In search of the lost cold - extended version

In short we are continuing to get really hurt by jet stream level warmth in the mid-latitude Pacific. It continues to be one of the biggest features on the globe and it continues to haunt MRG and surrounding Vermont encouraging frequent warm-ups, rain events and an inability to build an early season snow-pack. These struggles will continue through the holidays thanks largely to the Pacific issues and the Arctic Oscillation which will remain mostly positive for the next two weeks.

The next few days will remain mostly below freezing, at least in the high country. By Thursday however, another push of mild weather will precede what appears to be a rain event. A better track might allow for a period of snow with this system but the Great Lakes aggregate continues to be warm relative to average, 7-10 degrees warmer than average in fact and that often induces low pressure centers in the center of the country to track toward the Great Lakes and thus bring milder weather ahead of the track and deep into New England. We will find some lost cold behind this system, a legitimate shot of arctic air in fact by next weekend and the coldest weather of the season so far. The Ensembles beyond this time frame however are not painting a pretty picture however. Specifically one that still includes the above-mentioned features. I would thus guess that although we may see some snow between the 17th and 19th of the month we are likely to see another warm-up prior to the holidays