The 2008 sign-off

I will start the finale by apologizing. I have been a bit MIA due to some extraneous events and a ridiculous amount of travel and I therefore was not able to report on the extended period of spring skiing during the first half of April. The blog wouldn't be complete however without a proper farewell and so I will take this opportunity to wish everyone a happy spring and summer.

The winter of 2007-2008 took many of us prognosticaters by surprise. At the surface it would seem that perhaps there was no surprise. Temperatures came in above average over a broad area of the eastern seaboard and most of the major metropolitan areas saw below average snowfall and in some cases well below average. Meanwhile the configuration of weather was consistent with that of a La Nina. All of those midwestern cities that have received so little snowfall year after year this decade suddenly saw a big seasonal total. So will I take the credit for getting all of this right ? No, I will not. In my seasonal prognostication, I drew way too many analogies to 2005-2006 and this winter deviated quite significantly from that forgettable catastrophe.

Even as temperatures averaged above the 30 year mean we call normal, a closer look at the behavior of actual weather reveals a somewhat different story. Let me put it simply by just saying that "the cold would not go down without a fight". It would in fact take more than one hand to count the amount of times that this want-to-be genius was selling the cold at a discount only to find that its actual worth was much greater. The warm forecast can be attributed to the snow cover in autumn (over a standard deviation below normal in the northern hemisphere). The cold weather could very well be attributed to the same variable - snow cover, which was close to a 30-year high in January (it took 3 months to completely reverse).

The cold came in handy on a number of occasions, providing us with the necessary ingredients for snow. It certainly was vital since the storm track was aimed right over interior New England as it often is during stronger La Nina winters. South of this storm track performed horribly this winter while north of this track performed quite well. Take a look at these snowfall totals for some selected cites.

Montreal, Quebec - 142 inches (169 % of average)
Burlington, VT - 100 inches (131 % of average)
Boston, MA - 51 inches (113 % of average)
Philadephia, PA - 6 inches (25 % of average)

In the the language of anomalies that is quite a contrast. In other words, some pain and suffering had to be endured by skiers/riders who stayed at Seven Springs or Snowshoe WV this year. Latitidude was key at we had it at MRG and this proved to save our season.

See everyone next winter !

Josh

Spring has sprung but winter will claw back

And as called on the blog, as part of the shortest update in history, we really did have a spectacular stretch of weather which provided for some great spring skiing. Thursday will be the last of such days as temperatures on the mountain again climb well into the 50's along with some sunshine. Friday however will bring the beginning of a very abrupt change. Both colder weather and clouds will mark what will be the start of a major pattern amplification. Talk of "amplifications" and east coast storms go hand and hand and much of Vermont will see an impact from a storm which will gather some strength across the Plains Thursday and advance eastward Friday. Temperatures are likely to be a bit warm at the surface to support snow and precipitation is likely to start as some rain on Friday. The rain will be periodic in nature but will continue through early Saturday along with temperatures in the 30's.

The longwave pattern will continue to amplify on Saturday and will allow the storm system to transfer much of its energy to the Atlantic Coast. This will also allow colder weather to advance both east and south into interior New England. By early Sunday temperatures both at the surface and aloft are cold enough to support snow but the storms organization that has yet to be answered. Specifically it is unclear whether we can tap into the remaining available moisture and get a significant period of snow out of this before the storm advances out to sea. From my perspective it seems very possible. Any snow is also very capable of accumulating later Sunday into Monday and at the very least conditions should be unstable enough for snow showers.

Winter will certainly make a splash in the form of temperatures on Sunday and Monday as temperatures are unlikely to climb much above freezing during the day. Thereafter, temperatures will modify very quickly and so will our spring conditions. 60-degree temperatures are again possible during the day by the middle part of the week.

Some wet snow and some rain Friday and then lots of warm dry days

A period of wet snow should fall in some very stale cold air during the day Friday. Even this however should change to rain later in the day and taper to drizzle during the evening. I can't get too excited about accumulations here given the temperatures. I am however excited about what looks to be an extended period of dry weather consisting of seasonable below freezing nights and warm days, many of which will be above 50 during the afternoon. Many of them also should feature sunshine. The clearing should take place during the middle of the day Saturday and Sunday should outstanding with plenty of sunshine. Enjoy it !

