Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Thursday, February 25, 2010

The warm air has arrived

allowing the rain to fall at the base of Mad River Glen while the snow is falling in center city Philadelphia. The world is truly upside down at the moment and as it tries to right itself over the next 24 hours we are hoping this results in more powder. As it stands now, enough warmth will prevail across the region to keep things wet (snow at the summits, rain at the base) through Thursday night before colder weather arrives, straight out of Philadelphia. Atmospheric profiles tomorrow and Saturday reveal a moist and unstable lower troposphere and this level of instability extends up around 12,000 feet which is very conducive for some terrain enhanced snow both Friday and Saturday once we get it cold enough again. These events are very tough to predict accurately but I would expect snow showers to intensify Friday, and continue into Friday night and Saturday. I am not sure if we can turn Friday around into a powder day but I expect Saturday and perhaps Sunday to be winners. A few inches each day between Friday and Saturday will result in an additional foot although the bust potential is there in either direction.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

1-foot down hopefully a few more to come

and another one is imminent Wednesday as moisture continues to stream up from the open waters of the Atlantic. Snow which is falling with some serious intensity as of Wednesday morning will continue throughout the ski day. All this snow results from the so called "appetizer" or a relatively weak area of low pressure and its energy is expected to get swallowed by a much stronger system Thursday. Sometimes however the "appetizer" is the best part of a meal and the snow Wednesday combined with the relative lack of strong winds could make it the best powder day of the week.

I am happy to report that the alterations to the forecast are relatively small. The calm between the two storms is moved to Wednesday night as opposed to Wednesday during the day. Snow will then re-commence Thursday morning and then become heavy during the morning hours. The low level push of warm air that is expected to rotate northwestward from the open waters of the Atlantic all the way to the mountains of Vermont is still expected to arrive during the day. The advantage of elevation will prove very critical and warmth at the surface should be shallow enough to minimize the impact of rain above 1500 feet. In fact, the consensus of data suggests very little rain at these elevations even though low lying ares are likely to get wet Thursday evening and Thursday night. Winds will increase and become pretty ferocious later Thursday and will generally come from the east.

Model data suggests that drier air will work to lessen the intensity of precipitation Thursday night. As this is happening temperatures will begin to cool a few degrees and allow any precipitation which is falling (even in low-lying areas) to turn back to snow. The colder weather will move right up the Connecticut River Valley, certainly an unlikely source but its taking the scenic route by moving into the Mid-Atlantic states first before moving north into interior New England. By this time, the storm, which will have already "bombed" and done a loop around the New York City area, will gradually weaken. Areas of moisture will remain however and should continue impacting MRG even after a Thursday night or early Friday lull. Snow will continue at either a light to moderate intensity through much fo the later part of the day Friday into Friday night and on Saturday.

An updated breakdown of accumulations are as follows.

Wednesday: An additional foot of snow on top of the foot which has already fallen

Wednesday night: Light snow and a minimal accumulation

Thursday: Heavy snow during the morning. Snow will turn wet and may go to rain in some low lying area but should continue across much of MRG. 10-15 inches is possible.

Friday: Light and some occasionally moderate snow with 3-5 more inches

Saturday: Light and some occasionally moderate snow and another 4-8 inches

Sunday: More snow and more accumulation

Monday, February 22, 2010

Mammoth storm to bomb and stall across New England

and with it will be a wild few days of weather across not only the Green and White Mountains but all of New England, New York State and southward to New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. It is a complicated weather map to say the least but will largely be dictated by an amplifying upper trough which will evolve into a "closed low" which will position itself near Martha's Vineyard by Friday.

As of early Tuesday, snow has already made it to much of New York state but this moisture is associated with a decaying low pressure area in the eastern Great Lakes and much of it will likely fail in its attempt to reach the Vermont high country. Meanwhile a new area of low pressure will gather strength over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and move north over eastern New England. This surface feature will swallow much of the energy from the eastern Great Lakes low and push moderate to heavy snow to MRG Tuesday evening. The snow will accumulate significantly and should provide the mountain with its best powder day in weeks with somewhere in the vicinity of a foot by first tracks time Wednesday.

