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Saturday, January 13, 2007

8-15 inches of snow and a little sleet from MLK storm

MLK storm details
Like a classic sibling rivalry, the European and American models continue to duke it out over the MLK storm. My opinion on the outcome hasn't changed much, just fine tuned a bit. I am not going to split the difference between the models but instead side more with the European which has more support now from the higher resolution NAM as of late this morning. The track of the surface storm in the above mentioned scenario would be from southern Illinois through extreme northern Pennsylvania and finally across southern New England to the coast. This would place much of central and northern Vermont in the heart of the QPF (geek speak term for moisture) and would involve healthy amounts of snow although precipitation might change to or mix with sleet later in the day Monday. Specifically speaking, I think anywhere between 1-3 inches falls by Monday morning followed by 3-6 inches of snow and sleet during the day Monday and then 4-6 inches of mostly snow Monday night. This would leave us with a grand total of 8-15 inches of snow and sleet before it turns much colder Tuesday. The American model suggests that all of the precipitation falls as snow only that there is is not as much. This solution assumes a much weaker system which tracks much further south which I don't agree with since I think the model is under-phasing the storm with the incoming polar branch of jet stream.

Champlain powder Tuesday Night
Hard to predict amounts but there does appear to be an extended period of time Tuesday night when winds are directed over the longer fetch of Lake Champlain to Stark Mountain yielding additional powder. Temps will be well below zero Wednesday morning but there will be fresh snow to ski at MRG.

Long Range
No changes right now but I will have a full update tomorrow evening when hopefully we can shed some more light on the weekend of the 20th and 21st.

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