Snow showers will continue with a final round Saturday afternoon while Monday weather continues to appear outstanding

It never sat right with me that Mad River Glen hadn't recorded the two-foot April storm that seem to occur so frequently in March. Climatologically speaking, it feels like something that should happen once or twice a decade and yet it hasn't in the 20 years I've been doing this, that is until the last two days. It's a challenge to overcome the power of the April sun angle, which, even with temperatures remaining below freezing on the mountain, managed to make for some wetter snow conditions below 2,500 feet. I thought we might perform better Friday with the snow shower machine, but the disorganized remnants of our recent storm's moist conveyor targeted the Adirondacks and only grazed parts of the Green Mountains. Still this is expected to continue for a time Friday night, break for a bit early Saturday and then more snow showers, some heavy, appear likely Saturday afternoon. Temperatures on Saturday will behave much as they did Friday. Sunday is expected to be a little warmer with the snow having departed and sunshine making a late day appearance. When will the corn show up ? That typically happens after the wet snow gets a chance to freeze with a chilly overnight and subsequently softens to corn with a warm day. Very good chance that happens on Monday, but parts of the mountain could see that on Sunday as well. 

Solar eclipse Monday just looks outstanding and we are almost figuratively and literally in the clear. 25-30 degree temperatures in the morning will become 50-55 degree temperatures during the afternoon and almost 60 in valley locations. We should see clear blue skies in the morning and light winds. 3 computer simulations and one package of statistical guidance suggests that sunshine continues through evening. 1 computer model simulations brings a thin layer of high cloudiness to Vermont Monday afternoon. Not every run of this European model has suggested this outcome, but it was suggested Friday afternoon so I don't want to mislead the reader and guarantee good viewing. The potential clouds are the innocuous high cirrus kind, blowing off the top of a rainy weather system in Wisconsin. They would have to power jet stream ridge to our west which doesn't seem likely to me yet weather will always manage to suprise you. 

Following our eclipse day we will take another big step into spring. Cool high pressure will slip in from for the north after Tuesday, putting a stop to the 50-60 degree weather. That said, we are looking at a lot of above freezing temperatures and a surge of warmth and potentially heavy rain Thursday night into Friday (April 11-12). We will have to keep an eye on this one for flooding because the mountains have some deep late season snow pack and this system late next week is capable of bringing high winds and higher dewpoints with it. Cooler weather is being advertised on the ensembles after April 13 and that should include some below freezing overnights even if our days continue to see a mix of 40's and 50's. 

Total accumulations appear lower for the northern Vermont high country, but hard to complain about 20-40 inches and a promising solar eclipse outlook !

Our April winter storm forecast is in need of an update and our solar eclipse forecast always needs attention and I will work to provide both. Not sure there has ever been a period in early April where weather intel is in such high demand in Vermont. 

Our storm has been coming together early Wednesday as is expected to track in between Cape Cod and Boston Thursday evening. That's a damn good trajectory for any winter storm and when this is combined with the expected slow speed of this weather system, snow totals in the northern Vermont high country continue to have an extraordinary ceiling. All that good stuff said, some complicating issues have emerged to keep the loftiest of my expectations in check. 

The first concern is a tiny warm layer that high resolution models are projecting will impact precipitation type Wednesday evening. The layer of above freezing is way up above 10,000 feet and it remains pretty small, small enough in fact that the snow could fall right through it so long as its falling at a decent rate. This feature is only present for a small part of the storm and is expected to be gone by around midnight Thursday. Snow, sleet and near 32 degree temperatures will allow for a messy few inches of base layer accumulations before snow begins falling heavily early Thursday morning with temperatures dropping into the high 20's. The snow is expected to continue for much of the day Thursday, falling heavily at times with gusty northeast winds. The base layer of sleet with drier snow falling on top should be pretty ideal for afternoon skiing. 

The 2nd concern is less concern and more of a limiting factor. The initial Great Lakes low proved to be a formidable storm and is expected to compete with the slow moving coastal low for dominance Thursday and Thursday night. Ultimately we continue to expect a consolidated system to take shape, albeit an occluded one, in the Gulf of Maine Friday, but this process is now expected to take a little longer than I initially anticipated. With the remnants of the initial low pressure area expected to slowly sag southeast over Pennsylvania Thursday, the storm will have a more elongated shape and this makes me a little nervous about any assumption that we will just sit in the moist conveyor for two days and easily procure 50 inches. Regardless, I still have some very optimistic assumptions and continue to think that we sit in an ideal area for continuous elevation snowfall Thursday night, Friday and early Saturday. The sleet Wednesday evening combined with some less giddy expectations Thursday night, Friday and Saturday lower my total snowfall accumulations yet this remains the best snow event I've seen in April in the 20 years of doing this. 

Snow Outlook 

Wednesday evening/night valley: Snow/sleet 3-6 dense accumulation by morning

Wednesday evening night mountains: Snow/sleet 4-8 dense accumulation by morning

Thursday day valley: Occasional snow with 3-6 wet inches

Thursday day mountain: Snow, sometimes heavy, drier accumulation above 2,500 feet 6-12 inches

Thursday night valley: Occasional snow 1-2 inches

Thursday night mountain: Occasional snow 3-6 inches 

Friday day valley: Periodic snow showers as existing snow melts. Not much accumulation

Friday day mountains: Occasional snow with another 3-6 inches and powdery above 2,500 feet

Friday night into Saturday valley: Flurries and snow showers, just a light accumulation. 

Friday night into Saturday mountains: Snow Showers and another 4-8 inches. 

Totals: 

Valley areas: Snow/sleet late Wednesday, thump snow early Thursday and snow melt Friday and Saturday even as mountains continue to add to totals. 8-16" expected total

Mountains: Snow/sleet early, more powdery above 2,500 feet Thursday, Friday and into early Saturday with 20-40" expected over the 3-4 days.

Solar eclipse Monday still looks pretty good. Sunshine is expected to return for Sunday and clear skies Sunday night should allow temperatures to dip into the 20's Monday morning. The morning hours on the 8th are expected to be nearly cloudless. During the afternoon hours there's some risk that a decaying area of clouds can have a presence but a total overcast appears unlikely. It looks like an outstanding for outdoor activities with temperatures in the low 50's and low winds.

Over 30 inches of high elevation snow Wednesday through early Saturday and a high risk of sunshine on April 8

When it comes to April weather conditions in Vermont, I usually don't get a chance to say a lot of nice things. Snow-melt, mud, clouds, wind, low visibility and sometimes a combination of all 5 are often a major part of our outlook. With that in mind, I will put out the disclaimer that this particular forecast is no April Fool's joke and might be the best I have given for any part of Vermont during this slog of a spring month. There's a lot at stake with our late-blooming ski season still going strong and a full solar eclipse expected on April 8th, but we appear to be ready with our A-game so lets go ! 

Our upcoming winter storm has moved out into the central plains Monday. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is feeding a strengthening low pressure area as it makes its initial push toward the western Great Lakes by Tuesday. This primary low pressure area is formidable and will bring both wind and accumulating snow to much of Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday night. Meanwhile, cold dry is in the process of wedging itself underneath a Davis Strait jet stream block. This key feature will help ultimately reconfigure the weather map in a very winter-friendly way for northern Vermont. The initial Great Lakes low pressure area will occlude and a new coastal low quickly intensify somewhere in the vicinity of the Delaware Bay by Wednesday and proceed northeastward from there. Snow will develop by midday Wednesday and be heavy enough to accumulate, even below 1,000 feet. 

I don't want to kid myself or the reader. Early April is early April and multiple feet of powdery snow in the river valleys is a very difficult ask. Wet snowfall will be substantial however and could again bring with it some power outage risk  during the "thump" portion of this upcoming storm late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Higher elevations will also see wetter snowfall late on Wednesday, but conditions appear to be cold enough at high elevations first and lower basebox elevations later to support a drier snowfall, especially as it gets darker Wednesday evening. Accumulations will be substantial in this early portion of the storm, exceeding a foot on the mountains and reaching the 6-12 category in lower elevations.

Late Wednesday is just the beginning. The elevation sensitive and colder part of our programming begins Thursday and it is an impressive setup. The coastal low near Cape Cod will continue to push northeast, but at a very, very low speed. This will allow the upper air support and decayed occluded Midwest low to catch up and allow for a more consolidated east coast storm by midday Thursday. Even as valley locations continue to see occasional bursts of wet snowfall with above-freezing temperatures, the mountains will be receiving heavier, even drier snowfall with colder temperatures. Valley areas are unlikely to see more than a foot of snow on the ground at any point during the storm even as snowfall amounts approach 2 feet at and above 3000 feet by late Thursday. Furthermore, the very slow-footed personality of this storm will allow snowfall to keep going and going. Thursday night, Friday, Friday night into early Saturday the snow will continue to fall, finally tapering off with some sun potentially returning for late Saturday which is just incredible. Snowfall, which again, is unlikely to ever produce a snow cover of more than a foot in valley areas, is likely to exceed 30 inches at 3,000 feet with much of it relatively dry and falling over a span of 3 days. As one ski's toward the base on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, snow consistency is certainly subject to change, but I don't expect temperatures on the upper mountain to reach above-freezing levels in a material way until Sunday. Here is my more detailed view of snow accumulations with valley locations defined as areas as areas near the Waitsfield covered bridge and mountains defined as areas around 3,000 feet. I'll leave it to the reader to extrapolate on the in-between. 

