Snow tonight, less mild late this week, more snow this weekend all part of a beautiful update !

 Lots of good stuff in this update and I can't help but continue to think of where we were last February in contrast to now. In 2024 we had a historic continental scouring of arctic air and I was trying to take solace in the fact that Vermont was only 10 degrees above normal as opposed to 25. Though the pattern has realigned with the core of the cold now focused on areas farther west, that core of cold represents some of the coldest air on the planet and large portions of Canada are set for a dramatically colder February than  the one a year ago. New England sits in one of the more interesting locations and will see cold to the north constantly doing better with pushes of milder air from the southeast. We saw that cold win out this past weekend and produce a -15 degree morning (coldest of the season in many locations) and though the forecast still includes threats of mixed precipitation and a little bit of rain, these interludes of milder air appear weaker, shorter and not an especially dominant part of the outlook for the next two weeks. 

When things are going well, you steal events like the one we can expect for Monday night. Temps will sneak above freezing in valley areas Monday. Hopefully it makes for a comfortable ski day for those heading out, but the best part is that it won't negatively impact precipitation when it arrives Monday night. Some years, it's hard to produce a decent anafrontal situation where the snowfall is induced by undercutting cold air and this appears to be one of those. It appears to be a very straightforward situation with some snow arriving after the ski day, falling steadily until about midnight and tapering to flurries thereafter. Temps will be in the upper 20's on the mountain as the snow is falling, closer to freezing in valley areas and by the time the ski day begins on Tuesday we should have 4-7 inches and by then it will be powdery with temperatures spending much of the day in the teens. 

Jet stream is set up to produce a nice period of sunshine from late Tuesday through Wednesday albeit with some very cold temperatures and in the case of Tuesday wind. Much like the weekend, the push of cold is more direct and should produce another round of sub-zero temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday morning. Wednesday's cold is the version I prefer however with excellent visibility, lots of blue skies and tolerable wind speeds that are expected to get pretty calm by late in the day. Clouds return by Thursday and temperatures will moderate and rise into the 20's. We've had our eye on Thursday's weather system for a while as one that might bring mixed precipitation, rain and/or a significant thaw. Models have all backed off on the latter two which is terrific news.  We can now expect a decent front-end thump of snow beginning in the midday hours that will change to some sort of mixture in the evening hours. Temperatures might exceed the freezing mark for several hour Thursday night, but not in a material way. I don't think the mixed precipitation will be all that significant either though it does remain a part of this equation. Colder air returns during the day Friday and temperatures fall back to sub-freezing levels accompanied by lighter snow showers. 

The 2nd in a series of storms this pattern is set to produce appears very promising for the back end of this weekend. It's a similar looking storm to the one set to impact us this Thursday only with a storm track that is further south. Because the system is still 5-6 days out, we should still anticipate some alterations but this certainly has the potential to produce significant snowfall accumulations for northern Vermont. 

Much of this update is colder themed and this covers the outlook beyond this upcoming weekend and into next week. The core of the coldest air remains well to our west and north yet we will continue to see this cold make southward intrusions into interior New England and produce days like this past Sunday or this upcoming Wednesday. I am more excited about the potential storminess however which continues to look a lot more active verses what we saw in a relatively dry, but cold January. Whatever kind of storm we get Sunday, should be out the door by early next week and will be followed by another potential storm in the middle to later part of the week after 2-3 drier days. The Euro ensemble turned much colder President's Day weekend and beyond though this is not entirely supported by the Canadian and American ensembles. Either way, its an outlook that's shifted from normal to above on a temperature range to normal to below. Just a really solid update for us Vermont loving skiers overall ! Enjoy !

Polar jet putting the squeeze on late Friday potential snow while pattern gonna force us to play some defense in early Feb

I was somewhat disappointed with the snowfall Wednesday but was more perturbed by the 20-degree bust on temperatures. The closest thing we have to a Santa Ana wind here is when we get one from the southwest, something that occurred yesterday for 2 hours, caused temperatures to spike all the way to 30-degrees before falling back toward expectations by later in the day. In spite of all that, Thursday turned into a nice semi bluebird special with some fresh powder on the mountain, excellent visibility and a chilly but tolerable wind. 

An area of low pressure in the central plains, has a healthy area of moisture associated with it on its eastward trek across the United States. This is a good looking setup at face value, yet the formidable polar jet is going to squeeze this sucker and ultimately prevent a decent area of snowfall to develop across interior New England. At least we'll manage to avoid the rain I suppose though its hard not to think of this as a wasted opportunity with so many of the right ingredients available to us. Friday's weather will thus consist of clouds and moderating temperatures through the middle of the afternoon followed by a period of light snow persisting late into Friday night. By Saturday morning, bluebird weather is back with a snowfall unlikely to exceed 1-3 inches. It's not an ideal situation for anyone with rain or mixed precipitation be the featured story as you head south and only light snow to the north. This storm, unfortunately seems very unlikely to evolve into a significant snow producer for hardly anyone. At least February arrives wintry and it follows a month of January that saw little to no rain, depending on your elevation. Saturday will be cold accompanied by a stiff northerly wind and temperatures in the single numbers accompanied by sunshine. Sunday should start sunny with sub-zero temps and finish with clouds and readings in the teens along with light winds. 

