There were some logistical changes and notes that were left unmentioned in the SCWB's preseason commencement. First, I think the new twitter timeline up on top is a little "noisy" and I prefer the old timeline that was used last year. Twitter seems to have cracked down down on the use of third party apps on Blogger sites leaving me little choice. We could eliminate the timeline entirely but I actually like the idea of it and will work to clean it up a bit if I can. The "favorability index" has been traditionally explained at the beginning of the year but I always get questions throughout the season regarding the index so I will leave the explanation on the right side of the blog. Plenty of readers have also suggested building a glossary. I have unintentionally ignored all those requests though it's a great idea and I may work to create one this year.
Winter has arrived in Vermont and snowflakes are flying up and down the spine of the Green Mountains. The pattern is being anchored by a powerful high latitude blocking structure near the Aleutian Islands along with a smaller one in the northern half of Greenland. This has allowed a broad area of cold to settle across Canada and finally make an entrance into the U.S. during the Thanksgiving holiday. The cold will provide the region with a healthy taste of winter and it should persist through the week. High terrain such as Mad River Glen should generally see temperatures remain below freezing for most of the upcoming week which might be normal by late December but is still a bit unusual in late November.
There are about 3 different disturbances throughout the upcoming week that are capable of providing at least flurries and at most a light accumulation of snow. A more organized storm system will exit the eastern Rockies and move east Sunday. This system will have a difficult time phasing with the various pieces of aforementioned and weaker polar disturbances and as a result, much of the moisture with this storm may stay to the regions south. These things do have a way of changing however and we will keep watching. Were it to happen, significant snowfall would occur this Tuesday the 27th, but the chances are low right now.
The chill will erode very slowly during the early part of December and the more medium range ensembles suggest a 2-4 day spell of warmer than average temperatures during the first full week of month. This time of the year, it could translate into a thaw and perhaps some rain before winter-like temperatures return. Throughout this period, the negative NAO-AO pairing will remain in tact and should promote a quick return to colder temperatures and additional chances for snow after December 5th.