Snow Outlook 

Wednesday afternoon valley: Late Day snow wet 2-4 " 

Wednesday afternoon mountain: Late Day snow wet 3-6" 

Wednesday night valley: Thump wet 4-8" 

Wednesday night mountain: Thump powder/some wet 6-12" 

Thursday day valley: Occasional snow 1-3" wet inches with melting

Thursday day mountain: Snow, sometimes heavy and a more powdery 6-12" 

Thursday night valley: Occasional snow 1-3 wet inches 

Thursday night mountain:Snow, sometimes heavy and a more powdery 6-12" 

Friday day valley: Snow showers, little to no accumulations, melting and mud 

Friday day mountains: Snow showers, sometimes heavy and a more powdery 3-6" 

Friday night into Saturday valley: Flurries and snow showers, just a light accumulation. 

Friday night into Saturday mountains: Snow Showers and another 3-6 inches. 

Totals: 

Valley areas a very wet 8-16 with never more than a foot on the ground 

Mountains: Some wet snow early, more powder Thursday, Friday and into early Saturday with 27-54 inches.

And I won't neglect the promising solar eclipse outlook for April 8. We are checking a lot of the right boxes, the most important of which is a well defined jet stream ridge axis that is setting up to our west. The conglomeration of clouds and unsettled weather is finally expected to push off shore by Sunday allowing for a nearly full day of sunshine and warmer afternoon temperatures. Monday has the potential to be even better atop some deep snow cover across the high country. Temperatures on Monday should approach 50 and exceed that in valley areas with plenty of sunshine to start the day. My only concern is the lack of unsettled weather in the south which does keep the door open a tad for a pesky jet disturbance to bring some scattered cloudiness to northern New England during the afternoon. If I had to forecast cloudcover in percentages (with 100 percent being overcast) right now, I would put Monday at no more than 30 percent which is pretty darn good this time of the year. I would rather be us than areas in the path of the solar eclipse to our south and west. 

Major early April snow event is very possible during the middle part of next week !

The doubters were out there on social media and the declarations were made. To be fair some of them covered regions that are farther south or closer to the coast and that's fine. At least up in our neck of skiable woods, winter is most certainly not over and the prevailing weather pattern continues to consist of a large blocking feature centered over the Davis Strait and this feature is actually expected to strengthen over the next 5 days and support what could be a sizeable early April winter weather event in northern Vermont. More on that in a minute ! 

Our upcoming holiday Easter weekend is a quiet one in the meantime.Clouds give way to some sunshine for Friday with some strong northwest winds. These winds will diminish somewhat on Saturday while a weak weather impulse manages to focus clouds and precipitation far enough to our south to allow for some sunshine on Saturday. Easter Sunday will feature sunshine in valley locations but more clouds and snow flurries over the high country. All three days will feature some above freezing temperatures during the day, sub-freezing temperatures during the night and only a minimal amount of snow melt thanks to dry air. Enjoy our periods of sun because the upcoming week following Easter promises to be a cloudy one. 

Cold air over the arctic and across Canada has weakened as it always does by late March into April, but what's left is expected to establish a presence in Vermont Sunday night and remain  in place through much of the week. A large low pressure area is expected to emerge out of the eastern Rockies on Monday. It is assuredly going to create outbreaks of severe weather in the early part of next week in the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east. The storm is on a collision course with the Great Lakes and New England and the Davis Straight blocking is keeping us in play for a major winter weather event even as temperatures continue to rise above freezing during the day Monday and Tuesday following more sub-freezing nights.  Lots of particulars need to be sorted and details will evolve gradually yet there are early indications of precipitation beginning in the back half of  Tuesday as snow or mixed precipitation. The storm is expected to slow in speed while intensifying near the New England coastline. It's a classic New England  hang on to your hang-ups scenario and presents ski country (at least the one we care about) with amazing possibilities late Wednesday into Thursday, perhaps one of the best April snow events in recent memory. It's still early in this forecasting game and things do tend to to change, shift, evolve and so forth so we should expect that, but stay tuned and don't put your ski's away ! 

Even more encouraging news relates to the cloud cover. As cloudy as the first week in April appears, a more promising picture is starting to emerge for the first full weekend in April and most importantly April 8. The ideal scenario for minimal cloud cover for early spring Vermont is for northwest flow aloft at jet stream level with more potent areas of unsettled weather well south and east of us. That is somewhat of the picture being drawn in the varying ensemble packages though its always close. Certainly there is a stronger signal for a high pressure area to clear the cloudiness away for April 7th and we can only hope that continues into April 8th as well. 

More snow is "possible" Thursday night into Friday as cooler weather pattern expected to prevail through our solar eclipse day of April 8

Deep snow now covers all of the northern Vermont high country and I had anticipated a relatively tranquil more spring-like week including some warm afternoons and not more than one day with some light precipitation. Some of what was described continues to be a part of the current weather picture, but I would describe the outlook as a whole as being cooler and more unsettled and this includes additional chances for snowfall across the mountains. 

The deep snow cover has brought some chilly nights to Vermont. Readings fell to the single numbers Monday morning and are expected to fall into the teens once again early on Tuesday morning before southerly winds power readings back into the 40's in spite of more cloudiness during the ski day.  These clouds will keep readings warmer Tuesday night and also prevent temperatures from rising beyond the 40's on Wednesday as our next storm system begins to take shape. Moisture from this initially disorganized storm will stream northward and bring some occasional light rain to Vermont during the day, before moving eastward toward the coastline Wednesday night. This general outcome has been the consensus expectation for a few days now, but recent models are suggesting that the coastal low pressure center will strengthen more dramatically, attain a negative tilt  and position itself near Cape Cod Thursday night. If this trend continues we will see more rain on Thursday with that rain changing to snowfall Thursday night into Friday. I've yet to see enough conclusive confirmation of this change in the outlook to suggest another significant snowfall is likely, but it certainly has my attention and another elevation sensitive snowfall is certainly a slight possibility before the last full weekend of March. 

The aforementioned last full weekend in March looks cool with sub-freezing nights and only slightly above freezing days on the mountain and this general theme is expected to continue through much of the first full week in April.  The week also appears unsettled with at least one opportunity for mixed precipitation or snow (likely Monday or Tuesday). I see no opportunity through April 5th where readings will climb above 50 on the mountain and several are likely to stay below 40. 

 The time has also come for some early April 8th prognostications. It will be around that time when the focal point for cool, unsettled weather is expected to shift offshore yet there remains some lingering ridging in the Davis Strait region and forcing in the Pacific continues to favor cooler weather in mid-latitude weather more generally. I am pretty convinced that the ski season will be alive and well in the MRV with deep snow pack prevailing above 2,000 feet and more patchy snow cover enduring below that. If we can achieve some northwest flow at jet stream level, a real possibility if we can push the unsettled weather off the coast, we really improve our prospects for a clearer sky.

Storm to deliver 1-2 feet of powder during the ski day on Saturday

What an incredible week it's been already at Mad River Glen. It's been both productive in the snowfall department and entertaining one to experience as a weather enthusiast. It's a been a warm year and a warm month with temperatures across the state averaging at least 7 above the climatologal average. Snowfall has been especially elevation sensitive throughout the entire year and that trend only amplified both this month and week. Snow showers and squalls continue to dust valley locations with an inch or two and then repeatedly the sun would come out and melt everything down to the bare ground. The mountains have gotten a lot more than a few inches from these snow bursts and very little has melted and the powder pretty deep over a solid base of existing snow. The wintry scenes over the mountains parlay nicely with the anticipation of a big grand finale this Saturday, a storm that appears locked in for the entirety of northern Vermont. Even valley areas will find a hard time avoiding accumulating snow out of this one.

The big ingredient Saturday's storm has which many other events have lacked is cold air. The polar vortex lives in late March and has spent the week chilling in the vicinity of the Hudson Bay. A big southern streamer, still fueled by the weakening El Nino, will be pushing eastward Friday through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. To the naked eye, it doesn't appear as if the polar and southern branch of the jet stream can come into phase and produce a storm of any significance, yet Vermont will get big snow anyway. Rather then suppress moisture, a polar jet impulse will have the effect of pulling moisture from this storm northward into the cold air and  creating a large area of heavy overrunning snowfall for northern New England and rainfall for southern New England. It all begins in the predawn hours Saturday as steady snow quickly becomes heavy snow and persists throughout the ski day. There's enough warm air above us for some sleet to mix in with the snow from time to time, but enough cold air at the surface to keep the snow consistency powdery on the mountain. Snow should taper off rather abruptly just as it gets dark on Saturday with accumulations of 1-2 feet. I am glad I didn't overthink this one else, I might have written it off a few days ago. Weather can always defy conventional wisdom if given enough opportunities and this one appears to be one of those instances. 

Temperatures should remain in the 20's on the mountain through Saturday and winds are expected to be a modest 10-20 mph. A east to southeast direction has had a history of being a little problematic and this is expected during the morning before winds shift and become northeast then north during the afternoon. This is certainly not a historically strong storm, but we appear to be in a great spot for heavy snowfall. 

Sunshine is expected to return for Sunday and continue into Monday. Sub-freezing temperatures most of Sunday should keep the snow drier across high elevations before milder temperatures Monday afternoon bring on another round of spring conditions. This weather pattern continues to be capable of producing some cold though the focus will shift westward over the middle of the continent and milder temperatures are thus expected to prevail over Vermont for the duration of the week. This means 40's on the mountain every day and the possibility of rain in the middle of the week. Ensembles suggest some colder weather and snowfall could return early in April. 

The upcoming week promises to be the best of the season for us and I hope everyone can enjoy it !

 

Very wintry week with snowfall expected almost every day through Thursday

Winter-like temps and snow showers have returned to the northern Vermont country and I am expecting a very interesting next 3-4 days of weather. It begins rather immediately as a deep layer of instability, not atypical of early Spring, but impressive regardless, establishes itself over the state. The vertical cross section of the lowest 9,000 feet of the Mad River Glen atmosphere is rather magnificent looking  and is inidcating the potential for very heavy snow showers Monday evening and night. We are lacking just a tad on the flow. Mad River Glen snow squall fans such as myself prefer a northwest flow off Lake Champlain the prevailing west to northwest flow favors Smuggs and Stowe, but I expect this deep layer of instablity to work some magic anyway. Intermittent heavy snow Monday evening and night will bring 3-6 inches to the mountains, 1-3 inches to valley areas and potentially more than 6 to the mountains north of Waterbury.