This initial burst of snow however results from a storm which is not even likely to deepen beyond 1000 mb as it tracks through eastern New England; in fact the storm will begin to lose its potency as another far more dynamic system begins to take shape just behind it over the Atlantic. This new storm will deepen very rapidly thanks largely to the full backing of upper level support approaching from the west. It will also have the necessary baraclinic ingredients of much colder weather approaching from the west mixing with the relative moist warmth of the Atlantic. The result will be an all out explosion near the New England coast and a low pressure area which may eventually deepen to near 980 mb (Valentines Day '07 levels). This second and more dynamic system will give us a little head fake in its initial north-northeast movement but will ultimately turn north and then retrograde west as it gets sucked into the closed upper low mentioned in the opening paragraph.

We should see the snow Wednesday lessen its intensity for a time as this new storm consolidates its power and then the high drama begins. Models have given us some conclusive evidence regarding the snow through Wednesday but what happens after that remains somewhat uncertain. The newly released high resolution NAM and the two most recently released GFS runs allow this storm to deepen and move west with such ferocity, that a "warm tongue" from the Atlantic Ocean literally slices through interior New England allowing a second round of snow to become rain across valley locations and perhaps parts of the high country as well. It is very hard to fathom but it would not be a meteorological impossibility given such a storm. It would be very similar in fact to the February 10th set up as rain prevailed across the Boston area while snow was falling in locations much farther south like the nations capital. In this instance, rain could be falling in some of the valley areas of Vermont Thursday while snow is falling in New York city. This however is just hypothetical and since this is an occluding storm the effect of elevation will work in MRG's favor. The European model is also suggesting a more favorable outcome with the storm and its "warm tongue" much farther north and much of the state remaining safely in the snow zone.

So with a bit of information overload in the above paragraph the boiled down details would appear as follows. The lighter snow late on Wednesday would become much heavier snow Wednesday night and early Thursday. This should allow for another round of epic turns Thursday morning at the very least. During the day however temperatures could climb and snow could turn either very wet at the base or turn to rain. If the European model wins the argument, snow would simply continue at varying intensities. Once the storm undergoes this occlusion, we will see sporadic lulls but much of the energy from this very impressive weather system will remain across New England through Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In addition the "warm tongue" if any does evolve will simply dissipate by Friday and we should be looking at a steady light to moderate snow through at least Friday and Saturday. The snow totals will thus be immense and the big challenge will be whether or not we can avoid the rain on Thursday.

Here is a summarized break down using first tracks time as a frame of referenced

First tracks Wednesday: Around a foot with 2-4 additional inches during the ski day

First tracks Thursday: 6-12 new inches with snow or mixed precipitation during the day

First tracks Friday: At least a few new inches, but light to moderate snow throughout the day providing additional powder

First tracks Saturday: Additional powder consisting of several inches.

Do the math here and you get some impressive totals.

Thursday will feature a lot of wind as the storm reaches its peak intensity. Winds will slacken gradually on Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the 20's Wednesday, near freezing Thursday and back in the 20's in the Friday-Sunday time frame.

And as if to prove how streaky mother nature can be, another huge amplification in the jet stream is likely during the middle of next week leading perhaps to talk of another big storm or at least some additional powder. This would be in the early days of March.

Updates will be required and changes in the forecast, particularly the timing should be expected so please operate under that assumption. Other than that, I appreciate all the interest and all the emails. I apologize for not responding to some but appreciate the comments nonetheless.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

It's time to get a little bold and predict a huge week of powder at MRG !!!

