Still hoping to avert much of the mild weather next week but it's a tough ask

Mad River is concluding a cold yet productive week of skiing, procuring a few inches out of one of the longest snow squalls (from a distance standpoint) I can remember. Temperatures will climb well above the zero-degree mark by Friday afternoon with the help of our first day of February sunshine. As cold as it was across the midwest, Vermont will not record the coldest day of the winter during this cold wave since it was, in most places, 5-degrees colder on MLK day.

Over the next week or so, the cold will relent and we have some obstacles to overcome as has already been discussed. I have been waiting and hoping as the data continues to provide more clarity on the specifics of next week. Essentially, the jet stream configuration will change and re-center the cold much farther west in North America and allow a formidable ridge to establish itself along the east coast. It won't be the strongest ridge we've ever seen, we can look to the Super Nino December 2015 for that so there are questions about whether the mild air associated with this ridge will protrude interior New England. It has been my hope that we can fend it off at the last second as we've proven that we can sometimes do.

The last 24 hours of data continues to indicate glimmers of hope for first 7 days of February, but also  continue to show a mild intrusion and at least a little bit of rain. The first piece of good news relates to the upcoming weekend and involves a few things. A slower temperature moderation with temperatures remaining below the 30-degree mark through the weekend and a canadian weather disturbance capable of bringing some light snow and accumulating snow late in the ski day Saturday into Saturday evening. If we are lucky, we can squeeze a few inches of snow out of that, but it will take a lot of luck to get much more than that. Milder air is indicated to reach much of Vermont by late in the day Monday, ahead of the first in a series of what appears to be two storms. We can cling to a tiny bit of hope that this first storm tracks further south and we can avert a thaw, but late Monday and Tuesday do indeed look mild with at least a period of light rain. The colder air in Quebec is indicated to claw its way back into the state late on Tuesday into Wednesday and remain tepidly present for the 2nd  storm system later in the week. This appears to be more of a wintry mix right now but accumulating snow is possible again if we can push this system further south.

Cold, below freezing temperatures should prevail by Friday February 8th and continue through the weekend of the 9th and 10th. The overall weather pattern is not expected to change however with the focus of the colder air and unsettled weather positioned out west while at least a weak ridge in the jet stream and some milder air remains positioned across the southeast. Much of New England, especially interior New England, will be right in between thanks to the continued efforts of some high latitude blocking in the jet stream and some arctic air which should continue to remain close if not envelop us.

Lesser snow amounts Tuesday night and our next week concerns

I don't particularly enjoy playing the role of pessimist as it relates to our upcoming snowfall totals but I have to at least be a realist. NWS Burlington continues to have Winter Storm Warnings out for what they think will be 5-10 inches Tuesday evening, night and Wednesday. The storm in question however, is really struggling to get its act together and is being motored eastward by the PV and its very strong associated jet stream energy. I certainly don't expect us to get shut out completely however. Light snow has fallen throughout the day Tuesday and will intensify Tuesday evening and continue through part of the night. Given the way the storm is looking, I don't expect the moderate snow to last long enough to produce hefty accumulations but 4-8 inches is still enough to make for a powdery Wednesday. The incoming attack of brutally cold arctic air will actually wait until late in the ski day Wednesday to envelop MRG and surroundings so much of the day will feature tolerable temperatures (generally in the teens). The approaching arctic boundary is likely to bring some snow squalls and about 1-2 inches of additional snow. After that, temperatures nosedive toward zero and are closer to 10 below zero Thursday morning.

Shallow cold associated with the PV should provide stability along with the cold on both Thursday and Friday. Thursday's temperatures should reach about 5 and Friday's should get just beyond 10 with the help of a bit more February-powered sunshine. The cold will linger through Saturday but readings are expected to moderate quite dramatically late in the weekend. The possibility of some overrunning, warm advection induced snow remains sometime in between the Saturday and Sunday ski days but this remains just a possibility and is far from likely.

The buzz regarding a possible thaw has intensified over the last two days. At the very least, we should expect a period of above freezing temperatures and there's a chance that some rain accompanies that (though this remains only a chance). Having gotten that statement out of the way however, I figure it would be a good time to put the old "optimist" hat back on my head. Lets start by taking a trip down memory lane to one of the great weeks in this history of the MRG coop. 11 years ago, the 18-0 Patriots were 2 touchdown favorites against the upstart New York Giants in Superbowl 42 played on February 3rd 2008. The weather outlook at MRG during the ensuing week looked rainy and mild with the possibility of an extended thaw lasting a few days. Needless to say, it didn't look good for the Giants and it didn't look good for us powderhounds either. The NY Giants ended up winning that Superbowl however (hello 18-1) and Mad River Glen had one of the most epic weeks I can remember, procuring nearly 50 inches of powder over the span of multiple days. I don't bring these memories up to rub salt in the wounds of Patriots fans. I mean, I am sure those wounds would've healed by now and in addition, the Patriots have continued to dominate the ranks of pro-football while the Giants have sunk into futility. The weather set-up for next week however looks, in many ways similar to 2008 and during the same week after a Superbowl which will be played on the same day (February 3rd). Arctic air should remain ever-present across Quebec and will be fighting for at least partial control of New England even after completely relinquishing its grip over much of the country. There are a series of low pressure areas that are expected to impact the region next week, traveling along that boundary of very mild air over the Mid-Atlantic and continued cold to our north. The eventual position of that boundary will ultimately determine our fate but this is not a lost cause next week and could go either way or could go the way of both good news/bad news.