The ski day on Tuesday appears drier and chilly with temperatures hovering in the 20's on the mountain. An approaching clipper system will help stabilize the lower troposphere and also help lower wind speeds from what was a blustery Monday. Snow from this aforementioned clipper will arrive Tuesday evening and fall sporadically and not too heavily through Wednesday morning. We are not on the right side of this clipper system and this will keep snow accumulations in the 1-3 inch range Tuesday night and during the ski day on Wednesday. Once we turn the flow northwesterly later Wednesday, heavier snow showers are again likely and should persist into early Thursday. The depth of the instability doesn't appear quite as impressive as Monday night but the flow is better aligned for MRG and snow totals are certainly capable of exceeding an additional 4 inches (on top of what falls Tuesday night and Wednesday). The incoming airmass late on Wednesday is also quite cold for late March and will bring temperatures into the 15-25 degree range for most of Thursday. It will be dry by Friday morning with more sunshine and with temperatures as low as 5 degrees in few spots. 

Where have you been arctic pattern ? It's here for this week with cold air in place for the upcoming weekend as southern stream moisture tries to converge with a polar impulse. Models are still at odds with whether this can successfully manifest into a big snow producing event though I think a light accumulation of snow Friday night or Saturday is likely while a bigger event remains possible. 

Jet stream configuration and trough axis along with the cold air is expected to shift west after this weekend lowering our prospects for the continuation of winter weather though not eliminating the chances for snowfall entirely. More spring-like temperatures or at least spring-like days have become more likely beginning Monday the 25th and I expect at least two of those in the week beginning that day.

A two-dose shot of wet snowfall over the next few days across northern Vermont high country

 It has been an especially warm winter in the Great Lakes region. After recording the warmest February on record, the first 14 days of March in Chicago has been warmer than the same period in the historically warm March of 2012. The state of Vermont has also been very mild during this 6-week period, but has not featured that mid-spring warmth that has persistently impacted locations farther west. It's been pretty close however with excessive temperatures often impacting Burlington and locations in the Champlain Valley while failing to make it passed the Long Trail. All of these regions are poised to have a very different outcome than March of 2012 as a different weather pattern will dominate the eastern two thirds of the country for the back half of the month. A mild day or two appears possible during the last 5 days of the month but both colder weather and snowfall should remain a more prevailing part of the outlook until April with the dominating jet stream feature consisting of a omega-like block near the Yukon/AK border.

There are a few chances for some wet snowfall over the next few days. A wave of low pressure passing to our south will spread an area of rainfall over northern Vermont Thursday night. This rain will turn to snow beginning at higher elevations first, but ultimately everyone in the valley will be seeing snowfall by morning. This appears to be a 2-5 inch wet snowfall for the high country ending by late morning with the near freezing temperatures rising to the high 30's during the afternoon. 

Only a few intervals of blue sky can be expected for the weekend, mostly on Saturday. More elevation sensitive snowfall can be expected for Sunday. This time we are on the wrong and warmer side of the impacting low pressure area and though its cold enough to snow above 2000 feet, precipitation will be fairly disorganized and the moderate, accumulating snow will be intermittent across the mountains or falling as mixed precipitation and/or graupel over valley locations. Another 2-4 inches is my first guess with this 2nd event, though to reiterate, this applies only to the mountains and little accumulation can be expected on the valley floor. 

The same section of high country that is expecting some wet snowfall over the coming few days, can expect a 5 day period of below freezing temperatures beginning on Monday. Instability snow showers will accompany the chill late on Monday through most of Tuesday. By Wednesday there are indications that a more significant clipper type feature capable of bringing more substantial and powdery snow to MRG. The snow could be followed by our coldest weather of the month on the mountain with readings potentially staying below 25 both Thursday and Friday and struggling to bet above freezing over the mountains. The reinforcing area of cold late next week should bring the return of some sunshine for at least a day or two. If the strong southern branch storm stays south of New England for the weekend of March 23 and 24th, sunshine will continue and temperatures will moderate. If the storm comes north, that will be a situation certainly worth discussing.

Colder weather pattern supports additional snowfall for the VT high country with some spring-like days sprinkled in

The duration of March will feature some sprint-like days, especially over low lying valley areas. That said, winter 2023-2024 isn't done and the weather pattern for the foreseeable future favors several opportunities for additional snowfall and a few multi-day periods of colder weather capable of keeping temperatures below the freezing mark across the mountains. 

Temperatures will drop into the 20's Wednesday morning before one such spring-like period begins with readings climbing into the 40's during the afternoon followed by near 50-degree temperatures Thursday near base areas. Clouds will be more prevalent Thursday as low pressure approaches from the southwest. It will pretty mild when precipitation from this feature arrives from this feature, mild enough for rain or mixed precipitation in valley locations. We are on the colder side of this system however and this means some additional wet snowfall for the high country early Friday. I wouldn't expect a lot, 2-5 inches of pretty gloppy snow, but it does replace my wetter expectations from a few days ago.

It appears as if we are in between weather systems for Saturday, another more spring-like day in valley areas with temperatures in the 40's though it should remain a bit closer to freezing over the high country. A widespread area of colder air will then be pushing south into the Great Lakes region by early Sunday, bringing with it, along with the colder air, an area of precipitation that should impact northern Vermont Sunday. Again, temperatures might not be cold enough to support snowfall in valley areas, but they should be over the mountains and this means more accumulating wet snow. By Monday, colder air will support more powdery snowfall, probably in the form of snow showers. 

This is probably the most favorable upstream environment we've had for sustained wintry weather in Vermont with favorable conditions both in the Pacific and in the Alaska/Yukon area. Most of the week beginning Monday the 18th through Friday, March 22n appears wintry and I think there's some storm potential for late in the week. The favorable weather pattern has to overwhelm an obscene warm weather feedback stemming from a warm Great Lakes aggregate thanks to the sustained torch impacting that region through much of last month. Another big storm late in March is thus certainly not a guarantee but the weather patterns certainly supports this possibility both late next week and beyond the 22nd when more colder late March weather appears likely.

Over a foot of mostly powdery additional snow expected over the mountains late Sunday into Monday

Heavy wet snow pummeled much the northern Vermont high country Saturday night and early Sunday and with it came the power outages. The wet snow always brings this risk, but it appears especially bad thanks to the fact that snow fell over largely unfrozen ground, leaving many large trees susceptible to an uprooting. Thirteen thousand customers just in Washington County alone according to power outage US.  Hopefully folks impacted by this get electricity back soon including the ski areas which appear to have been affected Sunday morning. With the surface low pressure center tracking west of Boston and over interior New Hampshire and Maine, much of Vermont experienced the expected lull in the storm early Sunday. A deep layer of northwest flow is poised to establish itself over the entire state Sunday afternoon allowing the wrap-around moist conveyor of the storm to bring snow back to the mountains. Snow should be falling lightly late Sunday afternoon and evening and intensify over the mountains even as it remains more intermittent in valley areas. Most importantly, temperatures above 1500 feet will cool into the 20's changing the consistency of the snow to a drier, more powdery variety. Aside from being nicer to ski in, the drier is also a little easier on power lines. Northwest winds are expected to increase Sunday night into Monday even as the snowfall continues. Expect blustery conditions Monday with 20-40 mph winds, temperatures in the 20's and the additional snowfall which should taper off to flurries Monday afternoon or evening. I expect we receive another 2-4 inches Sunday, 6-12 inches of powdery snow Sunday night and an additional 3-6 during the day Monday. This would bring us to a storm total ranging from 20 to 34 inches.

More sunshine, diminishing winds and milder 35-40 degree temperatures can be expected for Tuesday with readings climbing into the 40's across valley locations. Clouds are expected to return for Wednesday but temperatures are expected to climb well into the 40's 

More weather is expected late in the week as low pressure is expected to emerge in the plains and track eastward and eventually somewhere south of Vermont. Cold air is in short supply but a minimal push of cooler temperatures is expected to push south just ahead of any precipitation which keeps us in play for some wet snowfall. The prospects for snow appear better as we get closer to St Patrick's Day thanks to colder air which as I've mentioned in prior posts, appears to want to stick around for the ensuing week. More on that in the next update.

Biggest storm of the season set to hammer MRG with 21-42 inches Saturday night through Monday

Got a real solid update on our powerful winter storm storm incoming. Just a beautiful elevation event for the northern Green Mountains and it really just comes down to sorting through all the particulars which we will try to do in this update. 

Meanwhile, sunshine finally made an appearance and another round of sub-freezing temperatures Friday night should give us a short break from the mud. We've managed to eradicate the excessive warmth for the time being but temperatures are still running above normal and are more typical of the back half of March than the first half. All that said, even the limited amounts of cold appears to be enough to keep this upcoming event snow above 2,000 feet and mostly snow between 1000 - 2000 feet. Clouds from this approaching weather system should arrive just after sunrise Saturday and continue to thicken throughout the ski day. 

I was really encouraged to see data from higher resolution Euro and NAM indicate very robust strengthening of low pressure near the Jersey coast Saturday night. This feature will quickly become the dominant component of this system, consolidating the storm as it tracks just west of Boston on Sunday. With temperatures rising into the 40's across valley areas Saturday and near 40 across the high country, precipitation is likely to start as a mix or rain depending on elevation Saturday evening. Wet bulb readings suggests a quick turn to snow above 2000 feet and a gradual turn to snow above 1000 feet. Very heavy snowfall is indicated on a few simulations early Sunday morning before a potential lull in the storm during the middle part of the day.

