It's become tradition for a significant snow producer to hit on MLK weekend at Mad River Glen. It's happened so many times; in fact, that I almost have come to expect that kind of trend in modeling as the period approaches. So far however, we've yet to see it. Weather is certainly a big story with plenty to discuss including some snowfall, yet the big storm is proving to be a bit elusive so far. That said, conditions have been excellent with the recent run of cold weather and the cumulative impact of all the nickle and dime events.
More powder and a little bit of midday and afternoon sunshine certainly turns Wednesday into a winner. Temperatures in the low teens and a stiff breeze will make it the coldest day of the week though it certainly will pale in comparison to conditions last week. Winds will abate for Thursday and Friday and clouds are expected to prevail both days, but accumulating snow appears less likely with much of the limited moisture focused on areas both south and west of Vermont.
The story for the weekend goes like this. The chess pieces are set for a massive winter southward surge of arctic cold poised to overspread much of the continent. On Saturday, we'll remain out ahead of all that arctic air and southwest winds will boost temperatures up toward the 30-degree mark. The push of milder air will provide us with a period of light snow for Saturday and an accumulation of a few inches. The system in question doesn't appear organized unfortunately and the wave of low pressure expected to form later in the weekend is likely to focus the winter weather on snow-starved southern New England though things can certainly change. The bigger story is the temperatures. After the relatively mild day Saturday, readings will plunge into the teens on Sunday and then close to zero on Monday. Unless we see some material changes with how any subsequent storm might impact New England Sunday into Monday, the shallow, bitterly cold arctic air is likely going cut down on potential snowfall amounts late in the holiday period. I am at the risk of bear hugging current model simulations which always change especially with the polar jet on the prowl so stay tuned.
Bitterly cold temperatures and wind dominate the weather story for Monday and Tuesday with some sunshine being the small consolation prize. Recent model simulations are suggesting some light snowfall toward the middle of the week from warm advection following what should be a decent stretch of sub-zero temperatures. The later part of next week should feature a moderation in temperatures and some potential storminess along the east coast has at least at giving us something. I tend to think we have a better chance at a significant storm during the last week of January where its indicated that milder air across the southeast battles it out with arctic air which is expected continue to have a presence over southern Canada, the Great lakes region and portions of the west-central US.
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