Beyond February 8th the outlook has taken a somewhat colder turn. The axis of cold air continues to look as if it will be positioned farther west and the jet stream in the Pacific appears as if it will gain some strength basically weakening the currently negative EPO  (data which is finally available again with the conclusion of the gov shutdown). That said, we should retain some high latitude blocking in the jet stream and this will keep arctic air from being completely scourged from lower North America. I can't promise another epic month but I am almost sure that we will not travel down the same abominable road that we did in 2017 and 2018 in February. I expect much better things. Enjoy !

Wintry week with both snow and cold and a milder early February outlook

The upcoming week will be about as wintry as it gets for the state. The talk of snow in the last update will now get amplified; and as advertised, bitterly cold temperatures and even colder wind chills will follow in the wake of that snow late in the week.

It certainly helps to get an over-performance on snowfall from what was a rather pathetic looking weather system on Sunday. The high country has thus regained its powdery prominence and can look forward to the arrival of an even bigger storm late on Tuesday.  In the meantime, northerly winds will usher in some dry air on Monday and although temperatures will be chilly, it will pale in comparison to conditions we will experience late in the week. Some sunshine and good visibility can't hurt either.

Tuesday's temperatures will moderate, reaching the 20's during the afternoon as clouds thicken. Snow should develop during the late afternoon or early evening. The southern stream is going to feed this storm a little juice but if there is a theme for the week, it is that everything will happen very fast. Snow will arrive, accumulate 6-12 inches during the overnight and will taper to flurries Wednesday morning. There will be a brief opportunity for some additional snow showers before the thrust of the shallow and bitterly cold arctic air pushes into the region by later in the day Wednesday. Temperatures will fall into the single digits by the evening and wind chills will be well below zero but the ski day itself will prove to be pretty darn good. Thursday on the other hand will be windy and bitterly cold in spite of some sunshine with temperatures struggling to make it above zero on the mountain. Interestingly, this polar vortex will make waves in the upper midwest for bringing temperatures of close to 20-below to Chicago. The windy city hasn't seen such readings in a while. After that however, the PV will rotate northeastward and rapidly retreat deep into Quebec. Though the region will be in close proximity to the PV on Thursday, we will not get the direct assault. It's analogous in some ways to a landfalling hurricane where Vermont is sitting 500 miles inland while states like Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota are right along the coast. Temperatures will certainly be very cold Thursday but may even fall short of being the coldest of the season with MLK day beating it out. Furthermore, temperatures will moderate very quickly, reaching 10 Friday with somewhat calmer winds and well into the 20's on Saturday.

The first full weekend of February could see some snow induced by warm advection. The push of milder air however is of growing concern because it appears, as of now, capable of bringing temperatures  back above the freezing mark sometime between the 4th and 6th of the month.  This is not, by any means, etched in stone and there are hints that lingering arctic air in Canada could fight for a piece of the proverbial pie. Forecasts of the PNA index however strongly suggests that arctic air will shift its focus westward in early February and will leave the door open for a milder intrusion. What happens thereafter appears conflicting as of now. Enough blocking is indicated to persist at high latitudes to keep some arctic cold in Canada, but at the same time, the jet stream in the Pacific is indicated to intensify. Though the longer range outlook continues to look milder, there are still no glaring indications that another February will succumb to El Torchy. For now its just the one potential mild scourge on February 4th-6th.

Possible storm Tuesday/Wednesdy of next week ahead of another big cold surge !

The deep snowpack largely survived the onslaught of rain Thursday and will now serve as a very durable base for the duration of the ski season. To put that base to good use however, we will need some additional snowfall and fortunately, we have some opportunities for that in what still appears to be a very wintry outlook going into early February.

Following the light accumulation as a result of Friday's snow showers, Saturday will follow as a chilly but mostly dry day with temperatures hovering in the low to middle teens. Though it looks generally cloudy Saturday, visibility should be improved compared to the past few days. Some light snow is expected to move back into the region early Sunday in response to a relatively innocuous polar jet feature. There is limited available moisture with this feature and a lot of what is available will actually hit areas farther north. Still, we could see a 1-3 inch accumulation along with some moderating temperatures (near 30) as Sunday progresses.

The Sunday feature is somewhat of a disappointment, but it will allow a limited amount of arctic air to rebuild across interior New England ahead of the next and more dynamic weather situation. The various model simulations are all over the place and understandably so given the approaching polar vortex, the seemingly uncertain impact of southern branch moisture and especially the overall track and development of what could be a rather strong storm. No point in hedging here at the SCWB so lets try and provide some clarity by sorting through this mess of information. Doubting the legitimacy of moisture in the southern stream, as the American GFS model continues to do, appears flat out wrong to me. The presence of such moisture will serve us in two ways. Provide more moisture for snow, which given this scenario, will commence on Tuesday and pinch off possible warm intrusion by focusing low pressure development and intensification farther south. There are still some questions regarding the track and eventual intensity of this system and the with PV approaching the northern Great Lakes, it won't take much of a change to shift this track. That said, I think we have some leeway and good potential for a sizable snow accumulation in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Stay tuned on this one.

Then we have the "polar vortex" (PV) to deal with late in the week. There has been so much talk about this feature and a lot of it has been truly worthy scientific discussion. And then there has been the incessant hype, mostly from the twittersphere and a lot of that has been what I would call "attention seeking". This PV will get as far as the northern Great Lakes and then veer northeastward, providing the U.S. a surge of very cold temperatures but only across a limited portion of the country. Vermont, as we all know, is usually well-positioned to get its share of whatever cold surge comes south so although the southern U.S. will avoid the extreme temperatures this time, we will get our share late next week. For about 4 days starting late Wednesday, temperatures are likely to stay in that -10 to +10 range with fiesty winds providing wind chill temperatures in that -20 to -50 range.