Snow consistency appears pretty wet below 3000 feet during the first part of this event. There is a substantial column of boundary level air indicated to be in the 28-33 degree range on model cross sections through midday Sunday. Keep in mind that heavy wet thump snow can both make travel conditions very treacherous and cause power outages, especially when combined with wind.  Conditions begin to change late Sunday as colder air begins to settle across the high country as the flow becomes northwesterly. This is ultimately what will separate this storm from the pack this year as the setup appears outstanding for a continuation of colder snow across the mountains Sunday evening, night and Monday. The flow looks great and the storm will be slow enough to depart to allow lingering moisture to just hammer the northern Greens with continuous cold snow. Here are my expectations on snow totals period by period. Please keep in mind that this is a very elevation sensitive event and if you're reading from the Champlain Valley, your outcome will be very different and considerably less snowy than the one forecasted for the mountains. 

Saturday Night: Mixed precip changing to snow - thump potential toward dawn. 6-12 inches mostly wet snow 

Sunday Day: Heavy snow early, possible lull midday or afternoon. 3-6 inches mostly wet snow 

Sunday Night: Snow occasionally heavy. 6-12 inches of powder 

Monday: Snow or snow showers. Another 6-12 inches ! 

Total storm accumulations by Monday evening: 21-42 inches 

Snow will be out the door by Tuesday and temperatures will moderate approaching 40 degrees at base areas with the help of some sunshine. Stronger doses of sun on Wednesday will boost readings even further. Clouds are expected to return later in the week and there is a risk of light rain or mixed precipitation before cooler conditions return for St Patrick's Day weekend. 

I still like the idea of a colder regime settling that could begin with some snow on St Patrick's Day. More generally however, it looks like we have a return of more wintry conditions by Monday and that should bring the potential for additional snowfall in some form during the week beginning Monday March 18.

Powerful storm has the potential to bring a foot or more of snow to the northern high country Sunday into Monday

 Cloudy, damp and rainy weather continue plague the MRV and rainy part of this picture is expected to be with us through Wednesday night. The rain is expected to fall heavy enough Wednesday evening to total upwards of an inch though temperatures will stay cold enough to slow the continued melting of snow where it continues to exist across the high country. Boundary layer conditions would support a changeover to snow during the day Thursday if precipitation were to continue. Though models have teased such an outcome sporadically, there's been a pretty clear consensus that it dries out Thursday with the sun even making an appearance later in the day. The decrease in cloudiness will allow the mud to freeze Friday morning before another round of 40-50 degree temperatures and a welcomed full day of sunshine brings the mud right back. 

Sunshine is now expected to return for the first part of Saturday which appears to be an excellent and very typical early spring day in Vermont (much like Friday appears to be) with lots of 20's in the morning and 40's in the afternoon. Clouds from our incoming storm system arrive for the back half of the day but winds should stay tame and precipitation won't arrive until sometime Saturday evening or at night. 

The update on our late weekend storm goes as follows. Snowfall prospects really hinge on the familiar question of how quickly and efficiently this storm can transfer its energy to the coastline early on Sunday. The low pressure center in question is a formidable one but is tracking right at us with minimal amounts of antecedent cold air support. If we can make an ideal coastal transaction we will be snowing quite heavily across the high country early on Sunday and the snow would continue throughout the day, through Sunday night with snow showers continuing into Monday. Accumulations could total our best of the season by Monday evening and yes that means upwards of 2 feet. I continue to feel as if this is a very viable scenario. That said, models moved somewhat away from the "ideal" coastal transfer and it would allow for a longer period of wet weather Saturday night and early Sunday. This is a dynamic enough storm however to produce for us even with a less than ideal scenario. Midday models on Wednesday are struggling to produce a well defined coastal low near Cape Cod midday Sunday, but a coastal low ultimately does form, strengthen and slow in speed. Not only would a change to snow occur across the high country, snow consistency would become ideal with temperatures dropping into the 20's Sunday night into early Monday. Right now, I would put my snowfall spectrum in the 10-30 inch category. 

The long range also continues to show promise. The outlook for the early part of next week consists of the snow showers I spoke of Monday, mostly sub-freezing weather Tuesday and a more gradual moderation in temperatures for the end of the week. It still appears more spring-like Wednesday to Friday, but more recent simulations have kept temperatures a little closer to climatology. 

Teleconnections also continue to favor a turn toward colder weather after St Patrick's Day thanks to the combined influence of a more favorable Pacific and a jet stream in western North America that will push polar air in our direction. Snowfall during the March 18-22 period appears likely in some form.

Mild and damp for a few more days and then winter reemerges from the dead with snow potential Sunday/Monday and colder weather in the long range

 If you're holding out hope of extending the ski season and even procuring ourselves one more really good storm, I offer some good news today. It continues to be very mild in the Mad River Valley and snow continues to melt, but we are most of the way through this very warm regime and are on the verge of heading back into a more typical March temperature range late this week and perhaps a colder than normal weather picture in the week beginning March 18th. There's snow to talk about as well. I am not especially bullish on snowfall Thursday but there is an excellent chance for some significant snow in the mountains late this weekend and into Monday, March 11. At the very least, it appears we've found a footing and won't go quietly into the night like 2016 and especially 2012. 

I really don't want to spend inordinate amounts of time talking about rain and mild weather so I'll try to be fast with the short term outlook. We've got a wave of low pressure pushing moisture into New England on Tuesday. The clouds will keep temperatures into the 40's and most of the rain will fall south and east of northern Vermont, yet rain is expected during the ski day and for a few hours during the evening.  Models are not showing rain for the Wednesday ski day and are instead insisting that clouds linger through another very mild early March day. A push of cooler weather is expected to arrive to accompany some steadier rainfall Wednesday evening into early Thursday. We are just a few degrees away from snow event with this batch of precipitation and if we are to somehow keep it going through the middle of the day, some wet snow could fall across the high country. Like I mentioned in the above paragraph however, I would not hold your breath.  

Generally mild conditions are expected to continue into Friday before we finally get ourselves a sub-freezing night just ahead of the weekend. At that point, we will be watching a storm system in the Ohio Valley crank up and head in our direction. Our cold air will continue to be in short supply as precipitation arrives sometime Saturday night, so some initial wet weather is certainly possible. By early Sunday however, we've got some hard evidence that this storm will make a very nice transition to the New England coastline while cold air is entrained into back flank of this deepening coastal cyclone. This is not an uncommon New England weather map though I can't remember seeing anything closely resembling it since November which is ridiculous. Models continue to provide us with varying solutions on how the final details play out on Sunday, but I like the idea of mixed precipitation changing to snow and some decent accumulations late in the day Sunday and into the Sunday night and Monday. I certainly hope we can score a foot or more out of this and its possible, though for now I think a 6-plus inch event is the most probable. Hopefully I can upgrade our prognosis in a few days. 

A changeable March scenario appears on tap between March 11-15 consisting of some cooler weather at the start of the week and some milder at the end of the week. The risk of more heavy rain appears minimal even as it warms up late next week but i wouldn't rule out some before it begins to get colder for St Patrick's Day weekend. Meanwhile conditions in the Pacific will be changing dramatically and this sets us up for a very favorable late March jet stream beginning around St Patrick's Day and extending through the following week. Both cold weather and snowfall are favored with the EPO cratering and providing support for a nice looking jet stream ridge in western North America.

Very mild weather returns early next week and growing indications of a significant storm around Sunday, March 11

Most of the prevailing uncertainties with the short term outlook in the last update have gotten sorted out as of Friday. The best chance to see some sunshine this weekend will be the sunrise on Saturday. After that, clouds overtake us and ultimately the rain will overtake us. There's a 1-2 hour window right around noon on Saturday for snow or a snow/sleet conglomeration. If we get lucky and precipitation falls hard enough in that time frame, we will see a small accumulation during the ski day. By then end of the ski day however, precipitation will be falling as a cold rain with a few isolated pockets of freezing rain. A third to a half inch of mostly rain is expected from all this, most of it falling Saturday evening and none of it falling during the day Sunday, though clouds are expected to linger most of that day with temperatures gradually rising into the middle 40'. 

The next uncertainty relates to early next week,specifically the Monday to Wednesday time frame. This is just another victory for the mild air. The low level push of cold the Euro was teasing us with a few days ago has vanished and it looks like a torch. According to the American model, low clouds burn away Monday and Tuesday and temperatures will be in the 50's on much of the mountain and near 60 in valley areas. The Euro has been resistant in the elimination of these clouds and in fact has some rainfall reentering the weather picture on Tuesday. This would keep temperatures down slightly but it will be mild regardless and corn horns will be sounding at all elevations of the Vermont ski country. 

We start moving into more model disagreement with the Wednesday outlook. I am of the opinion we see drier and cooler weather this day with temperatures generally holding in the 40's along with a few breaks of sunshine. The period Thursday through the 2nd full weekend of March looks very cloudy with several areas of precipitation potentially impacting Vermont. Could the low level push of cold air Wednesday be strong enough to set up a period of snowfall for Thursday or Friday (March 7th/8th) ? It's not impossible according to some data. For the 2nd full weekend of March, there are stronger indications that a more significant storm system takes shape. There's not a lot of cold air support with arctic air bottled up well to our north, but sometimes a strong low pressure area in March is enough to make the magic happen, at least with some help from elevation. In the wake of this feature will come a few days of cooler weather (March 12th-15th) though I still don't see an extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures

Intense shot of arctic chill in the short term might be the last bitterly cold air we see this season even if snowfall returns for middle of March

 If you, as a casual weather enthusiast, appreciate the flare for the dramatic that Vermont possesses then please enjoy the transition to abruptly colder weather Wednesday evening. The mild, showery weather on Wednesday might even include a few rumbles of thunder. The cold front will pass in dramatic fashion, dropping temperatures over 10-degrees in a matter of minutes around 7 or 8 pm and 40 degrees in a span of 12 hours. Snow is also expected Wednesday evening over the mountains. I continue to think 2-4 inches for the high country that will get very wind blown by the start of the ski day when temperatures are in the single numbers. Some sunshine will try and squeeze its way through the very light wind blown snow showers on Thursday but I would continue to describe the day as very blustery and chilly with temperatures hovering in the low teens. It's quite a transition but my big picture concern is that this is the last legitimate intrusion of arctic air for several weeks and that snowfall will be confined to the wetter elevation sensitive type events in the middle or later part of March. 