Snow is possible for the weekend but the cold is losing its grip as April begins

Some of the low clouds and rain impacting much of Vermont Tuesday morning will give way a few breaks of sun and very mild weather as strong southerly winds blow the hint of seasonal change to MRG. This will be followed by rain showers and much colder temperatures Wednesday along with the occasional morning snow shower. After high temps of above 60 in some of the lower elevations Tuesday, Wednesday will see temperatures of near freezing and wind chills in the teens. Those kind of temperature and weather swings are a notorious characteristic of New England in early spring.

Weekend system could bring snow (its close) but powder is unlikely
The below normal temps will continue through thursday thanks to a decaying but once very strong late season arctic airmass which has helped to keep winter firmly in charge across the west during the last few days. The airmass will continue to weaken while over the east and will actually be quite stale upon the arrival of our next weather system. The NAO continues to battle it out with the prevailing western upper trough and it appears as though we will get a more favorable out of this late week storm system when it passes. It is April however and given the weakening nature of the airmass next week, our prospects for "powder" appear low. Snow remains a possibility however and could arrive as early as Friday and continue into the night before either tapering off Saturday or turning to drizzle or a light rain. We may indeed see temperatures as low as 10 during the middle of this week but while the storm is in progress I really don't expect temps to stray too far from freezing and may hover just above freezing at the base.

Spring skiing next week
There continues to be a big compition between the teleconnection indicators as we head toward next week regarding the prevailing weather pattern. The NAO, which has a tendency to provide us with the more favorable storm tracks continues to be negative and favorable. The PNA however is not providing much in the way of support however and this typically has a more direct correlation to temperatures relative to normal. Once the system clears during the weekend, the return of sunshine will mean that afternoon temperatures climb to well above freezing over a succession of days beginning Sunday and persisting through next week. So long as we stay mainly dry, this will not be a bad thing as we will see the harvesting of the corn crop (corn snow i should say).

No rain this weekend but new snow will be limited

And it's somewhat disappointing to watch what was a borderline rain/snow event turn into a non-event. We have entered a pattern however where, with the help from the mostly negative NAO, most of the our potential weather makers have tracked further south verses some initial indications. As frustrating as this may be for the weekend, we are going to once again call on the NAO for some first aid next week as it looks like a couple of systems will need to track a bit further south in order to deliver us our much needed goods.

What our weekend storm will do
The weekend system in question exists as a result of a rather intense temperature contrast which stretches right across the middle of the country. The temperature contrast is often referred to by Meteorologists as a natural zone of "baroclinicity" and a baraclinic zone can be described as an area ripe for storm system development. And yes a storm will develop, but from an organizational standpoint it will fail to mature and will merely move east in disjointed fashion. Moisture from this system will arrive on the east coast as early as Thursday but will struggle to push north into Vermont. A period of snow is possible early Friday, perhaps enough for a light accumulation but later on Friday much drier air will prevail across the state and precipitation will be forced southward. The outcome for the weekend appears cold relative to normal and much drier relative to a few days ago. There is still enough low level instability for flurries throughout the day Saturday but the snow should not amount to much. Temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark on Saturday but should do so and then some on Sunday allowing for a bit of softer snow in the afternoon.

The next week looking glass
There are some competing forces in the pattern as we head into early April. We will see a substantial block develop across Greenland which will help to amplify the already negative NAO. At the same time however will be for the formation of a large trough across the west coast. The result will be a zone of above normal temps across the Plains which will at times try and extend eastward. One of these times will be during the arrival of another storm system early next week. This is why the NAO could prove to be instrumental here since this particular storm will need to trend south in order to provide us with any snow. We will be dealt a similar hand regarding yet another system which will impact the region in the time frame of next weekend. In between, I would expect temperatures to be a little below normal but in early April this can still mean well above freezing for afternoon high temperatures.

