The most effective way to get cold air in high quantities down into the United States and more importantly into New England is to have a high latitude "Omega Block" in the jet stream. One is expected to develop over the course of the next week. It will be closer to 145 degrees west, or over Alaska and one would prefer it to be situated closer to 120 west. It will thus take some time I think to enjoy the fruits of such labor if you can call it that. We will need to be patient and remember that December can be very discrepant about delivering the goods even when cold air seems to be prevailing. Such will be the case perhaps over the next two weeks but by mid-December, I think much progress will be made as far as getting the season off to a positive start.
It has been awhile since we have had any intrusion of widespread cold in the United States. This will change later this week and as it does so, the southern branch will produce its first in what should be many major weather systems. Model guidance from both the American (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) suggest that the storm will track too far inland and that the supply of cold air in front of the system will be limited at best. It is thus appearing very likely that we will not see mostly rain from precipitation that should fall through much of the day this Thursday. Both cold air and some instability will arrive in the wake of this rain for the weekend and this should some light accumulations of snow to the Vermont high country but it will not be enough to open MRG.
The "probable" rain on Thursday is one of the consequences of the "Omega Block" in the jet stream located at 145 instead of 120 west. There is a chance that the positioning of critical features such as this "Omega Block" will improve and ensembles indicate that teleconnections will become more favorable as time progresses. I am not entirely sure of this however and would offer the possibility that another system similar to Thursday's could bring mixed precipitation as opposed to all snow to the region sometime around December 7th-8th. Thereafter, however, I think much colder air will maintain control of New England for at least a week through mid December. With this will also mean a chance for meaningful snow between December 8th through the 15th.
Thats all I have for now, we can dive into details as they come more relavant to skiing.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
El Nino battles a rapid expanse of snow/ice for control of our 09-10 winter
The amount of emails I have received would either indicate either an unusually high outbreak of the "winter itch" or simply a friendly nudge to commence the bloggings. Well, commencement time is here and ski season at MRG is likely only a few weeks away. The winter forecast has by no means been sorted out (Let's not kid ourselves here it never is !!) but expectations for this winter have been interesting to say the least. Off the heels of the coldest "North American" winter this decade there has been hype and then more hype for the upcoming winter. Much of it no doubt generated from those hungry for a bit of publicity and print. What seems lost in all this is the strengthening El Nino which in recent weeks has indicated it intends to be worthy variable this winter and one certainly that will earn plenty of mention in our annual pre-season post.
El Nino Comes Alive
To recap, the last two winters have been free of any El Nino. 2007-2008 featured a moderate La Nina, 2008-2009 was a weaker version of '07-'08. Both winters fit nicely in to the New England winter stereotype which included some big highlights, some forgettable lowlights and a few deep freezes. Sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical pacific have undergone a rapid transition over the last several months and by autumn, an El Nino event has been born. This ENSO event has more recently turned into a more significant event as sea surface temperatures in the critical regions of the tropcial pacific have warmed to 1.7 C above what is considered normal. Typically I deem a significant ENSO event to be anything 1.5 above (El Nino) or 1.5 below (La Nina). If your interested in learning more bout El Nino or La Nina then hit up Wikipedia for anwers. For the blog, and the winter forecast, we are more interested in actual impacts as opposed to definitions. Historically El Nino's of a moderate to strong variety produce a lot of mild weather centered mostly over the mid-continent and mostly over the higher latitudes. The central provinces of Canada for example such as Manitoba and Saskatchewan typically see the warmest temperatures relative (in North America) to normal in a moderate to strong El Nino. Across interior New England the impacts of mild weather are felt to a lesser extent but one would find it tough in the last half a century to find a moderate or strong El Nino that would produce a colder than average winter. It is therefore, statistically a bad bet to expect a winter like last in terms of cold. In terms of snow however it is a entirely different story. The jet stream in a typical El Nino behaves very distinctly and brings very moist systems across the southern tier of the country. Flooding across the south is very common and the storms eventually tend to interact with the highly baraclinic Atlantic Coast and evolve into big time precipitation producers across both coastal and interior areas of the northeast. The lack of cold can be a recurring problem for coastal areas as far as the receiving of natural new snow but is less so for interior areas and even less for interior areas with the advantage of favorable oragraphy. It is for this reason that El Nino can get me very excited. With even a limited supply of cold air, El Nino is capable fo producing some fantastic results for the interior northeast and snowy winters such as 06-07, 02-03, 92-93 and 69-70 are in play again. Preferrably I would like to see El Nino weaken a touch as the heart of winter approaches and the supply of cold air is always going to be a concern but so long as we have access to cold, the snow will not be far behind.