Friday's temperatures will recover nicely from single digit readings in the morning to 30-plus readings in the afternoons. Winds won't diminish entirely but will decrease somewhat combined with a healthy dose of sunshine. As temperatures continue to modify over the weekend, it was my hope that we could keep sunshine in place. We have a chance to do that early on Saturday though this jet stream ridge appears dirtier allowing clouds to quickly advance up the coast and ultimately blanking most of New England for at least the later part of Saturday and into Sunday. Temperatures on both weekend days appear likely to eclipse 40 on the mountain but disagreement has emerged for Sunday and into the early part of next week on the extent of mild weather covering northern New England. The Euro has begun to show a low level push cooler temperatures from Quebec confining temperatures to the 30's and 40's during the days while there continue to be other indications of 1-3 days of 50-plus temperatures next week. I am inclined to believe that the cooler outcome has some validity, but there continues to be high risk for another rain event of some sort on Wednesday or Thursday of next week. It also might not be the last wet weather we see in this mild early March regime as ensembles suggest more wet weather for the 2nd full weekend of the month. One theme I would like to hammer home though is the return of clouds which will dominate the outlook beginning this weekend and persisting for better part of the week that follows. 

The return of a more favorable NAO, a neutralized AO and a gradually less angry Pacific support some semblance of normalcy to the Vermont weather picture for the middle of March. Like I mentioned though, arctic cold looks extremely bottled up over our continent, concentrating its focus on Alaska and the Yukon mostly. Snowfall is still possible but I would favor it over the higher elevations and when snow does fall, there will be concerns over snow consistency. A first such opportunity for an elevation style snow event appear to be around March 11th or 12th or about 12 or so days away. It will follow a lot of above freezing temperatures even with a cooler outlook next week.

Beautiful spring Tuesday, rain, wind and excessive warmth for Wednesday and sharply colder weather for Thursday

 If you continue to hope for a return of some winter after March 10th, I have a few breadcrumbs for you. Until then however, we have an ugly debauchery of a winter weather pattern consisting of a well defined jet stream structure favoring both cold and snow in the west and very mild weather in the northeast. This is terrific if you have plans to ski out west over the next few weeks but eastern ski enthusiasts can expect a situation more typical of late March or April. Over the last 15 or so years, the two worst March weather months were 2012 and 2016. Both of these months put salt in the wounds of bad snow seasons. 2012 consisted of a mammoth jet stream ridge over the middle part of the continent which caused the growing season to begin a month early of a wide swath of the country while 2016 was less warm, occurred after the last super nino winter and ensured that the worst snow season I can ever remember in Vermont, stayed that way. Long range indications suggest we might deviate from those outcomes, but that's about as optimistic as I can be. 

The snow forecast for the next 7 days isn't quite zero and I'll get to that in a minute. First, I should alert folks to what will be an outstanding ski day Tuesday consisting of no new snow, but sunshine and near 50 degree temperatures. A few days ago, I wasn't sure if we could "mix out" Tuesday which is a term the meteorology community likes to use sometimes to describe a low level environment where mid level temperatures are fully mixed to the surface. These are typically low pollution days and if the mid-level environment is warm, so will surface temps, sometimes extremely so. Tuesday is such a case and readings should warm well into the 40's and even 50's at base areas, bringing with it the corn horn. I should highlight Tuesday because I can't guarantee that snow cover will return to where it will be tomorrow once this warm weather pattern plays out in the next 10 days. Wednesday is the ugly days with surging dewpoints, gusty south winds and rain which will begin Tuesday night and continue, in sporadic fashion through the ski day Wednesday. We aren't expecting a lot of rain though we are expecting the trifecta of ingredients for snow melt and we should see quite a bit of that by evening with exposed areas in the valley losing about everything. The snowfall, I mentioned above, comes Wednesday night with sharply colder temperatures. Mountains can expect 2-4 windblown inches and there should be some talk about flash freezes with temperatures indicated to drop almost 40 degrees in a span of a few hours. This airmass will come and go, but it is ferocious and will bring temperatures back to the single numbers by early Thursday on the mountain accompanied by gusty west winds. March will thus come in like a lion with near 10 degree temperatures to start Friday before readings  quickly warm to near 40 thanks to full sunshine and winds shifting to a more more mild southerly direction.

Upwards of 3 50-degree days are possible in the period beginning Saturday, March 2nd and ending Wednesday, March 6th. This forecast applies to higher elevation areas of course and base areas could certainly see temperatures hit 60 multiple times over this time frame. The extent of warm weather during the day will likely depend on the amount of sunshine we receive. Rainfall is expected to stay away for the upcoming weekend but will become a risk again by the middle of next week. 

The AO is expected to neutralize as by as early as March 5th and the longer range outlook shows a more blocked downstream environment. The coldest weather in North America is still favored over Alaska and the western part of the North American continent for the middle part of March though there is more evidence that New England will see less milder weather after March 8th. A conflicting set of fundamental indicators isn't enough to produce a miracle March recovery, its simply too late in the season for that. The outlook does look stormier however and perhaps we can neutralize the Pacific a bit further after March 10th and make some magic.

Winter will shift its focus westward as mild pattern prepared to dominate New England through the first 10 days of March

It's admittedly more challenging to forge ahead with blogging efforts with a not so promising weather pattern staring us down in the face. Unless we get saved by the middle or later part of March, this season, which started with so much promise in November, is set to mostly fall apart on us. We certainly didn't get any help from our recent storm Thursday night, which under-performed and wasn't expected to do that much to begin with. Some incoming arctic air for the weekend will retreat northward just as quickly as it arrived and will not be accompanied by the typical round of accumulating snow showers. And then we have a torch for the middle part of next week which has some ugly characteristics I could do without (at least until later in the spring). 

Even as this warm pattern gets better established over eastern North America, cold arctic air will actually be building and expanding across western North America centered over Alaska and the Yukon. These regions are setup for a bitterly cold finish to February and first half of March. Further south, ski country across the west appears promising in early March as well with storminess in the Pacific bringing moisture to both the central and southern Rocky Mountain regions as well as the Sierra Nevada. None of this bodes well for ski areas in the east however. Vermont is set up to have a chilly Saturday with temperatures on the mountain hovering in the low teens accompanied by gusty winds. Winds will shift on Sunday out of milder southwesterly direction and help modify temperatures to near 30 degrees. The later part of Saturday appears to feature some Sunshine and this is expected to carry through Sunday when conditions become more comfortable. 

The fierce mild intrusion next week appears short-lived, but very damaging. I'll get to that in a bit. New snow, if we get it over the next week appears most likely Sunday night from a disturbance receding into Quebec. I am not optimistic on this feature delivering, but it will manage to delay the big influx of warmth by a day.  Following a mostly cloudy and near 40-degree early spring-like day on Tuesday, stronger southerly winds will push temperatures toward 50 by Wednesday morning and near 60 in some valley areas as the day progresses. Dewpoints will climb well into the 40's and a period of rain appears to be a virtual certainty at some points. This combination of weather conditions will be damaging to snow conditions even though colder weather is expected to arrive Thursday evening. The rain doesn't appear especially heavy as of now or pose a flood risk and I can keep the door open that precipitation will change to a period of snow Wednesday night, but support for this is tepid right now. 

The return of colder weather on our leap year day of February 29th represents a very small piece of the intense chill that will be mostly bottled up in western North America for the first 10 days of March. Once again, the cold weather, though intense for a day on Thursday will quickly recede and give way to more early spring-like conditions for the first full weekend in March. This is a broad well-defined pattern which will favor mild weather across New England and much of eastern Canada while cold weather is very focused on western Canada and Alaska. Every single teleconneciton indicator is expected to turn strongly unfavorable over the next week which will help bring this pattern on. By March 10th however, the teleconnection indices neutralize and in the case of NAO/AO are indicated to turn slightly favorable. I have yet to see evidence that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event will have a material impact on how the polar vortex might impact North America. There is harder evidence however of less mild weather after the 10th and an increased potential for storminess.

Elevation sensitive snowfall Thursday night into early Friday and a mostly wintry weekend even though warm pattern looms

Across the entirety of the United States, February seems destined to finish as the warmest on record, powered largely by unprecedented warmth in the middle of the United States, especially the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. Hard to find silver linings in a month like this yet there are some, including increased amounts of sunshine and the lack of rainfall. Vermont has also not been at the center of the warmth and will probably avoid having the distinction of recording the warmest month ever. The statistical semantics aside, February of 2018 stands out  as my least favorite in a winter where we saw a lot a lot of early season snow and cold melt away, only to be replaced eventually by one of the most epic March's ever. We need another such March to bring this winter if we are to move this winter out of the "dud" category. 