It will take some time to evolve but the potential has never been bigger this winter season and by the end of this week will either be camping out at MRG for first tracks or very let down if somehow things fail to come together again. It is a very complex weather situation and for a while it will be a disorganized one and the latter can certainly lead to some anxious moments. The SCWB is all about fun though and would like to try and rise to the challenge rather than hide from it.

As the weather remains quiet and even mild as the weekend wraps up, a storm system will move from the south-central Plains toward eastern Great Lakes spreading snow in a swatch from Kansas to Chicago to Ontario. This system will head northeast with some initial steam but gradually lose strength, speed and cohesiveness in Canada as it encounters the jet stream blocking at the higher latitudes. As this happens however, a large upper trough will descend upon the eastern United States allowing the right ingredients of cold weather across the middle of the country and relative warmth across the Atlantic to ripen the situation for storm development along the east coast. All indications suggest this will happen but the jury is out as to how explosive this development is. As of noon on Saturday, we did see some lose agreement amongst the major computer models to allow a system to form in the vicinity of the Delmarva Peninsula during the middle of the week, move northeast, and then boomerang back into New England as the upper trough evolves into the "bowling ball" we all hope it becomes. There are few impulses rotating through the above mentioned upper air feature and its difficult to be anymore specific except to say that a storm may very well stall in eastern New England and allow a conveyor of moisture from the Atlantic to invariably deposit snow across the Vermont high country for days. That would certainly be my plan if I had any control of it but its far too early make guarantees although it is very nice to see some hard evidence suggesting such an outcome.

In terms of timing, a decaying area of moisture from the weakening storm in the eastern Great Lakes should arrive late on Tuesday and bring some powder for the ski day Wednesday. Any such snow in this time frame will be nice but snowfall from the developing storm along the Atlantic coast (what we hope becomes a full fledged nor’easter) comes later Wednesday and hopefully continues through the end of the week and into the weekend. All I can say is that such an outcome would make for an unbelievable turnaround for much of Vermont ski country and could turn a month that has been remembered for its "Styrofoam" to a month remembered for its "finish".

There are plenty of ways to botch this developing weather situation. Anytime a storm strengthens, stalls and then occludes, warm air from the Atlantic can wrap itself around the northern flank of the storm and actually change snow to something other than snow (we will not mention this word). Storms that occlude are often laced with pockets of dry air which allow for elongated periods where no snow is falling. The storm could also fail to come together at all while the moisture initial eastern Great Lakes dies its slow death and thus allowing the great MRG 2010 snow shield to work its black magic. Fundamentally however, if the storm does indeed stall and occlude, it will be the Vermont high country which will benefit the most. Occlusions are characterized by winds at varying levels of the troposphere aligning directionally and thus making precipitation (amount and type) very sensitive to elevation. I will therefore not at all be surprised to see some surprisingly low snowfall totals across both the Champlain and Upper Valley's while the huge totals come in across both the Green and White mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire.

It is a very exciting situation to say the least. I know we have had a few that haven’t quite played out according to plan but we have to keep calling them like we see them and this one is the best I have seen through the winter season to date.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

One more chance for snow through Friday, otherwise its a bust for the ages

I have had my share of busts under-predicting snow amounts at MRG although its funny, it somehow goes unnoticed. I think the most important thing is to just get the powder which of course we really haven't done and thus the busting has certainly not gone unnoticed. All that said, "tempers running a little high" remained for the most part in good fun and this audience remains the best audience anyone could blog for. The lack of powder has allowed this snow drought of ours to take on a life of its own and one can't help but to be a little superstitious if it helps kill the MRG snow shield. One would think it would then be wise to declare the week a total loss and regroup. In truth however, there is one more impulse that could be the catalyst for a bit of snow Thursday night into Friday. If by Friday evening we are still measuring a dusting to an inch then it will then be prudent to fess up to what will be a very lousy forecast.

Moving on to the weekend, we should see snow shower activity on Friday (and hopefully it will be lots of activity Friday) subside to flurries on Saturday. We should also see some intervals of sun and given the higher February sun angle this should allow temperatures to reach or get very close to the freezing mark. We should see the existing snow soften as a result by Saturday afternoon and more of the same for Sunday as similar weather conditions prevail.