Some flurries are possible during this cold period and a disturbance could provide an opportunity for some light snow late next week. For the most part however, the proximity of the PV usually provides some stability to the lower troposphere and will keep a low ceiling on snowfall potential. After Saturday February 2nd, the pattern is expected to soften and arctic air will retreat somewhat. Will this retreat provide an opportunity for another thaw in the first full week of February ? Possibly a short one, but I haven't seen anything too disconcerting as of yet and we will need the pattern to soften, at least somewhat, to open the door for storminess.

The rainy interruption ends late Thursday with some snow and lots of cold for the balance of Jan

The fantastic stretch of January weather has been rudely interrupted and each piece of data seems to indicate more and more rain. Temperatures will surge into the 40's Thursday morning and the rain will be heavy for a time, but without powerful winds and excessive dewpoints, much of the snow should survive. That said the nearly inch of rain will cause some problems due to sudden runoff. The rain is expected to turn to a period of snow after about 3 PM and this could amount to a few inches across the high country before all precipitation ends during the early evening. Another forgettable mid-winter rain-fest in Vermont, perhaps not as bad as some but certainly worse than others and worse than this looked a few days ago.

The polar jet is expected to reemerge as a dominant player on our landscape almost immediately after the rain event. Temperatures will be back into the teens early Friday and the first in series of clipper-type systems will eventually spread snow showers back in to the state during the afternoon. Not much is indicated to fall during this time frame but 1-2 inches is certainly better than nothing at all and remember this will be the first. Saturday will be colder still with readings near zero during the morning and in the teens during the afternoon. Though flurries and snow showers are possible Saturday, accumulating snow is actually more likely Sunday as the second and stronger of these polar jet features impacts interior New England. This has the potential to be more of a 2-5 inch type of event with the most intense snow falling before first tracks time Sunday.

A third system and potentially the strongest will mark the southward advance of what we expect to be a fairly major polar vortex type of event. The coldest arctic air of the season is expected across the  midwest and ahead of this, a dynamic weather feature will spread snow in the New England in the Monday/Tuesday time frame though it remains uncertain what part of New England is best positioned to score the best snow. Recall that I had made mention of a some southern branch activity in past updates. Though this remains on the playing field, the indications are that this activity is overwhelmed by the polar jet. The ENSO has weakened some in recent weeks but not entirely so I wouldn't want to simply neglect any potential southern streamer which could still manage to significantly alter the forecast across a broad part of the eastern seaboard early next week. Vermont is also expected to be enveloped by the deep freeze later in the week with another round of sub-zero temperatures in the AM hours and near 10-degree highs. The shallow cold air is likely to cut down on the snow shower activity after Wednesday but its reasonable to expect 6-12 inches from the series of polar jet features over the span of 5 days (this Friday to next Wednesday).

Though February is expected to begin on the chilly side, there has been a developing consensus that the pattern will soften. The American Ensembles paint a picture suggesting a turn toward milder than average temperatures by about February 4th though there are other indications of a more tempered moderation according to other simulations. I have little doubt that the ferocity of the polar jet will weaken  after its attack on the U.S. next week but I would be surprised if we gave way to a completely mild pattern in February. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to remain negative and the Pacific appears as if it wants to remain on the benign side for the foreseeable future. Even if arctic cold is shown to retreat, New England is likely to fight the hardest to hold on to winter's chill as it has done so all season.

Surge of milder temperatures Wednesday will only slightly interrupt what is a cold and snowy setup for end of January

Just like the New England Patriots football season, there was a time in late December where things seemed to be unraveling just a bit. And as the Pats advanced to yet another Super Bowl, Mad River Glen was procuring another storm of close to 20-inches and is further cementing the winter season as a truly memorable one. Though we are certainly on a pace to do just that we have to keep this train rolling.

Directly ahead of us remains a complicated forecast picture and an unfortunate push of mild air. Often times, computer forecast simulations fail to pick up on a overrunning surface until within a day or two of an upcoming event. I have been holding out hope that some of the bitterly cold temperatures that have gripped New England will continue to do so through Wednesday/Thursday of this week but indications are that this air will get mostly flushed out at varying degrees. As of late Monday, there remains some disagreement regarding the extent of the mild intrusion but the tepid consensus is for some light snow to develop on Wednesday and give way to a bit of freezing rain and then rain during the overnight hours. Though temperatures could make a run at 40 by very early Thursday this won't be a significant thaw and as moisture continues to stream up from the south on Thursday, a wave of low pressure could potentially change the precipitation back to snow for a time before the event culminates Thursday evening.  Stay tuned to the forecast because last minute changes are likely.

Modestly colder air will work its way back into the region Friday and a clipper system marking the advance of bitterly cold temperatures should spread snow showers into the state as the day progresses. The snow does have some accumulation potential. Meanwhile, there has been lots of talk regarding the incoming attack of the "Polar Vortex" and the first such approach will come Saturday though it appears as if we simply get a glancing blow (The PV will only make it just south of the Hudson Bay). Colder temperatures will advance into the Vermont high country late Friday and Saturday will be quite cold with a sub-zero low and a high of only near 10 but this is about 10 warmer than MLK Monday.

Temperatures are actually expected to moderate modestly by the end of the weekend and all eyes will be on a major amplification that is expected in the jet stream for early in the week. It looked for a time that it would simply be a peak in the arctic insurgency but it appears as it the action in the jet stream is associated with what could be a major league southern streamer. With the polar jet on the playing field, it sets up a highly dynamic situation involving the presence of arctic air, big time moisture associated with a strengthening low pressure center in the gulf states and a potentially big and phased system early next week moving up the east coast.  Some big snow is certainly possible and if we don't get it that way, we could certainly get it from a succession of polar jet disturbance with one arriving Sunday and another marking the advance of more bone chilling arctic cold around the time frame of Tuesday/Wednesday (Jan 29-30). So much could happen, and like I said in the last update, most of it good !