PDO
Moving on to another favorite variable the PDO, we have watched this make its long awaited decadal switch in the last few years. This will allow La Nina events to occur more frequently than El Nino events over the course of a few decades but this yeah appears to be one of the exceptions with the development of an El Nino and the slightly positive PDO. The biggest months of snow and cold in Vermont tend to occur when the PDO is more positive as opposed to negative although this didn't stop some of the good periods of snow and cold that we got the last two years when the PDO was negative. Generally though, to achieve a sustainable period of rain-free, lots of powder, lots of cold one would want a positive PDO and I am thus happy to see it slightly above zero.
Snow and Ice expansion
And we go to the expanse of ice and snow that earned itself a headline in the headline. I have been indeed very impressed this year with the increases in snow and ice this autumn. In October the total area of snow and ice across the Northern Hemisphere was over 20 millions of square km. This has only happened a handful of times since this data has been recorded in the early 70's. The Rutgers snow lab also tracks this on a weekly basis and the most recent week ranked 6th of 42 in total area of Northern Hemisphere snow/ice coverage. We saw some similar readings in another semi El Nino winter of 06-07 and similar results in the El Nino winter of 02-03. Both winters saw good snow although 06-07 was the one winter of the top 6 which saw above normal temperatures. The other 5 can be categorized as normal or below normal. The impacts of snow and ice on the outcome of winter has been debated amongst forecasters although I maintain that although its effects are very indirect they are still quite profound. Cold air pools more efficiently over snow and ice and thus cold air in a cold pattern can be amplified and a warm pattern mitigated. The winter of 07-08 featured a relatively normal expanse of snow and ice but by January, the extent of snow and ice had grown to a seasonal record and helped turn what looked to be a mild February into a relatively normal one in the eastern U.S. and a very cold one in the central United States. If the snow continues to expand as it has so far this winter it will be just the medicine we need to combat the mild forces of El Nino.
In my circles, there has been talk and references to the QBO or the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. This in short measures the direction of the stratospheric wind in the tropical pacific. I tried to do some homework on this and found some good work on its relationship to tropical activity in the Pacific and Atlantic. I also found it to have some relationship to ENSO. I had a tough time being convinced of its effects on a mid latitude winter. I therefore am not using it but it has been referenced as a justification for a cold and snowy forecast in 2009-2010. Look it up on Wikipedia if you would like to learn more.
I have not yet been in advanced discussion with the folks at MRG about a joint blog-mountain sponsorship campaign. If however you have a local business (lodge, restaurant, retail) and would like a way to get the word out to the MRG demographic than send me an email. I would imagine money going to some MRG project and space to the right of the blog dedicated to your business. I have been slightly hesitant about doing this but I think it might have the effect of ensuring that I get off my lazy rear-end and post a few updates. More on this to follow if there continues to be interest.
Summary and a final and very fearless forecast for 2009-2010
The post must include a short summary and this must include an actual forecast so the details are as follows. El Nino tilts the range of possible temperature scenarios to the warm side but within this range I think temperatures will be on the cold side (did I say that right ??) thanks to the rapid expanse of snow cover. Temperatures will thus fall in the normal to perhaps slightly above normal range. Snowfall on the other hand will be outstanding and I am going to predict the snowiest winter since the blog began and will include one lone epic period similar to what happened in February of 2007 and Christmas/New Years 2002-2003. Snowfall in the end will exceed 300 inches. I have gotten a few emails about the weekend which looks stormy through early Saturday. The storm will develop in the Ohio Valley and intensify upon interaction with the Atlantic Coast. Rain will turn to a wet snow Friday evening and Friday night and accumulate significantly at the high elevations while somewhat more insignificantly in the valley's. It will surely not be enough to open MRG since mild weather is on its heels. I will post more on the next two weeks this upcoming weekend but I typically don't overextend my blogging until the mountain opens and this remains a few weeks away.
