfall and accumulations of an inch or two with the "two" more likely across the high country. This might be a decent setup for some terrain enhanced snowfall but an organized storm off the coast has the effect minimizing such activity in the outer periphery. It's more bad luck for interior New England but the pattern through mid January continues to look fundamentally wintry and supportive for more chances at natural snow.
Saturday appears to be a beautiful January day with increasing amounts of sunshine (after some morning flurries) and excellent visibility. It will be cold and blustery for a while (near 15 degrees for actual temps) but this is nothing we aren't used to. Clouds make a return for Sunday and winds will turn southwesterly and increase in speed but temperatures are not expected to be especially mild and are only expected to reach or exceed the freezing mark in valley locations. Precipitation is likely on Sunday but not a lot is expected and temperature profiles suggest snow as precipitation type although it remains close enough to keep watching.
We haven't enjoyed a real old fashioned New England blast of cold in a while and with the slower than average Hudson Bay freeze, we had to wait a bit this winter but it's coming behind a cold front on Monday. We can expect flurries, snow showers and maybe a snow squall during the day and then temperatures plummet well below zero Monday night. Temperatures around the Mt Washington elevation appear to be about -30 C or -22 F which is pretty impressive, even for them. That bitterly cold, stable arctic environment sets up Vermont for a bluebird day on Tuesday but temperatures across the high country are likely to stay sub-zero through the ski day.
Temperatures will moderate during the day Wednesday and again on Thursday and that process should open the door for a snowfall though its a bit early for specific timing and potential amounts. We then expect the pattern to re-amplify for the weekend of January 15th and 16th thanks to the building +PNA pattern (western North America jet stream ridge). To reiterate from the last update, this marks a big change since the PNA has returned a negative observed index since December 1 leading to the barrage of rain, snow and cold on the west coast. More importantly for us is the improving signal for an east coast storm around the aforementioned weekend. Can't make any guarantees about big snow but this is likely going to be the next focal point for storm speculation. It's also MLK weekend and based on a litany of historical results (and absolutely no science) we always seem to break out of snow droughts on this particular holiday.
Ensembles indicate a nice signature that the ridge across western North America will extend to the pole and allow arctic air flood much of eastern and central North America. The trough axis slightly east of the Mississippi River valley makes the east coast a lightning rod for storm activity although one component we appear to be missing (both with Friday's storm and over the next two weeks) is a negative NAO and this often means weather systems are more quick hitting and have the available escape hatch to the open Atlantic. Still a pattern I would gladly sign up for over many others !
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