Ever so slowly, winter is creeping back into the forecast picture across Vermont. Lots of weather systems to discuss in this update and it all adds up to a lot of snow potential (and bust potential). It will also need additional updating since many of these fast moving weather features are not being handled with the highest degree of certainty by the various forecast models. Much of all this results from a tale of extremes in both directions. Unrelenting cold has been impacting Alaska for pretty much all of March and continues to do so as of late this week. Much of that cold is forecast to move east over central Canada for the rest of this month. Meanwhile, a spring heat wave of historic proportions has begun over the desert southwest region. The high temperature in Phoenix, AZ is expected to be 105 on Saturday which would tie an all time record high for the month of April. Ski areas in the southern Rocky Mountains will certainly get impacted by this warmth; some of which, will move out into the southern plains next week. The weather systems I mentioned, largely result from this temperature clash which is expected to persist though the weekend of March 27th and 28th.
For some reason, every season seems to have a favorite day of the week. Like the cycle of impactful storms have a propensity to hit on the same day of the week and this year's favorite day has been both weekend days. We have more snow lined up for late on Friday that would again bring some life for Saturday although this storm is running a little warm for my liking. It's a warm advection feature meaning that the snowfall is a result of the warm air trying to dislodge the existing cold. Eventually it will do that after 3-5 inches of snow fall on the mountain Friday evening and this might allow the precipitation to briefly change to rain or freezing rain. Either way, expect the consistency of the snowfall to be on the wetter side with temperatures at or just below the freezing mark. Early clouds should give way to blue sky for the ski day on Saturday. Valley areas might get above the freezing mark while areas above 2000 feet should stay to the chilly side of that with falling dewpoints. Readings will then fall toward 20 Saturday night and should be close to that number for early Sunday.
The Sunday/Monday weather situation is sure getting interesting, yet we don't have all the cattle in the barn as of yet. A broad low pressure conglomeration is expected to move out into the central plains on Sunday. It's an expansive system, fueled by the temperature variations I mentioned though it will not have a lot of moisture, which for us is good since the maturation process will be slower than the last big system we saw. Clouds and snowfall are expected for Sunday and this is expected very early. This moisture, being shown by pretty every weather model, is well out ahead of the developing low pressure area yet is still capable of producing several inches of snow during the ski day Sunday. What happens with the main area of low pressure later Sunday into Monday will ultimately determine whether or not we can make a big snow producing system out of this. We've got about two and a half models (The GFS, GEM and EURO AI) saying this is a real possibility now while the OG Euro is holding back only somewhat. Given the support from some of the ensembles regarding this system. A 1-2 foot storm is starting to look really possible. It's important to mention that the cold air support is certainly there, especially as we get to the Monday part of this storm. So long as the track cooperates, the strong area of arctic cold I mentioned over Canada will have a chance to make its mark and make this a powdery event on the mountain. It's all about that storm trajectory which appears a lot better as of today.
Cold weather follows, safely keeping the mountain below the freezing mark through Tuesday. Reinforcing cold then arrives for Wednesday accompanied by a bit of snow followed by a bit of clearing. We then have another weather system lined up for Thursday and so long as we stay on the colder side of that one, and it's close, more accumulating snow is likely. It's a consistent theme that relies on a simple premise. Stay on the cold side of this incoming temperature clash and the snow will fly. In the case of Thursday, much of the country will be very warm and that mild air might be as far north and east as Philadelphia and to a lesser degree NYC where the Phillies nad Mets are scheduled to host baseball home openers. It's actually more certain that the last full weekend of March will be wintry as ensembles seem to be an agreement that we are on the receiving end of a cold jet stream amplification. Early April, once we get there, appears a bit different when a clear warmer signal is shown covering much of the eastern United States.
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