Early winter weather binge finally ends with some heavy rain Friday while holiday outlook appears a bit better.

The early season winter binge, which has continued more or less since thanksgiving, is finally coming to an end. It will start with a bit of milder weather, ending sub-freezing stretch of weather that's persisted since the last few days of November and then the wet weather arrives early Friday and that rainfall is now expected to get  briefly heavy. 

The darkest period of the year has the advantage of providing a limited window for daytime warming. Often times, key layers above the earth's surface warm faster than the ground, creating a stable inversion that prevents a would-be onslaught of milder temperatures. Northern Vermont gets a little help with that through Wednesday. The weather map looks mild and would produce spring-like weather were the calendar be March. In December however, a cold single digit start to Tuesday will allow us to run out the daytime clock before temperatures climb to the freezing mark; instead, they will settle in the low 20's before falling back into the teens Tuesday night. Warm convection clouds are expected for much of the day Tuesday and the radar might have it look like some precipitation is headed our way for Wednesday, but that system is expected to fall apart. The gusty southwest winds are predicted to break the inversion described above and send temperatures up past the freezing mark by a few degrees. Those winds will actually settle down for Wednesday night allowing readings to fall back into the 20's. The ski day Thursday is expected to be comfortable and precipitation free and is likely to feature a decent period of sunshine.  Clouds will increase late in the as will the southerly winds and that's when the trouble begins. 

Friday's rain producing system never even gives us a chance. It got to the point where I just hoped the system might just fall to pieces and run out of available moisture to send at us. Unfortunately, that's not the direction things are headed. Low pressure is expected to cross the country, hugging the Canadian border for a time and then advancing into Quebec, deep into Quebec. It won't fully mature until it approaches the Labrador and that means lots of time suck moisture northward. Rain will begin in the early morning become heavy sometime during the morning and then end as some snow later in the day Friday. Temperatures and dewpoints are expected to rise into the 40's and hopefully the colder air will arrive quick enough to prevent too much damage. I expect the combination of wind and rain will take out most of  the snow in valley areas while I think the snowpack takes a good punch but survives over the high country . 

For as bad as Friday's rain event looks, I am encouraged with the holiday outlook today. As I've mentioned, much of the south and a good section of the central United States have a very mild looking weather pattern. The interior northeast ? Not so much. The jet stream will continue to support holding the core of the coldest air across western North America, and much of that will be confined to Canada. Some of the cold is expected to split off and take position in eastern Canada and is generally expected to keep Vermont away from the milder air. Models have also shown the possibility for winter weather, both around the time of the Winter Solstice this upcoming Sunday and Christmas day