El Nino Comes Alive
To recap, the last two winters have been free of any El Nino. 2007-2008 featured a moderate La Nina, 2008-2009 was a weaker version of '07-'08. Both winters fit nicely in to the New England winter stereotype which included some big highlights, some forgettable lowlights and a few deep freezes. Sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical pacific have undergone a rapid transition over the last several months and by autumn, an El Nino event has been born. This ENSO event has more recently turned into a more significant event as sea surface temperatures in the critical regions of the tropcial pacific have warmed to 1.7 C above what is considered normal. Typically I deem a significant ENSO event to be anything 1.5 above (El Nino) or 1.5 below (La Nina). If your interested in learning more bout El Nino or La Nina then hit up Wikipedia for anwers. For the blog, and the winter forecast, we are more interested in actual impacts as opposed to definitions. Historically El Nino's of a moderate to strong variety produce a lot of mild weather centered mostly over the mid-continent and mostly over the higher latitudes. The central provinces of Canada for example such as Manitoba and Saskatchewan typically see the warmest temperatures relative (in North America) to normal in a moderate to strong El Nino. Across interior New England the impacts of mild weather are felt to a lesser extent but one would find it tough in the last half a century to find a moderate or strong El Nino that would produce a colder than average winter. It is therefore, statistically a bad bet to expect a winter like last in terms of cold. In terms of snow however it is a entirely different story. The jet stream in a typical El Nino behaves very distinctly and brings very moist systems across the southern tier of the country. Flooding across the south is very common and the storms eventually tend to interact with the highly baraclinic Atlantic Coast and evolve into big time precipitation producers across both coastal and interior areas of the northeast. The lack of cold can be a recurring problem for coastal areas as far as the receiving of natural new snow but is less so for interior areas and even less for interior areas with the advantage of favorable oragraphy. It is for this reason that El Nino can get me very excited. With even a limited supply of cold air, El Nino is capable fo producing some fantastic results for the interior northeast and snowy winters such as 06-07, 02-03, 92-93 and 69-70 are in play again. Preferrably I would like to see El Nino weaken a touch as the heart of winter approaches and the supply of cold air is always going to be a concern but so long as we have access to cold, the snow will not be far behind.
PDO
Moving on to another favorite variable the PDO, we have watched this make its long awaited decadal switch in the last few years. This will allow La Nina events to occur more frequently than El Nino events over the course of a few decades but this yeah appears to be one of the exceptions with the development of an El Nino and the slightly positive PDO. The biggest months of snow and cold in Vermont tend to occur when the PDO is more positive as opposed to negative although this didn't stop some of the good periods of snow and cold that we got the last two years when the PDO was negative. Generally though, to achieve a sustainable period of rain-free, lots of powder, lots of cold one would want a positive PDO and I am thus happy to see it slightly above zero.
Snow and Ice expansion
And we go to the expanse of ice and snow that earned itself a headline in the headline. I have been indeed very impressed this year with the increases in snow and ice this autumn. In October the total area of snow and ice across the Northern Hemisphere was over 20 millions of square km. This has only happened a handful of times since this data has been recorded in the early 70's. The Rutgers snow lab also tracks this on a weekly basis and the most recent week ranked 6th of 42 in total area of Northern Hemisphere snow/ice coverage. We saw some similar readings in another semi El Nino winter of 06-07 and similar results in the El Nino winter of 02-03. Both winters saw good snow although 06-07 was the one winter of the top 6 which saw above normal temperatures. The other 5 can be categorized as normal or below normal. The impacts of snow and ice on the outcome of winter has been debated amongst forecasters although I maintain that although its effects are very indirect they are still quite profound. Cold air pools more efficiently over snow and ice and thus cold air in a cold pattern can be amplified and a warm pattern mitigated. The winter of 07-08 featured a relatively normal expanse of snow and ice but by January, the extent of snow and ice had grown to a seasonal record and helped turn what looked to be a mild February into a relatively normal one in the eastern U.S. and a very cold one in the central United States. If the snow continues to expand as it has so far this winter it will be just the medicine we need to combat the mild forces of El Nino.