Lots of weather of all kinds for the first week of February and uncertainty remains as to the actual outcome. A dose of cold snow Sunday night should bring 2-6 inches of powder our way for the ski day Monday, a day that will eventually feature milder temperatures that get close to the freezing mark and will likely exceed it in valley areas thanks to that lovely southwest wind. Arctic air then reasserts itself for Tuesday returning the thermometer to the teens and providing us with a bit of sunshine. Then all the question marks come and we will see what kind of defense we can muster for the late-week period. Ensembles are putting us on defense a lot in the first half of February. Though arctic air is expected to remain close, its getting very difficult to imagine us getting to February 15th without a day of mixed precipitation, rain or a substantial 1-2 day thaw. As for late next week, it remains possible. The Euro continues to bring a storm system up through the St Lawrence Valley with ice and rain deep into northern Vermont on Thursday February 6th. This is a bias of the Euro model though and other simulations are still suggesting a different and better outcome so its probably best to let this play out a little before hitching our wagons to anything. 

This basic setup is expected to rinse and repeat a few times  through the middle of the month as I mentioned. It reminds me a little of the early February '22 setup which gave us some lousy weather and also the best storm of the season. The core of the coldest air across the entire globe is on our continent, just on the wrong side of it (Alberta, Saskatchewan, northern Rocky Mountains). This cold is shown to extend into eastern Canada which means if we can flatten this pattern out a bit and void the big amplifiers, we could see some bigger storms. Can't say the same for southern ski areas from Pennsylvania southward which can expect a lot of bad results and not many good ones in this setup. 

6-10 inches of beautiful cold snow Tuesday night into Wednesday and a little more is expected going into this weekend

Lots items on the weather map for the next two weeks. A lot of that is good and we have one big concern now that we can highlight and root hard to avoid. The short term outlook is fantastic, and a bit of snow has been added to the outlook going into what should be an awesome, wintry looking weekend. 

Our clipper system is on time and on target and we appear to be in a pretty good spot though not entirely bullseyed. Snow will begin around midnight Wednesday and fall through some very cold near 10 degree air. First tracks time should feature 3-5 fresh and powdery inches and though the snow won't get especially heavy, we should able to double that total by Wednesday evening as snow tapers to flurries. Arctic air has retreated across much of the country with the exception of interior New England which should see readings in the single numbers along with sunshine on Thursday. Winds appear gusty Thursday morning and then taper off substantially by the end of ski day. 

The weather is coming at us in a fast and furious way in this very energized jet stream. You don't like the weather one day, just sleep it off and something different gonna happen tomorrow and this is the way it will be for a bit. Our last day of January will feature more cloudiness and considerably milder temperatures. It appears cold enough to snow as precipitation arrives in the afternoon though I am a little c concern we see a mixed precipitation period if winds stay southwesterly. Fortunately, any of that mix is expected to become snow Friday evening as temperatures turn colder. This weather map appears very different than a few days ago and includes a much more organized storm system that is getting squeezed by advancing arctic air from the north and mild air from the south. It's moving quickly, limiting our snowfall potential though we can still expect a few inches ahead of a wintry and sunny weekend. Saturday is blustery and cold with temperatures in the teens and improving visibility. Sunday should feature early sun, and little wind followed by afternoon clouds and a little more wind. Temperatures should finish the weekend near 20

More fast moving and constantly changing weather for the beginning of next week. We can expect a bit of snow Sunday night and  Monday from what appears to be a benign storm followed by some colder air for the middle of the week. This is when things start to look dicey. Though we have some arctic air in place and could find our way to score some big overrunning snows, ensembles have dealt us a blow by showing a strong push of milder temperatures late next week that might prove a challenge to completely ward off. February is a time where northern Vermont can play some of its most effective defense and I've seen dicey situations turn amazing during this part of the season. Much depends on how amplified the jet stream becomes in western North America. A well organized deep amplification featuring deep snowfall across the southern Rocky Mountains can result in a thaw across Vermont in any part of the winter, but if the amplification proves to be a bit more broken up and less organized, the northward push of milder air in eastern North American can run out of gas. 

There are encouraging signs subsequent to the thorny questions revolving around Feb 7. One of the visible features in the simulated jet stream is a ridge across Alaska extending into the Arctic and polar air should never become too far removed and we can expect a return following whatever results we get at the end of next week.  The EPO continues to show a willingness to cooperate and has been an important ally all winter. The arctic air retreat this week and potential trouble late next week is more a result of PNA issues and loss of AO support. The latter appears to want to come around as we move deeper into February.

Teaser snow for early Tuesday and then 5-10 inches of cold snow Wednesday

The west to southwest wind is one that typically blows strong and warm even in northern Vermont. Fortunately, the prevailing airmass is an arctic in origin and temperatures on the mountain are the warmest version of sub-freezing and nothing more. We had round one of this Sunday with another round coming Monday. A cold front extending south from a clipper system will bring our first period of snow for the last week of January. It starts within a few hours of dawn Tuesday, ends within a few hours after dawn and should bring 2-4 inches of snow to the mountains.

The early Tuesday snow will mark the reemergence of colder air that is expected to remain in place through ar least February 1st. More on that in a bit. Until then there is a lot happening thanks to a fast flowing jet stream. A more dynamic looking clipper is expected to approach as advertised and we look to be in a decent spot for a round of cold snow during the ski day Wednesday. The snow should actually begin before the ski day but persist through much of it and accumulate 5-10 inches. Southern Vermont does appear to be slightly better than us for the heaviest snow though not by much. Regardless, I never complain about a good cold snow and this one will occur with temperatures near 10 degrees. Following the snow, we get a brief but direct shot of bitterly cold air. Be prepared for a ski day Thursday with some wind and temperatures near zero before temperatures moderate Friday,.

