Sunshine made a nice return for Friday and although the wind is still blowing, it is finally beginning to abate. Was looking through my notes late this week and I believe this is the windiest stretch of weather I can remember, at least since the big arctic outbreak of early 2018. Speaking of big arctic outbreaks, we have one of those to discuss in the longer term and the shorter term forecast still has no big storms to discuss, but still multiple opportunities for snow from smaller disturbances.
Much of the ski day on Saturday will have a steady light snow. We can expect a 2-4 inch snowfall on the mountain and maybe upwards of 5 inches if we get lucky. The respite from the wind will be very welcome though. Wind speeds won't drop to zero but they will be materially lighter than what they have been for the better part of the first 10 days of 2025. No snow for Sunday but a reasonably comfortable to ski with clouds and a few intervals of sun and temps in the low 20's. Winds will again get a little stronger Sunday though again, well short of we've experienced in recent days. With all the talk of wind, this is a good chance to point folks to the NWS BTV website for summit wind forecasts. The folks there do a good job with this product, but they put it in a difficult place to find which I've never understood considering how important they are. If you go to this page NWS BTV Recreation Forecasts and click on the tab that says "Higher Summits ", you get a good 48 hour forecast for summit conditions. You can even click on Mt Ellen on the map and get a site specific forecast and then another link is provided where you can get hourly forecasts for all kinds of good stuff which is here - Mt Ellen Hourly Forecast.
The middle week of January (13th-17th) is shaping up to be a good one. No snow of any significance for Monday but it's a comfortable day with low winds and temperatures reaching the high 20's. A clipper system with limited moisture will make a slow approach on Tuesday. Snow is likely to begin during the ski day with very little accumulation. As winds turn toward the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, a more substantial accumulation of 3 or more inches appears likely. Blustery conditions make a return Wednesday and then more snow is possible for Thursday as a Vermont appears lined up for a decent warm advection light snow setup. Will any of that mild air make a temporary reach at northern Vermont and bring temperatures above freezing for Friday Jan 17 or Saturday the 18th? Certainly not impossible though the most important goal would be to avoid the rain or mixed precipitation and for now, this appears likely.
What a weather map we might be looking at for the MLK holiday. It's a weekend that has a history of producing significant storms and one is again possible thanks to a strong buildup of arctic cold to our north coinciding with an advance of milder air trying to work its way up the east coast. Tough to see what kind of specific outcome we might see but most of the simulations I've seen in recent days indicate the presence of organized storminess. What appears more likely is a very strong southward push of arctic cold in the middle of the country that could make headlines because of its intensity. New England is very likely to get a piece of this extreme cold either on or just after MLK day. Interestingly, the recent cold weather has the Great Lakes aggregate water temperatures and ice cover at their highest levels since 2019 which means any arctic cold is less moderated as it advances on the east coast. The Hudson Bay meanwhile, is finally close to freezing and is likely to do so within about a week. The 2nd slowest freeze since this data has been recorded.
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