Spent some time over the past few updates describing the intensity of the incoming warmth We still have that warmth and it continues to look pretty intense especially during the early to middle part of next week. The warm weather appears to be a 4-5 day problem if you see it from that vantage point. Perhaps you're looking forward to some corn snow and with little doubt we have plenty of that coming. If you want a colder weather trend however we have that also. Some of that for the end of the current week and more of that following the warmth after March 11th.
It's not hard for blue sky in March to send temperatures soaring. This certainly was the case for Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, we have very little of that; in fact, the low level push of chill continues to defy the weather pattern and is even likely to produce a wintry result if you can believe it. Temperatures will start on the milder side Thursday, essentially near the freezing mark. The push of low level cold looks both stronger and arrives earlier however and will effectively hold readings in place through much of the day. Lots of precipitation on the east coast weather map for Thursday, yet all of it will remain south of us through the ski day and a chunk of the evening. Gradually however, the shield of moisture will push north and it's likely snow that falls for a time during the overnight, changing to some sleet or freezing rain before dawn Friday. Some preliminary high resolution output shows some significant icing in southern and even central Vermont Thursday night so please make note of that. In our case, staying on the north edge of the precipitation shield will hopefully keep us out of most of the ice and in a light snow situation that ends before dawn and is capable of yielding a small accumulation of less than 3 inches. It's worth keeping an eye on this given the trends. Snow would have seemed impossible in this weather pattern 5-7 days ago look what's evolving.
I mentioned in the last update that the low level clouds (low visibility) and chill is likely to linger through early Saturday and eventually get flushed out later Saturday, letting the March mild push wash over the region from southwest to northeast. A good part of Saturday's ski day could feature readings in the 30's until the very end, where the push of warmth arrives. Showers or periods of lighter rain are possible throughout the day. Sunday appears dry with both blue ski possible and better visibility likely. It's a cold front that pushes the weather out, but it's the kind of front that will actually allow daytime temperatures to be milder. Sunday appears to be 40-plus on the mountain and maybe 50-plus in valley areas.
The warmth is expected to intensify on Monday with any sunshine pushing readings to near 60 in valley areas and 50's on the mountain. The upper level pattern and some model output would suggest the warmest day to be Wednesday with the threat of both wind and rain accompanying the mild weather. There are more hints today that we could avoid such an outcome with a weather system tracking close enough to prevent the warmest of scenarios. If I had to guess on the eventual outcome, I would say that 3 days are 50-plus on the mountain and one is close to 60. Certainly it appears very difficult to avoid the rainfall, some of which happens on the aforementioned Saturday and more is likely for the middle of next week.
And then it's colder and more wintry again. The EPO is shown to weaken and that's accompanied by the development of more blocking over the northeastern Eurasian continent. The weather pattern doesn't appear capable of sustaining this cold for the duration of March. It does look like it could be particularly intense over a period of 5 days and could even produce yet another mid-March winter storm much like we've had on so many other winters this century. It also could evolve some rather serious arctic chill so don't put the winter coats and extra layers away just yet.
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