The pattern is certainly shifting as February arrives and should result in drastically different weather conditions for much of eastern North America. Keep in mind that for several regions in the southern US, the recent month of January has been the coldest in 15 years or more. Across interior New England, I am not so convinced that the changes, though less wintry in many areas, are less wintry for us. The EPO, after all brief positive interlude this week, is expected to tack its way back up not negative territory and help provide some resistance against any full scale continental scouring of cold, which we are not expecting to see. Instead we should expect to a major part of the action with storminess that should take good aim at us and even if the coldest air is focused on the western part of the continent. Lots of specifies to unpack so I won’t open the suitcase too much in this update. I couldn’t even if I tried though I can say that our next chance for significant weather is Sunday Feb 2 and there should be more thereafter. The risk of a material thaw is elevated in that first full week fo February though I don't consider it likely yet. 

MIdweek clipper emerges as biggest snow threat over the next 7 days

Every winter seems to have a different personality and this one is strikingly different than the last few. Last year had a mild and cloudy personality and this year could not be more different. This January could very well finish 8 degrees colder or more than January 2024 while featuring a doubling of bluebird days. So far the big storm has been elusive, but we've had a dry January and when I say that, I mean no rain. We saw some mixed precipitation with the wet snow on New Year's Day and its been snow and cold ever since with nickle and dime snows. This is the way the month is poised to finish and one has to be excited about some of the model simulations released late Friday for the mid-week clipper event. 

Sunshine through about early afternoon means most of the ski day is bluebird on Saturday. It's still chilly  with temperatures rising only to about 20 degrees, but winds remain light helping the comfort level. Sunday is cloudier, windier, temperatures will be up a few degrees and we should see a bit of light snow. The westerly winds  means the best accumulations are in the Stowe to Jay Peak corridor while MRG and Sugarbush get more of a 1-3 inch snow . Sunday's snowfall is the first in a series of clipper events that will break the recent dry stretch of dry weather caused by the recent intrusion of arctic cold. 

There's a lot happening next week and will be hard to digest it all in one reading. Arctic air is undergoing a partial retreat and a fast jet stream is sending a lot of disturbances our way. Monday will start tranquil and then the wind is expected to pick up, enough perhaps to bring temperatures up above the freezing mark in valley locations. Clouds will increase and we should see a bit of snow from a clipper centered well to our north. Things could change but the snow appears most likely to fall early Tuesday and be mechanically induced which means its mostly associated with the front expected to bring a resurgent area of arctic cold to the region. The Tuesday ski day should have some fresh snow but only a minimal 1-4 inch amount. 

Wednesday is much more interesting. This clipper appears significantly more energetic at jet stream level and may receive some Atlantic Ocean help when its impact is felt in northern Vermont. I want to be careful here because models have moved the best area of snow both north and south at varying times and I am not totally convinced a final answer has been reached. A 6-12 inch cold snow seems to be a very viable answer, most of which would fall during the ski day Wednesday. A direct shot of bitterly cold arctic air is likely to hit interior New England in the wake of whatever snow falls Wednesday. It will be temporary but will make Thursday windy with temperatures close to zero on the mountain. Friday should see a moderation in temperatures after a cold start and should feature less wind. 

A few model simulations are suggesting a threat of milder temperatures during the first week of February and potentially as early as Sunday Feb 2. I am going to remain skeptical of any multi-day torch across southern New England even if its advertised on long range models. I certainly expect dramatically milder weather across the Ohio Valley and deep south which has just experienced the coldest month in over a decade in some instances. The negative EPO which is again expected to reemerge in early February should help counteract the loss of AO support and make for what I think could be an interesting period of weather. Traditionally, the battle of mild air across the south and arctic air in southern Canada can make it stormy in New England and there are some indications on the longer range ensembles. We will see how it evolves.

Temps remain wintry but moderate for the weekend and a clipper train next week

Tuesday, January 21st featured a historic day of winter weather for potions of the deep south. The corridor from Houston to the Louisiana bayou (New Orleans included) and all the way to the Florida panhandle saw a significant snowfall. It wasn't just a wet snowfall on grass in some instances either, powder snow fell on Bourbon Street and temperature fell to the single numbers in places like Gulfport, MS and Lake Charles, LA. It's not been a year where storminess in the southern plains or Gulf Coast region comes northeast and amounts to much in New England. On the flip side, the clipper system has been revived and is alive and will be the story as far as new snowfall is concerned over the coming week to 10 days. I don't think this relationship is accidental either. With storminess in the mid latitude and southern portion of the jet stream more subdued, it allows clipper systems to be more robust and deliver more effectively for northern Vermont.

A succession of bluebird days has accompanied the cold weather in recent days and we might be able to squeeze a few hours of sun out of Thursday before clouds increase. This first clipper appears to be falling apart upon its arrival and the combination of clouds and flurries appears to be the likely end result Thursday night into Friday. After another sub-zero morning, temperatures are expected to moderate, climbing into the teens Thursday and Friday. Sunshine is expected to then return for Saturday before our first chance for some accumulating snow comes Sunday (it would be light). The bigger story for the weekend is the comfort level. Saturday morning will be cold but sunshine and minimal wind will make the 20 degree afternoon feel nice. Sunday will feature a bit more wind and some light snow but temperatures are expected to climb into the 20's. 