Next week looks very promising as of now although I am very scared to call it such. We have had a few successive runs of the European model take a storm from the central Rockies, and move it to the Atlantic Coast. The model does show the storm taking the all important turn north and then stalling again somewhere in extreme eastern Quebec. This would be a very encouraging result since not only would the storm deposit some much needed powder across the mountain but the pool of instability associated with its upper air support would sit across the interior northeast allowing for terrain induced snow during the middle of the week. The American GFS model is farther south and is indicating less snow from this system but at the same time does not shut us out. The hypothetical in question would have Monday as a dry and tranquil day, Tuesday powdery and Wednesday and Thursday potentially powdery as well. Lets just be careful for the time being to not get overly optimistic. Snow droughts are funny and this one has certainly proven to have a bit of teflon so the SCWB will respect it until its over.

Looking farther ahead, it appears we will be in for a round of some late season winter chill. I was expecting a blast of cold a bit earlier in the period but we now have some good indications that the cold will be strongest late next week and into the weekend following what we hope to be several days of snow. If you have been watching any of the Olympics, Lyndon State's own and long time weather channel anchor Jim Cantore has illustrated the western ridge quite well with some fancy graphics. Such a ridge is the fuel behind the PNA and allows the pipeline of arctic cold to open and ultimately delivered for much of the eastern United States.

That is it for now. Lets think snow and think about it long and hard !!

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Storm gives us the ole right hook but we are not done and neither is our prediction

Tempers seem to be running a little high based on some emails I have gotten but the call of 1-2 feet was a fairly loose prognostication meant to span a few days and given such a time we may live up to some of these original expectations. Watching Connecticut, Massachusetts and southern Vermont outperform MRG is frustrating but as this storm continues to push northward and stall, it will provide some us with some long awaited dividend payments before making a final farewell. As I pointed out, the atmosphere will remain relatively moist through much of the lower troposphere and there are two upper level impulses, one which should pass early Wednesday and another Thursday night which will provide the boost necessary for some snow across the high country. I know the forecasts appear pessimistic but this situation is elevation sensitive and the next few days will feature limited amounts of accumulating snow in the valley locations. The mountains, particularly across the northern half of the state should perform modestly and over a foot of new powder by early Friday is still a completely reasonable expectation (so long as we are talking about areas above 1500 feet).

Sunday, February 14, 2010

1-2 feet of powder over the next few days...

is worth two posts in one day if it breaks the back of the current snow drought. I was a little light on details on the last post since I don't like missing my plane but I will try to make up for it with a second post that includes some accumulation numbers and some timing.

This is a system rich with upper air dynamic support but a weaker on moisture particularly compared to some of the southern branch monsters to hit the Mid-Atlantic in recent weeks. Nonetheless, it will grab some a limited chunk of Atlantic Moisture on its New England approach and track just west of Boston. This was a key shift in the expectations which only occurred within the last 24 hours or so. The shift allows moisture to spill westward to the Green Mountain chain and for snow to begin around daybreak on Tuesday and continue at a steady pace throughout much of the day and into the evening. The American Model has had several consecutive runs now where around a foot of snow would fall Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Other data suggests a bit less. All the data does show lingering moisture in the wake of this storm capable of producing several more inches of snow with the help of any kind of upper air catalyst. This will be interesting to watch because the atmosphere will need a bit of a boost to turn unstable late this week but such a boost could do huge things for the northern half of Vermont, at least over the high country. The headline of the post would be a rather conservative estimate if you catch my drift (no pun intended).

A burst in the PNA index should lead to a few days of more serious New England cold probably sometime next weekend. A burst of cold could lead to another burst of snow or could end a long duration of snow shower activity which could persist for a few days. The general "blocking" in the pattern will largely remain in place however meaning organized systems will have a tendency to track to our south and the rain/snow line will prefer to set up over the Florida/Georgia border as opposed to the Vermont/Mass border like it did with the most recent storm.

