Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Thursday, April 5, 2007

Winter returns and will give MRG a true Easter grand finale !!!

And a grand finale it will be for both the mountain and for the 06-07 edition of the Single Chair Weather Blog. Sorry for the less than frequent updating but the uncertain status of the mountain gives little incentive for continuous updates (although the weather has provided incentive enough). The general themes from the update a week ago were very much on the ball although I freely admit that it was almost shocking to see snow fall through much of the day yesterday when a few days prior it looked like a 45 degree rain was almost certain. Thus the forecast for this past Wednesday was first class bust. This is another example of how the war between warm vs cold and rain vs snow is fought on different battle lines every year with different coefficients and different variable inputs. In a final analysis, the cold and snow has won many victories in 2007 compared to the few if any won in 2006.

Cold in April can mean big things for the New England high country
The skinny on the weekend is for winter-like cold and terrain induced snow which will continue sporadically through early next week when at that point the seasonal snowfall will be very close to average thus finishing off our incredible 2007 comeback. For a minute here let me just rave about what can be accomplished when cold weather combined with deep upper trough settles favorably over Vermont in April. Instability just thrives in April and the reason is this. The sun angle is obviously higher providing more hours of daylight and more time to warm the earth's surface. The middle and upper level layers of the atmosphere are slower to respond to the seasonal changes and thus we have a climatologically more unstable period (warmer at the surface, colder aloft) in the spring and a likewise more stable climatological period in the fall. It is the same concept behind the severe weather season in the plains when tornadoes are the most frequent and most destructive. It may sound confusing and thats because like many things in life it is a relative game.

1-2 additional feet and a few powder days
So with that little tangent fully exercised I can continue with a forecast. It must be prefaced however the rapidly becoming famous "subject to bust" disclaimer which should automatically apply to terrain induced snow events since they are so tricky to predict accurately. With the cold weather now becoming firmly entrenched the big question now becomes when and how much terrain induced snow will fall. I looked at as many things as I could Thursday morning and decided that the snow should fall heaviest Thursday (the time of this update) and Thursday night and then again beginning late Saturday through Sunday and Monday. The period beginning Friday and ending early Saturday appears to be the time frame where the region will be in between the two jet amplifications. I think this translates to a forecast where heavier snow showers Thursday and Thursday night taper to flurries Friday, Friday Night and early Saturday before snow showers re-intensify later Saturday and persist through Sunday, Sunday night and even Monday. Yikes ! Say that 3 times fast ! The powder days, and they will be powder days by the way given the intensity of this very impressive April cold, given this forecast will be Friday, Sunday and Monday. Snowfall has already totaled close to 10 inches as of midday Thursday and I am conservatively expecting an additional 1-2 feet by late Monday. 6-12 of these inches may very well fall by first tracks time on Friday.

If we can convince the powers that be at MRG to stay open later than Easter Sunday, there could another big easter egg discovery courtesy of mother nature. It is a bit early and medium range computer models are not exactly aligned as of yet but the possibility of a mid to late week storm exists producing snowfall of the more synoptic (as opposed to the fluffy terrain) variety.

With that I will sign off for the season. If your heading out this weekend dress warm. The forecast may say 30's for the valley locations but temps will be substantially colder on the mountain (20's). Thanks to all the readers for the interest in both the blog and skiing at MRG. We will ramp it up again for another season late this upcoming fall. Until then, enjoy the remainder of spring and upcoming summer.

-Joshua Fox
Single Chair Weather Blog


matt said...

This was exactly what I was hoping to read, LET IT SNOW!!!!

p.s. if MRG does close, sugarbush reopened castlerock so there should be some good skiing after the weekend.

And of course, it is tuckermans season as well.

Keep up the good work Josh!

Morgan W. Brown said...

Thus far during 2007 we received what became known as the "Valentines Blizzard" in mid-February, then last month what became known by some as the "St. Patrick's Day Blizzard".

Although it did not land on the exact day, would it not be close enough that this most recent blizzard to hit the region could become known -- at least by some --as the April 2007 Nor'-*Easter*?

Mike said...

Thanks John. This blog was a favorite resource for me this season. Your stoke helped get me to the MRV on Tuesday night Feb 13th...enough said.

John said...

Josh, as a snowboarder who rides Jay and Stowe, I would like to thank you for your insight into the local weather.
You were right on most of the time and when you were wrong it seemed to be in our favor.
Thanks, Hope our paths cross some day. JTD

John said...

Thanks Josh.
You fill a void here in Vermont where the local weather "experts" don't really predict, they report after the fact.

Have a good summer! Till next December.


ricardo said...

thanks for a great season of forecasts.

Prosen said...

Its time to start posting again. I need you to bring me hope!