My hopes for a big storm early next week appear dashed. Again, not been a good year to bet on anything coming out of the southern stream and I am no longer doing that for the last Monday or Tuesday of January. That said, the clipper train is robust and should deliver on multiple occasions. The first dose of snow comes after a windy Monday. Thankfully, its just stale arctic air and this will prevent a snow scouring as temperatures only reach 30 under some clouds. The snow would fall Monday night into early Tuesday and would amount to a light accumulation. A better looking clipper system with heavier snowfall amounts is then possible during the middle of the week. Pretty much all the model simulations are indicating a decent swath of snow from this but disagreement remains as to where it happens. 

The longer range has us looking at the first full week of February and its the same type of theme to what was discussed a few days ago. We see some jet tightening in the Pacific but conditions then stabilize, perhaps even neutralize by the first of the month. The jet stream structure consists of a ridge over the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands and this teleconnects more with cold across western North America. It does not force arctic air into deep retreat however and we are expecting a decent amount to linger over southern Canada, making occasional New England intrusions. It helps to have a few feedbacks working in our favor now with some ice now on the Great Lakes and the Hudson Bay finally frozen. Big warmup expected for the southeast, but New England is in the of fire for storms if one does materialize.

Shallow, stable arctic cold to keep the skies bluer through Wednesday and some storm potential emerging early next week

 The south wind did what it often does in our neck of the woods on Saturday. Temperatures were warmer than expected and snowfall failed to meet expectations though I suppose we should've been happy there was any in the forecast at all. We got a make-up call Sunday night as the late-blooming nor'easter manage to give us a 2 inch grazing. Now the story is shallow, stable arctic cold and some blustery northwest winds. We got one bluebird day out of this setup Monday and should get another partial one for Tuesday with temps again near zero on the mountain and maybe upwards of 10 in valley locations. Winds Tuesday will be similar at the summits at about 20 mph producing well-below zero wind chills. Cover up. 

Winds are expected to diminish for Wednesday and some early sunshine may or may not get dimmed by late day cloudiness. Expect similar temps as the prior two days with the shallow stable eliminating snowfall potential through Wednesday evening. A very limited amount of moisture is expected to work its way into Vermont on Thursday as temperatures begin to modify. This might be enough to produce a period or periods of very light snow and a minimal accumulation. The disturbance responsible is expected to clear by Friday allowing for some sunshine to return and afternoon temperatures to make a bid for the 20 degree mark. 

Subtropical moisture and storminess is expected to create all kinds of problems along the Gulf Coast from Houston eastward to the Louisiana bayou country. Some of those areas will see significant snowfall to go along with cold temperatures and that storminess is expected to remain well south of us through most of the upcoming weekend (the last of January).  We weaker clipper system is likely to bring a minimal amount of snowfall and temperatures will remain slightly below normal and well below freezing. This could all change early next week as the next batch of moisture out of the phase could potentially phase with a relaxing polar jet or gain some strength along the eastern seaboard and become something of significance. Model simulations have yielded us some mixed messages but enough of them are saying something and something isn't nothing and that's about the easiest way to think about it. 

A potential storm early next week is likely going to be followed by another round of cold for the middle of the week. This would go along with my expectations of no mild intrusions through the end of January. The pattern is expected to get a little dicey in early February. The GFS ensembles have been showing a pretty material EPO surge or tightening of the jet stream in the Pacific. The European ensembles are more split showing a tightening of the jet in the eastern Pacific but a more favorable one int the Central Pacific. They could use some storminess in southern California obviously though the storms in this pattern would be focused more on the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. As I mentioned portions of the southeast and Ohio Valley can expect a big moderation in temperatures though much like what was indicated a few days ago, there is a core of arctic cold that is expected to hold its position in eastern Canada and thus the outlook for interior New England I would not categorize as overwhelmingly mild. No strong hints of an organized storm for early February as of yet (the biggest hint is early next week, Jan 27/28), but a partially retreated polar jet might is more likely to keep the door open for something to come at us. 

MLK weekend starts mild, finishes cold and now includes a bit more potential snowfall

 We saw a little mixed precipitation with the wet snow that fell on New Year's Day and since then we've seen persistent cold and a lot over-performing nickle and dime events. It's added up to some fantastic mid-January skiing which will carry right though the MLK holiday period. The weather situation for the weekend has evolved a bit and now includes some likely additional snow on Sunday though the same general theme holds with milder weather at the start and eventually a bitterly cold finish on Monday. 

Winds are expected to become southerly on Saturday and in certain circumstances, those can really rip through the valley and warm temperatures beyond expectations. It's possible we could see temperatures up toward 40 on the valley floor with a little early sunshine. Across the higher ski areas though readings are expected to stay close to or below freezing with snow developing around midday. I try not to get too optimistic in these type of setups since the moisture and initial storm to the north appear disorganized and wind isn't favorable. In spite of that, we could score 2-4 inches with much of it falling right near the end of the ski day Saturday. The warmer valley floor is more likely to see 1-2 inches of wet snow and there are models out there predicting a little rain at low elevations Saturday night as precipitation lightens up. Temperatures Sunday morning will fall back into the teens with arctic air building across the region. The story however relates to an area of low pressure expected to strengthen along the east coast Sunday. The expected track of this storm, east of Cape Cod, does not put any part of northern Vermont in the heaviest snow but their remains a rather broad range of model scenarios that do include a decent period of snowfall late Sunday. The Canadian model has the storm tracking the furthest west and indicates a foot or more of snow for MLK Monday. The consensus and my expectation, is for a period of light snow and 1-4 inch accumulation for will be a cold and blustery Monday with temperatures near zero for much of the day. Interestingly, the formation of the storm should help keep the winds lower for Sunday but could then help make them worse as the storm continues to strengthen downstream of us Monday. The situation with the snow needs to be watched as models have a notoriously difficult time with a good polar jet present. I wouldn't totally dismiss the Canadian model scenario or one that would have us receiving very little snow Sunday night. 