Overall this is a major positive development for us and could lead to the epic week for snow we have all been waiting for.

Clipper to make the sharp left turn and break the back of our powder drought

This very innocent looking weather system currently spreading snow across portions of South Dakota will take a very parabolic path across North America and thanks to a huge insurgence of upper air support, it will make a very needed turn to the north and deliver the powder day that we have long been waiting for. Before I move on to the details we have to give a shout out to Vermont's own Hannah Kearney from Norwich who provided us with an exhilarating performance in the women's moguls at the Vancouver Olympics. Although many MRG loyalists may not ski bumps competitively, we can certainly appreciate how technically challenging they can be, especially after a back flip. It was a lot of fun to watch her win the gold last night and do so "on the road" against the home favorite Jenn Heil who herself was pretty dazzling.

Now moving on to the weather related items of the post since we do have a storm to discuss and some important changes in the overnight model data that has us in some powdery goodness by Tuesday. The storm will impact many of the big city locations as its energy transfers itself across the West Virginia mountains to the Atlantic Coast. At that point it will use the combination of the Atlantic Ocean and its upper air dynamic support to turn north and turn negative. The "turn negative" part refers to the maturation of this winter storm and specifically its ability to thrust its moisture westward across the Vermont and New Hampshire high country. The consensus of models had moisture close but generally showed a rather limited period of precipitation for the mountain. The two overnight runs of the American GFS model have shifted this storm northwest and are tracking the storm across eastern Mass, quite a shift over the past 48 hours. There remains some uncertainty about the actual track and some lingering indications of an Cape Cod track which and thus lower accumulations. My preliminary guess is for snow to begin during the morning Tuesday and continue through much of the day and into the overnight yielding several much needed inches for the mountain.

Snow from the storm will then be followed by snow from terrain enhancement and this should continue through Wednesday before tapering to flurries by Thursday and Friday. It should remain cold through the weekend and into next week. More details on the long range to follow in the coming days.

Friday, February 12, 2010

Monday's clipper hits the big cities with more snow and tried to make the turn north

Until then however it will be mainly dry and seasonable with temperatures reaching the high 20's and dropping to near 10 at night. Some flurries are possible throughout the weekend but the boundary layer instability is lacking for any big terrain induced snow. Meanwhile the latest city get blasted with snow is Dallas-Fort Worth with almost a foot of record breaking snow. This means some powdery turns down the grassy knoll if anyone is up for it.

The next system worth watching is a potent clipper which will dive southeastward into the U.S. in very aggressive fashion. This is a strong piece of upper level energy and once again it is being forced underneath "the block". It will thus be difficult to gain access to this moisture as it once again brings additional snows to the same big cities that have already gotten lots of snow. It will make the turn north Monday and bring snow into parts of interior New England and possibly as far north as MRG Monday night. Its a stretch to say the least to expect any big powder out of this but we need to stretch during these tough times.

With El Nino weakening and the PNA turning positive by late next week we should see more activity from the polar jet and less activity from the southern branch. The southern branch, although unkind to us in recent weeks, is normally the home-run hitter while the polar jet can provide us with the nickle and dime events. We are happy with nickle and dimes at this point and should get a few of these events late next week and into the weekend. We shouldn't expect much but a few inches here and a few inches there can begin to break the snow drought. We also can continue to forecast a lack of rain and persistent cold weather through most of the remaining part of the month so whatever falls should stay on the ground for a few weeks.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Megalopitan part three means a bigger base at Capitol Hill than at MRG

Perhaps a few turns down those long steps could make for a powder day. Although I would seem to beat a dead horse with these references to snowfall at another geographical location, one has to appreciate the statistical magnitude of the Mid-Atlantic snowfall this season. I have experienced many winters in this location and although you might think MRG is in the midst of a bad snow drought, there are many winters in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington D.C. where snowfall is less than 10 inches for the entire season. This winter however will feature 3 feet of snow in a week, an epic amount even for those of us skiers that like to maintain high standards when it comes to snowfall. If you can't take it anymore you could make the 9 hour drive to Ski Liberty near the Mason-Dixon line. This pathetic looking hill attracts mostly urbanites but check out the snowfall report.