We then advance the calendar toward February and we will have a few things at work. Continued blocking in the jet stream and a negative Arctic Oscillation will keep arctic air at least close by but the most intense blocking is indicated to shift northwestward and thus may allow the focus of the most intense arctic cold to shift more toward western North America. This should help keep the region more out of the way of some of the more bitterly cold arctic air. That said, the jet stream in the Pacific is not indicated to intensify so it would surprise me to see the polar grip entirely capitulate. There is also no reason  not to believe in the magic of this modest El Nino which should continue to support a healthy southern branch of the jet and thus keep the storminess in play.

Big MLK weekend snow remains on track, more snow potential emerges both mid-week and next weekend

Lots of excitement in the weather universe and lots of excitement in the east coast skiing universe. It simply doesn't get much better than a holiday weekend and a big storm capable of producing some big snow on some already big conditions. We have all the ingredients in the right place for this one. A fresh supply of  arctic chill and an approaching and strengthening storm which is in the process of exiting the Rocky Mountain region and will begin gathering moisture first from the Gulf of Mexico and eventually the Atlantic Ocean.

Temperatures will plunge to sub-zero levels Friday night and some sunshine might greet skiers on a cold Saturday morning. The sunshine, if we get some, will be short lived, but in a relative sense, it will be tranquil in spite of the cold. The wind for a good part of Saturday will be gentle compared to what we expect both during the storm Sunday and after the storm on Monday. Clouds will have enveloped the region by late in the day and snow will begin early Saturday evening. The snow will be light at first and become heavier after midnight as winds continue to increase. Sunday morning will be as wintry as it gets with wind driven cold smoke, moderate to heavy snow and temperatures not too far from zero. Roads will be snow covered undoubtedly, but it won't be the wet stuff that can often make conditions quite slick. Sunday is obviously a powder day but of the very cold and windy variety. Winds will become northerly and be gusting to 40 or even 50 mph at the summits. A "north" wind is not an especially bad direction for MRG if you know what I mean, but I make no guarantees.

The snow intensity will wane as the day progresses though it will continue to be very windy. I am going to stick with snowfall accumulations of 1-2 feet but the data does suggest that a narrow "best zone" for snow will be across central and southern Vermont during this event. I feel relatively good about securing a foot at Mad River but the two feet accumulations appear more likely from northwest Mass northward to about Okemo. Stowe and points north will struggle to get over the 1 foot mark but they should score a decent amount of powder regardless. Temperatures still look like they will be around -15 Monday morning and will stay sub-zero throughout the day along a continuation of very windy conditions.

After Monday, temperatures are expected to moderate and do so very quickly. The area of arctic air will temporarily shift westward early in the week and allow a weak ridge in the jet stream to establish itself along the east coast. Temperatures will be up in the teens on Tuesday and could potentially make a run at the freezing mark Wednesday. There is certainly some valid concern over this as a storm system approaches and the jet stream re-amplifies. Is it possible to get a wintry mix or even rain Wednesday after the wintry extravaganza of MLK weekend ?? In New England absolutely ! But models are telling a different overall story, at least to me. A story that appears quite volatile and that yes could include precipitation other than snow  for a time during the middle of next week, but could also include some big time additional snowfall. This could happen by means of this same mid-week system (wintry mix/rain could turn to snow) or could happen closer to the weekend from another potential storm. To put it plainly, there is so much that can happen from Wednesday the 23rd through the weekend and most of it is good. Not worth worrying too much about what could be just a little "bad"

Beyond next weekend and into early February we are still looking at a very cold pattern. This is anchored by all of the high latitude blocking in the jet stream which has already emerged   as of this blogging and will become more pronounced by late in the month. The active Pacific jet and the rapidly cycling MJO will likely prevent the pattern from maintaining a grip on the North America for the entire month of February but for us, the combination of storminess and cold is a terrific thing. Overwhelming cold can limit the snowfall which could happen for a time as January transitions to February but I don't think it will last long. For now, I have nothing but love for how this season has transpired and nothing I've seen today changes those feelings.

MLK weekend storm track solidifying and it looks to be a good one but a cold one

Let the games begin as they like to say ! New England remains one of the most intriguing places to experience a winter and much of what will happen over the next two weeks underscores this. Arctic air steps in the New England side door Thursday and then takes a half step out on Friday only to take a full a decisive step in over the weekend into early next week. We can expect a little snow early Friday morning thanks moisture from the remnants of a dinky Pacific system. The big storm is obviously still coming over the weekend and we remain well positioned for significant snowfall.

The news relating to this storm is basically good as of Wednesday morning. Us forecasters had watched a very gradual but steady northward trend in the storm track from one set of models to the next but this trend has stopped as of  late on Tuesday and a solid consensus of data has been established which basically has this impressive looking system tracking from Memphis, TN Saturday evening to Washington DC Sunday Morning and eventually ride the southern New England coastline Sunday evening. The Pats are not playing the AFC championship game at home this Sunday but if they did, what a fun game that would be to watch. This expected track is a very good one for most of Vermont and especially good in central and northern Vermont where very cold air will be well entrenched. Snow will begin Saturday evening and become heavy during the overnight hours with a steadily increasing northeast wind that will become fierce out of the due north during the day Sunday. The snow should taper off Sunday evening or at least lessen to flurries  and then bitterly cold air will be hammered into New England sending readings within a few degrees of -15 by Monday morning. MLK day itself looks colder today verses a few days ago, with both strong winds and sub-zero temperatures throughout. No doubt there will be some fresh turns but as they also like to say, you will have to earn them. And I almost forgot about accumulations. Lets keep these at about 1-2 feet since the storm appears to be a quick mover. It will be a cold and wind-blown 1-2 feet however with temperatures in the single numbers throughout the storm and a lot lower as I mentioned after the storm.