One thing we have had is some wintry weekends and we get another one to finish off the month of February. We won't get a big storm to materialize this Friday, as expected, but clouds will replace the recent stretch of sunshine on Thursday and an extended period of light snow is expected Thursday night into Friday morning. Valley areas can expect the snow to be of a damp consistency and this is likely to extend to the base of MRG. Slightly colder temperatures are expected closer to the summit areas where the snow will be drier and should continue to fall through noon Friday. I expect 3-7 inches out of this 12 or so hour snowfall event with the range accounting for the elevation sensitivity of the event and the lingering uncertainty as to how much moisture can get pushed into northern New England more generally. I don't expect wind speed to be an issue on most of the mountain Friday, but the directionally speaking, prevailing southeast is typically the one of concern for the single chair. Winds will become northwesterly late Friday evening into Saturday and remain pretty strong bringing a brief period of very intense chill to northern Vermont. I would expect temperatures to remain below 10 on Saturday on most of the mountain with winds chills well below zero. One might additional snow from snow showers late Friday into early Saturday, but this cold appears undercutting in nature providing a stable boundary layer and putting a hard lid on convection. Though we are in the midst of a warm pattern to finish the month of February, Saturday will be one of the coldest skiable days of the season so prepare yourself accordingly. Weather conditions will be very different Sunday following a chilly near zero start to the day. Southwesterly winds will boost temperatures up to near 30 and indications are that we will receive some decent sunshine.

I can't speak much for next week if you like wintry weather. Were I to talk about weather in Alaska, I could write about both blizzards and extreme cold. The recent run of big -PDO winters have brought some decent chill to the 49th state and when they get cold often times we are not. Monday will see temperatures creep above the freezing mark but my concern is for Wednesday, Thursday or both when there is a risk of excessive temperatures and rainfall. 

In the longer range, there's been some talk about a Sudden Stratospheric Warming disrupting what appears right now to be a mild outlook for the month of March. The SSW occurring now has been linked to disruptions in the polar vortex in the troposphere capable of bringing large scale outbreaks of arctic air southward to mid latitude climates. The cutting edge research relating to this phenomenon has been very intriguing, but SSW events have not been reliably predictive because results have varied for each event. Basing the outlook exclusively on ensemble guidance continues to reveal a mild outlook for the first 10 or so days of March. This pattern is likely to breakdown regardless of the impacts of SSW after that, though its difficult to say if we will experience a full reemergence of winter and another big March 13-15th storm that has become tradition in recent winters.

Bluebird weather through Wednesday and less potential for late this week

 The snow drought was broken the past several day with over a foot of new snow falling over a 3-4 day period. Even Sunday the clipper system on Sunday night, which passed deep into Quebec manage to deposit a few inches of snow for Monday as a cool, dry high pressure center builds across the region. We've got three bluebird days lined up for the start of the upcoming week and though we are still running a bit behind for the month in the snowfall department, at least the sun has returned for this month. Monday and Tuesday will feature light winds with chilly sub-10 degree morning temperatures warming to the 20's each afternoon. Wednesday will start out in the single numbers as well before stronger southerly winds boost temperatures into the 30's. Snow conditions should stay dry even on Wednesday thanks to lower dewpoints, at least on most of the mountain. 

We've been keeping our eye on the potential snow for late week for a good while now. Unfortunately the trends haven't been optimal with the hypothetical storm exhibiting some "failure to launch" issues. This is something the Euro model and ensemble have been showing for a few days, basically pushing a disorganized area of southern stream moisture eastward out over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean while an incoming push of polar energy manages to squash the whole thing before any storm materializes. Other model simulations have been indicating a more promising outcome and have continued to do so as of early Monday though they also have moved in the wrong direction.  I am hopeful the polar jet impulse can at least provide a burst of snow late Friday or Friday night ahead of the last weekend of February but I would certainly like to convey in this update that our chances for big snow in this time frame have taken a hit. We can expect clouds to increase Thursday with milder temperatures followed by some wet snow early Friday and then a cold and blustery Saturday with temperatures falling back into the teens and 20's. Another clipper system will bring clouds and some light snow back to the region Sunday night, but both ski days this weekend appear generally free of accumulating snow. 

Longer range ensembles have moved toward a slightly less bad outcome for late February and early March with the American GFS /Canadian model and its accompanying ensembles indicating much more in the way of storminess as opposed to warmth. The Euro ensemble continues to pound away at the mild outlook for early March. All of the varying solutions indicate a big modification in temperatures early next week and a few spring like days somewhere around our leap year day of February 29th. By the first full weekend in March, there are some indications that potential storminess could get slightly interesting and teleconnections indices which will certainly turn universally unfavorable for the last few days of February, clearly neutralize by March 2nd or 3rd.

Excellent short term outlook with snow falling through Saturday and not such a great longer term outlook with the eventual breadown of cold weather support late in the month !

Wintry conditions have returned to northern Vermont and will be enhanced by a decent snow event Thursday night into Friday. I am not a fan of how the weather pattern appears to be evolving late this month and into early March and I will share all those details in a bit, but for the next 10 days, we should have some excitement and mostly sub-freezing temperatures. 

Snow Thursday evening is mostly light, very fluffy and capable of accumulating a few inches before dawn on Friday. As winds become more northwesterly during the ski day, the snow shower situation appears fantastic, perhaps the best of the season from a low level instability standpoint. The corridor from Sugarbush northward to Smuggs appears positioned to benefit the most from the northwest winds with snow fairly continuous throughout the ski day at varying intensity along with blustery winds. Wind speeds, won't be as intense as Wednesday though still strong enough to bring wind chill temperatures below zero at times with actual temperatures holding around 20. I expect 2-4 inches of snow prior to the ski day Friday and another 4-8 during and after the ski day Friday. Both the low level instability and prevailing flow appear supportive for additional snow showers on Saturday as well. Southern stream moisture will not impact northern New England or any part of Vermont and a miner snow event in Pennsylvania and New Jersey will act as a slight force to suppress snow showers to the north. Still, the instability is strong enough for an additional 2-4 inch accumulation Friday night into Saturday and its all powder with temperatures Saturday holding in the teens. Not bad ! 

The snow showers will finally abate Sunday and temperatures will warm from the single numbers to near 30.  A second clipper system is poised to bring clouds back to Vermont later Sunday with accumulating snow most likely from Stowe northward Sunday night. Mad River Glen appears to be in the 1-2 inch category with this feature, which is passing a bit too far to our north for a significant impact to occur. This clipper system on Sunday night is going to bring some of the coldest air of the season to a large portion of Quebec, though the core of this cold air is indicated to remain mostly in Canada rather than plunge southward into New England. It's been the story of this El Nino winter, a season where the cold air seems to be on the losing end of every battle from the Great Lakes eastward and unless you reside in Alasaka, mild air has generally prevailed everywhere else in the continent as well. The rapid breakdown of this blocking pattern next week downstream over Greenland underscores this description most of all. Less than a week ago, this blocking was expected to be a fundamental support mechanism for a more sustained stretch of colder/wintry weather for the east coast and expectations have now evolved to a point where the cold predicted to position itself over Quebec early next week, quickly moves east over southern Greenland late in the week, erasing any of the blocking once predicted to be positioned there. Thankfully, the wintry outlook has tenuously held on for northern Vermont. Temperatures are expected to remain well below the freezing mark through early Wednesday and some warm advection / overunning snowfall (light) is possible Wednesday or Thursday. 

Ensembles indicate an interesting situation for late next week/ last weekeend in February with an amplifying jet stream in eastern North America and strengthening low pressure coming out of the Ohio Valley. All three ensembles indicate a strong signal for a storm system with much of the cold air support in the rear of the storm powered by the digging jet stream. Temperatures appear mild at the start of this event but certainly supportive for snowfall both Friday evening and Saturday. Windy and very chilly conditions appear likely for at least part of the weekend in question with cold weather prevailing through Monday February 26th. 

Beyond Monday February 26th, the weather pattern appears to entirely break down in terms of being supportive of cold wintry weather. The Pacific appears angry driving both the EPO and PNA into unfavorable territory with the AO/NAO remaining mildly unsupportive. Its not a good recipe for natural snowfall so late in the season anywhere in New England. Yes, this could put the best part of the season to bed, but I was encouraged with the continued weakening of El Nino combined with the neutralizing PDO. Both these features have made life tough for lovers of cold arctic air in North America and a weaker version of both provide some tertiary encouragement for winter to return sometime during the 2nd two-thirds of March.

The 5-day snowfall outlook looks good even though our recent whiff was painful

We whiffed on Tuesday's east coast snow event and I have some concerns about how the weather pattern might evolve very late in February into early March. This constitutes the "bad news" section of the outlook and although I spend sometime expanding on those late month concerns, much of the next two weeks and especially the next 5 days looks promising. 

With the big east coast storm quickly exiting stage right and arctic cold building across the region on northwest flow, the door will get flung open for a round of snow showers. The early morning hours on Wednesday will feature most of the accumulating snow, but lighter snow showers will linger into the ski day and the high country is set up to break its snow drought and receive 2-5 inches while accumulations will be less than 2 in valley areas. The snow early on Wednesday is the first of 3 opportunities for new snow over the next 5 days, all of it falling  in a cold powdery consistency. The 2nd of these opportunities comes from a hybrid type clipper system Thursday evening into early Friday. I'll call it a clipper because some of the energy stems from the amplifying polar jet though some pacific moisture will attach itself to this and will help create a productive snow event for us. The synoptic snow will fall Thursday evening and amount to a few inches while snow showers appear likely through much of the day Friday. 6-12 inches would be my first guess at accumulations for MRG over the 24-hour period beginning Thursday evening. Daytime temperatures should remain in the teens and twenties Wednesday through Friday with single digit readings early Thursday. Those looking for sun, have the opportunity to see some early Thursday before clouds increase and thicken throughout the day. 

Storm or I should say, snow opportunity number 3 comes Saturday and appears most uncertain. I spoke about the lurking southern branch energy/moisture that may or not get totally involved in the east coast weather situation this weekend. If it does, as the GFS model suggests, we could be looking at snow from a legit storm. Assuming it doesn't, another clipper system is likely to bring some additional accumulating snowfall followed by one of the colder ski days of the season Sunday with temperatures potentially hovering in the teens. 