Our "big event" is way out to sea but we still are good for at least one powder day this week

And now that we finally have some support from our teleconnection indices, the east coast is seeing its most widespread outbreak of cold air since the middle of January. As it turned out, MRG didn't actually need this support but we nonetheless had to live on the edge with every storm and snowfall totals for the nothern part of the state this season were much greater than the southern part. As for the system early in the week, no part of the state is going to come out on the winning end of that one. The axis of the upper air support is simply too far east and changes in the pattern across the northwest part of the nation are going to force any storm on the playing field to continue moving east rather than north. The Greenland Block (-NAO) which was an important factor in the powder we received on Thursday and Friday is actually expected to weaken early this week but return in a weaker state next weekend. This would mean that winter is not quite finished with us yet.

The Powder Day - Wednesday is your best shot
More instability flurries and even a few snow showers are still possible Sunday and Monday although accumulations will be minimal if any and there will be intervals of sunshine through it all. On Tuesday we should see any morning sun give way to an overcast sky as a clipper system moves quickly through the Great Lakes. This system, as far as clippers go, actually does have some moisture and will begin depositing it on the mountain Tuesday evening in the form of snow. The pattern will continue to be progressive through the mid-part of the week meaning that the system will say good-bye almost before it says hello. The storm will however leave a pocket of instability in its wake and snow should continue for at least half the day on Wednesday. Between the 3-5 inches that falls Tuesday night and the additional 2-4 which is possible during the day on Wednesday, it seems that Wednesday is our winner as far the choice of ski days is concerned.

Next Weekend
There is yet another more significant storm or even a series of storms on the weather map late this week and into the weekend. The weather map actually has a very familiar look to it as the set-up appears oh so similar to the many systems which have impacted Vermont this winter. An amplifying trough in the west, a tight north-south gradient of temperatures in the east and a storm which could either track over southern New England and deliver us some snow or across the St Lawrence Valley which would thus yield a much less appetizing result. One encouraging aspect is the NAO which will be in the process of moving back into negative territory at this time and may help push this storm to the south. At this time, it does appear as if clouds and a period of snow is likely during the day Friday; thereafter, we could see a wide range of outcomes depending on the eventual track of the system). By Sunday, a return to colder weather is likely which would include the chance for TIS snow showers.

Early April continues to look on the chilly side of normal, at least until April 3rd or 4th. MRG's grand finale was April 7th and 8th last year and there are no spring thaw's on the horizon that would prevent the season from extending at least that far this year.

Friday's our best shot for a powder day

The NAO did its best and our midweek storm is now indicated to track over southern Vermont as opposed to the St Lawrence Valley. Still, we have the glaring lack of fresh cold air on the front flank of this system and this will hurt us as far as Wednesday is concerned. As advertised, the storm will slow its eastward progress over Nova Scotia and this will allow for the extended period of enhanced TIS activity I was hoping for.

The specifics
After a few inches of wet snow early Wednesday, we get a period mixed sleet and rain which will persist into the evening. After that the precipitation becomes more showery (in the form of rain) until the passage of the storms associated front and the arrival of our long awaited supply of cold. The snow showers will intensify gradually and temperatures will become cold enough during the evening for an accumulation of powder. It is easy to land yourself way off course when trying to predict amounts in these situations but my best guess is anywhere from 4 to 10 inches between late Thursday and late Friday. Low level instability is actually indicated to linger through the weekend although the depth of the unstable layer is expected to gradually decrease. This essentially means the snow showers will become less frequent and will be less intense. Still, we could see flurries all the way through Sunday.

Still watching early next week for the possibility of a big system
The system for early next week appears to be a "snow or no" situation which is rarity in this winter season. Most of the model guidance has been indicating that the trough may be too overwhelming to allow the storm to track close enough to the coast. That being said, the last run of the European model was flashing big event and the American model had the storm much closer to the coast verses its own prior indication. This will be worth a close watch as we do tend to see longwave troughs with shorter wavelengths in March as opposed to December in January. The timing of all this would have the impact of the storm beginning late Monday and persisting through Tuesday. Plenty of questions remained unanswered however and our chances for a big dump are still somewhat less than 50 percent.

A worst case scenerio for early next week would still allow for some new snow from a clipper system. There remains strong indications for a temperature moderation later in the week as the strength of the negative NAO and associated blocking begins to subside.