The drama is likely to continue as next week progresses. Yes arctic air will win out for holiday weekend but might get threatened late in the week as the mean trough in the jet stream is expected to shift westward. How profound is this  slight shift will ultimately determine whether we have to introduce some alternative or unwanted precipitation types into the forecast. Its hard to say right now but as I mentioned on Monday, anything pretty much goes late next week and I do think we will be contending with yet another substantial east coast storm. Temperatures which will obviously start the week brutally cold but will moderate, and potentially moderate dramatically. By Wednesday, readings will be back at normal and could go above normal very late in the week but even if the latter were to happen, it would only be temporary.

This brings us to the outlook for the last weekend of January and beyond into early February. There has been talk, insane amounts of talk and blogs and tweets suggesting a historic arctic outbreak. Historic both in terms of intensity and historic in terms of duration with cold persisting through much of the month of February. I am convinced that there are way too many weather personalities with some sort of attention seeking personality disorder that feel it necessary to one-up one another on the hype scale as a means getting people to notice. To be fair, the whole "clickbait" media environment which has exploded since the SCWB began has likely fueled a  lot of this and perhaps has forced many otherwise level-headed weather folks into this mode. The Capital Weather Gang which is a terrific group of people that report on weather related news in the Washington Post released something yesterday insinuating incredible cold through much of February.

Polar Vortex to punish eastern United States

The article is a well-reasoned piece citing what we know about the split in the polar vortex which occurred early in the month and the SSW that occurred last month that often fuels outbreaks of cold. The relationship however is not a perfect one and the weather is incredibly chaotic. Us forecasters have enough trouble getting day 10 right no less weather a month from now. I thus found the piece to be especially one-sided.

That being said, the end of January does look especially cold. The EPO which is a measure of the jet stream in the Pacific is expected to relax and the jet stream is indeed very blocked. If there is a warm-up late next week, it will be short-lived and quickly replaced by much colder air by January 26th (Saturday). Bitterly cold temperatures are likely to then continue through the rest of the month and for at least a short time, it is the kind of jet stream configuration capable of suppressing the southern stream of the jet stream. Snowfall late in the month could still come by means of terrain enhancement and clippers. Beyond that, the weather pattern is likely to continue to evolve. I am optimistic for snowfall at MRG but I am very pessimistic about the accuracy of forecasting extreme temperatures beyond two weeks out with good accuracy, at least with 2019 technology.

Big MLK holiday weeekend storm has lots of potential for the whole of interior New England

The weekend system left a nice blanket of snow in DC and a very distinguishable seasonal snowfall hole in the Boston to New York city corridor. Mad River Glen has stayed out such a hole this year so far and I expect will stay out of it for the duration of the month the way things are looking. The mountain enjoyed a cold and dry weekend but temperatures have moderated to more seasonable levels as of early in the week. If you like tranquility and some good visibility, enjoy it because as they like to say, ___ its about to go down (insert 4 letter word) with wild temperature swings, storms and some extreme cold mixed in for the balance of January.

Over the next 2 weeks, a couple of big picture items that we typically monitor will be competing with one another and thus all the anticipated action . A block in the jet stream over the Arctic Circle will form and allow arctic air to push southward through Canada and the northern part of the United States. Meanwhile, the Pacific will remain active with a barrage of storminess creating lots of precipitation coast to coast while at the same time somewhat blocking the southward advance of arctic air. All of this will, for the most part, be to Vermont's benefit as far as wintry weather is concerned. Arctic cold will enter the playing field, but for the time being, won't be so overwhelming that we are taken out of the pathway for all the storminess and snowfall. The first chance for such snowfall comes a weaker wave of Pacific energy Thursday night. It won't be much of an event, less than 12 hours of relatively light snow, but enough to bring a 2-4 inch refresher before a stronger arctic airmass builds across the state and region by later Friday. And this sets the stage for the holiday weekend which to say the least, looks quite a bit interesting.

Unlike its predecessor, the storm coming out of the Colorado Rockies on Friday will be a beast and  is poised to make a run at the east coast late Saturday into Sunday. The storm will be fued by moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a massive clash in temperatures between a strong arctic airmass to the northwest, and warm, moist, almost tropical air along the southeast coast. Snow and ice will result across New England with interior areas seeing the best chance for heavy snowfall including our beloved Mad River Valley. Though there have been a few models the past few days that have kept the storm to our south, I am much more concerned about a changeover to ice with this event than missing the storm entirely. Either way, this is a massive event that is capable of producing a lot of precipitation over a broad area. For the time being, we sit in a pretty good area for another foot of additional snowfall and potentially a lot more.

The storm will help to pile drive cold arctic air deep into the south for Martin Luther King Monday. At Mad River it will simply be that run of the mill, blustery, bitterly cold day with snow showers. Temperatures are likely to hover around zero on the mountain with wind chills well below that. Winds will subside somewhat on Tuesday and temperatures are likely to recover into the teens after beginning the day below zero.

The duration of next week (beyond MLK day) also look interesting with the region as a whole being the nexus  betwen a clashing of airmasses. For the time being models indicate a series of drier days between Tuesday and Thursday and then another potential storm late in the week or the weekend. Though the pattern will be full of cold air, the focus of this will be on points further west after Tuesday and the door is open for about anything as next week progresses. Eventually however the EPO is expected to relax jus enough to allow arctic cold to win the day by about January 27th or so and the month to finish on the very chilly side. Looks to be a terrific pattern with lots of snow, yet still the possibility for a few other precipitation types as well in spite of all the cold.