Models have backed off on the idea of a widespread outbreak of arctic cold for the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic areas next week though interior New England is indicated to remain wintry with frigid temperatures either lurking close by in eastern Canada or making an intrusion into Vermont sometime around February 22. The middle part of the week remains the period that has the best next opportunity for snowfall though models are not showing any big storm potential as of early Tuesday. Though the intensity of the cold remains a little uncertain later in the week, I would expect are sub-freezing stretch to continue through the week and the last weekend of February (24th & 25th).Those looking for new snow are likely going to see some although specifics continue to look cluttered and changing every day given the presence of the polar jet. 

The cold weather is indicated to soften after February 25th. The AO is expected to neutralize by then, but my bigger concern is the Pacific which is looking angrier and is likely to focus more cold and snowfall on the west. That doesn't necessarily point toward a dire situation for northern New England and a big snowfall is not out of the question in the final days of February or early March. Temperatures however, should get milder thanks both to a shifting jet stream and the longer late February and early March days. 

 

Only light snow out of Tuesday's winter storm but both cold and snowfall dominate the outlook for the next two weeks

 We've seen some expected northward shifting with Tuesday's winter storm, now projected to move offshore in southern New Jersey rather than the Virginia Tidewater. This places Mad River Glen at the northern edge of accumulating snow Tuesday and puts southern Vermont in some of the heaviest snow with ski areas there now expected to get around a foot. This is one of the stronger storms of the season and certainly capable of delivering over two feet over a broad swath of New England with the low pressure area expected to deepen to near 980 mb south of Cape Cod. The storm's movement is mostly east in this instance and is moving quickly allowing most of the heavy snow to end before the end of the day Tuesday. Light snow should begin before dawn Tuesday, persist for several hours during the ski day and end by early afternoon with 1-4 inches expected. More northward shifting is certainly possible and would bring us into heavier snowfall. For now, the sweetspot begins in southern Vermont and extends southward through the Berkshires and northwest Connecticut and westward into the Catskills. 

The storm on Tuesday, even if it only grazes us, marks the shift into the colder weather pattern we've been anxiously waiting for and begins an extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. If we get lucky, the high country might avoid any above-freezing temperatures until March though that can be a lot to ask during the higher sun angle days of later February. Temperatures will be in the 20's on Tuesday while the light snow is falling and this will be accompanied by gusty north to northeast winds. Wednesday will also be a little blustery with intervals of sunshine to go along with occasional snow showers. With the storm on Tuesday departing so quickly, Wednesday's snow showers don't appear to be a nothing burger, especially in the morning and is likely to yield a small accumulation. Winds are expected to diminish Thursday and at least half the day should be bluebird material with temperatures starting in the single numbers and rising to 20. 

There will be several chances for snow in the coming two weeks. The first comes Thursday evening from a clipper system poised to bring cold air reinforcements for the weekend. Snow from this more benign system could begin as early as Thursday evening and should bring at least a few inches for the ski day Friday. Though snow from the clipper system is only likely to bring a light accumulation of 1-3 inches, additional snow showers on Friday should bring more. Being that it remains 4-5 days out, we can expect some changes as the nuts and bolts of this setup become clearer. 

With our collection of teleconnection indices (AO, NAO, PNA and EPO) favoring cold weather for the next 10 days, with some favoring cold through the duration of the month, there will be plenty of opportunities for snow and it will at times be a bit difficult to identify beyond a few days out. The upcoming week is a good case in point with snow now appearing more likely now on Wednesday and Friday even if we do miss the bulk of Tuesday's winter storm. El Nino is weakening, but remains prevalent and is expected to send a bunch of southern stream energy toward the east coast for the weekend of February 17th and 18th.  With the polar jet reemerging as a force in this equation, models will have a difficult time accurately sorting through the many interactions. Next weekend is one example and a storm is certainly capable of getting churned up in this time frame. Another potential big east coast storm is then possible sometime around February 20th or 21st and this could help usher in some of the coldest weather of the season for northern New England in its wake. Speaking locally, our biggest obstacle is that the aforementioned teleconnection indicators are TOO aligned and might suppress some of the heaviest snowfall. With Lake Champlain almost entirely unfrozen, opportunities will continue to show up even if we miss on the big storm potential.

Need some northward shifting to turn Tuesday's system into a big snowfall for northern Vermont

We've had Colorado-type weather over the northern Vermont high country with chilly nights, warm afternoons, to go along with low wind and low dewpoints. The visibility and blue sky have been spectacular, but weather patterns are fluid, especially in New England and we are about to experience some changes. The clouds on Friday shouldn't limit visibility too much and the higher south southwest winds are expected to remain just above the surface which will help keep temperatures closer to 40 degrees during the afternoon instead of soaring to 50 and beyond. Winds are expected to pick up a little on Saturday which will help boost temperatures into the 40's, but models aren't suggesting a big mix down of record breaking warmth or an intense version of snow eating winds; instead, a cloudy mild day is followed by a short-lived burst of rain amounting to less than a tenth of an inch. By Sunday morning, any rain will become light snow as temperatures fall back toward the freezing mark and hold there through much of the day. 

We will be understandably hungry for some new snow following Saturday's warmth which makes the weather system on Tuesday of vital importance. I promised we would have more clarity on this storm by now and I will try and provide as much as I can.  Low pressure will move quickly out of east Texas on Sunday and continue to intensify as it approaches the Virginia tidewater area Monday evening. We remain very much in play for this storm but we need northward shifting if we are to receive any material snowfall. The Euro ensembles which had been reliably consistent, showing some impact for most of the state have shifted southward and are now contributing to a model consensus that would suggest a minimal impact for the MRV. We've seen this movie many times and I don't see mechanism present to slam the door on a northward shift, yet I also want to convey what the model data is illustrating now - a 1-4 inch event during the day Tuesday. Once this strengthening storm exits, a colder temperature regime will better establish itself and it certainly appears as if Tuesday could be the start of a very extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. More on that in a paragraph below. For the rest of next week, there's a chance some moisture could wrap in from the north underneath all the downstream blocking and enhance as it it encounters the mountains. Worth keeping an eye on that and a potential clipper system ushering in a reinforcing and stronger version of colder air for the weekend of the 17th and 18th. The southern branch remains of the jet is also indicated to remain active and could always get involved, but the prevailing storm track, for the time being does appear south of us between Valentine's Day and Sunday February 18th. 

Forecasters have backed away from the extreme cold scenarios that were indicated for the back half of February. Ensembles never really conclusively showed such an outcome, but that didn't stop the hype. That said, the weather pattern continues to look wintry and supportive of more snowfall at least through Sunday February 26th and perhaps beyond. The coldest period occurs around the President's Day holiday weekend and I do expect at least a minimal amount of snowfall in this time frame. After that it will just be a question of if and win we can get one of these big southern streaming systems to evolve into a big east coast snow producer. The odds are pretty good one will given the availability of some cold air and the downstream blocking support being provided by the -NAO.

Fun times ahead after a mild upcoming weekend

 Mad River Glen is enjoying the best stretch of blue sky in months, though we could certainly use a bit of natural snow and instead we are about to get hit with some milder weather. Fortunately the incoming thaw looks ordinary and short-lived. We have a few early March-like afternoons coming our way with temperatures climbing just above the freezing mark at the base Wednesday, Thursday and Friday while below normal temperatures continue to prevail during the overnights. Some sunshine will mix with intervals of cloudiness Wednesday and Thursday and then clouds appear more prevalent for Friday. Saturday is our mild day with temperatures climbing up into the 40's at lower elevations and near 40 in summit areas. The rainfall appears very minimal Saturday evening and is likely to total around a quarter inch if that, and some of that precipitation will mix with or even turn to a period of snow above 3,000 feet. 

I've been watching closely with how models continue to handle a potential storm early next week and my head already hurts. Models have just been all over the place over the past 48 hours. A Euro run on Monday showed a rain producing inland runner and subsequent models today have shifted the storm well south of us and suggesting Vermont will see a minimal impact. The most recent American model did not show a particularly optimal jet configuration because the storm is not given the chance to intensify near the coast before getting ejected out over the open water. The operational Euro Tuesday afternoon wasn't exactly stellar either, but the the Euro Ensemble continue to indicate the possibility for a decent period of snow late Monday Feb 12th into Feb 13th while the Canadian Ensembles hint at this to a lesser extent. Over the next 24 hour, I think we will have much more clarity on whether this potential completely fizzles or not. 

An excellent combination of teleconnection indices will drive the weather pattern beginning around Valentines Day and continuing for most of the back half of February. Any lover of winter weather needs to develop an affinity for a negative Arctic Oscillation, a key driving force for ensuring an optimal storm track and an available supply of colder air. We have that and it's expected to remain with us through at least later February, at times reaching -2 which is pretty impressive. The -AO will be joined by ridging at high latitudes both in western North America and over the Davis Strait. This combination will very much reduce the risk for any rainfall or any prolonged thawing during the back half of February; in fact, all three of these features might work to keep some potential storm action south of Vermont, a problem we haven't really dealt with since the Super Nino winter of 2016 and many of the 5 winters prior to that. A big force that could counteract the suppression of storminess is the ferocious looking southern stream. The current El Nino, though already peaked, is still expected to feature a robust looking southern branch of the jet stream which will, in my opinion, limit the intensity of any arctic cold and provide many areas with  snow potential a few times. It should be a fun ride after we get through the bout of milder air Saturday !

