It was another cold bluebird December powder day Monday across the state of Vermont. It is especially unusual to see cold this intense so early in the winter season since the pattern is required to funnel arctic cold in a very particular direction. We managed to get a widespread outbreak of sub-zero cold Friday morning and a second such occurrence is expected Monday night thanks to the clear skies and light winds.
Following that sub-zero Tuesday morning, temperatures are expected to warm to about 20 degrees in spite of clouds. Light snow will fall from those clouds later in the evening and accumulate about an inch by Wednesday morning. The ski day Wednesday will feature the mildest weather of the week with readings getting pretty close to the freezing mark as southerly flow tries to establish itself. The milder wind direction is in response to an approaching weather system, the strongest of the week, expected to approach us from the eastern Great Lakes. Recent model runs have managed to move this system a little further south, yet the track is still falling short of idea with the area of low pressure expected to track near the Canadian border Wednesday evening. In spite of this, models still indicate a decent period of snow later Wednesday, enough to produce a 2-4 inch snow. The risk of over-promising on these type of storms is high so I would suggest that although accumulating snow is likely in the MRV, much more is likely from Stowe northward.
The flow is expected to turn and become west-northwesterly late Wednesday night and with that comes a window where snow showers can be expected. I was hoping this storm would be capable of producing a more extended window, persisting into Thursday, when snow showers might add to the accumulation, but with this event models are limiting this. After the 2-4 late Wednesday, we can expect another 1-4 Wednesday night with higher snow totals farther north. Conditions will be blustery Thursday with readings hovering in the high teens before falling into the single numbers Thursday night. Before I sign off on snowfall for late in the week, it is possible that a smaller disturbance enhances the snow shower activity for Thursday night or early Friday. Later Friday should feature some sunshine however as storm system well south of us acts as the focusing mechanism for moisture, precipitation and clouds.
The upcoming weekend is lined up to be very wintry. At the very least we can expect clouds with the chance for some light snow on Saturday. The Sunday weather map consists of a possible more organized storm that could bring snowfall anywhere between some of the bigger east coast cities to interior New England. With the early winter polar jet quite involved in the pattern, getting a handle on the eventual track can take a little longer. Regardless, temperatures will be well below freezing and will land in the teens on the mountain on both the weekend ski days. A strong dose of arctic chill is then expected to get driven into eastern North America by the aforementioned polar jet later Sunday and Sunday night. With that is likely some well below zero wind chills and a chilly Monday December 15th.
The longer range has shifted to the less cold side in recent days. The pattern across North America is still being anchored by a really nice blocking couplet in the jet stream centered over the middle Pacific. Downstream of that, the cold is indicated to shift its focus on the western part of the continent more, mainly the Pacific Northwest along with the Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Alberta. Promising warmer weather for the south-central and southeastern United States is easy, but we still expect arctic cold to remain anchored across most of Canada. The pattern toward the solstice offers the possibility of short-lived rainy intrusion with two caveats. 1) The milder weather should not persist beyond 1-2 days and the possibility for a bigger snowfall will continue if the dominoes fall the right way.
No comments:
Post a Comment