In my circles, there has been talk and references to the QBO or the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. This in short measures the direction of the stratospheric wind in the tropical pacific. I tried to do some homework on this and found some good work on its relationship to tropical activity in the Pacific and Atlantic. I also found it to have some relationship to ENSO. I had a tough time being convinced of its effects on a mid latitude winter. I therefore am not using it but it has been referenced as a justification for a cold and snowy forecast in 2009-2010. Look it up on Wikipedia if you would like to learn more.
I have not yet been in advanced discussion with the folks at MRG about a joint blog-mountain sponsorship campaign. If however you have a local business (lodge, restaurant, retail) and would like a way to get the word out to the MRG demographic than send me an email. I would imagine money going to some MRG project and space to the right of the blog dedicated to your business. I have been slightly hesitant about doing this but I think it might have the effect of ensuring that I get off my lazy rear-end and post a few updates. More on this to follow if there continues to be interest.
Summary and a final and very fearless forecast for 2009-2010
The post must include a short summary and this must include an actual forecast so the details are as follows. El Nino tilts the range of possible temperature scenarios to the warm side but within this range I think temperatures will be on the cold side (did I say that right ??) thanks to the rapid expanse of snow cover. Temperatures will thus fall in the normal to perhaps slightly above normal range. Snowfall on the other hand will be outstanding and I am going to predict the snowiest winter since the blog began and will include one lone epic period similar to what happened in February of 2007 and Christmas/New Years 2002-2003. Snowfall in the end will exceed 300 inches. I have gotten a few emails about the weekend which looks stormy through early Saturday. The storm will develop in the Ohio Valley and intensify upon interaction with the Atlantic Coast. Rain will turn to a wet snow Friday evening and Friday night and accumulate significantly at the high elevations while somewhat more insignificantly in the valley's. It will surely not be enough to open MRG since mild weather is on its heels. I will post more on the next two weeks this upcoming weekend but I typically don't overextend my blogging until the mountain opens and this remains a few weeks away.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
A season recapped and other thoughts
A season which turned into the coldest statistically since winters have been blogged at the SCWB had some big highlights and some bare spots wedged in between. La Nina was prominent although not nearly as strong as the 2007-2008 version and the weather behaved as such with the southeast ridge making a few unwanted appearances but not quite as many as the year prior. The PDO has some Meteorologists talking, since for the second straight year it was substantially negative (http://www.esr.org/pdo_index.html) perhaps marking the decadal turn into negative territory that many have been anticipating. I have not ventured too much global warming/climate change talk but I will say that there is some statistical evidence that the warming we have experienced in the last century has actually cyclically slowed to a halt during the periods when the PDO is negative. If this occurs again it will be just the excuse many of the would-be experts are looking to get on Fox News and bash the real scientific community on all of their wasted and politically motivated efforts to understand an issue that has little statistical merit (lots of sarcasm in there in case it wasn't noticed). I actually don't consider myself a scientific expert on climate change and my research on the issue is limited to a few courses in college and the Internet. I can say though that the real scientific community has certainly been proven wrong and could be proven wrong here but there work is hardly politically motivated. Many in fact are totally indifferent to politics and just because Al Gore has become the face for global warming does not mean there is a global conspiracy by scientists to whip us into a frenzy about a phantom environmental threat. And its embarrassing that our news media has sunk to a point where the weather at Al Gore's speech venues seems to have more statistical significance than what is happening at the Wilkens Ice Shelf in Antarctica which as of April 5th officially splintered. My rant is not meant to be political, I only wish that our society could more easily separate the scientific community from the politics and accept the fact that scientists have been and will continue to be wrong for reasons that have nothing to do with the political.