Exciting finish to the month coming a bit more into view

Over the course of the last several years, there's been plenty of talk about "snow holes" or storms that always seem to hit the New England coastline but miss the northern Green Mountains. Discussion such as this always underscores the old adage that the grass seems to always be greener on the other side of the fence. Except it really isn't true, we just only seem to take notice when cities like Boston are buried under 2-3 feet of snow that Vermont manages to mostly miss. One thing that eventually always holds true is climatology and the law of averages and that everything, given enough time will gravitates back to the mean. This year, it mostly decidedly has. The old snow hole, which can move from one geographical location to another from one year to another has decided to situate itself over Boston, MA this year. Look at these numbers.

Mad Rive Glen 111"
Richmond, VA 11.2"
New York City 6.4"
Boston, MA 0.2"

And wow, look at this upcoming storm this Sunday. Yes, it will completely miss MRG as expected, but will also miss Boston and they are likely to spend yet another week in the 0.2 inches of seasonal snowfall territory. These things actually do happen.

So with that, the weekend looks sunnier now on the mountains but continued chilly. Satuday will be a little blustery but a little calmer on Sunday. Temperatures will struggle to get above 10 during the days and be well below zero at night.

Next week appears to be a rather tranquil one for much of eastern North America but as the blog has alluded to previously, temperatures will remain below the freezing mark for the most part. Readings will climb into the 20's Monday and be up near 30 on Tuesday. Wednesday marks the next chance for snowfall which will come from a innocuous looking weather feature that will mark the advance of our thaw-saving chill down. We can thus hope for a few inches of snow from the weather feature Wednesday before temperatures fall back to below average levels Thursday and Friday.

The arctic air late in the upcoming week will be the first product of a newly developed "omega block" in the jet stream that will form over the Arctic Circle north of Alaska. This will keep more arctic air on the playing field not only late next week but will also keep it there for much of the rest of the month. There has been more incessant hype about North America landing itself once again in the deep freeze but a deeper dive into some of the data indicates that there are continued issues getting the Pacific to entirely settle down. In this case I am actually happy about this because I think it will keep the pattern from getting overwhelmed with cold air and allow for a more active and stormier scenario. There are a few storms showing up on the forecast simulations beyond January 18th, the first coming MLK weekend and a few more after that. It will be chaotic and there is the chance for a storm to track in more adverse fashion, even in a unfavorable pattern. Overall though, this appears to be an exciting way to finish what has already been a decent month.

Snow continues to pile up and overall outlook continues to move in the colder direction

The northern Vermont high country, Mad River Glen included of course, again was able to score as expected and as I've mentioned, is doing so in spite of a less than ideal weather pattern.  So it feels especially good to take on a bit of powder and then read a weather outlook that appears colder and quite wintry which this one will.

Additional snowfall is expected Wednesday night into early Thursday (3-6 inches) and when combined with all the wind, will create plenty of first track opportunities even as the snow gradually abates during the day. Thursday is also the last relatively balmy day on the mountain with temperatures holding in the lower to middle 20's though as mentioned, it will continue to be quite blustery. Polar air, much of which will miss a large chunk of the eastern United States will descend on interior New  England Thursday evening into Friday and allow for a succession of days where temperatures range from zero to 10 below during the early mornings to near 10-above during the afternoons. It will remain windy on Friday along with a lot more sunshine but will markedly calmer Saturday/Sunday with at least limited amounts of sun Saturday. There has been and continues to be talk of an east coast storm Sunday into Monday and all indications point toward a miss for Vermont and quite possibly a miss for all of New England. That said, I never want to completely disrespect a "southern streamer" type system during an El Nino. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a stronger storm and a late northward trend though it will take a big trend to get the snow as far north as Vermont.

This leaves a pretty dry outlook for ski country after Thursday. Another push of milder temperatures will bring the opportunity for a weaker disturbance to spread some snow into the state early in the week but there are no indications that this amounts of anything of significance. This push of milder temperatures will lose some steam prior to reaching New England and may even fail to bring any above freezing temperatures to the high country the entire week. Furthermore, there are hints of a stronger weather feature later in the week capable of producing some accumulating snow before the polar jet arrives in time for the weekend and sends temperatures downward around January 19th and 20th.

There has been plenty of discussion and hype regarding extreme cold in the longer range weather forecasting circles. For the most part, this discussion has amounted to idle chatter with much of North America remaining largely free of widespread extreme chill. The reasons for this boil down to the lack of high latitude blocking in the jet stream and a Pacific Jet that has, so far, failed to completely weaken. The high latitude blocking situation is expected to change in the coming week or two with a decisively negative AO expected to emerge. The situation in the Pacific has been more a more challenging riddle to solve. The MJO was in high gear and ready to cycle back into some of the colder North American phases but provided a giant head fake to all that were watching and swerved in a more neutral direction. Now, there are indications again that it will swerve potentially back toward those colder phases and the jet in the Pacific will weaken. This part of the equation though still appears less certain than the buildup of blocking at high latitudes. I certainly wouldn't want to contribute any more to the idle chatter but I still think its reasonable to expect a colder period to commence around January 19th and 20th. Though we don't want to suppress the storm track too much, we will certainly see some action from the polar jet and can expect plenty of chances for additional snowfall during the rest of the month. Good times for sure !

Northern Vermont continues to be a great looking spot for snow over the next few days and maybe the weekend

The mountain got pleasantly surprised with a few inches of Champlain powder on a January Sunday and this pushes the seasonal snowfall total pretty close to the 100-inch mark. I don't think we'll have any trouble surpassing that mark over the next few days as northern Vermont continues to look like a favored geographical location for snowfall thanks to a decent looking weather situation even as much of the eastern United States experiences relatively mild weather for January.