The arctic air blast expected to peak in the Monday-Wednesday period is likely to be the strongest for eastern North America collectively though we may see a stronger one more focused on us later in the season. It appears shallow and stable enough to cut down on potential new snowfall through January 23rd and even bring the sun out for a few decent stretches in this same time frame. More clouds and some warm advection snowfall will then become likely later in the week. There have been indications of a more organized storm system taking a run up the coast at us later in the week, but as of late Friday, that action appears suppressed to the south. 

Over the past few days, I've seen a wide range of scenarios painted for the last week of January and some of those have included mixed precipitation, above freezing temperatures and even some rainfall. I would certainly be inclined to believe the more general idea that cold and more unsettled weather will shift its focus to the western U.S. in this period since ensembles are clearly indicating a loss in PNA support. It's been a very cold month so far across the southern U.S. and those folks will certainly get a reprieve by the 26th or 27th. Across New England, their appears to be enough evidence, at least to me, that we stay cold and this is anchored by the continued support of a tame jet stream in the Pacific. Even if we get some slight tightening or a neutralization in the EPO, it won't be enough to scour the cold out of southern Canada and parts of New England. Additionally, this places us in the line of fire for storms and my guess is we get some sort of impact from one between the 27th and 31st of the month. A dry January means different things to different people and if you have a goal based on the traditional definition then you more than half way there. The no-rain definition is the one I am thinking about and the dream, for now, is still alive in that regard.

Only a few inches of snow indicated for the front part of the holiday weekend before bitterly cold air overpowers us

It's become tradition for a significant snow producer to hit on MLK weekend at Mad River Glen. It's happened so many times; in fact, that I almost have come to expect that kind of trend in modeling as the period approaches. So far however, we've yet to see it. Weather is certainly a big story with plenty to discuss including some snowfall, yet the big storm is proving to be a bit elusive so far. That said, conditions have been excellent with the recent run of cold weather and the cumulative impact of all the nickle and dime events. 

More powder and a little bit of midday and afternoon sunshine certainly turns Wednesday into a winner. Temperatures in the low teens and a stiff breeze will make it the coldest day of the week though it certainly will pale in comparison to conditions last week. Winds will abate for Thursday and Friday and clouds are expected to prevail both days, but accumulating snow appears less likely with much of the limited moisture focused on areas both south and west of Vermont. 

The story for the weekend goes like this. The chess pieces are set for a massive winter southward surge of arctic cold poised to overspread much of the continent. On Saturday, we'll remain out ahead of all that arctic air and southwest winds will boost temperatures up toward the 30-degree mark. The push of milder air will provide us with a period of light snow for Saturday and an accumulation of a few inches. The system in question doesn't appear organized unfortunately and the wave of low pressure expected to form later in the weekend is likely to focus the winter weather on snow-starved southern New England though things can certainly change. The bigger story is the temperatures. After the relatively mild day Saturday, readings will plunge into the teens on Sunday and then close to zero on Monday. Unless we see some material changes with how any subsequent storm might impact New England Sunday into Monday, the shallow, bitterly cold arctic air is likely going cut down on potential snowfall amounts late in the holiday period. I am at the risk of bear hugging current model simulations which always change especially with the polar jet on the prowl so stay tuned. 

Bitterly cold temperatures and wind dominate the weather story for Monday and Tuesday with some sunshine being the small consolation prize. Recent model simulations are suggesting some light snowfall toward the middle of the week from warm advection following what should be a decent stretch of sub-zero temperatures. The later part of next week should feature a moderation in temperatures and some potential storminess along the east coast has at least at giving us something. I tend to think we have a better chance at a significant storm during the last week of January where its indicated that milder air across the southeast battles it out with arctic air which is expected continue to have a presence over southern Canada, the Great lakes region and portions of the west-central US.

Wintry but quiet week of weather in VT is followed by some storm potential for MLK weekend and extreme cold thereafter

Lots of weather news around the country in the near term led of course by the devastating fires in Southern California. A distant second would probably be the recent snowfall across the deep south. With the wind having died out somewhat across Vermont, the state and skiers in particular will enjoy a quieter stretch of wintry weather in the coming days. It won't last as potential storminess is beginning to come into view for MLK weekend followed by a widespread extreme outbreak of cold across eastern North America. We stand a reasonable chance now of recording our coldest overall month in nearly a decade across northern Vermont if some of the simulated cold for next week indeed comes to fruition. 

Lets begin with the next few days which will again feature some continuous lighter snowfall, ending hopefully as some heavier snow showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A clipper system over the northern Great Lakes wants to play a little hopscotch on interior New England. This dance has it and its associated moisture decaying somewhat as it tries to make an approach and ultimately the system will reestablish itself in southern Nova Scotia and heavier snows are not expected for us. That said, light snow, capable of accumulating an inch or two during the ski day Monday will be followed by more snow showers on Tuesday. Like with many clipper type system, that window when winds turn more northwesterly, which is expected later in the day Tuesday, will provide MRG the opportunity for some heavier snow showers and a 3-6 inch accumulation before the ski day Wednesday. Colder temperatures are expected to return for what we hope to be a powdery Wednesday, though Monday and Tuesday's readings will be comfortable, easily reaching the 20's on the mountain both days. 

