Northern Vermont remains on the fringe of big nor'easter and chances for big snow are reduced but not entirely eliminated

 Storm speculation for Saturday's bomb is approaching a crescendo. The late-inning phasers are very difficult to get a handle on just from the standpoint of model data and add to that all of the very intelligent but also very reactive weather enthusiasts on social media and its a mess. This is why I try and avoid getting too caught up in the play by play of model data and other observations. There is a lot of both and it's usually better and easier for everyone just to focus on the big picture. And amazingly, that picture for us has not changed much. We remain on the fringe of what is potentially a mammouth nor'easter. Our chances for big snow have been reduced simply because we have not gotten the northwest shift we've been hoping for (at least as of yet). If the storm indeed phases and bombs over the relative warmth of the coastal Atlantic, snowfall across the western fringe (which includes us) will over perform. This is just my opinion of course and not a strict adherence to any preferred data point. There's model data suggesting  enough momentum in the jet stream to take the storm far enough east to shut us out. This remains a possibility but I am not of the belief that happens. 

The remnants of a weakened clipper system will allow some light snow to fall over northern Vermont early Friday but a reinforcing push of low level arctic chill from a high pressure center over Quebec will dry things out during the afternoon. We may even see some clearing Friday night that would allow temperatures to fall back toward -10 by early Saturday. Clouds will again encompass much of Vermont by mid-morning Saturday and I think some snow will work into the area Saturday afternoon, expanding westward from the deepening storm off the New England coast. As of now, model consensus takes the storm 100-200 miles east of Cape Cod. This is too far east for big snow in northern Vermont but if we can pull this storm to within 50 miles of the Cape, things would change quite dramatically. For now, that big snow can be expected across the White Mountains of New Hampshire and much of Maine. If the track of the storm remains unchanged, I think we can expect some light snow Saturday evening and night with blustery conditions and about 2-5 inches by Sunday morning. The weekend will be another cold one. Temperatures will be stuck in the single numbers on Saturday and it will be largely the same on Sunday accompanied by strong northwest winds during the ski day. For coastal areas of eastern Mass, the seacoast of NH and much of Maine, this is a historic nor'easter and should do a number on travel late on Saturday and Saturday night. I certainly expect some 2 foot totals in some of those locations. 

I have some thoughts on the longer range as well including the mild, torchy intrusion that is more likely late next week. It's busy today though and I'll add that part of the update this afternoon.