I am green with envy !!

So Megalopitan part III has indeed shifted its track ever so slightly to the north and will allow for some light snow to cover most of the southern two thirds of Vermont. It will be difficult to make more than an inch out of what falls and most of what falls will be in southern New England. The days prior to the holiday weekend appear to have a shallow amount of boundary layer instability and this should allow for persistent flurries but it will be tough to produce any more than an inch or two out all this by the holiday weekend.

The next system appears to be polar driven as the southern branch has shown signs of a late winter fade which makes sense since El Nino has also begun to fade. This clipper system however will have to contend with our "infamous block" and will thus dive southeastward bringing its limited moisture into West Virginia before attempting to make something of itself along the Atlantic Ocean. This again will be a difficult set of circumstances for us and although one can't completely rule out powder in the Sunday/Monday time frame it is looking less likely by the day. The weekend as a whole should be winter-like with temperatures in the low 20's by day and single numbers by night. It will be unstable enough for clouds and windy enough for the wind-proof shell but that is about all I can say about the upcoming holiday weekend. It will not however be a rain-out and for these small things I can be thankful.

More flurries and snow showers are possible in the early next week time frame as another re-enforcing shot of chill arrives across the eastern United States. Temperatures in Vermont will be very tolerable and statistically be characterized as normal. The most interesting development in the longer range or specifically the later part of next week is the development of a positive PNA as a contributing element to an already very blocked high latitude jet stream pattern. The PNA has really been the last missing link for the current pattern to turn from slightly cold to very cold. The PNA moving to the positive allows the arctic pipeline to open and the bone chilling cold to come. For us here at MRG, we can also hope that the shifting of the ridge to a slightly more westward location might allow some of these big east coast storms to make a northward turn, if we are lucky enough to get a few more.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Frustration reaching a SCWB high as models shift Wednesday's system southward

Frustrating because we need the snow, frustrating because this storm looks like a beast and frustrating because we seem to be locked into favorable pattern that is yielding dry results. It is similar in many respects to late February of 2003 which saw a cold but dry blocking pattern lock itself across the northeast sending weather systems well to our south. It is very agonizing but it is reality.

It would be a bit early to completely close the book on the weather system Wednesday. Like i mentioned in the last update it will get a huge injection of upper air support from the polar branch of the jet as it moves northeast out of the southern plains Tuesday. This normally would be a sweet situation for us here at MRG but "the block of death" continues to reign supreme on the weather pattern. I have completely underestimated its influence on northern New England so far and I want to be cautious as to not do it again. Normally blocks are good, but this one is centered a bit too far to the south and our jet energy has been forced well to our south and has been unable to turn northward even after some explosive interaction with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. Models are now suggesting Wednesday's system may suffer a similar fate. It will intensify upon interacting with the Atlantic Ocean and slam the New York city area and southern New England with some big snow. It will struggle to push northward however and will likely track south of Long Island and south of Cape Cod before moving out into the open waters of the Atlantic. This is typically not a optimal track for big northern New England snowfall. The precipitation shield can extend well into Vermont but the heaviest snow stays well to the south of MRG. The track of this storm can still shift north and we need about 100 or so miles to get into some decent snowfall but the trend is not our friend at this point and thus the tone of this update has had a less than positive ring to it.