Our best shot at some sunshine and decent visibility comes Wednesday though I should mention that the computer guidance is telling me it will remain cloudy so I will split the difference and say some brief intervals of sun. Clouds should prevail for Thursday and Friday and some light snow is expected to accompany those clouds occasionally. At this time accumulations late in the week appear minimal. 

MLK weekend is where it all gets interesting. Smoothing all the crazy particulars, which is what the ensemble simulations do when they aggregate all the different simulations, one would expect some snow on Saturday and a few inches of accumulation and then the bitterly cold air would gradually build across the region Sunday into Monday. Temperatures on Saturday might reach 30 fall into the teens on Sunday and perhaps end the holiday period near zero. Seems easy enough, but there is a lot of potential noise in there as several different individual simulations have indicated in recent days. As cold builds across much of North America, a ridge across the southeast part of the continent will push back some and there's a reasonable chance that a more considerable storm materializes from this and impacts the northeast during the weekend before the brutal cold takes over. Expect the forecast to evolve in the coming days. The presence of the polar jet can make it very difficult to resolve detail beyond a few days. 

We've had a few temporary outbreaks of chill in the past few years but the outbreak of arctic cold next week follows a few weeks of garden variety cold and is expected to hit the United States when the Great Lakes have some ice cover and much of the country has snow on the ground (parts of southern New England being the exception). Could be jumping the gun on this call, but the cold outbreak could be the worst in nearly a decade or at least rival what we saw in 2019 in terms of both coverage and intensity. 2019 was the last year we froze Lake Erie and that happened only briefly.  The question for Vermont and skiers is whether the shallow, stable and extreme arctic cold, with temperatures ranging from -15 to 10 above, will overwhelm the pattern entirely and limit the snowfall or whether the southeast ridge can stay potent enough to send a storm up the coast. We could see clipper systems also though many of those head south of us in these setups.  The pattern is expected to relax some after January 24th though I expect it to remain mostly cold for the duration of the month.

Lots of chances for lighter snows in the coming week and wind much less of a story

Sunshine made a nice return for Friday and although the wind is still blowing, it is finally beginning to abate. Was looking through my notes late this week and I believe this is the windiest stretch of weather I can remember, at least since the big arctic outbreak of early 2018. Speaking of big arctic outbreaks, we have one of those to discuss in the longer term and the shorter term forecast still has no big storms to discuss, but still multiple opportunities for snow from smaller disturbances. 

Much of the ski day on Saturday will have a steady light snow. We can expect a 2-4 inch snowfall on the mountain and maybe upwards of 5 inches if we get lucky. The respite from the wind will be very welcome though. Wind speeds won't drop to zero but they will be materially lighter than what they have been for the better part of the first 10 days of 2025. No snow for Sunday but a reasonably comfortable to ski with clouds and a few intervals of sun and temps in the low 20's. Winds will again get a little stronger Sunday though again, well short of we've experienced in recent days. With all the talk of wind, this is a good chance to point folks to the NWS BTV website for summit wind forecasts. The folks there do a good job with this product, but they put it in a difficult place to find which I've never understood considering how important they are. If you go to this page NWS BTV Recreation Forecasts and click on the tab that says "Higher Summits ", you get a good 48 hour forecast for summit conditions. You can even click on Mt Ellen on the map and get a site specific forecast and then another link is provided where you can get  hourly forecasts for all kinds of good stuff which is here - Mt Ellen Hourly Forecast.

The middle week of January (13th-17th) is shaping up to be a good one. No snow of any significance for Monday but it's a comfortable day with low winds and temperatures reaching the high 20's. A clipper system with limited moisture will make a slow approach on Tuesday. Snow is likely to begin during the ski day with very little accumulation. As winds turn toward the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, a more substantial accumulation of 3 or more inches appears likely. Blustery conditions make a return Wednesday and then more snow is possible for Thursday as a Vermont appears lined up for a decent warm advection light snow setup. Will any of that mild air make a temporary reach at northern Vermont and bring temperatures above freezing for Friday Jan 17 or Saturday the 18th? Certainly not impossible though the most important goal would be to avoid the rain or mixed precipitation and for now, this appears likely.

What a weather map we might be looking at for the MLK holiday. It's a weekend that has a history of producing significant storms and one is again possible thanks to a strong buildup of arctic cold to our north coinciding with an advance of milder air trying to work its way up the east coast. Tough to see what kind of specific outcome we might see but most of the simulations I've seen in recent days indicate the presence of organized storminess. What appears more likely is a very strong southward push of arctic cold in the middle of the country that could make headlines because of its intensity. New England is very likely to get a piece of this extreme cold either on or just after MLK day. Interestingly, the recent cold weather has the Great Lakes aggregate water temperatures and ice cover at their highest levels since 2019 which means any arctic cold is less moderated as it advances on the east coast. The Hudson Bay meanwhile, is finally close to freezing and is likely to do so within about a week. The 2nd slowest freeze since this data has been recorded.