Getting back to our most recent winter, there was a corridor stretching from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest and eastward into southern New England which saw over 150 percent of normal snowfall. In many of these areas snowfall this past winter exceeded that of a year ago. We were not fortunate enough for such a result and were on the northern edge of a lot of big snows. We also had a glaring lack of elevation induced snows and the evidence of this can be gathered easily by looking at seasonal snowfall at Burlington which had a positive deviation from normal while MRG had a slight negative deviation. Our thaws were very short-lived but at times they were crippling. Christmas week was New England weather at its most infamous. We had two incredible storms on the 19th and 22nd of December which brought 3 feet of incredible powder to the Green Mountain chain but was followed closely by a thaw which wiped almost everything out and effectively closed MRG for a week. We made a gradual and ultimately glorious comeback by the middle of January but this was followed by a long dry spell for 3 weeks in February prior to the epic final weekend of the month. March was very disappointing. We had some cold early in the month but could do very little with the airmass in terms of elevation snow and did virtually nothing from the passing storm systems during the middle of the month. It was, overall a good year that collapsed a bit early for my liking but a perfect winter is hard to find and I will take this one over so many others.
I did receive lots of emails requesting continuous updates through April. I do very much appreciate the feedback and particularly the interest but I have historically kept my updates coordinated around MRG's ski season. I did some thinking however and perhaps I need some further motivation to provide updates through a broader portion of the ski season. I have thought about opening the blog to sponsors as a way of raising money for some sort of charity. I will consider this over the summer adn then perhaps in autumn, if there is interest I can start blogging for powder and for charity. Have a good summer.
Getting back to our most recent winter, there was a corridor stretching from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest and eastward into southern New England which saw over 150 percent of normal snowfall. In many of these areas snowfall this past winter exceeded that of a year ago. We were not fortunate enough for such a result and were on the northern edge of a lot of big snows. We also had a glaring lack of elevation induced snows and the evidence of this can be gathered easily by looking at seasonal snowfall at Burlington which had a positive deviation from normal while MRG had a slight negative deviation. Our thaws were very short-lived but at times they were crippling. Christmas week was New England weather at its most infamous. We had two incredible storms on the 19th and 22nd of December which brought 3 feet of incredible powder to the Green Mountain chain but was followed closely by a thaw which wiped almost everything out and effectively closed MRG for a week. We made a gradual and ultimately glorious comeback by the middle of January but this was followed by a long dry spell for 3 weeks in February prior to the epic final weekend of the month. March was very disappointing. We had some cold early in the month but could do very little with the airmass in terms of elevation snow and did virtually nothing from the passing storm systems during the middle of the month. It was, overall a good year that collapsed a bit early for my liking but a perfect winter is hard to find and I will take this one over so many others.
I did receive lots of emails requesting continuous updates through April. I do very much appreciate the feedback and particularly the interest but I have historically kept my updates coordinated around MRG's ski season. I did some thinking however and perhaps I need some further motivation to provide updates through a broader portion of the ski season. I have thought about opening the blog to sponsors as a way of raising money for some sort of charity. I will consider this over the summer adn then perhaps in autumn, if there is interest I can start blogging for powder and for charity. Have a good summer.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Lack of snow in March ended a good season a bit early
Temperatures did not stray from normal that dramatically with the exception of a few days. The lack of snow however in a month that is traditionally quite snowy in Vermont was a bit startling. In the end less than 15 inches of snow fell if my math is correct and the one big storm early in the month slalomed around the state for the most part hitting coastal cities as opposed to the interior. Interestingly, March of 2007 had some warm weather in the back half of the month but two big storms, a couple of feet of terrain enhanced snow and a nice stretch of spring skiing is a striking contrast to the last 30 days. There is more warm weather and more rain on the way for this week, a byproduct of the pattern which is causing massive problems in the northern plains which began as flooding and is now evolving into an epic late-winter week with one blizzard set for March 31st and another huge snow event during the upcoming weekend. Both systems will produce rain at MRG as both storms track well into Quebec.
As far as you back country and Tuckerman's enthusiasts are concerned I would act fast and dodge the rain drops if you want to ski down to the base. The upper part of Tucks will be fine and should get a burst of winter during the middle part of April as the pattern appears as if it will turn both unstable and a bit on the chilly side. I will do one more final wrap on the season but if this is your last SCWB read then have a good summer and stay safe !!
As far as you back country and Tuckerman's enthusiasts are concerned I would act fast and dodge the rain drops if you want to ski down to the base. The upper part of Tucks will be fine and should get a burst of winter during the middle part of April as the pattern appears as if it will turn both unstable and a bit on the chilly side. I will do one more final wrap on the season but if this is your last SCWB read then have a good summer and stay safe !!