This "block of death" will nonetheless prevent any rain and will keep temperatures below the freezing mark for about 99 percent of the next two weeks taking us through the presidents day holiday. There are no weather systems on the horizon for next weekend at this time but there are indications of some instability and any weak disturbance could allow for a light accumulation of snow. The next organized system will probably have a chance at impacting the region some time around the 17th or 18th of the month. I know there are lots of folks who head to the hills this week so I will try to keep the updates coming but I myself have a busy week ahead so I will need some understanding.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Our government might have a big national debt but they are getting all the snow

and the cleanup from all this snow will certainly not help balance any budget. This storm, although a monster, and one of the most powerful winter storms I have seen hit the Mid Atlantic, will not help us here at MRG and we will have to enjoy a rather quiet weekend of weather and little if any fresh powder to ski in. Interestingly the wall of snow verses no-snow will establish itself right across New York city making that forecast nightmarish for the weather forecasters down there. For Washington D.C. it will be another historic snow in a historic year for snow since the winter will likely go down as the snowiest ever.

MRG can expect chilly temperatures although certainly nothing intolerable. Lows will bottom out near zero and afternoon temperatures will approach the 20 degree mark with the help of some sunshine. Winds will start the weekend on the lighter side but increase by the time Sunday rolls around, a day which should feature wind chills below zero along with some limited sunshine.

The most promising looking weather system in what ? a while at least will be the talk of the town early next week. It is a weak southern branch system that will get a big boost from energy diving down from Canada. It will in the end help to re-enforce a vigorous east coast trough and in the end bring some arctic chill deep into the south again. Most importantly however, it does appear capable of bringing moisture deep into New England and if all goes well blow up along the New England coast and prove to be a major powder producer for us. This hypothetical event would arrive Wednesday and persist into Thursday and it will follow a very long stretch of unusually dry weather. The storm may get caught in the maritime trap thus allowing enough moisture to wrap around back into northern New England and enhance the terrain induced snow machine during the end of the week which sets the mountain up nicely for the holiday weekend.

The more general view of the weather map and weather pattern has block in the jet stream of incredible size and magnitude across eastern Canada and much of Greenland. This will again allow the NAO to enjoy a long trip down into the depths of negativity. Such a feature will greatly reduce our chances for rain but can still deflect would be weather systems to our south much like what the weekend "bomb" is doing. It is still a favorable pattern with snow coming from terrain induced events at the very least. Its approaching "prime-time" at MRG and things are looking very "up" as the NAO goes "down".

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Another Noreaster in the making but will its moisture be out of our reach ?

As we near another anniversary of the great "Blizzard of '78" we might recall (I unfortunately do not) how incredibly stormy that weather pattern was. The storms were lined up one after the other and were burying the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. with some amazing snowfall totals. Another such pattern appears to be upon us, one of the stormiest I have seen since the inception of the SWCB for sure but we at MRG are begging to have something to show for it. As of now it has not been much. We have had a few nice storms, lots of glancing blows, some terrain induced fluff but we are certainly deserving of better particularly in a pattern such as this. As of now we continue to have a consensus of model data which is taking another mega-storm to our south. Such an event would be another huge hit for the I95 Megalopolis's but will be of little consequence in areas north of the Mass border. We have watched another cycle of model runs guide this ever-threatening looking noreaster just slightly farther to the north but we have a ways to go. Quite frankly I am sick of hearing all the newscasters suggest what a nuisance these storms are for the big cities. Bring them here where they belong and let the east coast get rain!

The problem fundamentally is that the dominating blocking feature in the jet stream is too far south and its expansive influence will have a drying effect on northern New England since jet energy has no choice but to travel well south and well under the blocking. It is such a powerful storm that the game is far from over. We are down by a few runs in the 7th inning but can the game is not out of reach yet.

In addition, the storminess will continue as I mentioned and the cold weather will be re-enforced in a big way across much of the eastern United States. Another storm during the early to middle part of next week will bring us another chance for some much needed powder before we turn sharply colder later in the week. Another update will come in a day or two but until put your snow shovel away for the season as a way of earning some karma.