 

No big storm for the weekend, yet Saturday is still a winner with both light snow and lighter wind

Factoring in the winds, northern Vermont was quite easily the coldest place in the entire country on Wednesday with most places well below 10 on actual temperature. We beat northern Maine which remains stuck in a warm eddy, we beat northern Minnesota, which doesn't have the wind and Jackson, WY which is currently 1 degree above, is expected to warm to about 15 degrees before the end of the day. Hand us a trophy ! Snow was a bit lighter than Tuesday but is expected to increase in the intensity and accumulate another 3-6 inches in the period between Wednesday night and midnight Friday. With the wind which is expected to continue through much of the ski day Friday before subsiding, it will be difficult to get a sense of the accumulation. Snow that has already fallen will blow around and snow that is falling will blow around and the upper mountains will have a lot of drifting, but if you've braved the elements up there already, I am sure it's common knowledge.

The snow is expected to taper to flurries on Friday and the sun should make some appearances, helping to boost temperatures closer to the 20 degree mark. As I mentioned, we will have to contend with the wind for one more day so dress accordingly. Saturday, has two things going for us. 1) A break from the strong winds 2) Some snowfall. The latter comes from a decaying clipper system still capable of delivering a 2-5 inch snowfall, most of which will occur during the ski day.The sun should make another limited appearance on Sunday and both days should feature daytime temperatures in the lower 20's on the mountain. 

The devastating fires in the Los Angeles area are a result of a brutal Santa Ana wind, a common byproduct of a pattern that favors cold weather in eastern North America and dry, stable weather across the west. The persistently negative EPO is the more important cause and there continues to be some evidence of more split flow after January 18th which would increases the chances of organized storminess after that. Until then, which constitutes the next 10 days, it will continue to be smaller disturbances and clipper systems that bring us snowfall. It appears we get a decent dose of the fluffy clipper-type snow in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame and perhaps some warm-advection related snowfall later in the week. The warm advection type snow precedes a temporary push of milder air which could be part of a more major storm system for MLK weekend or not. The colder pattern does support a strong outbreak of arctic cold hitting around MLK day which could be the strongest of the season so far. Still a terrific January pattern overall.

Intermittent light snow will pile up over a 3 day period ending Thursday, all part of a pattern expected to remain chilly and favorable through MLK Day

 Wind finally subsided for Monday and this allowed temperatures to within a few degrees of zero. After some sunshine to start the week, both clouds and wind are expected to return. We are dealing with a decent outbreak of widespread cold across the eastern United States and Vermont will see its proper dose. Readings on the mountain will struggle to get much above 10 degrees all the way through Thursday. Following a more comfortable wind day Monday, wind chills for the duration of the week will be well below zero. 

The Mid Atlantic snowstorm quickly exits and once it's well clear of the east coast, which it will be Tuesday morning, moisture will drip southward out of Canada and the snow begins to fall. This is an interesting meteorological setup as mentioned in a few previous posts. A broad conglomeration of storminess in the maritimes creates a large zone where moisture is allowed to work its way southward from the narrowing unfrozen section of the Hudson Bay. Now that we are closer to the forecast period in question, I took a glance at those stability parameters and discovered that the lowest boundary layer is actually quite stable. This particular snow setup involves a respectable but elevated area of moisture that will move over the entirety of northern Vermont and remain there over the coming days. The high country is still the most favored area for the highest snow totals, but valley areas will see some as well and we won't see a massive differentiation between snowfall rates on the mountain and in the valley. That being said, snow which should begin before daybreak Tuesday is likely to be rather continuous with a a few inches likely Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. I don't expect the snowfall to be especially intense at any given time, it will be generally be light with a few intervals where it won't be snowing. Still, we should see it continue to pile up accompanied by temperatures not far from 10 on the mountain and only a little better than that in valley areas. Wind gusts at the summits are expected to reach 40 again Tuesday and this is likely to continue through Thursday. The snow and the wind are expected to diminish Friday and the appearance of some limited sunshine will help boost temperatures toward the 20 degree mark. I expect 3 day snow totals to be in the 8-12 range though the uniqueness of the situation does increase the risk of a bust. 

The weather map at our mid latitudes might get more active beginning this weekend though we may not want it to be. Sporadic simulations are showing a Feb blizzard of '78 type setup with crippling snow in southern New England. If you follow certain personalities on social media, you may have seen  some of the maps from these cherry-picked models. Most of the models aren't showing the big storm and northern Vermont might prefer this outcome since a big storm to our south might hurt our new snow potential. No such storm keeps the door open for smaller doses of snow from clipper-like systems. The weather map could continue to evolve to a point where interior New England is for the heavy snow this weekend though this appears unlikely. 

Ensembles continue to show a temporary loss in teleconnection support early next week with temporary being the key word since it doesn't appear it will persist long enough to elevate the risk of a thaw or an rain. A ridge in the eastern Pacific is expected to strengthen at the end of next week, extend northward through Alaska while energy in the more tropical Pacific undercuts some of this. It's a terrific setup for persistent sub-freezing January temperatures. I especially love the support from the EPO since I was an admitted skeptic that we might successfully tame that beast for any length of time. One thing I should add about the longer range is that the split flow I just mentioned combined with a slight re centering of the mean trough in North America will mean more storminess after Jan 18. What that all might look like we will have to wait and see. The pieces are set up on the board the way we would want them ! 

Winter tightens its grip on Vermont over the next week with more wind and several days featuring at least light snowfall

Sub-freezing temperatures have been plastered all over our faces by ferocious winds over the past two days and similar to what was mentioned in the last update there's more where that came from thanks to storminess that is caught up near the Labrador Sea coastline. The setup brings some intriguing possibilities next week and it's gotten to the point where I am excited to see how and what transpires. 