MRG has started the week on the chilly side and will actually end the week on the chilly side as well. Starting Monday evening however, some of this very mild air which encompasses locations to our south and west will make a hard push toward New England and will do so on the wings of a fast moving but weakening Pacific impulse. Moisture will accompany this weather system and will fall in the form of some snow Monday night over northern Vermont, yielding about 2-4 inches by Tuesday morning.

Beyond Monday evening,  the weather picture has evolved somewhat since our last update and has also gained a bit of clarity which includes both some good news and some not as good news for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. The not such good news involves the push of mild air which is likely to gain a small foothold in southern and central Vermont by later Tuesday. Temperatures at MRG will start the day near 20 but end the day closer to 30 while for the most part, significant snow isn't falling. By Tuesday evening, temperatures in a few spots may eclipse the freezing mark and when precipitation begins again, it may recommence as a wintry-mix rather than the powdery good stuff. The good news however is that the stronger milder push is related to a stronger second Pacific impulse which is now forecast to be the focus for a strengthening area of low pressure that is expected to cross the southern or central part of the state Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Though temperatures/precipitation will be a little tenuous for a time Tuesday evening, readings will fall slightly by Wednesday morning and accumulating snow will have begun with at least a few inches by first tracks time Wednesday and several more during the day. This storm will be sensitive to elevation, especially the snow type and also quite sensitive to latitude. Southern Vermont will see much more limited amounts of snow and elevated areas north of MRG have a chance to see as much as 20 inches. For Mad River Glen I see a 3-day total of 10-20 inches which includes the 2-4 Monday evening, and more continuous snow late Tuesday night through early Thursday.

Though the weather pattern in an overall sense doesn't favor widespread cold across North America, it will allow for an isolated outbreak of winter chill this weekend for the northeast, a welcomed change from what the outlook hinting at a week or so ago. Cold air will descend into the region as Thursday progresses and make for a chilly Friday and Saturday with temperatures well below zero at night and single numbers during the day Friday and near 10 Saturday. Sunday's temperatures will also be chilly but weather prognosticators are more concerned with a southern streamer which may evolve into a east coast snow producer, maybe even a significant one. Lots of different scenarios remain in play for this storm and this includes an inland hit and more snow for us hounds but also more of a coastal hit and maybe even no hit at all.

The cold air is expected to moderate as next week progresses and temperatures are likely to be back above average by the middle of the week. That said, much of interior New England will avoid some of the excessive warmth that will dominate a large expanse of the middle of the country and we are lucky, we could even score a little more snow. The longer range indications show a build-up of arctic cold in Canada later this month in response to some better blocking in the arctic. This would begin around the time of January 20th, until then however there remains a risk for a thaw even if we do largely escape the ravages of the mild weather next week.

Next 7 days look pretty golden however so enjoy them !!

Epic snowfall appears unlikely this week, but 8-16 is certainly a big help

Northern Vermont managed to escape what turned out to be mostly a rain event for southern New England Saturday. We now await the arrival of some much needed cold air which is poised to arrive Sunday along with some snow showers. Temperatures will fall into the teens as the day progresses and there appears to be just enough moisture out there for a 1-3 inch accumulation across the high country during the morning Sunday. Of course, there is much more interest in the coming week where snowfall prospects continue to look good. The potential phasing of the system in question doesn't appear as promising as it did a few days ago and the weather system as a whole appears slightly less organized; nonetheless, there are a lot of nice ingredients in place, and just enough cold air for a healthy and needed accumulation with snowfall beginning Monday evening and continuing, sporadically, through Thursday

As of the current weekend, the storm in question is a moodest snow producer for portions of the Rocky Mountains and it will advance quickly across the country Monday. Unfortunately, models do indicate that it out-paces some of the polar energy in the jet stream which remains poised to infuse itself into this weather situation during the middle of the week. This slight delay will likely cost us a big storm, but this remains a very good set-up for the Vermont high country with a period of snow Monday evening or early Tuesday and then continuous snow at varying intensities later Tuesday, Tuesday night, Wednesday and part of Thursday. The snow on Wednesday and Thursday comes in response to a nice pool of instability which should allow for terrain enhanced snow accumulations over the high country. Northern Vermont and the White Mountains of New Hampshire appear to be a very good spot for accumulations of 8-16 inches with a few favored locations performing even better.

Northern Vermont is not just a good spot for accumulations this week but is a good place  for winter in the overall sense through January 20th I am happy to report. I've mentioned a few times that this is not an especially wintry pattern for North America and El Torchy has been and will be prevalent through mid January across large expanses of the United States. Vermont will continue to avoid much of it however and do so in style with the aforementioned accumulating snow this upcoming week; furthermore, the concern about a mild surge of weather on the weekend of January 12th and 13th has been alleviated largely. Instead, much of Vermont ski country should see another chance to score some more snowfall either by way the northern or southern branch of the jet stream. Hopefully both !! Temperatures won't be especially cold both this week or during the week ending January 18th and are likely to average above normal during both, but for the time being, actual temperatures appear as if they will fall short of excessive levels.

Talk of significant snow early next week getting more legitimized

We got a bit of snow to get us back in the winter spirit very early Thursday but we will also have to contend with a mild day Friday. Fortunately, this will be a dry and somewhat sunny version of a  mild day with temperatures reaching into the high 30's or lower 40's during the afternoon. At the very high summits, readings might stay below the freezing mark but by January standards, that goes down as quite balmy for January standards. Meanwhile, low pressure is organizing along the Gulf Coast and is readying to make a northeastward advance toward the Delmarva Peninsula. The good news here is that most of the precipitation will stay south of Vermont. I am calling this good because of the glaring lack of available cold. Sure, the high elevations could squeeze out a few inches given enough moisture and this might happen across extreme southern Vermont and the Berkshires of Mass but this is a less than ideal situation that we should be mostly content to simply avoid. Our Saturday at MRG should feature just cloudy skies with temperatures in the 30's. A surge colder Canadian air will advance into Vermont Sunday and bring with it some snow showers early Sunday, perhaps enough for a small accumulation. Temperatures will stay below freezing on the mountain during the day and drop into the teens and single numbers Sunday night.