Mild 3-day period Thursday to Saturday before stars align for an outstanding 2nd half of February

Hope everyone enjoyed their bluebird Sunday whatever you all decided to do. We've got a few more of these days lined up this upcoming week. Monday features very little cloud cover though it will be chilly thanks to a stiff northerly winds that appears likely to gust well past 20 mph on the mountain. The wind will bring wind chill temperatures below zero at times on Monday though actual temperatures should rise into the 20's. Temperatures are expected to moderate Tuesday and into Wednesday with winds gradually lessening. Higher resolution models bring some low clouds into valley areas on Tuesday and more so on Wednesday but the midday and afternoon periods feature sunshine. 

A milder period of weather remains in the cards beginning late this week and lasting through the weekend of February 10th and 11th. There's some good news in that the Thursday mild weather appears to be powered more by sun and certainly not by wind or rain. Temperatures on Thursday will warm up past 40 though the bright blue sky will have the effect of making it feel warmer. Friday and Saturday appear cloudier and the best we can probably do in this above-freezing 35-45 degree period is to limit both the wind and the rain which as of now appears to be the most likely outcome. Snowpack in the MRV is often most damaged by strong southwesterly winds and it appears we can keep those away from surface areas even as some light rain is falling later Saturday. Colder weather and snow showers is expected to return for Sunday and this begins a much more productive stretch of weather for northern Vermont ski country I believe ! 

Even as the clouds and mild temperatures win the early part of the upcoming next weekend, key teleconection indices will continue to align themselves for a very favorable 2nd half of February. The two specific items we can point our binoculars  at right now would be the next chance for some snowfall from a potential storm on February 12th or 13th (A Monday and Tuesday) and then an eventual return of some below normal temperatures by the Friday February 16th into the weekend of the 17th and 18th. Everything else appears too blurry in a specific sense, but in a general sense it appears to be an outstanding period of storminess loaded with potential. There's been talk on social media circles of extreme cold and though I think that's possible over a short span of time, the pattern, in this decaying but still strong El Nino environment appears better from the standpoint of snowfall. I expect we should have plenty to discuss relating to snow and the potential for more snow beginning with aforementioned system projected to arrive February 12th and lasting through most of the rest of the month.

Some sun Saturday, a lot more Sunday and a nice stretch of wintry temps for early next week ahead of a mini thaw

Okay, so it's Friday afternoon and I see you breaks in the overcast at the Gate House Plaza. And I see you too - skiers at the top of Heaven's Gate getting trying to get a little Friday afternoon sun tan. Then there's the base of Mad River Glen stuck with visibility of about 200 feet in low clouds and fog. It's comical ! 

The sun is coming however, I am still saying it. Just a few intervals on Saturday that should include a sunset late in the day to go along with the sub-freezing 25-30 temperatures. The northerly winds of 10-20 mph on the upper mountain will keep wind chill temperatures lower and are also pushing in the drier air that will help mix out the stubborn low level moisture and decrease the cloudiness.  The clear skies will help temperatures drop to near 10 Saturday night but a mostly sunny ski on Sunday will help temperatures recover to the 30 day mark. Its bluest sky we will have seen in two weeks and it's expected to continue Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with a similar range of temperatures that begin within a few degrees of 10 and rise to near 30 (Monday's temps are likely to top out only around 25 with strong northerly winds). The early part of next week is certainly appears to be a real nice stretch of traditional winter weather as we continue to remain an active participant in the North American torch avoidance program. The upper Midwest and central Canada will continue to be incredibly warm in this time frame. Unfortunately, our eligibility to remain part of this aforementioned program appears ready to expire as we move toward Friday of next week. Thursday is also expected to feature a mild afternoon but it continues to appear dry which is certainly good news. 

Some sort of thaw late next week that includes wet weather appears more likely either Friday February 9th or Saturday the 10th. That said, there was certainly evidence on several of the computer simulations that we can avoid disaster. Even the European and Canadian model which have been competing to simulate the mildest outcome in this time frame have moved to limit the thawing Friday into Saturday. There's still some rain indicated, but for now it appears less than a half inch and doesn't include the wind and high dewpoints that just eat away at snow in a short span of time.  Snow showers are also indicated as a possibility as the weekend progresses though temperatures are only expected to cool toward the freezing mark. 

One by one, we are lining up the teleconnection indices necessary for a wintry second half of February. The AO is expected to turn negative by later next week and once its joined by a building +PNA structure in the jet stream, things will get much more interesting. For the week of February 12th - 16th, temperatures are likely to stay on the mild side as arctic air slowly rebuilds over Canada. Even without the arctic air over New England, interior sections are set up for some snow potential from storminess followed by a period of colder temperatures more likely by the weekend of February 17th and 18th and perhaps beyond.

Clouds fail to break until the weekend with only a light accumulation of snow expected

 I've actually been keeping score in a little spreadsheet at home and have logged 24 out of 31 days with clouds for the month of January. I certainly hoped to see some of those low clouds periodically break this week and so far that has been a big fail. I still think sunnier times lay ahead this weekend and early next week, but man they don't make this easy. 

Higher resolution models show clouds remaining in place for Thursday, keeping temperatures just below the freezing mark on most of the mountain. At least those clouds should produce a bit of light snow for us Thursday evening, night and Friday morning. It's enough to produce an inch or two of light snow by the start of the ski day Friday, but winds appear to remain more northerly limiting the moisture from Lake Champlain thus putting a lower ceiling on accumulations. The other limiting factor for snow Friday is an area of enhanced lower pressure south of Long Island. This is likely to produce some early morning rain and snow for them but puts a lid on the moisture over us. I think we see flurries for a while on Friday with those accumulations remaining in the lighter 1-2 inch category. I expect some blue sky and maybe even a sunset for Friday evening as the storminess departs and northwest flow at jet stream level ushers in more dry air. 

What about that sunshine for the weekend ? We still have what should be a sunny start to Saturday before clouds from a very weak clipper system to our east threaten to bring at least an interval of cloudiness (see I am moving the goalposts already). Sunday, Monday and Tuesday all appear to feature sunshine with the monster, mostly rain producing southern streamer staying well to our south. I actually noticed a bit of a northward shift with this feature but the storm is expected to stay well offshore and not have a significant impact on our weather though we will continue to watch it. 

As next week progresses, it is again likely the grow cloudier with moderating temperatures. Readings are likely to stay well below the freezing mark and not far from seasonable levels to start the week and later in the week we can expect a stretch of above freezing temperatures. Models are showing more evidence of  resistance in the warming later next week which is good news and also suggest that at least some frozen precipitation remains a possibility. After that, there are much clearer indications that the weather pattern fundamentals improve. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to actually turn negative early next week (It's currently a very unfavorable +2) and once this aligns with a positive PNA structure, colder weather is expected to return both the southern Canada and eventually New England. The weekend of the 10th and 11th continues to appear quite mild  with colder weather and accompanying storminess returning just before Valentine's Day.

Drier jet stream keeps the snow potential lower and warmer temps west of us over the next week

 The 3 or so inches of snow that fell Sunday evening was very much needed following the stretch of above freezing temperatures late last week. We now enter a stretch of drier weather aided by a dry jet stream. We are still set up to avoid any excessive warmth through the middle of next week or around February 7th, but we have only one real chance for meaningful snow which i will highlight below and a pipe dream early next week. 

The cloud-cover stuck with us through all of Monday over the Vermont mountains and though we are expecting predominantly dry weather through the ski day Wednesday, sunshine is expected to stay limited though we should see intervals of blue sky. I am prepared to deliver the news that we have the best stretch of sunshine in weeks on the way however, I can almost promise ! Temperatures are expected to remain just below the freezing both on Tuesday and Wednesday and then creep above the freezing mark Thursday even as clouds thicken. 

A clipper system is expected to drop right over the top of us from Quebec Thursday evening and spread some very light and sporadic snow over northern Vermont as it does this. As this system continues to push south and east of us, it will turn winds and provide us with a nice opportunity for snow showers enhanced by our elevation and the unfrozen lake to our west. As we get closer to Friday, I will be able to focus in on stability parameters and better describe the snowfall potential early Friday. One thing we do have a better handle on as of Monday is timing. Snow showers appear likely through early Friday afternoon and then dry air envelops the region thanks in large part to that  jet stream I described. If you like bluebird winter days and like them on the weekend, I have good news. Blue sky can be expected both Saturday and Sunday with amazing visibility and afternoon temperatures in the teens and 20's. Though it won't be quite as cold as the weekend of Jan 20th and 21st and certainly sunnier, I would still expect some gusty northwest winds Saturday (20 mph) and sub-zero wind chills. Sunday's winds won't be calm either, but a touch friendlier than Saturday. 

The bluebird weather appears likely to continue through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It would take a massive northward shift related to a storm system expected to drench the southeast U.S. Sunday and Monday to disrupt this outlook. Chances are good a northward shift of this magnitude doesn't occur and our stretch of sunshine continues, but one can never say never with these types of events given the absence of a strong polar jet. Assuming it remains sunny in accordance with my current expectations, temperatures will slowly moderate reaching the middle 20's Monday, high 20's Tuesday and near 30 on Wednesday. The clear skies will allow for some chilly overnights early next week and the snow cover puts sub-zero readings in play. 

I love how we've managed to avoid the mid-continent torch through the early part of February, but ensembles are starting to provide us more focus on a period of warmer temperatures around the weekend of February 10th. Interestingly the teleconnection indices start to improve by then and colder air is certainly showing signs of reestablishing itself over Canada even as the east coast warms up. The most encouraging feature by mid February is the appearance of some ridging over western North America and Alaska by the middle of the month. Alaska is in the midst of a vicious cold wave that has largely erased what was a very mild start to the year. A good portion of the state is now below normal for January and the state's largest city, Anchorage, is enjoying a high of 10 degrees Monday with a 36 inch snow pack. Yes, it's Alaska but Mad River Glen averages more snow, similar temperatures and more daylight.  Speaking of daylight, our first 5 o'clock sunset comes on February 1st this year, just ahead of our big stretch of expected sunshine.