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Winter has been undergoing a slow fizzle but may crash altogether next week
We have experienced an amazing stretch of early spring weather. Lots of sunshiny days, lots of dry weather, lots of days where temps are above the all important 32-mark. There has been plenty of mud also on the dirt roads as the snow pack very slowly erodes over the Vermont high country. It has been a slow erosion since the pattern is still supporting some relative cold. It hasn't amounted to winter-like cold but it has, for the most part, served to provide for some cool nights. The cold will be reenforced Sunday and it will be done via the side door as a front crashes southward out of Quebec. There will be some snow that falls as this occurs although most of it will be farther east and the instability will not be strong enough to support a sizable terrain-induced accumulation. Flurries and snow showers will continue sporadically from late in the day Sunday through early Tuesday but accumulations will be minimal.
Temperatures will climb above the freezing Saturday afternoon and perhaps for a short time Sunday before remaining below freezing through most of Tuesday. After that, temperatures will turn mild and will do so very decisively. The pattern by late next week be driven by the PNA which will turn negative and favor a more active and cool scenario in the west. Mild weather will flood the northeast and should provide some great spring skiing while the snow lasts. I am not sure if we can survive the milder temperatures however and in spite some cooler weather that might follow during the last few days of the month it might be too little too late.
Temperatures will climb above the freezing Saturday afternoon and perhaps for a short time Sunday before remaining below freezing through most of Tuesday. After that, temperatures will turn mild and will do so very decisively. The pattern by late next week be driven by the PNA which will turn negative and favor a more active and cool scenario in the west. Mild weather will flood the northeast and should provide some great spring skiing while the snow lasts. I am not sure if we can survive the milder temperatures however and in spite some cooler weather that might follow during the last few days of the month it might be too little too late.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
A week later, a lot of spring later, still some cold to come but little snow
Recent days have not been nearly as cold as I would have expected but overall it has been brilliant. An amazing stretch of sunshine and warm afternoons that is really quite rare around these parts in March and I am told quite favorable for the maple syrup trade. The skiing is great also particularly in the afternoons in the high spring sun softened snow.
Following the rain showers Wednesday, colder weather will again re-emerge across the Vermont high country Thursday on blustery northwest winds. The upper trough responsible for the return to cold will become situated off the Atlantic Coast and the northwest flow in the jet stream is typically a stable scenario for the state where terrain induced snow will be tough to come by. Friday will be a relatively chilly day with temperatures struggling to exceed the freezing mark and we could see some light snow on Saturday as the second in the series of off-shore jet amplifications occurs. In the end though the new snow will amount to very little. Sunday will simply be a chilly and blustery day by March standards with temperatures up around freezing in the afternoon and well below freezing at night. Snowfall for the weekend will amount to 2-3 inches at best and a trace at worst.
Temperatures will modify quite rapidly as the often do in March early next week. The region will start to lose the support of the favorable winter teleconnections and by the middle of the week spring weather will dominate the playing field again and snow cover will continue to gradually erode. It is quite rare to see the first 18 days of March go by with less than 5 inches of snow and it has been years since I have seen such tranquillity in a normally volatile month but there is simply not that much fight in winter right now aside for a few chilly days.
The end of next week should feature another rain event and a bit of uncertainty thereafter regarding the nature of the airmass that follows. The american model suggests a return to seasonable or even below normal temps while the european argues for a continuation of relative warmth.
Following the rain showers Wednesday, colder weather will again re-emerge across the Vermont high country Thursday on blustery northwest winds. The upper trough responsible for the return to cold will become situated off the Atlantic Coast and the northwest flow in the jet stream is typically a stable scenario for the state where terrain induced snow will be tough to come by. Friday will be a relatively chilly day with temperatures struggling to exceed the freezing mark and we could see some light snow on Saturday as the second in the series of off-shore jet amplifications occurs. In the end though the new snow will amount to very little. Sunday will simply be a chilly and blustery day by March standards with temperatures up around freezing in the afternoon and well below freezing at night. Snowfall for the weekend will amount to 2-3 inches at best and a trace at worst.