And with that, lets move on to more important things, like the Vermont weather situation for next week. It's already been mentioned, a few times, about the prominence of "El Torchy" next week over a large expanse of the central United States. I am so pleased to report that New England will be left mostly out of this conversation even though temperature expectations have warmed significantly compared to a week ago. Furthermore, talk of snow has now been substantially amplified. There were indications of such going back 5 days but mostly through relatively innocuous circumstances. Now there real potential for a significant storm, one that will look initially like a decayed and mostly occluded  Pacific storm that will seek a makeover along the New England coastline and hopefully attain nor'easter status before exiting by Wednesday January 9th. Making all of this happen and happen in the 15-30 inch snowfall kind of way, will require an important polar kicker (an upper air impulse in the northern stream that can be thought of as a PED for east coast storms) and a somewhat optimal track that allows both the necessary amounts of moisture and while limiting the amounts of warm air. We have some leeway here regarding the latter since we have established some loose consensus regarding the track of this storm and that some limited amounts of colder air will indeed be available across interior New England and interior New England only. The "polar kicker" remains a question mark however at least somewhat. If, how and when this infusion takes place are questions that remain still unanswered. The good news is that a "downside scenario" still should involve some accumulating snow (just less than 10 inches). The other good news is that the lack of arctic air might actually serve us well and make for a more unstable atmosphere Wednesday and thus enhancing our terrain enhanced snow prospects.

Moving along, Thursday and Friday of next week appear to be quieter days for the mountains as far as precipitation goes and Friday is the one day of the week where temperatures might make a run at the freezing mark. The weekend of the 12th-13th is then shaping up to be another very interesting time frame but I can't promise good news at least yet. There are strong indications of another moist southern streamer, strong enough to produce a substantial amplification in the jet stream along the east coast. Cold air looks very lacking at the the start of this event but not as lacking toward the end. It doesn't appear to be a big thaw but a situation where everything could be in play.

And then we are still trying to make sense of the middle of the month after January 13th. Significant disagreement still exists though there has been some movement toward an eventual consensus. It looks as though temperatures will be above average but it remains a question regarding how much. There is also stronger agreement/evidence regarding a continued active southern stream; which, if nothing else, might help save us from potentially excessive amounts of warmth.  Both the GFS and Canadian ensemble members show some blocking emerging in the Arctic Circle which could help push more intense amounts of chill into Canada after January 15th or so. The European continues to tell a much weaker version of this story

Though not an especially arctic outlook, New England appears positioned to score at least some snow and avoid the excessive warmth over next 10 days

Plenty of items to update on this first day of 2019 so let me wish everyone a happy New Year and get right to it. We gained a bit more clarity on our weather for the late-week period although it's still not entirely decided, the first full week of January continues to look less arctic but potentially snowy and some major disagreement has emerged in the long range ensemble guidance regarding the outlook for the middle and later parts of the month.

Models continue to sort through the plethora of moisture in the southern branch of the jet stream in search of a main area of low pressure that will serve as our big east coast precipitation producer. Moisture will actually begin streaming into area of decaying cold. On Thursday, some of this moisture will get sucked into a weaker Pacific disturbance and the result will be a period of snow for us. This should all begin prior to daybreak on Thursday and continue for several hours and then end by the middle or later part of the morning. All in all we can expect about 1-3 inches but it will be powdery, marking a bit of a change from recent days.

The main area of low pressure will hang back a bit and will actually remain close to the Louisiana coastline Thursday evening as skies clear partially across the state of Vermont. The storm will gain a bit of momentum on Friday and be situated over the Appalachian Mountains Friday evening while temperatures moderate in Vermont and reach the middle 30's. The storm will head toward the coast but questions remain regarding what part of the coast and how far north the systems associated precipitation can reach. It appears, as of late on New Years Day, that precipitation will indeed reach much of the state on Saturday but with very marginal temperatures, setting the stage for what might be an elevation event with rain at lower elevations and snow above 2000 feet or so. Whatever falls Saturday, and there certainly remains a chance it wont be much, it is unlikely to be especially powdery given the near freezing temperatures. A limited amount of arctic chill is expected to build across New England on Sunday and some snow could accompany this during the morning. By evening, skies should clear and temperatures should fall back into the teens which is pretty typical for January standards.

As I mentioned, the first full week in January doesn't appear especially arctic but New England may be the only place in the eastern U.S. to be safely out of El Torchy's reach, for the most part anyway. Mild air will work hard to try and displace this isolated area of chill and in doing so will establish an overrunning surface that might be capable of producing some snowfall in the early part of the week but I will wait another update to provide further details on this since those details will undoubtedly change.  It's possible that some mild air could sneak its way into the region toward the end of the week but most of the warmth which will reign over the central U.S. should stay out of Vermont. There are indications of another big southern streamer around the weekend but this is also way too far out to detail right now.

Then comes the long range. The ensembles can't be any different, especially across western North America and the Pacific. The European ensemble guidance paints a very bleak picture for us. Basically it's evil empire Jr in the Pacific and potentially very mild weather across for eastern North America. Both the Canadian and especially American ensembles weaken the jet stream across the Pacific and establish a large ridge that extends from California up through British Columbia, the Yukon and Alaska. I am certainly hoping for the colder version of events (The Canadian and American version) but I've become a bit of a cynic regarding the prediction of big things with the PNA and would certainly like to see support from the European model before promising such things.