A disturbance brought some snowfall to the Mid Atlantic states Friday and this helped clear the skies over northern Vermont though it was a very windy bluebird day. Weekend weather also looks windy, but not as much as the past two days. We make up for this with more clouds and colder temperatures with readings that should hover in the low to middle teens on the mountain and closer to 20 in valley areas. Limited moisture and the favorable flow should allow for some snowfall throughout both days and late Saturday into Saturday night appears to be the favored time slot for a 2-5 inch accumulation, mainly across the high country. We should expect some clearing late Sunday though I am not sure it arrives before the end of the ski day. 

The storm system on Monday appears to be a well organized system and has some moisture. Unfortunately, in this setup, its doinking off the right upright and out into the ocean, an unusual outcome and one that results from the closed area of storminess downstream that will prevent any northward turn. We will get another dose of sunshine out of the whole deal with good visibility on Monday. We can still expect some wind Monday though the subsequent days will be gustier.

Once the Washignton DC snow producing system departs, the door will come open and I hope the party begins. The storminess is expected to linger in eastern Canada allowing the relative warmth there to linger, clashing with much colder air over the frozen western portion of the Hudson Bay. A disorganized conveyor of moisture and snowfall is predicted to develop from all this and begin to drip into southern Quebec and northern New England as early as Tuesday. We have the perfect flow setup for this with north to northwest winds not only blowing this moisture toward us, but also enhancing the impact because of the Lake Champlain thermals. As we get closer, stability parameters might help us predict how heavy the snowfall could become though its quite possible its just moisture from the stalled out storm and not related to stability. Regardless, continuous snow is possible for Tuesday through Thursday and a period of heavier snow is being hinted at Wednesday night into Thursday. Expect strong winds and temperatures not far from 10 degrees while this is all going on which is less treacherous snow to drive in, but could really hamper visibility as wind blows the cold smoke all over the roads and highways.

The weather map finally evolves enough to offer a respite from the wind by the weekend of the 11th and 12th. We could see some snowfall from a clipper system if it comes at us in the right way. Mostly however, if will feel a lot more comfortable thanks to the lower wind speed and temperatures potentially 10 degrees warmer. 

Generally favorable setup remains in place through the start of MLK Day but ensembles on Friday are showing a temporary loss in teleconnection support around Jan 13-15 thanks mostly to a surge in AO values. A supportive NAO is helping to keep the upper air signal cool throughout the period and a nearly neutral EPO is expected to turn negative for MLK weekend. It all adds up to a less cold but continued wintry mid January outlook. The big synoptic storm appears elusive for the next 10 days and after that we could see some snowfall potential begin to emerge along those lines.

Snow Thursday, light snow this weekend and a lot of windy days thanks to a unique looking weather map

Snowfall early New Year's Day was underwhelming and might have served as decent foundation material had we received more of it. The corridor from Randolph north to Northfield seemed to fare better, scoring closer to 4 inches of the same dense mash that Mad River Glen got. The backend moist conveyor is finally delivering fluffier snowfall as temperatures continue to cool across the entire Green Mountain Spine.  Cooler temperatures have actually arrived in southern Vermont first, wrapping around the very mature cyclone now to our northeast. Snow will be enhanced by the unfrozen Lake Champlain and we should to well Thursday with temperatures in the 20's and 4-8 inches of new snow, 3-6 of which falls before the ski day and another 1-3 during. With the storm hovering over us much of New Year's Day, we managed to avoid the stronger wind gusts, but expect conditions to be very windy both Thursday and Friday with west-northwest winds gusting as higher than 50 mph at the summits. Higher resolution models do have the snowfall shifting northward Thursday night and Friday though some more sporadic snow showers should continue along with steady temperatures now mainly in the teens on the mountain and 20's in valley locations. Winds will remain strong through the weekend though not quite like Thursday, some light snowfall should be expected with a light accumulations one or both days and temperatures remaining in the teens and single numbers. Obviously wind chill temperatures will be much lower.

The forecast over the coming 10 days appears drier in the sense that models have been suppressing the impact of organized storminess to more southern areas of the eastern United States. The presence of the polar jet in January certainly has the propensity to do that. One weaker disturbance passing over the Mid-Atlantic on Friday is contributing to a less snowy outlook on January 3rd (for us) and the storm threat on January 6 also appears to be confined Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and perhaps the NYC metro and will have the impact making our outlook drier and likely sunnier early next week. All that said, the weather map appears uniquely intriguing and this is partially driven by the partially unfrozen Hudson Bay, and eastern Great Lakes. The current storm system is expected to pinwheel around eastern Canada for days and a fetch of moisture is indicated to drip southward toward northern New England next week. Hard to predict if substantial snow materializes from all this, but if it were it to happen, it's most likely during the middle of the week after the east coast storm (to our south) departs and before the approach of a late week clipper system. I might add that we can expect the wind to continue throughout much of next week thanks to this peculiar weather maps. Temperatures are likely to hover in the low teens on the mountain most of the time with the with wind and cloudiness limiting the temperature range between day and night. 

Cold outlook remains in place well beyond next week and the clipper system I alluded to is likely to bring a reinforcing blast of cold to much of the eastern United States by January 11th. The low pressure spinning in eastern Canada appears caught in a giant spider web thanks to this weather pattern. As the pattern evolves and the cold continues, the negative NAO or downstream jet stream blocking is driving this and appears to be limiting storm opportunities at least in model world. One thing I can safely say is that the risk of the rogue thaw has dropped for the first 3 weeks of January and the two inches of glop New Year's morning is likely to remain in place for MLK weekend.