Temperatures will modify quite rapidly as the often do in March early next week. The region will start to lose the support of the favorable winter teleconnections and by the middle of the week spring weather will dominate the playing field again and snow cover will continue to gradually erode. It is quite rare to see the first 18 days of March go by with less than 5 inches of snow and it has been years since I have seen such tranquillity in a normally volatile month but there is simply not that much fight in winter right now aside for a few chilly days.
The end of next week should feature another rain event and a bit of uncertainty thereafter regarding the nature of the airmass that follows. The american model suggests a return to seasonable or even below normal temps while the european argues for a continuation of relative warmth.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Cold weather returns but snowfall through the weekend will be a struggle
The remnants of a what was once a viciously cold arctic air mass in western Canada will make its long expected arrival Thursday but stability parameters are too high right now to support much measurable snow. Tomorrow marks the beginning of what negative NAO has produced in terms of a weather pattern. The trough in the jet stream will re-position itself in the east through the weekend, weaken slightly, and then strengthen significantly into next week as all three major teleconnection indices briefly fall into the favorable category before turning mixed again by the 18th of the month. The cold however will be of the dry variety and will be accompanied by healthy amounts of sun on Thursday, Friday and at least part of Saturday. Afternoon temperatures on Saturday should finally respond nicely to the sunshine and will creep above the freezing mark during the afternoon and will thus soften the base a bit.
The re-amplification of the trough in the east will begin to occur Sunday as an impulse in the jet drops due south out of eastern Canada. This will be the first of two powerful March jet impulses in a span of a few days. These types of disturbances are very common in March and can often stir things up rather efficiently and produce some big snows. This system unfortunately will drop southeast in a trajectory that will make it nearly impossible for a big storm to develop. We can expect a flurries and snow showers Saturday night and Sunday evening but a light accumulation is about the most that can be expected. The above freezing temps from Saturday will turn to temps of the below freezing variety Sunday.
Chilly but not uncomfortable temps will continue to grip much of New England through Monday as the second of the aforementioned jet disturbances dives south out of the western Great Lakes. This upper air system brings with it more potential as far as big snow is concerned as it will carve a very deep trough along the east coast by the middle to later part of next week. There is all sorts of disagreement on specifics but the potential for an east coast storm is there for now. Good chance it also goes out to sea but this folks is what March madness is about. I am sure we will see a few interesting twists and turns regarding next week. We do now it will stay relatively chilly through most of the week and we shouldn't lose much of the base that remains.
Much of the key features in the long wave pattern will be pushed eastward, again the result of a slight re-arranging of our teleconnection indices. A good chunk of the country will warm by March 20th but whether or not this warmth reaches New England and eliminates our chances for new snow remains a question. There remains a chance with the continued downstream blocking in the jet stream, that conditions remain cold across the northeast.
The re-amplification of the trough in the east will begin to occur Sunday as an impulse in the jet drops due south out of eastern Canada. This will be the first of two powerful March jet impulses in a span of a few days. These types of disturbances are very common in March and can often stir things up rather efficiently and produce some big snows. This system unfortunately will drop southeast in a trajectory that will make it nearly impossible for a big storm to develop. We can expect a flurries and snow showers Saturday night and Sunday evening but a light accumulation is about the most that can be expected. The above freezing temps from Saturday will turn to temps of the below freezing variety Sunday.
Chilly but not uncomfortable temps will continue to grip much of New England through Monday as the second of the aforementioned jet disturbances dives south out of the western Great Lakes. This upper air system brings with it more potential as far as big snow is concerned as it will carve a very deep trough along the east coast by the middle to later part of next week. There is all sorts of disagreement on specifics but the potential for an east coast storm is there for now. Good chance it also goes out to sea but this folks is what March madness is about. I am sure we will see a few interesting twists and turns regarding next week. We do now it will stay relatively chilly through most of the week and we shouldn't lose much of the base that remains.
Much of the key features in the long wave pattern will be pushed eastward, again the result of a slight re-arranging of our teleconnection indices. A good chunk of the country will warm by March 20th but whether or not this warmth reaches New England and eliminates our chances for new snow remains a question. There remains a chance with the continued downstream blocking in the jet stream, that conditions remain cold across the northeast.
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