Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Friday, December 19, 2008

Sunday night dump will be an early X-Mas gift

And the snow which has begun as of Friday afternoon will turn early Saturday very powdery and I would thus recommend to our loyal MRG skiers to avoid too much in the way of holiday cheer, get up early tomorrow, and get to the mountain before the 6 or so inches gets skied off. I know 6 inches seems garden variety enough but the weather which results from this weather pattern will prove erratic so when the powder does come it would be best to appreciate it.

For my part, I am especially appreciative of what is to come Sunday. It will mark a temporary break in the trough west/ridge east regime and will allow a storm to send moisture our way from two directions. It will be the Altlantic Coast portion of the storm which will ultimately assume the primary role in weather making and snowfall which will begin later Sunday will become heavy Sunday night and ensure the most powdery day of the season on Monday. Upper level dynamics supporting the storm will move over the region early Monday and encourage snow of the more terrain induced variety during the morning. There is some debate on finer details of the storms actual track. Specifically, whether or not this storm tracks east of or west of Boston and this 100 mile uncertainty could make the difference on where the corridor of heaviest snow occurs. An east of Boston track would have the storms heaviest snow in New Hampshire. Either way however snowfall totals will be healthy and will range between 8 and 20 inches by late in the day Monday. Sorry for the big range but I am far more certain of the event itself as opposed to specific snowfall at least as of now.

The fresh supply of cold air which is currently maintaining a very firm grip on northern Vermont will quickly turn stale by Christmas day in spite of some very cold ski days Monday and Tuesday. As a consequence there should be some concern of mixed precipitation for the 3rd part of our 3 punch combo. Remember this is still a rather tricky overall regime and though we have sidestepped a few potentially thorny scenarios, there will be additional challenges ahead. The Christmas day event may be one of them although it is very close. The pattern between X-Mas and New Years is also tricky and may at some point include a 1-day mild stretch of weather and a rain/ice event. Flatten the eastern ridge a bit more than what is currently being indicated and the result could be drastically different as this weekend is turning out to be.

No comments: